Predict the First 5 Picks!

[MotownMadness]

I agree that I think Buzelis is the best fit for the Pistons outside the top 3. Pistons need a forward with range. I think that he would be a good fit for the Pistons with Duren and Cade.

Hopefully he can be Franz Wagner

If we end up drafting him, I hope his shot is a lot better than Wagner's. Wagner's crap shooting tanked the Magic in the playoffs this year.

It's pretty much on par with Wagner. I feel like both of them can be better though.

[BDM22]

I agree that I think Buzelis is the best fit for the Pistons outside the top 3. Pistons need a forward with range. I think that he would be a good fit for the Pistons with Duren and Cade.

Hopefully he can be Franz Wagner

If we end up drafting him, I hope his shot is a lot better than Wagner's. Wagner's crap shooting tanked the Magic in the playoffs this year.

Unfortunately Franz's shot came into the league much further ahead than Matas's shot will.

[Kalamazoo317]

Franz has also gone backwards since being in the league. Matas has gone backwards since high school. His shooting is the major concern I have for him. Otherwise, 6'11 and the abilities he brings to the table are really intriguing.

[Mr Peanut]

Franz shot 31% from the college 3 point line in his rookie season. Buzelis shot 27% from the NBA three point line in the G-league. I'd say they're not too dissimilar at the same age.

The key is whether Buzelis's shot will continue developing from here. Franz managed to get up to 35-36% in his first two seasons but definitely took a step back this year at 28%.

[BDM22]

Franz shot 31% from the college 3 point line in his rookie season. Buzelis shot 27% from the NBA three point line in the G-league. I'd say they're not too dissimilar at the same age.

The key is whether Buzelis's shot will continue developing from here. Franz managed to get up to 35-36% in his first two seasons but definitely took a step back this year at 28%.

Matas is the same age as Franz was in his 2nd year in Michigan where Franz shot 34.3%. The other thing I look at is Franz shot a very consistent 83% from the FT line in both college seasons. Matas shot 69%. Seems like he's just generally behind in that regard. But yeah, trajectory isn't always easy to figure out.

There's no good reason for Franz to have become a terrible shooter like he did this year.

[Mr Peanut]

Franz shot 31% from the college 3 point line in his rookie season. Buzelis shot 27% from the NBA three point line in the G-league. I'd say they're not too dissimilar at the same age.

The key is whether Buzelis's shot will continue developing from here. Franz managed to get up to 35-36% in his first two seasons but definitely took a step back this year at 28%.

Matas is the same age as Franz was in his 2nd year in Michigan where Franz shot 34.3%. The other thing I look at is Franz shot a very consistent 83% from the FT line in both college seasons. Matas shot 69%. Seems like he's just generally behind in that regard. But yeah, trajectory isn't always easy to figure out.

There's no good reason for Franz to have become a terrible shooter like he did this year.

Good points. The small wrinkle with G-League FT shooting is that they only shoot one free throw instead of two. NBA stats since 1997 say that players average 73% on their first FT and 78% on their second which kind of makes sense when thinking about shooting rhythm. Not that it would significantly close the gap between their FT percentages, but I imagine Buzelis's would be at least a few percentage points higher if shooting two at a time instead of one.

[Kalamazoo317]

Franz shot 31% from the college 3 point line in his rookie season. Buzelis shot 27% from the NBA three point line in the G-league. I'd say they're not too dissimilar at the same age.

The key is whether Buzelis's shot will continue developing from here. Franz managed to get up to 35-36% in his first two seasons but definitely took a step back this year at 28%.

I'm confused. Why was Franz shooting from the college 3 point line as a rookie? Do you mean that's what he shot as a freshman in college?

What did Ausar shoot again from the NBA three point line before he came to the league? I thought it was high 20's. Not sure that Buzelis' numbers (or the Franz comparison, honestly) are super comforting when it comes to his shooting.

[JennetteMcCurdy]

For the love of God, no more players that can’t shoot please.

[Mr Peanut]

Franz shot 31% from the college 3 point line in his rookie season. Buzelis shot 27% from the NBA three point line in the G-league. I'd say they're not too dissimilar at the same age.

The key is whether Buzelis's shot will continue developing from here. Franz managed to get up to 35-36% in his first two seasons but definitely took a step back this year at 28%.

I'm confused. Why was Franz shooting from the college 3 point line as a rookie? Do you mean that's what he shot as a freshman in college?

What did Ausar shoot again from the NBA three point line before he came to the league? I thought it was high 20's. Not sure that Buzelis' numbers (or the Franz comparison, honestly) are super comforting when it comes to his shooting.

Yep was referring to his freshman college season (forgive me, I'm not American ).

Ausar shot 29.8% from the OTE three point line which I believe is equivalent to the FIBA three point line.

Agreed though, the comparisons are all fairly tenuous and there are genuine questions about Buzelis's shooting which we have to take into account being a team that is desperately in need of it.

[ComboGuardCity]

Maybe I’m turning into Kirsten19…but I’m not drafting a short guard with short arms. No thanks to Sheppard.

At least it's not a negative wingspan like a Desmond Bane and JJ Redick

His height and wingspan are basically identical to Steph Curry's. His max vert is 7 inches higher than Steph's. Just sayin.

It just feels like we’d be drafting smaller Reggie Bullock or less athletic Monk in the top 5. I’d rather swing for the fences.

[Kalamazoo317]

Franz shot 31% from the college 3 point line in his rookie season. Buzelis shot 27% from the NBA three point line in the G-league. I'd say they're not too dissimilar at the same age.

The key is whether Buzelis's shot will continue developing from here. Franz managed to get up to 35-36% in his first two seasons but definitely took a step back this year at 28%.

I'm confused. Why was Franz shooting from the college 3 point line as a rookie? Do you mean that's what he shot as a freshman in college?

What did Ausar shoot again from the NBA three point line before he came to the league? I thought it was high 20's. Not sure that Buzelis' numbers (or the Franz comparison, honestly) are super comforting when it comes to his shooting.

Yep was referring to his freshman college season (forgive me, I'm not American ).

Ausar shot 29.8% from the OTE three point line which I believe is equivalent to the FIBA three point line.

Agreed though, the comparisons are all fairly tenuous and there are genuine questions about Buzelis's shooting which we have to take into account being a team that is desperately in need of it.

I'm almost certain (and Google appears to confirm it) that OTE's three point line is NBA distance. It's one reason that despite hearing his shot was bad, it was still disappointing how poorly Ausar shot this year (and maybe reason to hope he can still rehab it a bit?).

Risacher and Sheppard seem like they might be better bets than Buzeli, at least as shooters. Sheppard's size is a concern, of course, and it's hard to know what's real with Risacher and what's not.

Solid chance only one of those three names is there at 5 as well, though impossible to say with confidence. I'd be very surprised if all three were gone. Expecting Sarr and Topic to both go before us.

[BDM22]

I'm confused. Why was Franz shooting from the college 3 point line as a rookie? Do you mean that's what he shot as a freshman in college?

What did Ausar shoot again from the NBA three point line before he came to the league? I thought it was high 20's. Not sure that Buzelis' numbers (or the Franz comparison, honestly) are super comforting when it comes to his shooting.

Yep was referring to his freshman college season (forgive me, I'm not American ).

Ausar shot 29.8% from the OTE three point line which I believe is equivalent to the FIBA three point line.

Agreed though, the comparisons are all fairly tenuous and there are genuine questions about Buzelis's shooting which we have to take into account being a team that is desperately in need of it.

I'm almost certain (and Google appears to confirm it) that OTE's three point line is NBA distance. It's one reason that despite hearing his shot was bad, it was still disappointing how poorly Ausar shot this year (and maybe reason to hope he can still rehab it a bit?).

Risacher and Sheppard seem like they might be better bets than Buzeli, at least as shooters. Sheppard's size is a concern, of course, and it's hard to know what's real with Risacher and what's not.

Solid chance only one of those three names is there at 5 as well, though impossible to say with confidence. I'd be very surprised if all three were gone. Expecting Sarr and Topic to both go before us.

Bizarrely, OTE's practice courts are NBA distance but the game courts are FIBA distance, so I guess it's a mix of both, but the numbers they average are from the FIBA line.

The league plays with a FIBA 3-point line, a full-size NBA court, longer quarters, unique situational rules and much more. While these can be perceived as negative because it’s unlike the traditional high school or college game, it’s actually preparing these kids for the next level even better than legacy systems.

Not only are these athletes adapting to a longer FIBA 3-point line, but their practice courts are actually NBA distance. They’re in better shape than every other high school team that comes into the building because they’re used to full-sized courts and playing more minutes. Even the unorthodox rules — like the “Big Bonus” that emulates an odd man fast break — put players in situations to experience things at scale that the average basketball player doesn’t at their age.

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/newsfeed/do-your-homework-overtime-elite-is-the-perfect-program-for-young-hoopers-

[Kalamazoo317]

Oh, wild. That is bizarre. No wonder it was so tough to figure out! OK, that makes me feel *slightly* better about Buzeli. I think he's one we ought to at least consider at that spot, but not at all settled that he should be the one.

[crashnburn26]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nTKRxa2Yp-GdHMKKDHv6Tg

Per this tweet Clingan is a top 3 lock. I see it as:
ATL - Sarr
WAS: Clingan
HOU: Reed
SAS: Risacher
DET: Knecht
CHA: Castle
POR: Buzelis
SAS: Topic
MEM: Holland
UTA: Dillingham

I will gladly settle for any of Risacher/Reed/Knecht in that order if they fall to us. Shooting is what we need now

[BDM22]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nTKRxa2Yp-GdHMKKDHv6Tg

Per this tweet Clingan is a top 3 lock. I see it as:
ATL - Sarr
WAS: Clingan
HOU: Reed
SAS: Risacher
DET: Knecht
CHA: Castle
POR: Buzelis
SAS: Topic
MEM: Holland
UTA: Dillingham

I will gladly settle for any of Risacher/Reed/Knecht in that order if they fall to us. Shooting is what we need now

Don't think "firmly in play" means he's a top 3 lock. Just means all of those teams are considering him.

[Kalamazoo317]

I don't have a good feel on order, but I think right now Sarr, Clingan, Topic, and Castle are the top four picks. Which would mean we'd have our choice of Reed, Risacher, Buzelis, and Knecht. Those four and Sarr should probably be our top five big board anyway.

[Notanoob]

Sarr
Topic
Clingan
Dillingham
Sheppard

Honestly of the top guys I want either Clingan or Sheppard right now. I don't want to draft a non-shooter unless it's Clingan basically, just sick of watching a team brick open looks constantly.

Also no to Knetch, guys who weren't good until their senior year who can't play defense must have a 0% hit rate in the NBA, never mind that he's a 23 year old senior too. No shot he's got a better career than a guy like Doug McDermott. People are just fooling themselves that this guy is somehow different than the litany of senior scorers (who can't do anything else) who fail to make an impact as pros.

[ducler]

Currently I think this will be the top 4:
#1 Sarr
#2 Clingan
#3 Sheppard
#4 Risacher

Then comes us at #5...
I'm taking Salaun there or trade down to take him, but Pistons will take Tellem's guy Buzelis for sure.

[Kalamazoo317]

Also no to Knetch, guys who weren't good until their senior year who can't play defense must have a 0% hit rate in the NBA, never mind that he's a 23 year old senior too. No shot he's got a better career than a guy like Doug McDermott. People are just fooling themselves that this guy is somehow different than the litany of senior scorers (who can't do anything else) who fail to make an impact as pros.

I think Knetch has the exact kind of off-ball juice we need next to Cade and at 6'6 he can at least give us a big backcourt defensively. Sheppard's going to get picked on defensively just due to his size, and there's no way he's going to spontaneously grow taller. Even if Knecth only ends up being a score-first sixth man, that might be our best case scenario at #5 in a draft this weak, so I wouldn't hate that. I also am not against the age at all, because this team has plenty of youth and rawness already. We could use someone ready to contribute right away.