Predict who wins MVP

[Mr B]

MVP is Lamar no doubt what he did to the best AFC (obviously he couldn't play his team) and NFC should lock his status in as the MVP. CMC, Dak, Hill, Perdy, Garrett and AJ Brown had great years but Lamar just took his game to another level in the second half of the year. Thing I liked about Lamar this year is after Stephen A. Smith trashed him saying he's turnover prone and can't win big games. Lamar didn't trash him throw a temper tantrum or anything like that he just went out there and balled out proving this year he's worth his deal and making the teams who didn't want to sign him look foolish

Lamar absolutely deserves it. Kind of funny that he’s going to have as many League MVP’s as Mahomes. If he takes the Ravens to the SB this year (win or lose) is Lamar a HOF’er?

[El Turco]

where did this josh allen train come from

When every argument collapses around you...

Dak is not even the top quarterback in his division, Hurts has MoAr touchdowns.

Hurts has a lot more turnovers too.

that wasnt his argument now, was it? argument was MOAR touchdowns= better production, Dak doesnt cut it.


if you want to involve turnovers, completion percentage etc which I agree should be included, it is Purdy and no one else.

[El Turco]

More like Purdy beats his opponents so badly that last quarter or two is largely about running out the clock.

Dak gets less done with more, this is not really up for debate. And Josh Allen scores the most touchdowns, he had no shot at MVP either .

Dak gets less done with more? So you would take Pollard, Ferguson, and Cooks over CMC, Kittles, and Aiyuk? What about Trent Williams? Would you rather have him or Tyron Smith/Chuma Edoga? Dak gets more done with less. Purdy has the best roster in the NFL. Purdy is good but let’s not act like he’s playing with a bunch of scrubs.

I was talking about attempts, Dak got less yards with 110 more attempts. I get the feeling you are coming at the end of the discussion and tell me bunch of things irrelevant to the topic at hand, try focusing and reading all through it before interjecting.

and what happened to Ceedee "he should get MVP consideration" Lamb?

[El Turco]

Purdy has thrown for 43 more yards than Dak

That's like 1 deep pass to Deebo

More liek one screen pass to Kittle that he takes for 43 yards after the catch.

Completed air yards per completion:

1. CJ Stroud 7.4
2. Purdy 7.2
5. Prescott 6.4
8. Lamar 6.3
12. Allen 6.0

Per Pass Attempt:

1. Purdy 5.0
3. Prescott 4.4
7. Lamar 4.2
13. Allen 3.9

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing_advanced.htm

[El Turco]

MVP is Lamar no doubt what he did to the best AFC (obviously he couldn't play his team) and NFC should lock his status in as the MVP. CMC, Dak, Hill, Perdy, Garrett and AJ Brown had great years but Lamar just took his game to another level in the second half of the year. Thing I liked about Lamar this year is after Stephen A. Smith trashed him saying he's turnover prone and can't win big games. Lamar didn't trash him throw a temper tantrum or anything like that he just went out there and balled out proving this year he's worth his deal and making the teams who didn't want to sign him look foolish

Lamar absolutely deserves it. Kind of funny that he’s going to have as many League MVP’s as Mahomes. If he takes the Ravens to the SB this year (win or lose) is Lamar a HOF’er?

I think he'll make HOF regardless of playoff success, he is very unique at what he does and combine that with couple of MVPs he'll get in.

He needs playoffs to fix his reputation though, people already have the perception that running quarterbacks cant win titles and up to him to dispel it.

[El Turco]

"Moar points" for the offense
"Less points" for the defense

that is what this whole game boils down to.

But the QB is involved in a lot more plays than the one that ultimately results in a TD.

That's why advanced stats models try to calculate how more likely a QB's play is to add points in any given situation compared to the average QB.

Here's one such example showing Josh Allen is da real MVP: https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/

yeah those are the guys that came up with EPA/dropback

1. Purdy 0.33
2. Prescott 0.23
4. Allen 0.19
11. Lamar 0.13

[wembambamya]

When every argument collapses around you...

Dak is not even the top quarterback in his division, Hurts has MoAr touchdowns.

Hurts has a lot more turnovers too.

that wasnt his argument now, was it? argument was MOAR touchdowns= better production, Dak doesnt cut it.


if you want to involve turnovers, completion percentage etc which I agree should be included, it is Purdy and no one else.

Hilarious how many goal posts cowboys fans sOmE cowboys fans went thru to show Dak as the best quarterback of the season yet pretty much none of them show Dak as the best from my count we went from QB Rating to top scoring offense to touchdowns scored yet all of them failed ahaha

[wembambamya]

Even though I don’t think he should win it I think there is still a very good chance that Dak wins it.

Here another favor for those on the spectrum and cant scroll back 3 pages ahah

You just my point but you’re not smart enough to have figured it out.

I did what your point lmao? you cant even form a sentence and expect people to figure it out ahahahahah

[Mariner]

Here another favor for those on the spectrum and cant scroll back 3 pages ahah

You just my point but you’re not smart enough to have figured it out.

I did what your point lmao? you cant even form a sentence and expect people to figure it out ahahahahah

Honest question here.
How old are you?

[QB_Eagles]

yeah those are the guys that came up with EPA/dropback

1. Purdy 0.33
2. Prescott 0.23
4. Allen 0.19
11. Lamar 0.13

Obviously per dropback favors guys that don't have to carry the whole offense on their backs like Josh Allen has to.

[Mr Swagtastic]

MVP is Lamar no doubt what he did to the best AFC (obviously he couldn't play his team) and NFC should lock his status in as the MVP. CMC, Dak, Hill, Perdy, Garrett and AJ Brown had great years but Lamar just took his game to another level in the second half of the year. Thing I liked about Lamar this year is after Stephen A. Smith trashed him saying he's turnover prone and can't win big games. Lamar didn't trash him throw a temper tantrum or anything like that he just went out there and balled out proving this year he's worth his deal and making the teams who didn't want to sign him look foolish

Lamar absolutely deserves it. Kind of funny that he’s going to have as many League MVP’s as Mahomes. If he takes the Ravens to the SB this year (win or lose) is Lamar a HOF’er?

I think he'll make HOF regardless of playoff success, he is very unique at what he does and combine that with couple of MVPs he'll get in.

He needs playoffs to fix his reputation though, people already have the perception that running quarterbacks cant win titles and up to him to dispel it.

He's a hall of famer I agree the fact that he's doing things with his legs that many QB's aren't should separate him from the conversation of him not being in the hall of fame. If he makes the SB let alone wins one it shouldn't even be a question no more.

[wembambamya]

Pretty much what I was saying but you were more succinct

What is your go-to stat for quarterbacks? I wish espn opened up QBR so we know what they are analyzing lol

Usually I like to take few stats into my evaluation separately instead of combining them but, among the commonly used ones my favorite is probably Adjusted Net Yards per Pass attempt, I feel like the weights it puts on TDs and Int little bit more fair and doesnt have some of the redundancies some of the more traditional stats like QB rating has.

If we want to go little bit more complex EPA per dropback is good. Interesting enough Lamar had the best EPA/DB game of the season against the Dolphins. That why I am less bummed about Lamar winning it, even though his overall profile doesnt come close to Purdy, he really turned it on when it matters most and that counts for something, he has had the second best EPA/DB last three weeks only trailing ya boy Baker

Basic EPA is part of ESPN total QBR too but they use their own game winning percentages which gives odd results frequently. I think it is not too difficult to find out how they calculate total QBR, it is just I dont really trust the data they produce to calculate. It is espn, how much can you expect.

Yeah I was looking at some of them, couple of the authors I like also uses ANY/A

1. Purdy 9.01
2. Tua 7.65
3. Lamar 7.34
4. Stroud 7.32
5. Dak 7.19

Outside of Tua, this is not too far from how I would rank them from eye test for this season.

In comparison this is the QB Rating

1. Purdy 113
2. Dak 104
3. Cousins 104
4. Tua 103
5. Lamar 103

ESPN's QBR

1. Purdy 73
2. Dak 71
3. Allen 68
4. Lamar 65
5. Herbert 64

Interesting enough espn's qbr seems to be the only one that has Josh Allen high, obviously he is not a MVP candidate but top 5 is more accurate for him as opposed to 10th or 15th.

It is already posted but just as a comparison EPA/DB (ignoring Mason Randolph)

1. Purdy 0.33
2. Dak 0.23
3. Tua 0.19
4. Allen 0.19
5. Love 0.15

This one is litte bit more suspect with Jordan Love in there lol and I am guessing rushing is not included considering how far behind Lamar is.

Only one where Purdy is not the top or near the top is ELO 538 ranking that was in that EPA dropback site, but in that Dak is also relatively bad

1. Josh Allen
2. Lamar
3. Cousins
4 . Hurts
5. Dak
6. Purdy

I also checked how much offensive points scored per game just to see the silliness lol

1. San Francisco 28.9
2. Baltimore 28.6
2. Miami 28.6
4. Detroit 26.6
5. Dallas 26.3

Obviously Dallas has gotten lot of help in scoring department from their defense, but also I didnt think Baltimore would be this high.

Also wanted to see the play calling near the goalline, Shanahan doing Purdy disservice lol. Purdy has 25 attempts inside 10 yards while Dak for example almost has double with 47. It is crazy that they have almost same touchdown numbers. Mahomes leads this with 50 attempts inside 10 yards. Josh Allen also only has 26 attempts but he also gets 45 percent of Bills' carries inside the 5 yards, only him and Hurts are that high as a quarterback. And one thing I couldnt figure out is who gets the credit for field goals if total touchdowns are the only thing matters lol

Anyway, MVP or not Purdy obviously had the best year statistically which is remarkable for a 7th round sophmore, maybe if he was drafted 1st overall he would have won the MVP, dunno. He seems to be something between Kurt Warner and Tom Brady where it will take some time until people are convinced that he is for real.

Not MVP type of year but we have to admit Dak also had a very good year, we'll see how he handles the playoffs but he showed that Dallas can win with at least at home. They also have really solid defense and a kicker so they'll be favorites to go to NFC championship and they will likely be underdogs against Niners there but in one game situations you never know, Purdy might have another off night and Dallas might roll who knows.

Lamar's numbers look better than I thought, looks like he went on a tear last couple weeks, so he might be behind statistically but he is certainly a worthy MVP, did his best against the best teams. Also I agree with that other dude that Josh Allen has played much better than some of his raw stats indicate, his team took a step back and he is not a MVP candidate but I'd watch out for him in playoffs.

Lastly, I looked my guy Baker's stats, he is mostly in 8-12 range which is muuuch better than I expected before the season, I still favor drafting a young quarterback but at the spot we are drafting we wont be able to probably so I dont mind rolling with him another year.

[wembambamya]

yeah those are the guys that came up with EPA/dropback

1. Purdy 0.33
2. Prescott 0.23
4. Allen 0.19
11. Lamar 0.13

Obviously per dropback favors guys that don't have to carry the whole offense on their backs like Josh Allen has to.

really, how so? I cant quite grasp it even though many guys I respect refer to it a lot.

[Mariner]

What is your go-to stat for quarterbacks? I wish espn opened up QBR so we know what they are analyzing lol

Usually I like to take few stats into my evaluation separately instead of combining them but, among the commonly used ones my favorite is probably Adjusted Net Yards per Pass attempt, I feel like the weights it puts on TDs and Int little bit more fair and doesnt have some of the redundancies some of the more traditional stats like QB rating has.

If we want to go little bit more complex EPA per dropback is good. Interesting enough Lamar had the best EPA/DB game of the season against the Dolphins. That why I am less bummed about Lamar winning it, even though his overall profile doesnt come close to Purdy, he really turned it on when it matters most and that counts for something, he has had the second best EPA/DB last three weeks only trailing ya boy Baker

Basic EPA is part of ESPN total QBR too but they use their own game winning percentages which gives odd results frequently. I think it is not too difficult to find out how they calculate total QBR, it is just I dont really trust the data they produce to calculate. It is espn, how much can you expect.

Yeah I was looking at some of them, couple of the authors I like also uses ANY/A

1. Purdy 9.01
2. Tua 7.65
3. Lamar 7.34
4. Stroud 7.32
5. Dak 7.19

Outside of Tua, this is not too far from how I would rank them from eye test for this season.

In comparison this is the QB Rating

1. Purdy 113
2. Dak 104
3. Cousins 104
4. Tua 103
5. Lamar 103

ESPN's QBR

1. Purdy 73
2. Dak 71
3. Allen 68
4. Lamar 65
5. Herbert 64

Interesting enough espn's qbr seems to be the only one that has Josh Allen high, obviously he is not a MVP candidate but top 5 is more accurate for him as opposed to 10th or 15th.

It is already posted but just as a comparison EPA/DB (ignoring Mason Randolph)

1. Purdy 0.33
2. Dak 0.23
3. Tua 0.19
4. Allen 0.19
5. Love 0.15

This one is litte bit more suspect with Jordan Love in there lol and I am guessing rushing is not included considering how far behind Lamar is.

Only one where Purdy is not the top or near the top is ELO 538 ranking that was in that EPA dropback site, but in that Dak is also relatively bad

1. Josh Allen
2. Lamar
3. Cousins
4 . Hurts
5. Dak
6. Purdy

I also checked how much offensive points scored per game just to see the silliness lol

1. San Francisco 28.9
2. Baltimore 28.6
2. Miami 28.6
4. Detroit 26.6
5. Dallas 26.3

Obviously Dallas has gotten lot of help in scoring department from their defense, but also I didnt think Baltimore would be this high.

Also wanted to see the play calling near the goalline, Shanahan doing Purdy disservice lol. Purdy has 25 attempts inside 10 yards while Dak for example almost has double with 47. It is crazy that they have almost same touchdown numbers. Mahomes leads this with 50 attempts inside 10 yards. Josh Allen also only has 26 attempts but he also gets 45 percent of Bills' carries inside the 5 yards, only him and Hurts are that high as a quarterback. And one thing I couldnt figure out is who gets the credit for field goals if total touchdowns are the only thing matters lol

Anyway, MVP or not Purdy obviously had the best year statistically which is remarkable for a 7th round sophmore, maybe if he was drafted 1st overall he would have won the MVP, dunno. He seems to be something between Kurt Warner and Tom Brady where it will take some time until people are convinced that he is for real.

Not MVP type of year but we have to admit Dak also had a very good year, we'll see how he handles the playoffs but he showed that Dallas can win with at least at home. They also have really solid defense and a kicker so they'll be favorites to go to NFC championship and they will likely be underdogs against Niners there but in one game situations you never know, Purdy might have another off night and Dallas might roll who knows.

Lamar's numbers look better than I thought, looks like he went on a tear last couple weeks, so he might be behind statistically but he is certainly a worthy MVP, did his best against the best teams. Also I agree with that other dude that Josh Allen has played much better than some of his raw stats indicate, his team took a step back and he is not a MVP candidate but I'd watch out for him in playoffs.

Lastly, I looked my guy Baker's stats, he is mostly in 8-12 range which is muuuch better than I expected before the season, I still favor drafting a young quarterback but at the spot we are drafting we wont be able to probably so I dont mind rolling with him another year.

After reading this post. I never ever want to hear you complain about grammar or sentence structure again.
I got to the point where I had to stop counting the mistakes.

[Mr B]

More like Purdy beats his opponents so badly that last quarter or two is largely about running out the clock.

Dak gets less done with more, this is not really up for debate. And Josh Allen scores the most touchdowns, he had no shot at MVP either .

Dak gets less done with more? So you would take Pollard, Ferguson, and Cooks over CMC, Kittles, and Aiyuk? What about Trent Williams? Would you rather have him or Tyron Smith/Chuma Edoga? Dak gets more done with less. Purdy has the best roster in the NFL. Purdy is good but let’s not act like he’s playing with a bunch of scrubs.

I was talking about attempts, Dak got less yards with 110 more attempts. I get the feeling you are coming at the end of the discussion and tell me bunch of things irrelevant to the topic at hand, try focusing and reading all through it before interjecting.

and what happened to Ceedee "he should get MVP consideration" Lamb?

I left CeeDee out because I considered him a wash with Deebo. Obviously Dallas fans would take CeeDee over Deebo but I expect Niners fans would rather have Deebo over CeeDee.

As for the rest you agree then that Purdy has superior weapons to what Dak has to work with right? Therefore Dak does more with less (talent around him). Also therefore Dak’s numbers are more impressive considering he’s right there with Purdy in passing yards, has more passing TD’s and few interceptions. In fact Dak has more overall yards, fewer overall turnovers, and more overall TD’s. And again, doing it with less talent around him than Purdy. Dak never had a 4 interception game, Purdy has.

[Mr B]

You just my point but you’re not smart enough to have figured it out.

I did what your point lmao? you cant even form a sentence and expect people to figure it out ahahahahah

Honest question here.
How old are you?

I’m guessing he was born about the time the Bucs won their 1st SB.

[Micah Prescott]

Lamb is pretty much the only offensive weapon Dak has. He's the entire offense.

Purdy has Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, CMC

[El Turco]

Having good weapons never a knock against a good quarterback, never mattered for Peyton, Warner, Montana etc. Good quarterback makes those weapons go.

Purdy could be throwing to entire NFC pro bowl team but if other guy needs 100+ more attempts to get the same yards and double the red zone attempts to get the same touchdowns, it isnt a comparison. And advanced stats bear this. At the end they are all throwing to professionals.

[El Turco]

Usually I like to take few stats into my evaluation separately instead of combining them but, among the commonly used ones my favorite is probably Adjusted Net Yards per Pass attempt, I feel like the weights it puts on TDs and Int little bit more fair and doesnt have some of the redundancies some of the more traditional stats like QB rating has.

If we want to go little bit more complex EPA per dropback is good. Interesting enough Lamar had the best EPA/DB game of the season against the Dolphins. That why I am less bummed about Lamar winning it, even though his overall profile doesnt come close to Purdy, he really turned it on when it matters most and that counts for something, he has had the second best EPA/DB last three weeks only trailing ya boy Baker

Basic EPA is part of ESPN total QBR too but they use their own game winning percentages which gives odd results frequently. I think it is not too difficult to find out how they calculate total QBR, it is just I dont really trust the data they produce to calculate. It is espn, how much can you expect.

Yeah I was looking at some of them, couple of the authors I like also uses ANY/A

1. Purdy 9.01
2. Tua 7.65
3. Lamar 7.34
4. Stroud 7.32
5. Dak 7.19

Outside of Tua, this is not too far from how I would rank them from eye test for this season.

In comparison this is the QB Rating

1. Purdy 113
2. Dak 104
3. Cousins 104
4. Tua 103
5. Lamar 103

ESPN's QBR

1. Purdy 73
2. Dak 71
3. Allen 68
4. Lamar 65
5. Herbert 64

Interesting enough espn's qbr seems to be the only one that has Josh Allen high, obviously he is not a MVP candidate but top 5 is more accurate for him as opposed to 10th or 15th.

It is already posted but just as a comparison EPA/DB (ignoring Mason Randolph)

1. Purdy 0.33
2. Dak 0.23
3. Tua 0.19
4. Allen 0.19
5. Love 0.15

This one is litte bit more suspect with Jordan Love in there lol and I am guessing rushing is not included considering how far behind Lamar is.

Only one where Purdy is not the top or near the top is ELO 538 ranking that was in that EPA dropback site, but in that Dak is also relatively bad

1. Josh Allen
2. Lamar
3. Cousins
4 . Hurts
5. Dak
6. Purdy

I also checked how much offensive points scored per game just to see the silliness lol

1. San Francisco 28.9
2. Baltimore 28.6
2. Miami 28.6
4. Detroit 26.6
5. Dallas 26.3

Obviously Dallas has gotten lot of help in scoring department from their defense, but also I didnt think Baltimore would be this high.

Also wanted to see the play calling near the goalline, Shanahan doing Purdy disservice lol. Purdy has 25 attempts inside 10 yards while Dak for example almost has double with 47. It is crazy that they have almost same touchdown numbers. Mahomes leads this with 50 attempts inside 10 yards. Josh Allen also only has 26 attempts but he also gets 45 percent of Bills' carries inside the 5 yards, only him and Hurts are that high as a quarterback. And one thing I couldnt figure out is who gets the credit for field goals if total touchdowns are the only thing matters lol

Anyway, MVP or not Purdy obviously had the best year statistically which is remarkable for a 7th round sophmore, maybe if he was drafted 1st overall he would have won the MVP, dunno. He seems to be something between Kurt Warner and Tom Brady where it will take some time until people are convinced that he is for real.

Not MVP type of year but we have to admit Dak also had a very good year, we'll see how he handles the playoffs but he showed that Dallas can win with at least at home. They also have really solid defense and a kicker so they'll be favorites to go to NFC championship and they will likely be underdogs against Niners there but in one game situations you never know, Purdy might have another off night and Dallas might roll who knows.

Lamar's numbers look better than I thought, looks like he went on a tear last couple weeks, so he might be behind statistically but he is certainly a worthy MVP, did his best against the best teams. Also I agree with that other dude that Josh Allen has played much better than some of his raw stats indicate, his team took a step back and he is not a MVP candidate but I'd watch out for him in playoffs.

Lastly, I looked my guy Baker's stats, he is mostly in 8-12 range which is muuuch better than I expected before the season, I still favor drafting a young quarterback but at the spot we are drafting we wont be able to probably so I dont mind rolling with him another year.

After reading this post. I never ever want to hear you complain about grammar or sentence structure again.
I got to the point where I had to stop counting the mistakes.

I had no problem understanding any of it and English isnt even my native language.

[bluejerseyjinx]

Having good weapons never a knock against a good quarterback, never mattered for Peyton, Warner, Montana etc. Good quarterback makes those weapons go.

Purdy could be throwing to entire NFC pro bowl team but if other guy needs 100+ more attempts to get the same yards and double the red zone attempts to get the same touchdowns, it isnt a comparison. And advanced stats bear this. At the end they are all throwing to professionals.

Perhaps it also says that the Niner WR's have the best YAK and some of the other QB's don't have that luxury.