The Jays offseason ahead in 10 questions

[dagger]

My view of offseason issues and my take on how they might be answered. Feel free to add your own answers, or questions. According to Spotrac, the Jays full season payroll ended up at $179 million, and with signing bonuses for draft picks and international FAs, came up to $197 million. Virtually everyone is signed or still eligible for arbitration for next season except Phelps, Stripling and Jackie Bradley Jr. The Jays have a $3 million option on Bass which seems a no brainer. But with the payroll situation as is, you wonder about retaining some of the arbitration candidates like Tapia or Biggio when there are cheaper options on the 40 man roster. There is a bit of prospect talent on the edges to work with - Moreno and Lopez on the 40 man roster are the ones most likely to dislodge a veteran. But pitching wise in particular, most of the prospect talent is further away, most likely a mid-season promotion than an obvious candidate to make the team in spring training.

1. Is John Schneider brought back?
Probably, there seems to be a groundswell in his favour, and I'd be down with it as well. But as ESPN says, management might be tempted by a big name and there are some out there. I just think with the support Schneider has from both young guys and older vets, it's a 99% chance he's back. He's certainly cheaper than those big names would be, and that's not a small thing when you consider that there is alway a budget and since Schneider isn't a big deficiency, the money is better spent on the roster.

2. Is Guillermo Martinez back? Other coaches?
If management needs to make a sacrifice to the BB gods, Martinez might be it. The team has a lot of offensive talent, and overall run production isn't an issue, and this roster might not be any more productive with another batting coach. They are pretty free swinging, and any strategic change might be hard to implement. But is there a way to goose the offence to extract another few wins out of close losses to win the division? The question boils down to whether a change in the offensive approach might make the team less prone to long collective slumps and in individual terms, might it help bring Vlad back to an MVP level? That brings me to Q3.

3. Do we get Go Go Guerrero or Groundout Guerrero next season?
2021 Guerrero was better than 2022 Guerrero, not that the latter is a bad player, but all of his production numbers were down and his groundball rate was one of the worst in the league as was his GIDP. Getting him closer to 2021 Vlad would be huge. But maybe he needs a different voice to help him do it?

4. Is Bo Bo a No Go next season, or back with more of the same?

Bichette is a very divisive guy for the fan base. Sometimes a great hitter and decent fielder, sometimes a bull in a china shop with poor plate discipline, error prone in the field and even destructive to teammates (yesterday was not the first time he chased tweener fly balls he should have left for the incoming outfielder). He's probably back because the up and coming shortstops in the organization are either far from ready or better suited for 2B or 3B. If' be surprised if there is a top tier starting pitcher with control available in a trade for him (or a catcher), but I'd give up some offence (i.e. Bo) for such a guy. Wheras Vlad might have a higher level he can get back to, Bo is basically Bo, unlikely to be better or worse next season than he is right now.


5. Is Teo a trade candidate considering his approaching free agency?
He caught fire at the right time, is a really nice number 4 or 5 batter, but I can't see the team wanting to pay his free agency price for 2024 and beyond. He's a decent fielder when he puts effort into it, which isn't all of the time. Again, if the answer to #4 is that Bo is back, is the answer to #5 is Teo gone for pitching help, and as with Bo, the answer probably depends on the quality of what they can get for him. The organization isn't heavy on outfielders, it would be nice to have a serious contender for a CF starter so Springer could be moved to RF. The best centrefield prospect the team has might be Dasan Brown, who finished very strongly with Vancouver, but he's probably a candidate for 2024 not 2023.

6. Do the Jays trade a catcher for help elsewhere? Yes. I think we've covered that in the catching thread. But that assumes Atkins doesn't overplay his hand, waiting for a deal lopsided in Toronto's favour. The time is now, and getting even 90 cents on the dollar for Jansen at a position of greater need would be okay with me.

7. How do the Jays fill out the rotation? 1. Manoah. 2. Gausman. 3 ? 4. Berrios 5. ? Stripling is an FA, and if I were a betting man, I'd guess he leaves, not because he is inherently unhappy, but with the way free agent pitching deals often go, it's likely too big a risk for a team that already bet big on Berrios, blew It on Kikuchi and has one more big dollar season left with Ryu. If they are desperate to keep Stripling, perhaps they can persuade Rogers to pay up for him with the knowledge Ryu is off the books after next season. I still think that's a long shot. As for other options, Mitch White is not someone to bank on, they have to give Kikuchi a good spring training run, but there is no one ready for April in the farm system. Buffalo was a starter wasteland. There are potential future starters at New Hampshire - Tiedemann, Robberse and Robbins - but none of them are strong candidates to take a starting job at the major league level in April. More likely they become more interesting at mid-season, after building up innings at Buffalo. One long shot would be doing a Tampa, make one of the rotation spots an opener, with a couple of high load relievers going back to back, say Pearson and Hayden Yuenger, or one of those plus a White or Kikuchi. In that scenario, maybe one of those New Hampshire starters enters the picture sooner as a multi-inning reliever. The Jays wouldn't be the first team to bring a future starter to the majors first as a reliever.

8. How do the Jays bolster the pen?I'm not on the same page as many of you. I believe the Jays pen was mediocre at best and has been for years. It's good enough to get the Jays to a wildcard berth, but doesn't have enough swing and miss for a WS contender. The low leverage guys can't deliver enough clean innings, so the Jays end up using the high leverage guys too much. There are many ways to solve this including an internal option or two (like Yosver Zulelta, Nate Pearson if he doesn't shock us all and nail down a starting role). But I am a firm believer - and believe history keeps backing me up - that you can't assemble a championship calibre pen at the trade deadline. Also, the wins that slip away before the trade deadline can be the difference between winning the AL East and settling for a Wild Card. The Jays need a better full-season pen.

9. How to change the LH/RH balance in the batting order? The numbers suggest the Jays don't have a big issue with an all or almost all RH batting order. However, they might be even better if they had better left hand batters. They went most of the season with three lefties: Biggio, Tapia and Zimmer. And Zimmer couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag. Biggio was strictly a sub, when healthy. Only Tapia saw a bit more ABs because of rest or injuries to starters but also given the book on certain pitchers. Still, none are under contract yet for next season though Biggio and Tapia are still under control if they want to meet their arb price. With Merrifield on the books for next season, and able to play 2B/LH at a minimum, none of these three are a lock to be back for their D. Otto Lopez also is a cheap alternative, though an RH bat. One of the trade ideas above might yield a stronger LH bat, and there is a long-shot possibility for a prospect like Addison Barger. (Barger's power arm might make him a candidate because the team could give Chapman and Bo a couple of extra days off, Biggio just doesn't have nearly as strong an arm at 3B.)

10. Is it time to retire the HR jacket? Okay, maybe I'm sounding like the fun police but yes, hang it up for good and find a way to celebrate a wider range of achievements than home runs.

[Randle McMurphy]

1. Yes. The player clearly like him and I'm sure he's been following management's instructions just fine (which is all they apparently want in a manager).
2. Almost certainly. Can't imagine they'd change the hitting coach, they had the second best offense in baseball behind the Dodgers this year.
3. Vlad will probably be something in between 2021 and 2022 in 2023. He appears to be more of a very good hitter (Carlos Delgado) than a historically great hitter (Albert Pujols). There's nothing wrong with that, but it's best for the Jays to find that out now before paying him like the latter though.
4. Bichette is averaging nearly 5 WAR over the past two seasons. Of course he'll be back. The only question is whether the Jays target a top tier all-around SS to move him to 2B due to his bad defense (although the continued criticism for yesterday's play is completely unfounded, Springer never called him off that ball and it was falling in no man's land, he had to go for it). That would cost a ton of money and/or prospects, so it's incredibly unlikely.
5. Both Teoscar and Gurriel are definite trade candidates. The Jays really shouldn't go into 2023 with both him and Gurriel manning corner outfield positions again and not just because Springer is better suited in RF at this point in his career. They need to badly improve their defense out there in addition to their overall depth. Raimel Tapia playing as much as he did this year (including in the playoffs) is embarrassing for any team, let alone one that sees itself as a contender.
6. I'd be surprised if Jansen wasn't dealt. It's going to take a hell of a lot for them to part with either Kirk or Moreno.
7. Manoah, Gausman, FA/traded starter (maybe Stripling but probably not), Berrios, Kikuchi. On his contract, Kikuchi is almost certainly getting another shot in the rotation before Tiedemann arrives, so everyone better prepare for that inevitability now. This is easily the Jays' biggest weakness going into 2023 and not one they can easily deal with due to the bad contracts that have been handed out.
8. The bullpen needs more swing and miss. It has for years now under this regime. The Jays may finally put some money into it to change that after this collapse (due largely to being BABIP'd to death), but I doubt they will. They clearly don't believe in investing in bullpens philosophically and these guys seem to rarely change their process based on results.
9. The Jays will almost certainly bring in a left-handed hitting OF that is major league caliber in the offseason. So not Ramel Tapia, JBJ, and Zimmer.
10. The HR jacket will likely be gone in 2023, but if it is not the jacket it will just be something else.

[Raps in 4]

What I'd do:

- Fire Ross Atkins (I'd fire Shapiro too, but he's best buds with Ed)

- Fire Schneider and bring in an all new coaching staff. That includes getting rid of Walker.

- Re-sign Stripling (if he can be had on a reasonable, short-term contract; normally I'm not a fan of signing old pitchers who just had career years, but our hands are kind of tied)

- Sign or trade for another high-end starter*

- Sign or trade for 2-3 high-end relievers who can get strikeouts*

*I'd trade 2 of our 3 catchers for those pitchers.

I expect none of this to happen though and we just go into next season with the exact same roster and coaching staff. We don't have the prospects to facilitate any major trades or the ownership will to spend on filling holes. But most importantly, I don't trust the current FO to fix this mess.

[Lateral Quicks]

1. Schneider is back. A 46-28 record trumps the brutal Gausman pull. He's saying the right things about a more disciplined, fundamentally sound approach.

2. If Schneider is the guy, it wouldn't surprise me if he gets free rein to bring in his own people. I expect Guillermo is gone.

3. Go Go Guerrero.

4. If we had a real SS prospect ready to replace him full-time, he'd move to 2B. But we don't, so it's probably Bo at SS and Espinal/Biggio at 2B again.

5. I predict one of Lourdes and Hernandez will be moved. I would guess it will be Hernandez - he's slightly older, and will be more expensive to extend. He also has more swing and miss in his game, and I think we'll prioritize contact more going forward.

6. I realize it's only a 248 PA sample size, but Jansen was the best hitter on the team this year, and he's only had about two full season's worth of major league PAs. It's possible he's found something out. At this stage I'm reluctant to trade any of the catchers unless the return is there. We can get creative and find PAs for Jansen at 1B and DH, and for Moreno at 2B and in the outfield. It's not a long term solution, and it's far from ideal, but we could make it work for one more year. If a team isn't willing to pay a good price, run all three back.

7. I very much doubt Berrios is as bad next year, but even if he locks down a spot we realistically need three more starters. I view Pearson as pretty much a write off for the rotation at this point, but it would be nice if he could be healthy next year and snag a spot. With the budget already tight, I'd say we bring in one free agent and trade for another. The 6th starter will be Pearson, Kikuchi, White, or a cheap veteran swing man type (like Stripling, but cheaper). The free agent signing might be Stripling.

8. It would be great if Merryweather could rediscover his early 2021 form, and if Nate Pearson could get healthy. Those two would go a long way to fixing the pen. To be fair to Shapkins, neither of these guys panning out really screwed them. The priority for me is a proven lefty that's also effective against RHB. Mayza is solid, but you don't want him pitching in high leverage spots.

9. The replacement of Lourdes/Teoscar will almost certainly be left-handed. Biggio should get more playing time under Schneider than Montoyo gave him. Beyond that, it's going to remain a RHB-dominant lineup.

10. The HR jacket is so awkward to put on, to the point where I bet some of the guys hate it. I always worry they're going to tear a rotator cuff. It has to go. Replace it with something else.

[DelAbbot]

The only question that will matter:

Will Ross Atkins be gone?

[Raps in 4]

The only question that will matter:

Will Ross Atkins be gone?

Considering he's Shapiro's man and Shapiro is Ed's man, no chance.

[Raider917]

is there an example of a franchise that were in the blue jays situation(good hitting prospects but not much pitching depth) that made moves to even out there strengths and go on to win within a few years?

[dagger]

Here is one usually reliable estimate of arbitration tenders for the Jays. Service time in brackets

Blue Jays (13)

Teoscar Hernandez (5.097): $14.1MM
Raimel Tapia (5.020): $5.2MM
Adam Cimber (4.156): $3.2MM
Trevor Richards (4.084): $1.5MM
Bradley Zimmer (4.077): $1.3MM
Danny Jansen (4.050): $3.7MM
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3.157): $14.8MM
Tim Mayza (3.156): $1.9MM
Cavan Biggio (3.129): $2.6MM
Trent Thornton (3.073): $1.1MM
Bo Bichette (3.063): $6.1MM
Jordan Romano (3.051): $4.4MM
Santiago Espinal (2.149): $2.1MM

[Ado05]

Improve outfield defense. Ideally bring in a CF'er and shift Springer to right.

Add a #3/4 starter

Add strikeouts to the bullpen

Improve depth

Payroll is already high, so I imagine they wont be spending big in free agency. The easy guess is one of the catchers is moved to address something else on the roster.

Cant imagine Hernandez is bringing back a great return considering his lack of team control and salary. I guess he's back, and the Jays will take his production and the compensation pick. Bo is back, Gurriel gone, and one of the catchers gone.

[Fairview4Life]

Trade Jansen
Promote Moreno
Put a collar on Bo so that anytime he tries his lazy little sidearm **** throw he gets shocked
Say goodbye to Tapia
Say goodbye to Biggio
Politely ask Berrios to stop sucking

[Madvillainy2004]

I'll do my best to contribute this thread covers most if not all the major offseason talking points.

1. Personally I thought his end of the year was so bad I wouldn't. But we had 46-28 record with him was mentioned by another poster and the players all seem to love him. Managers "usually" don't swing W/L too much anyways so even a change wouldn't be all that drastic. I pray he learns how to use the bullpen in the offseaon tho.

2. The offense is amazing and I feel anyone who doesn't only watches Jays games because there are hell of a lot of teams that have way more swing and miss players, they got locked up by q Castillio pitching free and aggressive with a 3-0 lead before ge took the mound game 1. And bounced back to demolish 2021 Cy young winner Ray and put up 9 runs. This offense is good enough to win a world series besides some micro changes to help it improve (Vlad launch angle, more lefties, and less ABs wasted on the likes or Tapia, Whit, and JBJ).

3. I think we get Go Go Guerrero, some of his launch angle issues mightve been due to some problems with his wrist. He's an elite hitter tho and even if he's more Delgado than first ballot hall of famer he's gonna be a mainstay in our lineup for years to come. He's still only 23 and the amount of sluggers that have put up his numbers at his age is a very short list.

4. Bo is one of the best hitting SS of the last decade and is still very young. Now I think he should be a 2nd baseman and am fine signing a Correa type player and moving him over. (He did say he'd move for a Lindor type player in the past). But like Vlad I am happy with him being a mainstay in our lineup as well. Could work to fine tune his approach and not chase as much but part of why he's so good is his free swinging approach. I'll take the slumps and strike outs for the overall production.

4. I'm a bit biased towards Teo but I'd keep him over Gurriel. Gurriel is a weird hitter and doesn't have any power right now. Teo struggled with a injury and had awful slump rushing back but the last 3 months looked like his Silver slugger self. They both have their issues with effort/dumb plays and a lefty that can hopefully play center will fix some of our outfield problems (mainly conserving Springer).

6 . We gotta trade one of the catchers. I might be a bit more off the wall here but I'd look to moving Kirk. I think he can get the most value for him and I'd be willing to sacrifice the bat for the potential ceiling of Moreno on both sides of the field. Another reason is I think Jansens hitting profile fits a more DH heavy role than Kirk as well. (Both are good hitters tho). One has gotta go tho there's just no room for 3 catchers on any major league roster especially with the holes we have elsewhere.

7. I imagine if we don't re-sign Stripling (personally I wouldn't) we go out and find a middle rotation starter. Have Berrios as the 3 or 4 between that. And a free for all of Kikuchi/White/Pearson (?)/ Tiederman hoever for the 5th spot. With Kikuchi having the lead track for the job. I hate it but it is what it is not much we can do with so much dead money.

8. We won't but I'd love to squeeze an arm or two out of a potential Lourdes/Teo/Kirk/Jansen trade. Swing and miss should be a priority as we got BABIP to death but this front office has never built a bullpen and took them watching it suck for 2 years in a row while trying to contend to even attempt to fix it.

9. The RH/LH thing isn't a huge deal to me but having a balance so pitchers can't zero in on a location would be nice and might raise our teams offense to a higher level. Whoever the outfielder we get to replace Teo or Lourdes will be LH I'd imagine. And I'd hope the other lefties we can bring in don't suck lol

10. Yeah homerun jacket is gone personally let the players decide tho and whatever they wanna do let them. Baseball season is long and grueling and you need levity/excitement in the pen. The "immaturity" whatever narratives surrounding the team annoy me when it's used to slight the offense when it's elite despite all the "shenanigans" in the dugout. But a slightly more serious approach from Vlad and the rest of the boys is something I expect for next year.

[Morris_Shatford]

This is likely more of a crystal ball question;
But given the current salary of the team, is it more likely the budget remains similar and any changes to the team will just be shifting dollars this winter?

[bluerap23]

Here is one usually reliable estimate of arbitration tenders for the Jays. Service time in brackets

Blue Jays (13)

Teoscar Hernandez (5.097): $14.1MM
Raimel Tapia (5.020): $5.2MM
Adam Cimber (4.156): $3.2MM
Trevor Richards (4.084): $1.5MM
Bradley Zimmer (4.077): $1.3MM
Danny Jansen (4.050): $3.7MM
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3.157): $14.8MM
Tim Mayza (3.156): $1.9MM
Cavan Biggio (3.129): $2.6MM
Trent Thornton (3.073): $1.1MM
Bo Bichette (3.063): $6.1MM
Jordan Romano (3.051): $4.4MM
Santiago Espinal (2.149): $2.1MM

I didn't realize that Romano and Espinal were arb eligible. Based on these numbers qualifying Stripling would require a $200M budget for the 26-man.

[dagger]

Here is one usually reliable estimate of arbitration tenders for the Jays. Service time in brackets

Blue Jays (13)

Teoscar Hernandez (5.097): $14.1MM
Raimel Tapia (5.020): $5.2MM
Adam Cimber (4.156): $3.2MM
Trevor Richards (4.084): $1.5MM
Bradley Zimmer (4.077): $1.3MM
Danny Jansen (4.050): $3.7MM
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3.157): $14.8MM
Tim Mayza (3.156): $1.9MM
Cavan Biggio (3.129): $2.6MM
Trent Thornton (3.073): $1.1MM
Bo Bichette (3.063): $6.1MM
Jordan Romano (3.051): $4.4MM
Santiago Espinal (2.149): $2.1MM

I didn't realize that Romano and Espinal were arb eligible. Based on these numbers qualifying Stripling would require a $200M budget for the 26-man.

There are a few on that list you wouldn't' qualify, and you might lower a couple of those with longer agreements.

[bluerap23]

Here is one usually reliable estimate of arbitration tenders for the Jays. Service time in brackets

Blue Jays (13)

Teoscar Hernandez (5.097): $14.1MM
Raimel Tapia (5.020): $5.2MM
Adam Cimber (4.156): $3.2MM
Trevor Richards (4.084): $1.5MM
Bradley Zimmer (4.077): $1.3MM
Danny Jansen (4.050): $3.7MM
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3.157): $14.8MM
Tim Mayza (3.156): $1.9MM
Cavan Biggio (3.129): $2.6MM
Trent Thornton (3.073): $1.1MM
Bo Bichette (3.063): $6.1MM
Jordan Romano (3.051): $4.4MM
Santiago Espinal (2.149): $2.1MM

I didn't realize that Romano and Espinal were arb eligible. Based on these numbers qualifying Stripling would require a $200M budget for the 26-man.

There are a few on that list you wouldn't' qualify, and you might lower a couple of those with longer agreements.

The only significant $$ on the list that won't get renewed is Tapia. Someone like Zimmer may be dropped, but his replacement will cost about the same. Definitely more incentive to trade Jansen and Biggio. Even Espinal could be replaced with a cheaper option.

Still if you drop Tapia we are still over 200 million with a qualifying offer to Stripling. At this point it looks like he is gone. Hopefully they have insurance covering Ryu.