General Blue Jays Thread: 2024 Season

[Lateral Quicks]

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My word, Barger is indeed rather jacked. Had no idea he was that big. Must have put in a lot of work in the weight room in the offseason. Between this and buying the pitch machine to improve his approach, you have to appreciate his work ethic.

[polo007]

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[Fairview4Life]

Just to make that about me, my great grandmother was a big jays fan and when she turned 100 she got a letter from the queen saying congrats on staying alive, and we also got her a letter from Kelly Gruber. She was much more excited about the Jays one.

[Duffman100]

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The lack of starting pitching depth will be what kills this season. Right now we have a high likely loss one out of every 5 starts. If Berrios doesn't rebound, that's a loss every 2-5 starts.

We lose any of our top 3 guys for even a short period of time we have seriously problem. Was really hoping we were going to sign a vet guy to eat some innings and raise those chances.

[Schad]

The lack of starting pitching depth will be what kills this season. Right now we have a high likely loss one out of every 5 starts. If Berrios doesn't rebound, that's a loss every 2-5 starts.

We lose any of our top 3 guys for even a short period of time we have seriously problem. Was really hoping we were going to sign a vet guy to eat some innings and raise those chances.

We have options, and we also have a lot of bullpen depth to soak up innings if none of the candidates for the 5th spot perform. I'm not that worried; the effects of a single bad starting pitcher are pretty significantly overstated (in the regular season, obviously; you certainly don't want one starting in the playoffs). We even had an infinitesimally better winning percentage when Berrios and Kikuchi started last year (.569) than we had overall (.568).

[Duffman100]

The lack of starting pitching depth will be what kills this season. Right now we have a high likely loss one out of every 5 starts. If Berrios doesn't rebound, that's a loss every 2-5 starts.

We lose any of our top 3 guys for even a short period of time we have seriously problem. Was really hoping we were going to sign a vet guy to eat some innings and raise those chances.

We have options, and we also have a lot of bullpen depth to soak up innings if none of the candidates for the 5th spot perform. I'm not that worried; the effects of a single bad starting pitcher are pretty significantly overstated (in the regular season, obviously; you certainly don't want one starting in the playoffs). We even had an infinitesimally better winning percentage when Berrios and Kikuchi started last year (.569) than we had overall (.568).

What's the balance vs the offense getting worse? How much of that was because offense rescuing them that we may not have as much of this season? How much of that also taxed the bullpen? (genuine questions as baseball isn't really my #1 or #2 sport)

I know most teams don't have 5 solid starters. But it does feel that they have more depth and options than we have. With Mitch White already out with an injury, it seems like it get super razor thin and we don't have much at all to buffer injuries.

Stripling at that low cost seemed like it would have been an amazing signing.

[Schad]

I don't expect the decline in our offense to be significant, if everyone performs to 2022 standards. Yeah, Gurriel and Teo are better hitters than Kiermeier and Varsho. But in improving our depth, we have reduced the number of plate appearances going to people that just are not good at hitting. Tapia, Zimmer, JBJ and Collins combined for about 700 PAs worth of hitting at a combined wRC+ of a shade below 90; Kiermeier has historically hit better than that collective.

It's a bit reductive, but one way to look at the picture from a batting perspective is:

Teo -> Belt. Teo was better in 2022. Belt has been the better hitter from 2020-2022. I'd probably give an edge to Teo on consistency, but Belt is only a year removed from being one of the best hitters in baseball (when healthy) in 2020-2021, so I wouldn't call that a major drop. Their projected wRC+ numbers are about equal, with Belt's production dependent on health.

Gurriel -> Varsho. Obviously depends on whether Varsho hits as he did last season, but Gurriel has also trended down a bit in recent years. Varsho also has better projections for 2023.

Motley collection of mediocrities -> Kiermeier. Keirmeier's the better hitter than that crew, even setting aside the defensive part of the picture.


We should also be substantially better defensively, something that will benefit our flyball pitchers like Berrios and Kikuchi. Don't get me wrong: Kikuchi's bad, and it would be better if he wasn't in the mix to start. But people vastly overestimate how much that matters. The difference between Kikuchi and Stripling, on their 2023 projections, is about 1.5 - 2 wins. And 1.5 - 2 wins is significant! Teams will pay a fair bit to get 1.5 - 2 wins. But people act as if we'll lose the vast majority of Kikuchi's starts because he gives up an extra run a game, and that simply isn't the case.

[polo007]

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[SharoneWright]

OK so Nathan Lukes.

I was just doing a rough projection of games played,, and it's obvious Whit has been given the keys to the Keystone,, so I estimated 90 games for Whit at 2nd (62 for Espi at 2nd.. who also gets 15+ at SS and 15+ at 3rd =92+ for Espi). I also gave Whit 25 in RF to spell Springer (90+25=115 for Whit).

Point is, Merrifield is tapped out. He can't be expected to back up all 3 outfielders. Do we expect Cavan to be playing dozens of games in the OF????

In our current case, if we could even pray to see 130 games from Kiermaier,, and 145 from Varsho,, that leaves 49 games for our "4th outfielder" not named Whit Merrifield to spell CF or LF.... That's a significant role on the team.

Is Lukes up for that?? What do we have in him??

[Schad]

If someone goes down, Merrifield simply moves to the outfield, and Biggio/Espinal (or potentially Barger) backfills his spot.

[ItsDanger]

The future:

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[Lateral Quicks]

I don't expect Whit will play that much at 2B. Espinal was decent last year, and will probably get most of the reps there unless his bat falls off a cliff. I expect Whit will get maybe a quarter of the starts at 2B, and spend the rest of the time in the outfield.

[rarefind]

Where in the world is Alejandro Kirk?

[SharoneWright]

I don't expect Whit will play that much at 2B. Espinal was decent last year, and will probably get most of the reps there unless his bat falls off a cliff. I expect Whit will get maybe a quarter of the starts at 2B, and spend the rest of the time in the outfield.

Ya I guess. That's about the only way to do it. I guess I'm wrong, but I really got the impression Whit was being favoured at 2nd.

At this stage, Kirk's wife needs to up the spicy food quotient.

[Raptors Realtor]

I don't expect Whit will play that much at 2B. Espinal was decent last year, and will probably get most of the reps there unless his bat falls off a cliff. I expect Whit will get maybe a quarter of the starts at 2B, and spend the rest of the time in the outfield.

I may be wrong, but my guess is it's Whit's job to lose at 2B going into the season, and that Espinal will play when outfielders need a day off or there's injuries, and Whit moves out to OF.

[Lateral Quicks]

I don't expect Whit will play that much at 2B. Espinal was decent last year, and will probably get most of the reps there unless his bat falls off a cliff. I expect Whit will get maybe a quarter of the starts at 2B, and spend the rest of the time in the outfield.

I may be wrong, but my guess is it's Whit's job to lose at 2nd going into the season, and that Espinal will play when outfielders need a day off or there's injuries, and Whit moves out there.

Wasn't Espinal the better player last year? It would be odd to see Espinal go from all-star (which, granted, was a really odd selection to me) to pure backup the next year to make room for Whit Merrifield. Which isn't to say I dislike Merrifield as a player - I actually think he's going to be a really valuable piece this year.

[Schad]

Wasn't Espinal the better player last year? It would be odd to see Espinal go from all-star (which, granted, was a really odd selection to me) to pure backup the next year to make room for Whit Merrifield. Which isn't to say I dislike Merrifield as a player - I actually think he's going to be a really valuable piece this year.

After a hot start, Espinal hit quite poorly from late May on. He might rebound, but Merrifield probably goes into camp was the more likely to get ABs.