STATE OF THE NATIONALS (83 Games)

[Jollay]

RECORD 36-47 (Fifth, NL East)

Since starting the year 20-15, the Nats have performed at a .333 clip (16-32). The main key to Mike Rizzo's actions since last year was upgrading the defense, and after encouraging results late last year and early this year, the Nats have become another fielding horror show. They lead the NL by far in errors. The Nats expected some growing pains from Ian Desmond in the field, but he's committed 20 errors at perhaps the most important defensive position.

Things aren't much better on the mound. Despite Tyler Clippard coming down to earth of late, the bullpen remains the lone bright area on the team (3.44 ERA, 5th in the NL). But the starting pitching (4.57 ERA, 14th in the NL) has been at best inconsistent and at worst just plain bad. And that's with the arrival of the chosen one.

The hitting has been terrible of late. The Nats have fallen to 11th in league in batting (.257), tenth in homers (69), and 13th in runs scored (337). They are third in the NL in stolen bases, but their steal success rate needs alot of improvement (11th out of 16). Can't blame Riggleman too much for that--it's pretty obvious he needs to force the issue with this team.

After making some noise early, this team is essentially eliminated from the playoffs. Strasburg is still generating alot of interest, but the team as a whole is no longer doing so. Where it once appeared that the Nats could push .500, it now seems like 75 wins could be their ceiling, and they will be sellers at the deadline.

The Nats were the third-most profitable team last year in MLB, and they stand to do even better this year because of their low payroll and the Strasburg bonanza. But the Nats really risk alienating their fanbase further if they refuse to pony up cash and re-sign Adam Dunn. It'll be hard to get anyone excited about the "progress" of a 70-win season if the Nats get rid of too much at the deadline, especially Dunn with no one ready to replace him.

[Jollay]

GRADES

CATCHING (B)

Ivan Rodriguez and Wil Nieves continue to be the teams' primary catchers, although journeymen Carlos Maldonado and Jamie Burke have filled in while Pudge was on the 15-Day DL. Rodriguez ain't batting .400 anymore, but he's still getting it done behind the plate and in the field (.306 BA, nine out of 22 runners caught stealing). Pudge is among the league leaders in hitting into double plays, but he's been invaluable on and off the field and well worth the two-year, six-million-dollar contract he signed in the offseason. The only question remains: will the 38-year old wear down as the season progresses?

Nieves has been pretty poor as the backup, batting .174 and allowing teams to have success on the basepaths against him. He is fluid behind the plate and a good receiver, but his performance needs to be better. When the light-hitting Nieves plays, the Nats cannot really rest another regular without incapacitating their offense completely.

Jesus Flores would be an upgrade, if he ever returns. But he remains on the DL and does not seem close to ready for action. The Nats seem content to let him rehab this year, anyway.

With the first pick in the draft, the Nats drafted Bryce Harper, but have already decided to convert him to the outfield. One of the reasons they could afford to do that remains Derek Norris. Ranked as high as the Nationals' second-best prospect behind Strasburg by some publications, Norris is having a tough year with nagging injuries, to include being hit in the head with a fastball. He's only batting .243 with 4HR at Single-A Potomac, but the Nats are still very high on him.

[Jollay]

INFIELD (D+)

They're not really hitting right now with the exception of Adam Dunn. They're not really fielding right now with the exception of Ryan Zimmerman (and Alberto Gonzalez). The latter fact is the more immediate problem that has contributed mightily to the Nats' recent woes.

Dunn has found a home at first. Oh he's still below average defensively, but the Nats are very happy with him despite his lack of lateral movement and inability to rescue bad throws from the dirt. Fact is, he's been almost average defensively, which is a major improvement from his time in left field. His lefty bat is almost indispensible, meanwhile (.275 BA, 17 HR). Why haven't the Nats signed him yet? 1) They're cheap and 2) They want to see what they can get for him at the deadline should they fall out of contention (already have).

Zimmerman is in a great big offensive slump (.245 in June, .182 in July), although his overall stats remain good (.286 BA, 14HR). His goofy Mercedes/Geico commercials around the DC area remain a bigger concern for the casual Nats fan than his production.

The middle infield has been a disaster. After a good start to the season for Desmond, he's been terrible in the field and mediocre at best at the plate, mainly due to a complete lack of plate discipline/patience (.292 OBP). He had four homers in 82 AB last year--this year he has the same amount of homers in 255 AB. Still, the Nats will stick with him, and Riggleman has said his goal is to get Desmond 500 AB this year. He will get the rest of this year to show improvement, and will get first shot next year regardless of performance. But if he continues to regress the Nats will go with Alberto Gonzalez short-term, and give Danny Espinosa (AA Harrisburg) a shot long-term in a year or two.

Not much to say about Cristian Guzman and Adam Kennedy at second, where they both primarily play. They both commit errors (12 between them at second), Kennedy doesn't hit (.240 BA), and Guzman doesn't hit righties all that well (.260 BA, .315 OBP). The most palatable option is Guzman, simply because the Nats need his bat, especially versus lefties. The Nats would love to move him and his eight-million-dollar salary at the deadline, but they'll likely still be paying some of it if they do.

Right now the defense is killing the Nats--and Mike Rizzo (or the cheap owners) needs to be held accountable for not signing Orlando Hudson. Hudson has three errors at second, four times less than Guzman/Kennedy. As Tim Kurkjian of ESPN said in the preseason when I asked him how the Nats should proceed, it all starts with defense and the Nats should sign Hudson. Well they didn't at the expense of a few million dollars, instead signing feebs like Chien Ming-Wang and cheap alternatives like Kennedy.

And now they're suffering.

Gonzalez continues to get more playing time simply because Riggleman realizes the Nats have no chance without solid defense up the middle. All year Gonzalez has played superb defense at third, short, and second, displaying solid range and an excellent arm. The knock on him has always been his bat, but he's hitting .288 in limited time (73 AB). It would be foolish to not give him a shot.

Riggleman, however, seems committed to a pool approach at second and short. Good luck, Jimmy...

[craig01]

Defense, speed, and pitching.

The Rays' formula starting about 4 years ago.

Rays acquired SS Jason Bartlett and 2B Aki Iwamura taking the Rays from a bottom feeder defensively to one of the best defensive play making teams in all of baseball.

Nats need to make strengthening the middle their priority this off season.

[Jollay]

Defense, speed, and pitching.

The Rays' formula starting about 4 years ago.

Rays acquired SS Jason Bartlett and 2B Aki Iwamura taking the Rays from a bottom feeder defensively to one of the best defensive play making teams in all of baseball.

Nats need to make strengthening the middle their priority this off season.

Well said. Guzman will be gone and the Nats have an option to pick up Kennedy at 2 million (which they might do anyway even if they don't envision him as a starter).

Have you looked at the candidates for 2B-SS free agency though? Not good, and almost everyone in their 30's. Orlando Hudson (again) and Mark Ellis are good fielding targets, but "all-star" Omar Infante is one of the only options under 30...

[Jollay]

OUTFIELD (C)

Things look a little better here now than earlier in the year, thanks mainly to Roger Bernadina showing signs of becoming an everyday player in right field. For a long time, the Nats' right field platoon hit cumulatively under .200, but Bernadina is hitting .286 with five home runs and seven stolen bases in just 168 AB. He's shown patience at the plate (.349 OBP) and has become a candidate to hit at the top of the lineup. He's also displayed good defensive prowess and a fine throwing arm in right. It remains to be seen if Bernadina is still anymore than a fourth outfielder, but it sure looks like he might be now. Riggleman certainly seems to suspect he is, although he'll still sit Bernadina against tough lefties.

Nyjer Morgan went through a tough stretch in May and June and still is only hitting .253 with a .316 OBP. Some fans have called for him to lose time to Bernadina and perhaps hit down in the order. But Riggleman has stuck with Nyjer, as I believe he really has to. His value to the team defensively and on the bases remains crucial to its success. Morgan went through a rough patch defensively as well, and has five errors on the season, but of late he's been punctuating his range in center with unbelievable catches. But after spoiling the Nats last year with his mid-.300's batting average and his base stealing ability, in 2010 he's been caught 12 of 30 times stealing and has been mediocre at best at the plate.

Josh Willingham has been the steadiest offensive player on the team in left save perhaps Dunn. A borderline all-star, Willingham ranks near the top of the league in OBP (.413) and is on pace for about 30 homers. Very limited range-wise in left, Willingham generally catches anything he gets to and left, and has even managed to steal seven bases without being caught once. Teams have expressed interest in acquiring Willingham (especially the Braves), but he is owed less money than Dunn, and despite his good year should be realatively affordable in 2011. For that reason, look for the Nats to hang onto him, although anything's possible.

Willie Harris and Mike Morse can fill in in the infield but are generally used in the outfield, although Morse sometimes spells Dunn late as well. Morse has been hitting well in very limited time (.288, 3HR, 58AB), and should start in right most times against lefty pitchers while Morgan or Bernadina man center.

Harris is having a nightmarish season, but has been clutch in alot of games offensively and defensively, especially against the Mets. Still, his poor performance probably means this is his last season in Washington. There's no debate now--he's strictly a backup.

Bryce Harper is now an outfielder. Expect him and his bat to come to DC in about 2-3 years. The down side of that? It means Washington probably won't spend more than chump change upgrading the outfield until then, so some combination of Justin Maxwell, Morgan, and Bernadina better work out for the long haul.

Maxwell is at AAA doing okay, but the Nats are about done waiting for him...

[Jollay]

STARTING PITCHING (D)

It's amazing that this area still gets a 'D' even with the arrival of Stephen Strasburg. He's been great, although not nearly as scary-good as he was in his debut. In just over 36 innings pitched, Strasburg boasts a 2.45 ERA, 53 strikeouts, and a WHIP just barely over 1.00. He's quite simply the real deal. Consistently throwing in the mid to high 90's is always impressive, but his low-80's curve ball remains the most devestating pitch in his arsenal. A legitimate four pitch guy, only injuries seemingly can derail the annointed one, although I'm never a fan of athletes getting married so young...

Livan Hernandez remains the other constant in this rotation. With an ERA hovering near 3.00, and the ability to pitch deep into games without putting too much stress on his arm, Livan has been invaluable and perhaps the Nats' MVP this year. With a base salary under a million dollars, a case could be made that Livan was the best acquisition made in the offseason.

Then there is a steep dropoff. In fact it would be surprising if Luis Atilano, JD Martin, and Craig Stammen are in the rotation the rest of the year. JD Martin has been the best of the bunch, but like Mr. Strasburg, has gotten little run support. Martin is 0-4 but sports a solid 3.38 ERA. The Nats love Stammen's potential as a Livan-type finesse pitcher, but he has been wildly inconsistent and completely unable to follow up a good start with another. He'll get more chances this year and next, but continues to fail to capitalize (5.73 ERA) on those chances. Atilano has actually been a battler out there and hasn't been terrible (6-5, 4.72 ERA). His stuff is not overly impressive, however.

Who might replace these guys, and perhaps Strasburg when he reaches his season innings cap in September? Take your pick...

John Lannan--The Nats ex-"ace", banished to AA a couple weeks ago to get his stuff together but doing well there...

Ross Detwiller--Looked good late last year. At Harrisburg on a rehab assignment but has been slowed by a bad back.

Jason Marquis--Got "hurt" after performing horribly earlier this year, including failing to retire a batter in one start. Had surgery for bone chips in his elbow, so maybe he was hurt, or the Nats' staff just missed another injury...

Scott Olsen--3.77 ERA this year in DC and was getting better before getting hurt. Aiming for a July 20 return.

Jordan Zimmermann--Signed some graphs at Nats' Park a couple of Sundays ago. Has pitched a couple of innings at A Potomac but probably won't be around until September.

Chien Ming-Wang--Nats signed him to a one-year contract for a couple million dollars and he ain't gonna be ready until...when Mike?

"As far as baseball pitchers go, there haven't been many - if any - injuries and subsequent surgeries to compare it to," Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said, comparing Wang's surgery to that undergone by Saints QB Drew Brees. "So we're kind of going without a road map with the rehab and we're kind of going on feel and how he feels and where he's at."

God the Nats do the worst physicals. Why did we even bother with this guy if we knew this before we signed him?

Anyway, I suppose we could see Garrett Mock at some point as well. Why not? Even with Strasburg and Hernandez this bunch just statistically isn't getting it done (14th best ERA in the NL).

[Jollay]

RELIEF PITCHING (B+)

It's not just the top of the bullpen that has solidified with the coming of Drew Storen. The whole bullpen has solidified. Ex-D-Back Doug Slaten (2.87 ERA) has been almost as important since being called up May 9th, giving the bullpen another lefty to supplement Sean Burnett. In a division filled with left-handed power hitters, that is (and will be later) crucial. Miguel Batista, after starting the year rather poorly, has pitched much better the last month and a half in long relief. Tyler Walker, currently on the DL, also came on after a poor start. He has been replaced by Joel Peralta, who the Nats have also been pleased with.

The seventh inning has been wonderful with guys like Sean Burnett (2.93 ERA) and Storen (1.59 ERA) excelling. Storen has flown somewhat under the radar with the coming of Strasburg, but his potential as a closer is almost limitless. Earlier in the year, Tyler Clippard was overworked coming into games in the seventh and pitching into the eighth to get games to the closer Matt Capps. Now there's no need for that.

And that's a good thing, because after an all-star worthy start and an unbelievable eight wins, Clippard has been getting hit hard lately. On June 22nd, Clippard's ERA was 1.58, but it now stands at almost a run and a half higher. I was worried he would fall off a cliff later in the season because of overuse early, but that does not seem to be the current problem as Clippard has not been generally overused since Storen has arrived. He said recently he has corrected a flaw in his delivery, so we'll see if that helps. He's been leaving the ball too up in the zone, and if he continues to do that the Nats will be forced to shelve the "Clip and Save" strategy that served them so well this year in favor of "Store and Save."

Or something. Sorry for the bad joke.

Congrats again to the Nats' all-star representative, Matt Capps, for making the all-star team (and garnering a 50k bonus). Capps is only one off the major league lead in saves, and is 22 for 26 when the opportunity presents itself. He makes things interesting (.325 opponents' batting average!) but has been getting the job done. He'll give up hits, but rarely walks batters and makes you beat him.

He also is a question for next year, as he is a free agent and the Nats have two candidates to replace him (Storen and Clippard). The Nats would love to resign him, as he's a top notch guy and a good performer, but he could be dealt at the deadline if the Nats get a very good offer.

[Jollay]

MANAGER (C)

This grade fell from an 'A' at the quarter mark. Danny Rouhier (106.7 THE FAN) hates the term, but there's just no doubt Jim Riggleman is a players' manager. The guy just doesn't throw his guys under the bus to the media. Guys like Riggleman tend to be overrated when things are going well, and absolutely savaged when they are not. Things aren't going well, and the fans and the press have started to respond.

Riggleman went 33-39 last year and was supposed to have an upgraded team this year (Strasburg, Rodriguez, Storen, Capps). But his record is worse (36-47).

I have taken more issue with some of Riggleman's decisions in games in the last month or so, but they remain generally minor complaints. He's taken heat for not shaking up the lineup, and I believe there's a valid point to that, as sometimes changes need to be made just for the sake of making changes.

But I don't think he can do much to improve a woeful rotation that just hasn't performed (most notably Lannan and Marquis, the supposed #1 and #2). And I don't think putting guys like Pudge, who although a good player is a 38-year old catcher amongst the league leaders in hitting into double plays, at the top of the lineup would have helped much. Ditto for playing Morgan less or moving him down in the lineup.

I do think Riggleman and his staff really need to take some heat for the defense. A players' manager ain't all that appreciated when the defense is falling apart, but on the other hand, it does no good to savage young players like Ian Desmond and completely wreck their confidence.

In any case, Riggleman is starting to get his doubters, and he should. However, I think his performance has still been adequate this year. I do wonder if he's the type of guy that a contender would want when the young kids do develop, though.

[Scabs304]

Love the write up. I'm pretty much a boxscore watcher when it comes to the Nats all season and was positive that there early run wouldn't last. I really would like them to at least stop the tail spin and finish it out 500, but they won't beat out the O's for the first pick next year that way. I believe Zimmerman will pick it up and the bullpen, strasburg and him will at least make the season worth watching.

[Jollay]

Thanks Scabs. I'm really hoping they can at least push 80 wins. They are the type of guys that will fight to the end and a lot of them will be performing for contracts/their careers. You have to think between Lannan, Marquis, Wang, etc. somebody will return and step up.

[craig01]

Unfortunately, finishing .500 would require the Nats to go roughly 44-34 the rest of the way.

More likely is a 70 win season, but there is always hope.....''

And hope is the foundation of baseball.