PLAYOFFS: Wild Card Series Game # 1: Mariners @ Blue Jays - Fri Oct 7 4pm EST

[s e n s i]

Mad Max gave up 4 bombs today so could be worst lmao

and the cards blew a two-run lead in the 9th. there is some solace in knowing we're not the only dejected fanbase tonight.

[Raps in 4]

Every game today was an upset. I guess the Rays-Guards technically wasn't an upset, but I think most people expected the Rays to win given their experience and knack for winning.

[SharoneWright]

Literally everything that could go wrong in that game went wrong...

Our inside-pitches hit batters..
Our check-swings got accidentally hit by their inside pitches counting as strikes..
Our base hits happened with 2 outs...
Our foul balls landed just IN-bounds instead of out of play..
Our leadoff hitter got nailed by a worse HBP than their leadoff hitter...
Our bootable tricky choppers ended up as double plays(!!!)..
Our strike zone wasn't exactly their strike zone..
(Our power hitter hit everything weakly on the ground..)

[vaff87]

Was at the game and the loud crowd understandably just died after the Suarez/Raleigh hits and never came close to recovering. Felt like that really hurt us and helped Seattle (in addition to Castillo just being on the entire time).

I also don’t particularly like the matchup tomorrow of this team against Gausman given his reverse splits and Seattle’s plethora of good RHBs. We are in trouble.

On the other hand, we have line up full of righties and Robbie Ray gave up 28 home runs to righties this year.

Also, I wouldn’t have wanted to sit where you sat. Just because I’m not a huge fan of heights.

[vaff87]

That's what I was afraid of... our young, swing-for-Mars-on-every-pitch hitters being overwhelmed by a good pitcher.

Manoah wasn't sharp, but he kept us in the game. The offense simply needs to be better.

This is just a myth. We had the highest batting average in the majors, and the 5th lowest strikeout rate. The idea that we swing for the fences all the time is just totally false.

[Randle McMurphy]

Was at the game and the loud crowd understandably just died after the Suarez/Raleigh hits and never came close to recovering. Felt like that really hurt us and helped Seattle (in addition to Castillo just being on the entire time).

I also don’t particularly like the matchup tomorrow of this team against Gausman given his reverse splits and Seattle’s plethora of good RHBs. We are in trouble.

On the other hand, we have line up full of righties and Robbie Ray gave up 28 home runs to righties this year.

Also, I wouldn’t have wanted to sit where you sat. Just because I’m not a huge fan of heights.

I’m less worried about the hitting Robbie Ray part, I think that can be done (although the Jays are now at 18 consecutive scoreless playoff innings in that dome dating back to 2016 which I was reminded today at how similar this game was to the one that ended the season against Cleveland).

I don’t like the Gausman/Mariners matchup much at all though with Julio/France/Suarez. But then again, I liked this matchup for Manoah today too and he couldn’t command his FB whatsoever for an entire inning. You never really know with this kind of sample size.

And I’ll be back in the 500s tomorrow although not quite as high. The height is fine; it’s the time it takes to get out of those seats into the concourse and out of the stadium once the game ends that bothers me the most.

[RalphWiggum]

The 18 consecutive scoreless innings part is a city thing not a team thing. There's not even a reliever on this roster that was on the 2016 team so I'm not worried that we're just running out the same guys who have a history of failing in these spots.

Aside from booting a bunch of balls yesterday went about as bad as it could've. I'm usually Colonel Negativity when it comes to Toronto sports but I really feel good about today's game. We'll score some runs and Gausman won't put us in a hole out of the gate.

[Hottie McShotty]

That's what I was afraid of... our young, swing-for-Mars-on-every-pitch hitters being overwhelmed by a good pitcher.

Manoah wasn't sharp, but he kept us in the game. The offense simply needs to be better.

This is just a myth. We had the highest batting average in the majors, and the 5th lowest strikeout rate. The idea that we swing for the fences all the time is just totally false.

It's not a myth. We've been mashing on average to poor pitching. I'd like to see what our avg is against good pitching.

[vaff87]

That's what I was afraid of... our young, swing-for-Mars-on-every-pitch hitters being overwhelmed by a good pitcher.

Manoah wasn't sharp, but he kept us in the game. The offense simply needs to be better.

This is just a myth. We had the highest batting average in the majors, and the 5th lowest strikeout rate. The idea that we swing for the fences all the time is just totally false.

It's not a myth. We've been mashing on average to poor pitching. I'd like to see what our avg is against good pitching.

So does everybody. Nobody hits good pitching.

How about this, we scored 10 runs off Gerrit Cole this year in 18 innings. We scored 9 runs in 10.1 innings this year vs Shane Bieber. We scored 6 runs in 8.2 innings off Zack Wheeler. We scored 10 runs in 18.2 innings off Luis Severino.

Regardless, nobody in baseball consistently hits good pitching. Why this needs to be explained to you is beyond me.

[Hottie McShotty]

This is just a myth. We had the highest batting average in the majors, and the 5th lowest strikeout rate. The idea that we swing for the fences all the time is just totally false.

It's not a myth. We've been mashing on average to poor pitching. I'd like to see what our avg is against good pitching.

So does everybody. Nobody hits good pitching.

How about this, we scored 10 runs off Gerrit Cole this year in 18 innings. We scored 9 runs in 10.1 innings this year vs Shane Bieber. We scored 6 runs in 8.2 innings off Zack Wheeler. We scored 10 runs in 18.2 innings off Luis Severino.

Regardless, nobody in baseball consistently hits good pitching. Why this needs to be explained to you is beyond me.

Keep banging your head. Maybe that will knock some sense into you. Your explanations don't make sense. Good hitting teams will find ways to hit good pitching and win big games. The Jays’ offence was the problem in Game 1 loss to the Mariners. This team has underperformed all season long. Don't let the seasonal stats fool you.

[Lateral Quicks]

That's what I was afraid of... our young, swing-for-Mars-on-every-pitch hitters being overwhelmed by a good pitcher.

Manoah wasn't sharp, but he kept us in the game. The offense simply needs to be better.

This is just a myth. We had the highest batting average in the majors, and the 5th lowest strikeout rate. The idea that we swing for the fences all the time is just totally false.

It's not all bad. We've got a few guys on the team (Kirk and Springer come to mind) that can put together good at-bats against elite pitching. But I've watched a lot of this team this year, and my overwhelming impression is that a lot of our guys just turn to mush.

I'd be interested to see a histogram of runs scored per game of this team compared to others. I think this would show this offense laying a surprising number of eggs given its overall numbers and playoff positioning.

[Lateral Quicks]

We scored 775 runs this year, which works out to 4.78 runs per game. Here is a quick manual count of games where we scored less than the average:

0 runs: 8 games
1 run: 11 games
2 runs: 19 games
3 runs: 26 games
4 runs: 21 games

So that's ~40% of our games where we scored 3 runs or less, and ~52% where we scored 4 runs or less. We won 57% of our games overall.

I can't draw any conclusions from just looking at one team... will try looking at a few teams in a spreadsheet later if I have time.

[Schad]

We scored 775 runs this year, which works out to 4.78 runs per game. Here is a quick manual count of games where we scored less than the average:

0 runs: 8 games
1 run: 11 games
2 runs: 19 games
3 runs: 26 games
4 runs: 21 games

So that's ~40% of our games where we scored 3 runs or less, and ~52% where we scored 4 runs or less. We won 57% of our games overall.

I can't draw any conclusions from just looking at one team... will try looking at a few teams in a spreadsheet later if I have time.

Our run distribution is actually less variable than most. The other good AL offenses:

The Yankees:

0: 12.
1: 25.
2: 25.
3: 16.
4: 13.

48% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 56% 4 or fewer.


Astros:

0: 11.
1: 14.
2: 20.
3: 27.
4: 21.

44% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 57% they scored 4 or fewer.


Mariners:

0: 12.
1: 17.
2: 28.
3: 16.
4: 18.

45% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 56% they scored 4 or fewer.


Of the four teams, we had the fewest number of instances where we were shut out, were held to 1 run less than the other three, same with 2 runs, same with 3 runs, same with 4 runs.


This again gets back to the seemingly unshakable myth about this team: that we're a high-variance, feast-or-famine power team. When in reality we led the majors in batting average (comfortably, I might add), and to the extent that we have any issues offensively, it's that we should be hitting more home runs. We just had a bad game at a really inopportune time.

[Madvillainy2004]

We scored 775 runs this year, which works out to 4.78 runs per game. Here is a quick manual count of games where we scored less than the average:

0 runs: 8 games
1 run: 11 games
2 runs: 19 games
3 runs: 26 games
4 runs: 21 games

So that's ~40% of our games where we scored 3 runs or less, and ~52% where we scored 4 runs or less. We won 57% of our games overall.

I can't draw any conclusions from just looking at one team... will try looking at a few teams in a spreadsheet later if I have time.

Our run distribution is actually less variable than most. The other good AL offenses:

The Yankees:

0: 12.
1: 25.
2: 25.
3: 16.
4: 13.

48% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 56% 4 or fewer.


Astros:

0: 11.
1: 14.
2: 20.
3: 27.
4: 21.

44% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 57% they scored 4 or fewer.


Mariners:

0: 12.
1: 17.
2: 28.
3: 16.
4: 18.

45% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 56% they scored 4 or fewer.


Of the four teams, we had the fewest number of instances where we were shut out, were held to 1 run less than the other three, same with 2 runs, same with 3 runs, same with 4 runs.


This again gets back to the seemingly unshakable myth about this team: that we're a high-variance, feast-or-famine power team. When in reality we led the majors in batting average (comfortably, I might add), and to the extent that we have any issues offensively, it's that we should be hitting more home runs. We just had a bad game at a really inopportune time.

The Padres who are a waaaaaay more feast or famine than us put up a 7 spot on one of the best pitchers in the world. It's a small sample size (1 game) and Castillio had an all world pitching performance.

The Mariners didn't exactly mash us. They didn't didn't hit our low leverage relievers at all.

[Schad]

And the Rays, who none of us wanted to see and considered strong favourites over Cleveland, are currently 3 for 42 at the plate in their series. The good and bad of baseball is that it's highly unpredictable, and doesn't lend itself to easy narratives.

[RalphWiggum]

And the Rays, who none of us wanted to see and considered strong favourites over Cleveland, are currently 3 for 42 at the plate in their series. The good and bad of baseball is that it's highly unpredictable, and doesn't lend itself to easy narratives.

The idea of losing a series to Tampa was horrifying. In hindsight maybe they were the better opportent?

[Schad]

And the Rays, who none of us wanted to see and considered strong favourites over Cleveland, are currently 3 for 42 at the plate in their series. The good and bad of baseball is that it's highly unpredictable, and doesn't lend itself to easy narratives.

The idea of losing a series to Tampa was horrifying. In hindsight maybe they were the better opportent?

Impossible to say. Short playoff series are just crazy.

[vaff87]

It's not a myth. We've been mashing on average to poor pitching. I'd like to see what our avg is against good pitching.

So does everybody. Nobody hits good pitching.

How about this, we scored 10 runs off Gerrit Cole this year in 18 innings. We scored 9 runs in 10.1 innings this year vs Shane Bieber. We scored 6 runs in 8.2 innings off Zack Wheeler. We scored 10 runs in 18.2 innings off Luis Severino.

Regardless, nobody in baseball consistently hits good pitching. Why this needs to be explained to you is beyond me.

Keep banging your head. Maybe that will knock some sense into you. Your explanations don't make sense. Good hitting teams will find ways to hit good pitching and win big games. The Jays’ offence was the problem in Game 1 loss to the Mariners. This team has underperformed all season long. Don't let the seasonal stats fool you.

The Jays were beaten yesterday by a pitcher that had his A+ stuff. He was throwing 100 mph with a 4 seamer that had 4 inches more horizontal break than his normal 4 seamer. His sinker had 2 more inches of horizontal break than usual, and his change up had 3 inches of horizontal break more than usual. And the spin rates on all of his pitches were also well above his seasonal averages.

It takes a lot of restraint on my part not to insult you. Espec7after you called me a moron.

[vaff87]

We scored 775 runs this year, which works out to 4.78 runs per game. Here is a quick manual count of games where we scored less than the average:

0 runs: 8 games
1 run: 11 games
2 runs: 19 games
3 runs: 26 games
4 runs: 21 games

So that's ~40% of our games where we scored 3 runs or less, and ~52% where we scored 4 runs or less. We won 57% of our games overall.

I can't draw any conclusions from just looking at one team... will try looking at a few teams in a spreadsheet later if I have time.

Our run distribution is actually less variable than most. The other good AL offenses:

The Yankees:

0: 12.
1: 25.
2: 25.
3: 16.
4: 13.

48% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 56% 4 or fewer.


Astros:

0: 11.
1: 14.
2: 20.
3: 27.
4: 21.

44% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 57% they scored 4 or fewer.


Mariners:

0: 12.
1: 17.
2: 28.
3: 16.
4: 18.

45% of games they scored 3 or fewer, 56% they scored 4 or fewer.


Of the four teams, we had the fewest number of instances where we were shut out, were held to 1 run less than the other three, same with 2 runs, same with 3 runs, same with 4 runs.


This again gets back to the seemingly unshakable myth about this team: that we're a high-variance, feast-or-famine power team. When in reality we led the majors in batting average (comfortably, I might add), and to the extent that we have any issues offensively, it's that we should be hitting more home runs. We just had a bad game at a really inopportune time.

It doesn’t matter how many times you present the evidence, they’re just going to ignore it. It feels like we’ve had these convos time and time again, but despite evidence of the contrary, they return the next time with the exact same narratives.

[Schad]

It's not a myth. We've been mashing on average to poor pitching. I'd like to see what our avg is against good pitching.

Let's look at the Jays against elite pitching, then. The top ten (non-Jays) pitchers by fWAR in the AL were Verlander, Ohtani, Bieber, Valdez, Cease, Perez, McKenzie, McClanahan, Cole, and Gilbert. They have an average ERA of 2.70 against baseball as a whole. Against the Jays:

Verlander - 3 ER in 6 IP.
Ohtani - 5 ER in 13 IP.
Bieber - 9 ER in 10.1 IP.
Valdez - 3 ER in 6.1 IP.
Cease - 0 ER in 6 IP.
Perez - 1 ER in 6 IP.
McKenzie - 2 ER in 6.2 IP.
McClanahan - 5 ER in 17 IP.
Cole - 10 ER in 18 IP.
Gilbert - 7 ER in 13 IP.

So, in 102.1 IP against the best pitching the American League had to offer, the Jays hung an ERA of 3.96 on them. More than a full earned run per nine better than the rest of baseball. That isn't merely good, it's stellar. 3.96 happens to be the league-average ERA this year, so the Jays quite literally made the best pitchers in the AL look average all year.

As is quickly becoming a theme, your assertion has no basis in reality.