Where the hell are our prospects?

[Duffman100]

I may be overreacting and full willing to hear reason. But it feels like all these other good teams have prospects coming up and adding value to their system and we have.... ?

I'm all for trusting FOs for a long time, giving them cycles and leeway. But I'm starting to lose faith.

[Randle McMurphy]

Orelvis is at least destroying the ball of late. Still looks like a potential star in the making if he can drop his strikeout rate some more.

[Raps in 4]

In 8 years, we've developed one MLB-level starter (who imploded this year).

We've drafted and developed some decent position players over the years, but only one truly elite player in Bo.

We currently have a bottom-10 farm system and we're not even contenders. This FO has failed miserably at building a sustained winner.

[bluerap23]

The Shatkins draft history in toronto is pretty abysmal

[dagger]

Okay, you can see this as a glass half full or empty. Some organizations are teeming with prospect - Baltimore has eight in the MLB Pipeline top 100, to our one (Tiedemann). That's depressing. Of course, many of those eight won't make out or if they do, have notable careers, but they provide a huge amount of trade fodder that can move the Orioles to the top of the East for a long time if ownership there is ready to pay the veterans acquired in those trades. (One of the reasons the Orioles have so many is that ownership allowed the team to suck horribly for a few years, giving the Birds high picks in each round. I can't see Rogers ever going that route.)

Now, with the revival of Martinez, he ought to be considered a top 100, he was one until recently, and his greatly improved management of the strike zone addresses what caused him to drop out of top 100 lists. Also, his NH teammate, Leo Jimenez, is flashing a bit of power (not like Martinez). He does have four homers at the midway mark of the season, he has a 20% K rate, and a 301 BA with an 813 OPS. The team thought enough of him to put him on the 40 man roster (he just turned 22 last month, so he's age appropriate for his level.) What really makes Jimenez interesting - and someone who ought to be considered a serious prospect - is his D, which is described as major league ready. One of these guys, or Addison Barger, is a good bet to replace Chapman next season or in 2025 because giving Chappy a long, rich new deal at age 31 seems like a bad idea. Maybe shift his money to other priorities.

What our farm system situation highlights is that there are prospects coming, but don't align with current needs. We could use more pitching, both in the rotation (unless Manoah bounces back) and bullpen. But the organization has largely failed in pitcher development. Even if you can't develop a top of the rotation guy, you ought to be able to develop more high velocity relievers, rather than have to trade for a Swanson or Pop. And you need some good young talent - at least capable of this point of being plug-short-term-holes guys - at the AAA level, and Buffalo's pitching staff is terrible for that: over-the-hill vets or tertiary prospects like Hatch who haven't worked out. I suspect they viewed Mitch White as such a guy, but having missed a whole lot of time this season, he clearly isn't ready for that and may never be steady enough. White, Hatch and Bowden Francis were acquired via trades, so we didn't even develop them out of the draft or international free agency. None of the three internally developed pitchers on the Buffalo roster - Hagen Danner, Brad Eisert and Hayden Jeunger - are ready to step in, and aside from Danner, I'm not sure they ever will.

For years, the organization has placed much emphasis in the draft and international signings on middle infielders and starting pitching. And for good reason, if they pan out, they play premium positions, good whether they make the Jays or serve as trade fodder. But some of the pitching drafted or acquired via trade has been traded off (Gunnar Hougland, Simeon Woods Richardson, Nick Frasso), or injured and never the same since coming back (Eric Pardhino). The Jays have some pitchers at AA or lower who might see the majors at some capacity, but none who are projecting top of the rotation potential or even #2 or #3. The Jays also have shied away until recently from using high draft capital or international money on outfielders, although OF Emanuel Bonilla, their big $ signing in January, could be a sign of changed thinking. They had better come up with outfielders, because three of the four guys in the outfield rotation (Springer, Merrifield, Kiermaier) are over 30.

Anyways, the picture isn't entirely bleak. There are a few guys on New Hampshire worth watching as we hit the half-way mark. It will be interesting to see if the Jays promote Jimenez and Martinez, also pitcher Sem Robberse. And Vancouver just won the first half of the Northwest League season. Prospects like shortstop John Kasevich might be ready for a promotion. There also are some second and third tier prospects who might get shoved up to NH.

One of the anomalies with the farm system this season was the extremely slow start of some of the prospects - Orelvis, Gabe Martinez, Dasan Brown, these were guys who couldn't hit their way out of a wet paper bag in April. But they are also coming around now, so even if their season stats will be a bit depressed, they could still move on up, if not this year, then next.

[dagger]

I'd add to the post above that Alex de Jesus, the trailer prospect in the Mitch White for Frasso trade, is doing rather well and adds to the depth on the left side of the infield. He hit his eighth and ninth homers yesterday, is just 21, and seems like a good candidate for promotion when the Jays move Martinez and/or Jimenez from NH to BUF.

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 65 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

De Jesus was one of the top prospects from the 2018 international class, and he started to play some shortstop after the Dodgers signed him for $500,000. He chased power at times early in his Rookie-level debut, batting .281 with a .732 OPS over 57 games, but he came on strong late. Some of that power came in 2021 at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga, where he hit 12 home runs while posting a .268 average and .834 OPS over 87 games.

De Jesus was in the middle of another nice season at High-A in 2022 when the Blue Jays acquired him from the Dodgers alongside Mitch White. While his Blue Jays debut was underwhelming over 24 games at High-A Vancouver, the club was very impressed with his maturity, as the fully bilingual De Jesus quickly bought in and became a good teammate. Toronto’s program has also helped him physically, with optimism that more power will follow at the plate.

Defensively, De Jesus can play short and third base but is likelier to end up at the hot corner, where his plus arm can make any necessary throw. He’ll need to cut down his strikeout rate at the plate, though, after whiffing 151 times in 113 games last season. If that happens alongside a power surge, De Jesus is another candidate to jump in 2023. Alongside Adrian Pinto, the Blue Jays have done a solid job of acquiring prospects in Major League trades recently.

[bluerap23]

Okay, you can see this as a glass half full or empty.

While I appreciate the thoroughness of your post and the optimism, (We do have a few decent prospects), OP’s point is that it most definitely is neither half full nor half empty. Factually he is correct. Our minor league prospect situation is, at best, in the bottom quarter of mlb, and that is being generous.

[SharoneWright]

Traded them all away.... not personally capable of litigating each and every outcome. Some are better than others... But our MO has definitely been to ditch our top prospects recently.

SWR to the Twins. Martin to the Twins. Groshans to the Marlins. Frasso to the Dodgers. Moreno to the DBacks.

*Explanation of the word "top" and Frasso: I always linked our drafting of Frasso and Palmer from that 2020 draft class. Was always WAY more bullish on Nick compared to Trent. Anyway, I had him pretty high in my mind. I guess we'll have to hope Palmer or VanEyk balances out that stupid trade for White.

Would be refreshing to see a trade where the Jays receive a Top 10 prospect from another organization.

[bluerap23]

Not sure how realistic it is for us to trade for a top prospect. That is what rebuilding teams do. It would be nice if we could develop our own prospects and have them become MLB players for our own team.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

The Shatkins draft history in toronto is pretty abysmal

they definitely need to change up their scouting staff for sure.

i don';t think any of their top picks have panned out yet other than Manoah. verdict is out on Barriera for now but their last top picks of Hoglund, Martin, Groshans, Warmoth, Zeuch, Hayes haven't turned into stars yet/ever.

[Sticks]

Shatkins gotta go, they have had more than enough time and we havent won anything and our prospect pool is bare

. We would have been better of keeping AA.

[dagger]

The Shatkins draft history in toronto is pretty abysmal

they definitely need to change up their scouting staff for sure.

i don't think any of their top picks have panned out yet other than Manoah. verdict is out on Barriera for now but their last top picks of Hoglund, Martin, Groshans, Warmoth, Zeuch, Hayes haven't turned into stars yet/ever.

The first three of those have been traded, that's sometimes how prospects work out. Manoah did work out for a year, and if we want to be optimistic, he will in the future. If you go into the second and third rounds, you see interesting picks. In 2021, the Jays drafted Hoglund (since traded) in the first, had no pick in the second, then drafted Ricky Tiedemann in the third. In round 4, the Jays drafted RHP Chad Dallas. Now, I'd bet on Dallas getting to the majors with someone. He has excelled at two levels now, and seems like a candidate for a late season promotion to AAA. His FB velocity is not tremendous - 93-95 - but apparently his spin rate is. Anyway, he pitched last night, wasn't as economical with his pitches, hit his pitch limit after 4.2, but didn't allow an earned run and K'd 6. I'd be watching him as a possible trade piece at the deadline if the Jays need major league help.

Also, it's interesting to track later picks to see if the farm system can find and develop guys who enter the draft with lesser resumes. Since the Jays don't intend to suck like Baltimore did to acquire very high picks like Ruschmann, they are going to have to find a gem or two in their underslot guys in the middle of the first 10 rounds to bolster the system and add to trade pieces. There are a few of those guys on Vancouver, which is running away with the Northwest League. For example, Alan Roden, last year's third round pick, a college 1B considered one of the best contact hitters in the draft but not a lot of HR power. He signed well under slot as I recall, he doesn't profile like the kind of prospect who will start out on any team's top 30 prospects. The Jays, however, have turned him into a corner outfielder, both LF and RF - he hasn't played a game at 1B this season -and are batting him leadoff (he has some speed, 13 SB to date). If he turns into either a useful trade piece or makes it to the Jays as even a utility player who can play LF/RF/1B, that would be an achievement given that part of his job - to help seal the signing of Barriera, Kasevich and the extra comp picks, Toman and Doughty - is already done. He's also a lefthand hitter with an 11% K rate.

This is Roden's stat sheet

https://www.milb.com/player/alan-roden-702176

[bluerap23]

The Shatkins draft history in toronto is pretty abysmal

they definitely need to change up their scouting staff for sure.

i don't think any of their top picks have panned out yet other than Manoah. verdict is out on Barriera for now but their last top picks of Hoglund, Martin, Groshans, Warmoth, Zeuch, Hayes haven't turned into stars yet/ever.

The first three of those have been traded, that's sometimes how prospects work out. Manoah did work out for a year, and if we want to be optimistic, he will in the future. If you go into the second and third rounds, you see interesting picks. In 2021, the Jays drafted Hoglund (since traded) in the first, had no pick in the second, then drafted Ricky Tiedemann in the third. In round 4, the Jays drafted RHP Chad Dallas. Now, I'd bet on Dallas getting to the majors with someone. He has excelled at two levels now, and seems like a candidate for a late season promotion to AAA. His FB velocity is not tremendous - 93-95 - but apparently his spin rate is. Anyway, he pitched last night, wasn't as economical with his pitches, hit his pitch limit after 4.2, but didn't allow an earned run and K'd 6. I'd be watching him as a possible trade piece at the deadline if the Jays need major league help.

Also, it's interesting to track later picks to see if the farm system can find and develop guys who enter the draft with lesser resumes. Since the Jays don't intend to suck like Baltimore did to acquire very high picks like Ruschmann, they are going to have to find a gem or two in their underslot guys in the middle of the first 10 rounds to bolster the system and add to trade pieces. There are a few of those guys on Vancouver, which is running away with the Northwest League. For example, Alan Roden, last year's third round pick, a college 1B considered one of the best contact hitters in the draft but not a lot of HR power. He signed well under slot as I recall, he doesn't profile like the kind of prospect who will start out on any team's top 30 prospects. The Jays, however, have turned him into a corner outfielder, both LF and RF - he hasn't played a game at 1B this season -and are batting him leadoff (he has some speed, 13 SB to date). If he turns into either a useful trade piece or makes it to the Jays as even a utility player who can play LF/RF/1B, that would be an achievement given that part of his job - to help seal the signing of Barriera, Kasevich and the extra comp picks, Toman and Doughty - is already done. He's also a lefthand hitter with an 11% K rate.

This is Roden's stat sheet

https://www.milb.com/player/alan-roden-702176

It is pretty difficult to judge a recent draft pick because we really don't know how they will do. Still guessing. If we look at the picks between 2016-2020 they hit on 2 picks Bo and Manoah. That is pretty abysmal.