Selling High or Selling Low?

[Kalamazoo317]

I think all the "blow it up" talk gets a bit confusing because it's unclear what anyone even means by that. I don't think many of us are really advocating for moving off of Cade. I think a better way to approach the conversation and what we should really be asking ourselves this offseason has to do with players like Ivey and Duren, and that debate isn't about blowing it up or not, it's about their trade value now *and* later.

Basically what I'm asking is, if we traded Ivey and Duren now, would we be selling high or selling low?

If you believe we'd be selling high, you probably looked at what happened with Killian and Bey and Wiseman and so many prospects like that and realized that if they struggled as much to be part of winning basketball as they have already in their career, getting more minutes on a losing team won't make them look any better. "Potential" is their allure. If we'd sold off of Killian or Bey after their rookie years, we would've gotten a much better return than we got when we finally moved off of them (Killian, notably, for nothing).

For me, Ivey and Duren are raw and have some great traits (elite speed on Ivey, elite rebounding on Duren) but haven't shown flashes of an all around skill set needed (not reliable as shooters, not much in the way of defensive ability or awareness). I don't trust that they'll develop into elite players given all the time in the world, so I think their biggest selling points are "potential" and that we'd be selling high if we traded them now rather than waiting until they get more tape out there and furter show off their flaws.

I also don't think tough roster fits help (Cade and Ivey both being subpar defenders and both being better on ball, Ausar and Duren both being better with shooters around them). Usually when a player is in a situation that doesn't let their skill set shine, it hurts their development and lessens their trade value over time. I can see that happening here, where the best chance for Ivey or Duren to shine is on a different team that provides their ideal fit.

If you believe we'd be selling low, you likely think that we can find ways to make the roster fit, or that we should prioritize these two over some other aspects of the roster (i.e. play Cade off ball more, trade Ausar instead of Duren, etc.). You also likely think that the elite skills we've seen (Ivey's speed, Duren's rebounding and mobility for a big man) are building blocks and that their weaknesses (defense in particular) will diminish over time with growth and development.

I'll also say I don't have much faith in this team developing raw players. We've been in a losing situation so long, with so much losing mentality, such bad coaching, so little dependable veteran leadership, and such ill-fitting lineups, that I think it's way more likely that players trend down rather than up while they're on our team.

What do you think? If we traded Ivey now, would we be selling high or selling low? What about Duren?

[MotownMadness]

Cant imagine they gain much value after their rookie deals. I would definitely trade one of them at least to get Cade some help.

[Canadafan]

We need-dependable veteran leadership, and better fitting lineups.
If we can get 3 good vets who make this mish mash of a team fit better together, at MLE or just above money with our +$60million in cap space, then I think these youngs guys will look so much better.
That's our opportunity right now.
Then in the future you make the next step to consolidate a couple youngsters into a beast to play with Cade.
Plus I still believe we should make our draft pick because especially with franchises like ours. The draft is your best shot at getting a "beast"
Cade is our guy.
We either luck out and get another guy to develop with our Iveys, Durens, Ausars, top5 pick this year by surrounding said players with vets that fit.
And we get another guy with consolidating our Iveys Durens Ausars top5 pick Stew Sasser and whoever else.
If we rush that process then we're in deep doo-doo lol
Draft. Add vets that fit. Pray. Consolidate. Pray again. We got thisssss

[joedumars1]

Getting high and sitting low

[BDM22]

We need top-end talent. Likely someone better than Cade. Really the only way to get that is through the draft. No one is going to hand us that in trades for Ivey, Duren, Stewart, etc. Gotta hope we can develop these guys into something beyond what we currently see and capitalize in future drafts.

Move stuff around for fit or whatever, but I don't generally think trading youth for mediocre vets out of desperation is the way to go. The $60M+ cap space and draft picks with a decent GM and coach should already get you out of the cellar. Can't be trading the only high upside assets you have for that or you'll end up stuck in the treadmill.

Some young players/picks will bust and that's fine. It's a part of it. You just need a core of 2-3 guys that can make the leap and then you build from there.

[GreekAlex]

I think it’s a mistake to sell any of the young players for veterans. Trying to get older by mortgaging youth before you’ve hit on at least one all-star is a recipe for disaster.

The team can get veterans through trades and free agency.

Duren & Iveys value is worth more to the Pistons than whatever they would command in a trade at the moment.

[Kalamazoo317]

I certainly wouldn’t trade either guy for mediocre players or bad returns. I’d only trade them if we could get better assets out of them. I’d certainly be fishing for deals though because their stock is more likely to go down than up imo

[Billl]

I'm out on Ivey at this point. His defense has just been so bad, I don't see a path forward. Even if he improves as a shooter, our best backcourt defender can't be cade.

Duren - depends on the return. His defense was also bad last year, but he at least showed some flashes of being able to turn it up defensively at the beginning of the season and much of his rookie year.

[Cowology]

Unfortunately, I think Ivey, Duren AND Ausar have less trade value than what they likely had at the beginning of last season. Hopefully that improves this season, but it's certainly not a guarantee. Regardless, somebody needs to be on the move.

Ivey is the biggest question mark and right now does not look like a guy capable of helping a team win games. Sell high. His value will only deteriorate from here.

Duren still has some value, but he's going to have to take a step forward and either expand his offensive game or become better defensively. You can't be a starting C who doesn't defend or shoot. It's just... not a thing. This *might* be selling low IF Duren takes a big step forward, but I'd still ship him for better fitting pieces. And if he doesn't take a step forward then I guess it was selling high and that was OK too. *shrug*

Ausar is a keeper. He's the boom or bust. He'll never have enough value to justify giving him up in a trade, so you hang onto him and *pray* he develops a shot. He could conceivably be part of a larger trade IF necessary, but I find it unlikely another team would consider him a deal breaker. But I'm giving this kid as long as Killian got.

[Canadafan]

I think it’s a mistake to sell any of the young players for veterans. Trying to get older by mortgaging youth before you’ve hit on at least one all-star is a recipe for disaster.

The team can get veterans through trades and free agency.

Duren & Iveys value is worth more to the Pistons than whatever they would command in a trade at the moment.

So very true.
Only thing I'd possibly do is Ivey+our top4draft and the next available draft pick(2029?) to get a player like Dejounte Murray(doubtful I know) or Mikal Bridges or Markkanen (again, I'm aware that's doubtful).
Then use free agency money for a couple forwards if we got a Murray level guard or get a forward and a guard if we got a Bridges level forward.
I'm keeping Cade Ausar Duren, I like them dudes

[Invictus88]

We'd be selling high on Ivey if we get similar value of a top 5 pick in return. I don't think our team is an environment direction where he can thrive. This is Cade's team.

I want to believe we are selling low on Duren. But his defense really underwhelmed last year. Dream scenario would be we flip him for a lottery pick in next year's draft but how realistic is that really?

[MortSahlfan]

We're only going to have so much money, and I'm definitely choosing Duren over Ivey.. I think we'll keep Ausar on a Stew type of deal.

[BDM22]

Whole lotta Ivey sellers and Ausar/Duren keepers here when it's Ausar and Duren that clash far more than Cade and Ivey, and in a way that seems like an extreme long shot to remedy.

Swap coaches to one that simply staggers them instead of the ridiculous 5-man bench units and I think Ivey/Cade looks 50% better on day 1. Better yet, one that doesn't just park guys like Ausar and Ivey in the corners as spot-up shooters for 90% of plays. Grading through the Monty filter is next to impossible.

Ausar is so far away from developing a jumpshot that Duren somehow feels more likely to develop one and he has never made a 3 in his career. Ivey's closer to becoming the best shooter in the league than Ausar or Duren are at becoming simply below average shooters.

Ivey's also the only "core" player on the team that actually is able to play more than 60% of the games (and probably the only one that actually wants to be in Detroit).

Just feel like I gotta balance it out every now and then lol.

I'd lean toward keeping them all and seeing who turns out and who doesn't, but Duren would be the first to go in an effort to open up more for opportunities for Ausar whom I think is more impactful. Past Cade, none are at risk of getting the max, so you let them go to free agency and simply match offers and then trade them later if need be.

[MotownMadness]

Guys do usually make a big jump in year 3 if they're on a positive trajectory right?

Here's hoping

[Canadafan]

^^^^the Monty filter, I like that.
I'm leaning towards keeping them all too. I always assumed Cade and Ivey would figure it out or u stagger them like u said. Last year was a train wreck though.

[Snakebites]

Cant imagine they gain much value after their rookie deals. I would definitely trade one of them at least to get Cade some help.

Yeah I wouldn’t keep the entire core together.

Even the best possible version of these guys together is a suboptimal fit.

[SuperBad]

I think best case scenario, if we keep Ivey, Would be to let him be the primary ball handler in his limited role of Cades backup 12-20 minutes game, if he somehow begins to excel with his jump shot he gains more opportunities, we go find two clearly better spacing options. something like Knecht and LWV, then invest the rest of the cap space into the frontcourt. Try to get Ingram or someone on that level along with bringing fontechio back.

[Snakebites]

Unfortunately, I think Ivey, Duren AND Ausar have less trade value than what they likely had at the beginning of last season. Hopefully that improves this season, but it's certainly not a guarantee. Regardless, somebody needs to be on the move.

Ivey is the biggest question mark and right now does not look like a guy capable of helping a team win games. Sell high. His value will only deteriorate from here.

Duren still has some value, but he's going to have to take a step forward and either expand his offensive game or become better defensively. You can't be a starting C who doesn't defend or shoot. It's just... not a thing. This *might* be selling low IF Duren takes a big step forward, but I'd still ship him for better fitting pieces. And if he doesn't take a step forward then I guess it was selling high and that was OK too. *shrug*

Ausar is a keeper. He's the boom or bust. He'll never have enough value to justify giving him up in a trade, so you hang onto him and *pray* he develops a shot. He could conceivably be part of a larger trade IF necessary, but I find it unlikely another team would consider him a deal breaker. But I'm giving this kid as long as Killian got.

Yeah this is where I’m at.

Ivey’s value dropped but that’s only selling “low” if you believe his value will recover. I’m not seeing that. At least not with us.

I still like Duren’s offensive fit with Cade but yeah, that defense needs to improve or he’s not a long term fit either.

Our guys don’t have the value some think they do, unfortunately. The only one where I think “selling low” is a term that even applies is Ausar given how his season ended, and the possibility he could take a leap next year.

[LaSheed]

Idk if it's selling high or low but I just want to get Cade a running mate.

[joseph mamah]

After reading this thread I guess my hope of an Ivey/Duren/filler for Markkanen trade is just a pipe dream