2024 Minor League/Prospects Discussion Thread

[Schad]

He has literally made one start above short-season ball. It's a bit early to proclaim him ready to be a major league starter. Hell, for kicks, here are the performances of all the pitching prospects in the top twenty each year from 2018-2020):

Nate Pearson: got hit pretty hard and struggled with his command.

Jesus Luzardo: had a 2.51 ERA in Las Vegas, one of the most unforgiving environs in the majors. Has been okay, but not great, to date. League-average or thereabouts.

Mitch Keller: good (but not spectacular) numbers in the upper minors, inconsistent major league results.

Casey Mize: great minor league numbers, just plain bad in the bigs to date.

Michael Kopech: got hit hard in his few pre-injury starts, though his stuff was great.

Mike Soroka: he's really good.

Brendan McKay: okay, but got hit pretty hard.

Sixto Sanchez: was solid before getting injured.



But Manoah has great stuff! Yeah, all of those guys do. And all of them were better regarded prospects. And yet, with the exception of Soroka, their initial returns ran the gamut from 'fourth starter' to 'sub-replacement'.

I'm hopeful that Manoah will be a good pitcher. But ye gods let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

[polo007]

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[dagger]

Id give Manoah about a couple handfuls of starts at triple A. If he continues to look good, I'd bring him up. Theres no point wasting bullets in triple A.

If he keeps pitching anything close to the way he did last night (which obviously is not easy to project), I'd anticipate he'll be up by July. No point in wasting bullets and no point in keeping the guy at a level where he completely overmatches opponents.

There's that, and working with Pete Walker is no small thing. Our current rotation beyond Ryu, Ray and Matz is pretty much a disaster. Stripling is what I feared when he was acquired in what to me was a huge overpay - a really good prospect for someone who wasn't going to offer much. After Stripling, Roark was a flop and is gone. Hatch is still on the IL. We're basically into openers, which in turn will harm a bullpen already being overworked. And there aren't nearly enough off days in the coming weeks to paper over that weak rotation. I would have been cool with re-signing Tijuan Walker, he was open to returning, and he's doing well with NYM. I understand the risk of rushing prospects, but in the history of baseball, some of those moves have paid off. Bringing Pearson first, then Manoah, may not be huge risks. They may also be necessities short of a trade, or this team will dog paddle around .500 all season.

[dagger]

He has literally made one start above short-season ball. It's a bit early to proclaim him ready to be a major league starter. Hell, for kicks, here are the performances of all the pitching prospects in the top twenty each year from 2018-2020):

Nate Pearson: got hit pretty hard and struggled with his command.

Jesus Luzardo: had a 2.51 ERA in Las Vegas, one of the most unforgiving environs in the majors. Has been okay, but not great, to date. League-average or thereabouts.

Mitch Keller: good (but not spectacular) numbers in the upper minors, inconsistent major league results.

Casey Mize: great minor league numbers, just plain bad in the bigs to date.

Michael Kopech: got hit hard in his few pre-injury starts, though his stuff was great.

Mike Soroka: he's really good.

Brendan McKay: okay, but got hit pretty hard.

Sixto Sanchez: was solid before getting injured.



But Manoah has great stuff! Yeah, all of those guys do. And all of them were better regarded prospects. And yet, with the exception of Soroka, their initial returns ran the gamut from 'fourth starter' to 'sub-replacement'.

I'm hopeful that Manoah will be a good pitcher. But ye gods let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

That's an exercise you can cherry pick either way.

For example, Chris Sale. 13th overall pick by the White Sox in 2010. He pitched in four games in A ball, was promoted to AAA and pitched in seven games, then promoted the same year to the White Sox. So his minor league career consisted of 11 games in relief from June to early August 2010. He was used in relief, went 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA. In 2011 he broke camp with the major league team and was used entirely in relief, then transitioned to a starter in 2012 and ended up sixth in Cy Young voting that year.

So Manoah, who has been used as a starter since he was drafted, and is being stretched out to do up to seven innings - he threw 80-something pitches in his start on Thursday - has that trajectory he can follow. If the team wants to be cautious, they can use him in the pen and as a sixth starter, which we will surely need at some point soon.

Aaron Nola was a seventh overall pick in 2014. He made five starts that year in A+ ball, was promoted to AA by August, then AAA to start the following season and was promoted to the Phillies in July 2015, was a rotation starter until late September when he was shut down on an innings limit.

Presumably, the Jays would have an innings limit on Manoah and Pearson, especially Manoah, at whatever level they pitch, so it begs the question of how much value he would get staying in AAA if he shows mastery of that level.

I also think there is a risk of undervaluing two months spent at the alternate site last summer. We don't know how many innings he threw in intrasquad or simulated games, but it likely wasn't nothing. Two months of intensive coaching have a developmental value that shouldn't be dismissed. The other thing with Manoah is that he has a major league mentality. It doesn't sound like he'd be awestruck, which is always a risk with a young pitcher - you bring a kid up, he's shaking in his shoes, gets battered and his confidence takes a big hit. That doesn't sound like Manoah at all. So let's keep an open mind. His next game may be a bust, and the clamour will die down. But if he establishes the kind of track record which says in 4-6 weeks if not sooner that he is too good for AAA, then giddy-up let's go.

[Schad]

That's an exercise you can cherry pick either way.

I didn't cherry-pick. I literally looked at every pitching prospect from the top 20 in the past three years.

Aaron Nola was a seventh overall pick in 2014. He made five starts that year in A+ ball, was promoted to AA by August, then AAA to start the following season and was promoted to the Phillies in July 2015, was a rotation starter until late September when he was shut down on an innings limit.

Yeah, Nola threw 171 innings in the minors. And Sale, beyond coming up as a reliever, was on a Hall trajectory prior to injuries. Sure, if Manoah's a future HOFer, he's probably ready now. He probably isn't, though.

Presumably, the Jays would have an innings limit on Manoah and Pearson, especially Manoah, at whatever level they pitch, so it begs the question of how much value he would get staying in AAA if he shows mastery of that level.

I also think there is a risk of undervaluing two months spent at the alternate site last summer. We don't know how many innings he threw in intrasquad or simulated games, but it likely wasn't nothing. Two months of intensive coaching have a developmental value that shouldn't be dismissed. The other thing with Manoah is that he has a major league mentality. It doesn't sound like he'd be awestruck, which is always a risk with a young pitcher - you bring a kid up, he's shaking in his shoes, gets battered and his confidence takes a big hit. That doesn't sound like Manoah at all. So let's keep an open mind. His next game may be a bust, and the clamour will die down. But if he establishes the kind of track record which says in 4-6 weeks if not sooner that he is too good for AAA, then giddy-up let's go.

Again, it depends on why someone is too good for the minors. If he's just throwing FB/SLs by people, that's great but it's not going to necessarily be a winning solution in the majors. The question is: can he throw three pitches effectively? Can he consistently command his fastball and at least one secondary pitch? Because those are the determining factors, and those are hard questions to answer in a handful of starts.

[Lateral Quicks]

With so many players falling off in their early 30s these days, we're going to see the league get younger. Hot prospects are going to skip more levels and start their big league careers earlier than in the past, kind of like Kirk. Also, pitchers are breaking left and right. If we have one that's really good and isn't broken, why not use him in the bigs?

I'm in the camp that if the brass thinks his stuff will play and he has the maturity, Manoah should be in the bigs very soon.

[dagger]

Again, it depends on why someone is too good for the minors. If he's just throwing FB/SLs by people, that's great but it's not going to necessarily be a winning solution in the majors. The question is: can he throw three pitches effectively? Can he consistently command his fastball and at least one secondary pitch? Because those are the determining factors, and those are hard questions to answer in a handful of starts.

It will take several more starts to establish what he can do consistently, but the returns from the first outing suggest he is or can be shortly more than a two pitch pitcher. From a Sportsnet interview the day after.

Manoah says his changeup was excellent and he got Ks and GB outs with it.

"The heater was really good," said the six-foot-six Manoah about Thursday's outing. "I was able to throw the heater on both sides of the plate, and that kind of just opened up everything else. The slider was really good -- early in the count and late in the count. The changeup was pretty devastating, as well, to righties and to lefties, to get some ground balls."

The discussion around Manoah doesn't revolve simply on when he'll be called up, but also in what capacity. The prospect is currently seen as a two-pitch righty, with a slider and the reliable four-seamer, which generated some talks about him as a good bullpen option.

But the Florida native disagrees.

"Two or three of my strikeouts last night were on the changeup," he said. "I think I was able to get about three or four ground-ball outs off the changeup as well. And they weren't just the lefties. ... So that pitch is right where it needs to be, man. The development is there, the confidence is there."

Manoah can also count on the occasional sinker in his arsenal.

"It's distinctive, the difference between my sinker and my four-seam. So, even though people want to ring it up as just one pitch, just one fastball, it definitely is a different feel for a hitter, having that ball running in on their hands and things like that.

"So, being able to mix that with the changeup, I think it's a pretty good mix I got going right now. Just gotta continue to develop it, focus, and throw it in the right spots at the right time."

[dagger]

Nice work on the weekend by Adam Kloffenstein and Rafael Ohahsi. Ohashi was apparently a 2019 July signing out of Brazil for 10K, but his signing was only announced recently and previous references to him used a different Brazilian naming convention, so if you never heard of him before.... He was perfect in three innings, batters couldn't square up his FB. There's a bit of video of his form as you scroll down this report.

https://futurebluejays.com/2021/05/10/down-on-the-farm-5-9/

[dagger]

Nice work on the weekend by Adam Kloffenstein and Rafael Ohahsi. Ohashi was apparently a 2019 July signing out of Brazil for 10K, but his signing was only announced recently and previous references to him used a different Brazilian naming convention, so if you never heard of him before.... He was perfect in three innings, batters couldn't square up his FB. There's a bit of video of his form as you scroll down this report.

https://futurebluejays.com/2021/05/10/down-on-the-farm-5-9/

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[ItsDanger]

I'd expect Manoah up by end of the month. The control demonstrated from spring to AAA suggests he's very close. Obviously for him to stick in rotation, its the changeup that will determine that.

[ItsDanger]

They need to fix Pearson's head movement on pitch release. He can't locate the fastball at all. And this should be easiest type to control. Major red flag.

[Metallikid]

Nice work on the weekend by Adam Kloffenstein and Rafael Ohahsi. Ohashi was apparently a 2019 July signing out of Brazil for 10K, but his signing was only announced recently and previous references to him used a different Brazilian naming convention, so if you never heard of him before.... He was perfect in three innings, batters couldn't square up his FB. There's a bit of video of his form as you scroll down this report.

https://futurebluejays.com/2021/05/10/down-on-the-farm-5-9/

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They spell his name two different ways there. Ohashi sounds Japanese.

[Schad]

I'd expect Manoah up by end of the month. The control demonstrated from spring to AAA suggests he's very close. Obviously for him to stick in rotation, its the changeup that will determine that.

I mean, we're talking about 13 total innings between spring/AAA. 13 innings where he hit six batsmen, heh.

Just to benchmark this: in 2019, Trevor Bauer led qualified starters with a 2.1% plunk rate. With his new pinpoint command, Manoah has hit 13% of the batters he has faced in preseason/AAA. Walk rate isn't the only thing one ought to look at when judging a pitcher's control.

[dagger]

I'd expect Manoah up by end of the month. The control demonstrated from spring to AAA suggests he's very close. Obviously for him to stick in rotation, its the changeup that will determine that.

I mean, we're talking about 13 total innings between spring/AAA. 13 innings where he hit six batsmen, heh.

Pearson has been sent back to AAA.

Barker, though not my cup of tea, suggests he'd promote Manoah if he has a great start against Rochester on Wednesday, especially if it includes more great control and FB command. Now, if it were up to me, in such an event, I'd still give Manoah a few more starts at that level, but if he doubles down tomorrow on his great first start, I'd suggest that regardless of what you or I feel, Schad,"further resistance is futile."

[Schad]

Pearson has been sent back to AAA.

Barker, though not my cup of tea, suggests he'd promote Manoah if he has a great start against Rochester on Wednesday, especially if it includes more great control and FB command. Now, if it were up to me, in such an event, I'd still give Manoah a few more starts at that level, but if he doubles down tomorrow on his great first start, I'd suggest that regardless of what you or I feel, Schad,"further resistance is futile."

Barker's an absolute moron, though. He was a better major leaguer than a commentator, and he was a sub-replacement major leaguer.

And the Jays might call Manoah up. It would just be a significant mistake. There's this silly pattern where we declare prospects to be oh-so-ready based on small sample sizes and hand-waving anything that indicates that they aren't ready, and then declare them to be busts a month later, and you'd think that at some point we'd learn, but nope!

[The_Hater]

Pearson has been sent back to AAA.

Barker, though not my cup of tea, suggests he'd promote Manoah if he has a great start against Rochester on Wednesday, especially if it includes more great control and FB command. Now, if it were up to me, in such an event, I'd still give Manoah a few more starts at that level, but if he doubles down tomorrow on his great first start, I'd suggest that regardless of what you or I feel, Schad,"further resistance is futile."

Barker's an absolute moron, though. He was a better major leaguer than a commentator, and he was a sub-replacement major leaguer.

And the Jays might call Manoah up. It would just be a significant mistake. There's this silly pattern where we declare prospects to be oh-so-ready based on small sample sizes and hand-waving anything that indicates that they aren't ready, and then declare them to be busts a month later, and you'd think that at some point we'd learn, but nope!

I absolutely do not miss Barker’s nauseating southern drawl coupled with his 1950’s baseball analysis on the main broadcasts.

[polo007]

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[bluerap23]

Is Mareno the best of the catchers?

[dagger]

Is Mareno the best of the catchers?

At this stage of his development he is. The bat is solid, defence is apparently starter potential. He just has to show he can handle higher level pitching, call good games when they let him, etc. Adams is the other prospect catcher on the 40 man roster. He has power, but also swing and miss.

And Moreno was just one half of the story last night for NH. Woods Richardson pitched five innings. Hitless, scoreless through 4, gave up a solo homer to lead off the fifth, and then struck out the side for a total of 8K.

[polo007]

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