Toronto Blue Jays (11-8) @ New York Yankees (12-7) | April 21-23, 2023

[hyper316]

Jays are quite lucky this year, 13-9 with a -8 run differential

Years past we get screwed by this

[Schad]

I disagree as I miss them both.

Gurriel is good enough to be a DH. hits high average each season. You can never have enough offense.

Unfortunately, on the Jays due to Kirk, Gurriel would likely never be full time DH and living with him on the field wasn't a great prospect. But the bat is missed. The sum total of the replacements for Gurriel's spot in the lineup will likely result in less average. Plus, the loss of Moreno with defense and potential offense. That is too much.

Gurriel isn't a particularly good hitter for a DH. His power has declined markedly in recent years, so while he was an above-average hitter overall in 2021-2022, he was below-average for what you need as a DH in order to be worth keeping around.

JD Martinez last season is instructive: Martinez was a better hitter than Gurriel in 2022, but a 119 wRC+ while DHing full-time translated to 1 fWAR in nearly 600 PAs, and a 119 wRC+ beats Gurriel's projections. As a full-time DH, Gurriel's projections have him barely clearing replacement-level, and that's if he doesn't morph even further into Slow Tapia, a contact-only hitter who doesn't walk.

[PowerPlant1]

I disagree as I miss them both.

Gurriel is good enough to be a DH. hits high average each season. You can never have enough offense.

Unfortunately, on the Jays due to Kirk, Gurriel would likely never be full time DH and living with him on the field wasn't a great prospect. But the bat is missed. The sum total of the replacements for Gurriel's spot in the lineup will likely result in less average. Plus, the loss of Moreno with defense and potential offense. That is too much.

Gurriel isn't a particularly good hitter for a DH. His power has declined markedly in recent years, so while he was an above-average hitter overall in 2021-2022, he was below-average for what you need as a DH in order to be worth keeping around.

JD Martinez last season is instructive: Martinez was a better hitter than Gurriel in 2022, but a 119 wRC+ while DHing full-time translated to 1 fWAR in nearly 600 PAs, and a 119 wRC+ beats Gurriel's projections. As a full-time DH, Gurriel's projections have him barely clearing replacement-level, and that's if he doesn't morph even further into Slow Tapia, a contact-only hitter who doesn't walk.

Hmmm. Even if Gurriel doesn't merit a successful DH by these stats: are the hitters we have to replace Gurriel better or worse than he would have been?

Tapia might be Gurriel's floor but such a decline has never occurred as of yet so that is just a wee bit of worst case focus for me to make the point. Any player has a floor although I agree with you, we don't need Tapia 2.0.

Last season Gurriel's OBP was .343. High average hitters with overall good OBP should always be valued and in the DH position, you want the high average because it produces runs much more than you want walks.

They lost Hernandez as well which means Gurriel's loss of hitting is felt more.

If Gurriel is a below average hitter by your definition, then what we have is historically a MORE below average contingent of hitters to replace him. The only better full time DH upgrade for Gurriel is Kirk and that won't happen because Kirk catches too. Therefore, even in this case, you should miss his hitting in a relative sense.

I think it is a mistake to analyze based on absolute value alone when you have to deal with the reality of actual replacements. Gurriel isn't much of a DH by these stats therefore does not mean he is not missed as a DH.

[LLJ]

Jays are quite lucky this year, 13-9 with a -8 run differential

Years past we get screwed by this

I think the differential is starting to normalize, and should be in the positive territory shortly. A lot of it has to do with the see-saw starting pitching quality early on, but when Gausman and Manoah start to come around it like in this series it should stabilize, even with the questionable relief situation

[Asianiac_24]

Isn’t Ryu coming back sometime this year as well? He would be great as a Kikuchi insurance or replacing Trevor Richards role

[Hottie McShotty]

Springer a notorious slow starter, right? Let's see when he'll start picking things up.

[Boogie!]

Springer a notorious slow starter, right? Let's see when he'll start picking things up.

Is there a point in time where springer no longer becomes the defacto leadoff guy if his numbers don't really justify it?

[Fairview4Life]

Like August 2025.

[Parataxis]

Springer a notorious slow starter, right? Let's see when he'll start picking things up.

Is there a point in time where springer no longer becomes the defacto leadoff guy if his numbers don't really justify it?

I mean, I guess in theory. But who do you put there instead? Bo and Vlad aren't leadoff types. You could maybe put Varsho there, but he needs to get his OBP up before that's viable. Chappie? I'd rather have him protecting Vlad than leading off.

[Boogie!]

Springer a notorious slow starter, right? Let's see when he'll start picking things up.

Is there a point in time where springer no longer becomes the defacto leadoff guy if his numbers don't really justify it?

I mean, I guess in theory. But who do you put there instead? Bo and Vlad aren't leadoff types. You could maybe put Varsho there, but he needs to get his OBP up before that's viable. Chappie? I'd rather have him protecting Vlad than leading off.

If springer can be a leadoff man, then chapman is actuallt a good suggestion. Not only is he faster, he has a good eye at the plate. Springer as a 4 actually makes sense where his clutchness and power can be used to drive in runs.

[hyper316]

Springer a notorious slow starter, right? Let's see when he'll start picking things up.

Is there a point in time where springer no longer becomes the defacto leadoff guy if his numbers don't really justify it?

I mean, I guess in theory. But who do you put there instead? Bo and Vlad aren't leadoff types. You could maybe put Varsho there, but he needs to get his OBP up before that's viable. Chappie? I'd rather have him protecting Vlad than leading off.

Wasn't Merrifield lead off back in KC? He can hit and steal bases

Edit: just checked 2019 when he was an all-star, he was lead off

[Asianiac_24]

If Kirk wasn’t so fat and slow, he’d be great as a lead off. Low strike out %, high OBP. If not Merrifield works.

[Parataxis]

Is there a point in time where springer no longer becomes the defacto leadoff guy if his numbers don't really justify it?

I mean, I guess in theory. But who do you put there instead? Bo and Vlad aren't leadoff types. You could maybe put Varsho there, but he needs to get his OBP up before that's viable. Chappie? I'd rather have him protecting Vlad than leading off.

Wasn't Merrifield lead off back in KC? He can hit and steal bases

Edit: just checked 2019 when he was an all-star, he was lead off

I excluded him in my thinking because he's not (currently) an everyday player. I'd really want some consistency in the one-spot.

But yeah, if he does become our everyday 2B, and if Springer loses the leadoff job, he'd be a possibility.

[Schad]

Is there a point in time where springer no longer becomes the defacto leadoff guy if his numbers don't really justify it?

I mean, I guess in theory. But who do you put there instead? Bo and Vlad aren't leadoff types. You could maybe put Varsho there, but he needs to get his OBP up before that's viable. Chappie? I'd rather have him protecting Vlad than leading off.

Wasn't Merrifield lead off back in KC? He can hit and steal bases

Edit: just checked 2019 when he was an all-star, he was lead off

Merrifield has an OBP of .311 over the preceding three seasons. The odds of Springer rebounding are much greater than the odds of Merrifield becoming a good leadoff guy again.

[Boogie!]

I mean, I guess in theory. But who do you put there instead? Bo and Vlad aren't leadoff types. You could maybe put Varsho there, but he needs to get his OBP up before that's viable. Chappie? I'd rather have him protecting Vlad than leading off.

Wasn't Merrifield lead off back in KC? He can hit and steal bases

Edit: just checked 2019 when he was an all-star, he was lead off

I excluded him in my thinking because he's not (currently) an everyday player. I'd really want some consistency in the one-spot.

Speaking of merrifield at the very least he should be the everyday second baseman. Biggio is forever doodoo and idk why he's getting consistent playing time when he's done nothing throughout his career to earn it. Just make whit the second baseman, espinal is the backup, and biggie only plays once in a blue moon when people sre hurt or need rest. But I see no point in this 3 man platoon.

[Raps in 4]

The Rays are about to face an MLB team for the second time this season. Now is our chance to make up some ground.

[Hottie McShotty]

I mean, I guess in theory. But who do you put there instead? Bo and Vlad aren't leadoff types. You could maybe put Varsho there, but he needs to get his OBP up before that's viable. Chappie? I'd rather have him protecting Vlad than leading off.

Wasn't Merrifield lead off back in KC? He can hit and steal bases

Edit: just checked 2019 when he was an all-star, he was lead off

Merrifield has an OBP of .311 over the preceding three seasons. The odds of Springer rebounding are much greater than the odds of Merrifield becoming a good leadoff guy again.

and of course you have Schad who likes to come in and argue a point all the time, or maybe he has a man crush on Springer. Who cares what his preceding 3 seasons have been like. The way i see it the last 3 years have been an anomaly with covid ravaging our world. KK is having a good start to this season and Springer has **** the bed. Doesn't hurt to swap them in the lineup and see if that triggers some more offense from the top of our lineup. But knowing this manager he probably doesn't have the balls to make a change anyways.

[Fairview4Life]

I can’t believe Schad thinks it’s a tad early to mess around with one of the best offenses in baseball by moving around one of the teams better hitters because he started the season slow. What a jerk, with his facts and figures. Bleep blorp, should act on gut feelings instead. That’s where the real accuracy is.

[hyper316]

Jays got a new batting coach right?

[Schad]

I can’t believe Schad thinks it’s a tad early to mess around with one of the best offenses in baseball by moving around one of the teams better hitters because he started the season slow. What a jerk, with his facts and figures. Bleep blorp, should act on gut feelings instead. That’s where the real accuracy is.

Yeah, we definitely shouldn't note that Merrifield is currently making the worst contact of his career, and his high batting average is almost pure luck. I'm sure he'll keep producing a BABIP near .400 while ranking in the bottom five in MLB in average exit velocity and hard hit %. Suggesting that it's entirely unsustainable is just pedantry or something.