Stuckey and Amir

[Champs04bigshot]

Rip Hamilton couldnt shoot the 3 until three years ago does that mean that before the 04-05 season, Hamilto didnt have a sweet stroke?

In addition, Afflalo plays "ok" defense? Really, just ok? Be for real, Afflalo is already one of the Pistons best defenders and he has the potential to be a lockdown defender. He is not ok, he is very good.

No one is saying that Stuckey doesnt have more upside than Afflalo, what I am saying is that today Arron Afflalo is the better player and there really is not much you can argue with that.

So now Afflalo is a lock down defender and you are going to give a comparison to Rip about his jumper? To me a player like that should be an all star. I realize he husle and plays defense but once again everyone on this board says he is great at defense and is a lock down defender if he is who has he shut down? Who did he put lock ups on to make you come on this board and say that? He has not locked anyone up you are going on reputation from college.

I understand that Afflalo is playing better right now but what my point is if Stuckey never got hurt Afflalo would only be playing 4 or 5 minutes a game maybe. Afflalo is playing better on because of the time missed and injury to Stuckey in the orlando game he was wearing his brace again.

My point is Afflalo is not a better player right now than Stuckey like all you say he is just healthy and been there all year practicing. Being able to practice longer and healthy doesnt make you a better player it makes him more comfortable. If Stuckey was healthy no one would be calling for Afflalos minutes because we all saw how Stuckey played in preseason. Stuckey didnt lose that he has just been hurt so i believe AA is not a better player which i think most would agree he just has been there and not hurt.

[princeofpalace]

^
Im wondering if you even read peoples posts before you respond to them.

There is a huge difference in saying that someone is right now a lockdown defender and saying that they have the potential to be a lockdown defender. Go back, reread the post and tell me what I said.

In addition, I NEVER said that Afflalo was as good as Rip Hamilton. I was making the point that not everyone is going to come into the league and be able to shoot out to the 3pt line, its something that you can grow into.

[Champs04bigshot]

^
In addition, I NEVER said that Afflalo was as good as Rip Hamilton. I was making the point that not everyone is going to come into the league and be able to shoot out to the 3pt line, its something that you can grow into.

Ok you said he was a very good defender, what makes you believe that i asked for what reference you had for him being a "very good" defender and you still wont give me examples or instances when his defense has shown you that ability.

I am sorry if i misunderstood what you were saying, but then again you tell me to read posts before i respond, you didnt look at mine because i NEVER said you said AA was as good as rip hamilton i said i cant believe you would give AA a comparison to Rip with his jumper. So thats wierd that you would call me out and then do the same thing in that very post. I understand people mis read things. But my point has always been that he can get a jumper but if he is suppose to be a good shooter i dont believe a good shooter can go 5-29 with all good looks.

Once again i am not just singling you out i am just wondering what AA has done to make everyone think he has great defense.

[JustinSane]

According to the objective statistical metrics available, Afflalo is the best perimeter defensive player on the team.

82games.com lists him as having an opponent's allowed production of 10.2, which is best on the team (compare Billups 12.6, Prince 13.1 Hunter 13.2, Hamilton 15.1 and Stuckey 19.5 (ouch)).

With Afflalo on the court, team points allowed per 100 points are 3.5 points lower than when he is off (when Hamilton is on, points allowed are 3.6 higher per 100 possessions). Effective field goal percentage allowed is 3.5% better with Afflalo on than off the court.

I know statistics are not a perfect guide, but they are the most objective means of measurement we've got. And subjectively, when he plays he looks like Bruce Bowen lite in my opinion. I think it's more than fair to say he is a very good defensive player right now, with the potential to be a lockdown defender.

Edit: For comparison, here are the production allowed statistics for a few of the more highly regarded perimeter defenders around the league: Kidd 16.3, Bowen 15.8, McGrady 14.1 Wade 14.0, Artest 13.9, Jackson 13.7, James 12.8, Battier 12.2, Ginobli 12.2 and Bryant 12.0 (Kobe for DPOY?) and Pierce 11.1 (possibly distorted by Garnett's help defense). This shows just how insanely good 10.2 is for Afflalo (though he can expend more energy on defense than most of these players since he plays far fewer minutes and is usually the last option offensively). It can't be overlooked that he is often matched up against bench players, but then again Saunders frequently puts him in to cool off an opposing player with a hot hand, so I'm not sure how much of a factor that has.

I just checked every team in the league, and Afflalo's 10.2 is the best mark in the league for a player who played at least 15% of his team's minutes (he's at 22%). Second is Tony Allen at 10.3. Who knows, maybe Afflalo actually is lockdown already.

[Dirtgrain]

I didn't realize we had those statistics at our disposal.

I thought we already knew Afflalo was a great defender from watching him play. But, apparently, to some degree, the statistics back him up. Of course there are many other variables (e.g., who gets stuck guarding the toughest player on the opposing team, what the score in the game is when the player is on the floor (close? Blowout? End of the game?), if the player is going against bench players or starters, etc.).

I did not realize that McGrady and Ginobli are top-notch defenders. Are they really?

Now that I think about it, I don't exactly understand the nature of these statistics. What does 10.2 mean? Does that mean his man scored relatively fewer points--or the entire opposing team scored relatively fewer points when he was on the court?

[beau]

Great post JustinSane!

[magee]

In regards to Stuckey, he's not being the Stuckley at Eastern Washingotn. He doesn't want to step on anybody's toes. He doesn't want to be aggressive and commit back-to-back turnovers trying to make plays. He's on a veteran team and playing like a rookie should play: learning the system while not making any mistakes. This is considered by most as sucking. He's gonna be good. Players just need time to develop. He's one of them. Play Flip since he isn't going anywhere and let Stuckey play full-time at the PG for the last two weeks of the season. He'll have at least two 20 point, 10 assist games, even if both come with 4 or 5 turnovers.

Afflalo is a true role-playing shooting guard. He's aggressive when he has to be, he's seasoned in a winning culture (two Final 4's in last two years at UCLA) and knows he won't ever be a go-to guy. He's a great find at the end of the first round. Expect 14 points around his 5th year in the league, but not much more. He's gonna have a breakout game where everything clicks.

Amir Johnson is a **** stud. He's only 21, folks. Don't get too upset about him not playing. He was the last high-schooler taken ever. He plays a position that requires a lot of versatility, but most of all, a lot of strength. he's great as a weak-side shot blocker and moves very well off the ball, whether it be going for offensive rebounds or cuts to the hoop. Why isn't he getting any pt?

He's 21. Give him another year. He's going to get all of McDyess' pt when his contract is up. He's going to start to get it right now. Remember, he'd be a senior in college right now. If he can't produce next year, then start hating on him. The kid's too talented to get impatient with him. He needs playing time. He won't get it on a veteran team trying to win a championship. At least not this year.

Herrmann is as good as gone after this season. He's a starting small forward for a team in need of a glue-guy (New Orleans or New York or Seattle). Let's see what he can do in 20 minutes of action. He's a vet. and he deserves this pt beacuse he's played long enough to fit in with whoever he's playing with.

[JustinSane]

Thanks beau As to what the 10.2 is measuring, this is one flaw of 82games.com (otherwise an excellent statistics site) is that they do not always clearly explain exactly what some of their metrics are measuring. I'm fairly sure that what the opponent's production statistic measures though is the efficiency of whoever the player is guarding. So if Afflalo is guarding someone, they have an average efficiency of 10.2, while if Stuckey is, it's 19.5.

[Champs04bigshot]

[quote="magee"]In regards to Stuckey, he's not being the Stuckley at Eastern Washingotn. He doesn't want to step on anybody's toes. He doesn't want to be aggressive and commit back-to-back turnovers trying to make plays. He's on a veteran team and playing like a rookie should play: learning the system while not making any mistakes. This is considered by most as sucking. He's gonna be good. Players just need time to develop. He's one of them. Play Flip since he isn't going anywhere and let Stuckey play full-time at the PG for the last two weeks of the season. He'll have at least two 20 point, 10 assist games, even if both come with 4 or 5 turnovers.

Afflalo is a true role-playing shooting guard. He's aggressive when he has to be, he's seasoned in a winning culture (two Final 4's in last two years at UCLA) and knows he won't ever be a go-to guy. He's a great find at the end of the first round. Expect 14 points around his 5th year in the league, but not much more. He's gonna have a breakout game where everything clicks.

Amir Johnson is a **** stud. He's only 21, folks. Don't get too upset about him not playing. He was the last high-schooler taken ever. He plays a position that requires a lot of versatility, but most of all, a lot of strength. he's great as a weak-side shot blocker and moves very well off the ball, whether it be going for offensive rebounds or cuts to the hoop. Why isn't he getting any pt?

That was a good post and i am excited to see the future with Stuckey and Amir and Maxiell leading the group and with Afflalo helping out. I think that we have done some great things with the young talent and it will be great to see them develop hopefully we can keep them all here to see them progress.

[Big Steak]

I agree with Champs04, very good post magee.

[magee]

Thanks.

[Master Shake]

Great Post Magee, glad to hear an outside opinion. And really glad to see you see the light. This is all just growing pains for our young kids, by this time next year I expect to see Stuckey and Amir almost double the players they are now.

Everything in your post was spot on except, Amir's still 20. And he's a stud. And he'd be a junior in college. But that only makes him look even more like a stud. I can't wait for Amir to put on like 15 more pounds and see where his game goes from there.

[prophet_of_rage]

You don't need statistics to see that Afflalo is a much better defender than Stuckey. He doesn't turn his back to the ball. Stuckey does. How much more do you need to know?

That said, I never thought much of Afflalo's game at UCLA. I didn't think he'd translate well to the NBA. He has found one niche. Defensive SG. So he's out there to battle the wing scorer. He's better able to do that than the 197lbs of Rip Hamilton. But aside from that, he does top out as Bruce Bowen lite.

Just don't expect Stuckey to top out as Dwyane Wade lite which is what I think a lot of people are expecting. He's going to have a very bumpy few years because he doesn't yet have the elevation and explosion to live with a suspect jumper.

[prophet_of_rage]

By the way, the production statistics are again PER averages. So for those of you who love PER stats basically Afflalo's PER is measured at 12 something and his opponents perform at 10.2 against him. So he's slightly more efficient than his opponents. Compare that with Rip who's PER is at 20 something and his opponents at 15.2. Now Stuckey's PER is 8.8 and his opponents a very healthy 20.2 when the league average is set to 15. So Afflalo keeps players below league average. Players get happy when they have Stuckey on them.

[prophet_of_rage]

Just looking at more of Stuckey's statistics and a whopping 21 per cent of his inside shots are blocked. That's one in every five. He's really got to learn to finish better since half his shots are drives to the rim.

[Master Shake]

All of those things are problems, but this is just growing pains of a rookie, especially since he's only played less than 20 games or so. Looking lost, making bad decisions, and getting blocked is pretty common among rookie guards...

[bstein14]

21% of his shots have been blocked?!?!

That's a crazy amount.

On the bright side, he's making almost 40% of his shots that aren't blocked.

[Hunter]

21% of his shots have been blocked?!?!

That's a crazy amount.

On the bright side, he's making almost 40% of his shots that aren't blocked.

.......

[roc]

not 21% of his shots, 21% of his INSIDE shots

[jab]

Just looking at more of Stuckey's statistics and a whopping 21 per cent of his inside shots are blocked. That's one in every five. He's really got to learn to finish better since half his shots are drives to the rim.

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