Post#50 » by dagger » Thu Oct 5, 2023 9:29 pm
This fight over something as abstract as an unaccountable analytics department is perfect for Atkins. We're all falling into the trap. It gets Atkins in particular off the hook for a flawed roster. The Jays barely made it into the playoffs, lost more games to +.500 teams than they won. They had well above average pitching, but a roster of overpaid zombies who couldn't hit their way out of a wet paper bag with runners in scoring position. They were a lot worse against good starters, but as they were able to blast bad starters and relievers, the media in particular kept claiming the team was going "to break out" any time now. In fact, they were exactly what they are - a bunch of decent but over-rated hitters. They also were incapable of changing or adapting as the season went along. They were the same free-swinging, fence-targeting bunch, and yet the Jays didn't even have a single guy with 30 homers. Guerrero and Matt Chapman were my poster children for this, although Bo could really be as undisciplined as anyone. I often wondered what sense of the strike zone any of these guys had when they couldn't lay off a pitch in the dirt a foot outside that even Angel Hernandez would have called a ball. After the all-star break, Chapman hit .205/.307./357/.664, and September was his worst month (yes, I know, the finger). He had a 28% K rate for the season and probably was closer to 30% if you deduct April. He's a competitive, focussed, high IQ kind of guy but it doesn't translate at the plate. Now Vlad seems less competitive, less focussed - I won't guess about his IQ but he may have a big head and the wrong genetics - I mean, his Dad was as undisciplined at the plate as they come but was gifted enough to overcome it, maybe Vlad isn't.
So, people can rage on about the analytics guys, about Schneider, but in my mind, this team was exactly what it looked like, not what we might have thought it ought to be or would be
What would I do? I'd actually keep Schneider on at least for the start of next season. If the offence didn't betray him as badly as it did, the Jays would have overcome his mistakes, none of which were on him alone (I mean, Mattingly is bench coach, Walker is pitching coach, it's not like they didn't have input).
I mean the real tell about pulling Berrios yesterday was that no one in the organization felt this lineup could overcome a one or two run deficit. It was a statement about the pitiful lack of clutch hitting, and that this wasn't a slump or fluke thing, it was exactly who they are,
I'd fire the batting instructors and strategist. If someone in a uniform is going to be accountable, it has to begin Guillermo Martinez and Hutchins. They didn't change how anyone of the roster approached hitting, and it''s not like this team didn't have big droughts last season either.
I'd fire Atkins because I have a philosophical difference with him. He has shown twice now that his efforts at achieving a balanced lineup have failed, whether that was balance offence/defence, or left/right. Undoubtedly, he'll consider trading one or more of our top 10 prospects to plug a hole or two, and that will just prolong his failure and our disappointment. Teams like Houston, Atlanta, Los Angeles Dodgers have shown that the key to sustained success lies in drafting/signing and then developing really good talent and bringing it to the major league level. That way, they can allocate free agent money smartly, or trade prospects, to achieve optimum results, sort of like the icing on the cake, not the cake itself. When they can rob another team of a Mookie Betts, they might deviate a bit from the pattern, but the trades usually end up being one-sided in their favour. That worked out because it's LA, and Betts was a year from free agency yet pre-disposed to staying in LA as an FA. And the Dodgers ate half of David Price's remaining salary.
The way Atkins operates, the Jays will be a mid-level treadmill team forever. That likely suits Rogers and placates the media. A full on rebuild would be unthinkable, but they aren't going to pull a Padres/Juan Soto stunt of throwing the kitchen sink at the very best under-control talents that come on the trade market. How did that work out for San Diego? Now, SD reportedly wants to trade Soto.
Would I trade Vlad? No, I want to see if someone different as batting coach can get through to him. I'm not re-signing Chapman, Merrifield, Belt or Ryu. Springer in untrade-able. I might bring back Kiermaier, Hicks and Cabrera. I'm agnostic about Biggio and Espinal, though I lean to getting rid of one of them. One or both of Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger ought to be given a fair chance to make the team, no service time BS. Ricky Tiedemann has to build up his innings, but if he looks ready, no service time BS. Considering how the hitters failed to deliver on power, I'd be happy to swap in some higher BARISP lower down in the order, or in the second spot in the order. (And yes, since it's only Ted Rogers' money, I'd at least make a competitive offer for Ohtani. So much money can be carved off the roster this winter, why not take the ultimate fling, especially since he seems likely to stay in S. California.)
2019 will never be forgotten because FLAGS FLY FOREVER
