BDM22 wrote:jars wrote:You have to be pretty sure of your scouting department to be able to hit in the back end of the lottery or later and our scouting department has not been good for a long time. You can't expect us to find all star calibre players in that range For every one of these stars, there are 4x as many busts or role players in the same range.
I get the more chances we have, the more likely it is to land a star theory, but these aren't ping pong balls in a lottery and there is an element of institutional skill in identifying talent which we haven't had in the same way that Memphis and OKC have in the past. Unless we get a PoBB who brings in a scouting team who does have this skill, I just don't trust us to land a star in that range, so I would prefer to stand pat and run the course.
Then we're cooked either way so none of this matters lol. If we're not gonna find a true franchise player with a few shots per draft, how are we going to find it with 1?
It's easier to hit higher up the draft. There are usually consensus guys in the media and around in the top 5-7 such as the guys we have taken with #5 picks the last two years.
Let me just remind you of the outcomes of trades moving backwards in the top 10 over the last few years:
2023
Washington received pick 7 (Bilal Coulibaly) &
Indiana received pick 8 (Jarace Walker) and two second rounders.
Outcome: TBC but I lean towards Washington.
2020-2022 - no top 10 trades.
2019
Atlanta received pick 4 (Deandre Hunter), a late second rounder, and Solomon Hill &
NOP received No. 8 (Jaxson Hayes), No. 17 (Alexander-Walker), an early second.
Outcome: Everyone loses. Hawks probably win because at least Hunter plays.
Wolves received pick 6 (Jarrett Culver) &
Phoenix received pick 11 (Cam Johnson) and Dario Saric.
Outcome: Suns win this, but they famously said they didn't even scout Cam Johnson properly, so it is proof that even a broken clock is right twice a day.
2018
Dallas received pick 3 (Luka Doncic) &
Atlanta received pick 5 (Trae Young) and a future first (Cam Reddish).
Outcome: Mavs win this.
Phoenix received pick 10 (Mikal Bridges) &
Philly received pick 16 (Zhaire Smith) and a future first (traded in a package for Tobias Harris Pick used on Tre Mann).
Outcome: Suns win this.
2017
Chicago received Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, No. 7 pick (Lauri Markkanen) &
Minnesota received Jimmy Butler, No. 16 pick (Justin Patton).
Outcome: Meh. Maybe Chicago win because Jimmy Butler embarrassed TWolves players and execs, but Jimmy is the best player by far.
And of note -
Jazz received pick 13 (Donovan Mitchell) & Denver received Trey Lyles and pick 24 (Tyler Lydon).
Outcome: Jazz win easily.
History tells us trading back rarely works because they team that trades up tends to win the trade and get the best player in the trade. I'm not just saying I don't trust our scouting team, I'm saying it takes a special scouting department to be prepared to make the trade.