2024 NBA Draft Prospect Discussion

[Canadafan]

Duren’s defensive instincts and ability are bad, and poor defenders don’t become good ones ever. They can slightly improve but they don’t become plus defenders and Durens skill set as an athletic, rebounding, paint scoring Center just isn’t valuable in todays league. Being so young he still has intrigue and value. If you can trade him for a top 4 pick even in this draft you absolutely do it. If he doesn’t come into next season noticeably improved in multiple areas then his value will considerably dip and that’s poor asset management.

I have more faith in Ivey becoming a good player than Duren, but if Ivey + Duren could get us the 1st pick I’d definitely do it

I'd trade Ivey and our pick for this guy though
He'd be throwing lobs all day to ausar and duren

He averaged 4.5apg but 2 turnovers per game too, I wouldn’t be quick to assume he’d be great in that area. He’s interesting for sure but I really think his speed/quickness will be an issue at the NBA level and it’s not like that’s going to improve much, conditioning yes but there’s centers that look like they run faster than him. That aside, if we traded Duren for another high pick I wouldn’t be overly upset taking him risks and all.

Crap! I originally forget to post my link of Trae Young lol.
I'm not a huge young fan but I was saying if I had to I'd trade ivey and our lotto for him.
He'd be exciting. For me though he just makes way too much money. Kinda like lavine even though I was willing to just give expirings for him last year

[keepitrealhomes]

Little off topic to the original post, but another thing I like to point out to people about Duren is that his rebounding is replaceable. I truly feel like we’re a better rebounding team with stew actually putting a body on players and taking them out rather than Duren relying on his athleticism and not basic fundamentals. Besides, we all know we could turn Ausar loose and he could pull 10-12 boards a game if he wanted.

[The Moose]

Post Draft Lottery board update:

My main draft principles:
* Production & value impact : BPM, RAPM, WS/48
* Efficiency: TS%
* Feel: AST/TO + efficiency
* Hustle, Impact: (oreb rate, stl rate, block rate)
* Outlier physical traits *
* Outlier feel for the game *
* Age *

NOTES:

- Aim of my big board: To reflect the VORP over the prospects careers

- I prefer to have a concrete grading system rather than 'I just think player x is better than player y', things tend to get messy after the first few guys in redrafts.

- Differences within tiers are not notable at this stage, a lot depends on the draft fit

- I do think at least 1 of the wings I have in tier 5 (Knecht, Risacher, Furphy, Williams, Buzelis) will hit above my opinion, but I have no idea who lol

- Topic's recent injury spell and just general shakiness/not playing his last few months has caused me to drop him down a tier due to lack of confidence. If he loses his burst via injury he becomes a less enticing prospect.

Tier 3.5 - [fringe All star potential prospect] 2+ DPM peak potential
1. Donovan Clingan
2. Zach Edey
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]1+ DPM peak potential
5. Alex Sarr
6. Jared McCain
7. Nikola Topic
8. Rob Dillingham
9. DaRon Holmes II
10. Devin Carter
11. Ron Holland

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] + to neutral DPM peak potential
12. Dalton Knecht
13. Matas Buzelis
14. Zac Risacher
15. Johnny Furphy
16. Cody Williams
17. Tyler Smith
18. Stephon Castle
19. Kel’el Ware

[Tier 6 - high variance guys]
20. Isaiah Collier
21. Carlton Carrington
22. Jamal Shead
23. Ja’Kobe Walter
24. Baylor Scheierman
25 Jonathan Mogbo

[Fringe guys]
26. Payton Sandfort
27. Alex Karaban
28. KJ Simpson
29. Tyler Kolek
30. Mark Sears

My big board at this point. As for Pistons specific, if we can come away with any of the top 4, I'll be happy.

Not sure why there isn't more buzz about Filipowski, especially to Detroit. In my opinion, there are some misconceptions about him, mainly that he is positionally locked as a 5 with bad rim protection. I don't see it that way. I see him as more of a jumbo wing who can slide up if needed, ala Lauri. He has elite coordination, dexterity and fluidity for a 6'11 guy and can actually dribble/pass/shoot. He's very talented, elite production + elite impact and so versatile offensively. He has a lot of paths to being a positive NBA player.

He should absolutely be in the discussion for this pick, especially given, from what we've heard, it doesn't seem like team is particularly interested in adding another raw/teenage project to its core to develop.

DaRon Holmes II is the absolute sleeper pick, he should be way higher than he's currently ranked, so underrated.

You don't have Salaun at all in your top 30?

Filipowski is intriging, he has game, but I fear about his t-rex arms.

Salaun scares me, I don't feel confident to say I've seen enough to make me think he's guy that is true NBA quality. He definitely has some very interesting flashes, and good size + very young, but he goes against a lot of my principles. He lacks production, he is inefficient (50% TS), he has a negative AST:TO, doesn't get a lot of STOCKS. He just isn't the type of prospect that I rate highly. Not to say he can't succeed, but to me those deficits give me a low confidence level in him.

Generally I'm weary of non-ncaa guys unless they really stood out in their prior league, i.e. Luka EL MVP, Sengun Turkish league MVP, Wemby French League MVP, Lamelo top 10 PER in the NBL

[NYPiston]

Why the big deal over a shooter? Matas definitely looks like a legit prospect. Ivey and Ausar can take guys off the dribble. If you have 5 ballers on the floor, who gives a shet about a shooter??? We passed on donovan mitchell for a shooter. I don't understand the obsession with shooters.

The good teams shoot well and the bad teams don't. It's a shooting league now, you have to be able to hit the 3 at a high level to compete.
You don't just draft a guy solely because he can shoot but when you're a really bad team that hasn't been able to shoot for years, it's kind of an important thing to add.

[BDM22]

Little off topic to the original post, but another thing I like to point out to people about Duren is that his rebounding is replaceable. I truly feel like we’re a better rebounding team with stew actually putting a body on players and taking them out rather than Duren relying on his athleticism and not basic fundamentals. Besides, we all know we could turn Ausar loose and he could pull 10-12 boards a game if he wanted.

Hard to say distinctively but..

The Pistons have a 49.2% rebounding rate with Stew on the floor vs. 48.4% without him
The Pistons have a 50.1% rebounding rate with Duren on the floor vs. 46.8% without him

Not a perfect analysis since Stew has played 2 more years, and these guys share the floor a lot, but those are the career stats.

[NYPiston]

Yeah, that was my thinking as well, and it was great to hear Sheppard was #2 on the Pistons big board, but I was/am convinced that #3 was the sweet spot. I don't see how he falls to 5. Either the Rockets, or the Spurs are gonna take him.

Sar
Frenchie
Reed
Jovic

Is how I see it going. Pistons get to choose from either giant, or a non-shooting wing.

I asked you before but don't believe I got a reply. Where did you hear this?
Also, I'd take any Pistons rumor with a giant grain of salt because we don't know who will be making the decisions come draft time.

[Phenomenonsense]

Hey, don't get me wrong. Knecht is a bigger version of RIP, with a great 3 point shot. I would have zero problem putting a 6'6 screen running, 3-point shooter next to Cade. Its the reason I wanted Mathurin over Ivey so badly.

I just dread Sheppard being there at 5 somehow, and the Pistons passing.

Tape of him reminds me of Jimmer Ferdette or whatever, big pass.

They are not even close in terms of a comparison, save for their skin color.

I mean I could post a long diatribe on why, but I'm tired as I just woke up. Just trust me on this.

Ain't nothing to do with race. He's a poor defender, great shooter, short arms, great college player that will flame out in the NBA.

[zeebneeb]

Tape of him reminds me of Jimmer Ferdette or whatever, big pass.

They are not even close in terms of a comparison, save for their skin color.

I mean I could post a long diatribe on why, but I'm tired as I just woke up. Just trust me on this.

Ain't nothing to do with race. He's a poor defender, great shooter, short arms, great college player that will flame out in the NBA.

I'm not sure you know enough about Reed if your calling him a poor defender.

All good though, to each their own.

[ducler]

Salaun with a nice stat line including a clutch 3 pointer in a French playoffs game.

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[dezzie_33]

I’d love to use a 2nd round pick on Trentyn Flowers.
Good size and apparently played well in the scrimmages. He also showed glimpses in the NBL last season. I think people are sleeping on him.

[Phenomenonsense]

They are not even close in terms of a comparison, save for their skin color.

I mean I could post a long diatribe on why, but I'm tired as I just woke up. Just trust me on this.

Ain't nothing to do with race. He's a poor defender, great shooter, short arms, great college player that will flame out in the NBA.

I'm not sure you know enough about Reed if your calling him a poor defender.

All good though, to each their own.

I'm willing to be wrong, I don't watch college sports. Some scouting reports I trust have labeled him as a gambler on off-ball defense, and weak as the point of attack on defense, (with video evidence) If you have another opinion I'd love to hear it.

[Kalamazoo317]

Ain't nothing to do with race. He's a poor defender, great shooter, short arms, great college player that will flame out in the NBA.

I'm not sure you know enough about Reed if your calling him a poor defender.

All good though, to each their own.

I'm willing to be wrong, I don't watch college sports. Some scouting reports I trust have labeled him as a gambler on off-ball defense, and weak as the point of attack on defense, (with video evidence) If you have another opinion I'd love to hear it.

Here's the write up on him from The Ringer:

"PLUSES
He might be small, but he makes a massive defensive impact with incredible instincts and quick hands. He’s a nuisance on the ball who can bother any ball handler and a playmaker off of it, intercepting cross-court feeds, swiping at passing lanes, and blowing up actions by being a step ahead of screeners.

Mentally strong. Mistakes never get him down and he has a next-play mentality.

Excellent shooter with a quick, high release and deep range. Kentucky doesn’t feature him off of screens, but he has the ability to shoot off of movement and his skills off the dribble are encouraging for his overall upside. If he’s given any space, he’s launching.

Elite connective playmaker who dishes gorgeous outlets and kick-aheads on the break, and makes rapid decisions in the half court.

Can he become a lead point guard? His ballhandling still needs to be mastered, but he has the necessary baseline handling skills with a speedy left-to-right crossover and a bag of hesitation moves. Both the poise and passing vision are there in pick-and-roll, too.

He’s a below-the-rim athlete, but he has soft touch using either hand and good footwork. He doesn’t utilize a floater yet, but clearly has the touch to integrate it.

MINUSES
As stellar a defender as he is, size will always be a concern against players who can simply overpower him. There will be a learning curve and perhaps a limit to what he can do to contain them.

Needs to improve against ball pressure. He lacks reps in isolation, and he occasionally gets swallowed up by lengthy defenders on his drives. In general, he has a habit of picking up his dribble, rather than passing within the flow of the offense."

Basically fierce defender whose size might still make life difficulty for him. Definitely not a "bad" defender, though.

[Kalamazoo317]

Knecht seems like someone else we should seriously consider. Can he improve his defense at the NBA level? Is his shooting for real? Seems like he could possibly bring the same things Sheppard does but at 6'6 instead of 6'3.

[guldakot]

So apparently the combine has switched up our priorities per JE3 and this is our new big board.

Castle

Sarr

Clingan

Knecht

Sheppherd

Curious why Castle shot up the board like this.

[BDM22]

So apparently the combine has switched up our priorities per JE3 and this is our new big board.

Castle

Sarr

Clingan

Knecht

Sheppherd

Curious why Castle shot up the board like this.

I heard Castle shot well at the combine... Then again I recall one Troy Weaver saying after last year's draft that Ausar was actually a better shooter than he showed in OTE (he was worse).

[Mr Peanut]

So apparently the combine has switched up our priorities per JE3 and this is our new big board.

Castle

Sarr

Clingan

Knecht

Sheppherd

Curious why Castle shot up the board like this.

The impression I got from the article is this is JEIII's big board and not really reflective of the organization's.

[GreekAlex]

So apparently the combine has switched up our priorities per JE3 and this is our new big board.

Castle

Sarr

Clingan

Knecht

Sheppherd

Curious why Castle shot up the board like this.

The impression I got from the article is this is JEIII's big board and not really reflective of the organization's.

Let’s hope. There’s 2 of those 5 that I have zero interest in.

[NYPiston]

So apparently the combine has switched up our priorities per JE3 and this is our new big board.

Castle

Sarr

Clingan

Knecht

Sheppherd

Curious why Castle shot up the board like this.

How can there be a board at all when we don't know who will be making the decisions next month? Does this mean that nothing will change and the current regime will be the future regime?

I can see why Castle would be high on the list. He's arguably the best overall prospect outside of shooting which of course is a big deal in todays' NBA but in terms of being a guy that can seamlessly fit into an NBA roster that can do multiple things well and be a "connector" in a team concept, he's as good a bet as any in this draft.

[zeebneeb]

Holy HELL if thats the new, current big board. Let's all hope the Wolves loose tonight, and Conelly ditches his contract.

Weaver cannot be allowed to draft unilaterally again, under any circumstances.

A shooter is the priority, another damn center is secondary. Holy crap.

[Kalamazoo317]

I can see adding a forward or big man where the shooting is a gamble, but I can't see adding someone in the backcourt without being *fully* confident in them as a shooter. Suppose you could say the same for Sheppard, but not sure how you could draft Castle if you're keeping Ivey on the roster. Same for Clingan and Duren. Sarr at least has enough theoretical shooting that he and Duren could be worth trying if you squint hard enough.

Given our roster makeup, kind of shocking Knecht is the only real "wing" on that list.