Is Washington better than Detroit

[JonathanJoseph]

As Heroic Kennedy put it, no one, including the "experts" know what's going to happen. All we have are educated guesses, but betting on conventional wisdom is never a winning proposition.

A few points to follow up on...

Seems that even those Piston fans who think highly of the Wiz think about 50 wins is possible. Here's why that number is too low. It has been so long since Arenas/Butler/Jamison have been healthy at the same time that everyone, experts included, have forgotten how good they were. The Wizards were 33-21 before the injuries started. 33-21 is 60%, or 49.5 wins over 82 games. The Big 3 were a 50-win pace team when the rotation included Etan Thomas, Jarvis Hayes, Michael Ruffin and Jared Jeffries.

Needless to say the Wizards roster is far, far superior at this point. I will be surprised at anything less than 53 wins (assuming relative health).

As for Blatche/Villanueva, it's not nearly as far fetched as you imply. Blatche is a full 2 years younger than CV and Blatche's 08-09 looks alot like CV"s 07-08. Blatche could break out this year and still do it a year before CV.

Also, word is Arenas is healthy. You are kidding yourself if you don't think a healthy Arenas is a full-on Superstar. If you need a refresher...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm2XO28YRYU

[The Webb]

I think that saying Arenas is a superstar is a joke in it's self.

First of all, he is injury prone.

He's an 'elite' point guard who is a career low 40% from the field, and has an a/to of less than 2pg. All the while doing it on a complete joke of a team, in a weak eastern conference (Arenas has practically been out of the league these last 2 years). I was beginning to forget all about him.

He's also got a horrible contract (no need to get into that). I would easily take Caron Butler over him. Gilbert, much like an Allen Iverson, are me-first players. Personal goals will be met during Gilbert's career, assuming he can stay healthy. That's assuming a lot in my opinion. Meanwhile your team will continue to be 'good', but never great, or even close.

There's little doubt who the better team is right now if everything goes according to plan. That's Washington, but you've had the same team for years now. Any Detroit fan who disagrees is being foolish. We're in the rebuild (on the fly) but still on the rebuild.

Even with Arenas healthy, I don't see you as any type of threat in the east, nor do I see the Pistons as one either. I think it would take no more than 5 games to take out Washington in a 7 game (matched up against ORL, CLE, or BOS)

[Master Shake]

Jamison is a freakin revolving door on defense.

Arenas hasn't been healthy in 2 years, he has had SERIOUS knee problems. Look at how people said McDyess' knees would fall off for us, Arenas is twice as bad at this point.

Blatche, McGee, and Haywood are the definition of streaky and inconsistent. McGee was a rook though, and he could be pretty solid.

Mike Miller sucks, Randy Foye is ok.

My analysis: not impressed with Washington. If they stay healthy, Flip will get them to 45 wins or so, but gotta keep Arenas in check. The reason I don't think this Wiz team wins 50 games with all this "talent?" Well, when they had all that "talent" healthy in the passed, they were routinely getting bounced by much weaker Cavs teams.

Not impressed.

[doclinkin]

Jamison is a freakin revolving door on defense.

[1.] Arenas hasn't been healthy in 2 years, he has had SERIOUS knee problems. Look at how people said McDyess' knees would fall off for us, Arenas is twice as bad at this point.

[2.] Blatche, McGee, and Haywood are the definition of streaky and inconsistent. McGee was a rook though, and he could be pretty solid.

[3.] Mike Miller sucks, Randy Foye is ok.

My analysis: not impressed with Washington. If they stay healthy, Flip will get them to 45 wins or so, but gotta keep Arenas in check. The reason I don't think this Wiz team wins 50 games with all this "talent?"

[4.] Well, when they had all that "talent" healthy in the passed, they were routinely getting bounced by much weaker Cavs teams.

Not impressed.

[1.] Tim Grover says no, knee is fine now. Gil had one knee blowout that he tried too hard to re-hab and didn't recover sufficiently, he subsequently had two follow-up procedures. Last year backstage whispers said he was practicing with the team at all-star break-- but realistically at that point there's no reason to blow a good tank job when instead you can land a high lotto pick and stockpile talent. Worked for San Antonio with Big Timmy. Typical Bullets draft luck, it didn't work so well for this squad [looks at Blake Griffin, wistful sigh]. It takes a minute to regain bounce and timing, but observers of Gil's run at attack athletics said his squad (Gil, Iggy and others) was 8-0 against two other squads of NBAers, one of the teams consisting of DWade and LeBron. Like Iguodala said via twitter, as far as Gil's knee is concerned: "he's back like he left his black card".

[2.] Haywood is the definition of solid. Haywood is the primary difference between a 43 win playoff squad (without Gil) and a 19 win bottom dweller (without Gil + Haywood). He's a top 5 Defensive center. +/- stats show that with Haywood on court we have a team in the top 3rd defensively, with him off court we have among the league's historically worst ever defenses. Checking opponent fg% (best measure of defense, with respect to predictive stats on which teams are most likely to win the championship, for instance) Haywood has a greater effect on his squad's defense than nearly any other player on any other team. He doesn't pull points all that much, nor snatch defensive rebounds, but that's mostly because he's forcing misses. The coach was 'streaky' in jerking him out the game since he lacked Princeton Center range and passing, but when given consistent minutes he produced consistently night in night out, pretty durable. Check 07-08. And before that, Haywood is the primary reason why your starting center, the KFB, is busy bobbling inside passes on your squad instead of here.

But yeah the rest of those players (add Nick Young as well) are streaky like a prune juice, exlax, and olestra milkshake on Charles Bukowski's boxer shorts. McGee is a spectacularly athletic 'footer, who still thinks he's a 190lb Austin Daye-skilled outside wing forward, when quite frankly, he's not. He's got room to improve, needs a big man coach. My opium dream envisions Kevin McHale slumming with his college teammate and good friend Flip Saunders, but that would require him sitting a bench next to two guys he'd fired. The other half of the laudanum vision has us landing your Bill Laimbeer in DC to teach the young puppies dirty tricks, but I don't see that happening either. Maybe Sammy Cassell will at least teach them to set solid painful picks so his backcourt students can get free for the midrange shenanigans.

[3] Career 40% from three not is 'sucks'. Not is sucks is player who-- injured and not shot falling-- adjust game to pass more, rebound more. Not is sucks. Now is healthy. Cave man talk over.

[4.] Last time this squad had all three healthy at once they were tops in the East when all-star considerations were figured out. Granted that was the synthetic ball era, and Gilbert was hot like a forest fire in Santa Ana winds. The thought is that with better depth (not Jarvis Hayes, not MIke Ruffin, etc) the squad could better withstand an injury here or there, or even a few extra minutes rest, or a night off from a weary starter on a long road trip. Flip says this team is deeper than others he's coached, he'll have to reconsider his short bench philosophy. We'll see. Either way, there's no doubt there are better back-ups here than in years past.

I like Rod Stuckey. I like your UConn dogs. You'd be better if you had Emeka Okafor to add to your Huskies roster, I got nothing bad to say about the Pistons though. Defensively you're in the same boat as the Wizards, still a few pieces short of a complete two-way team. Though in your case you lack Haywood in the front court, in our case we lack TPrince on the perimeter. Either way we're both stuck with soft finesse 'power' forwards who prefer to rebound in open space more than sealing the paint/baseline and battling for contested balls. Give DC the edge in coaching experience.

Oh and in the battle of 'last highschoolers ever taken in the NBA draft' I think I'd say Andray Blatche > Amir Johnson. But that's an accomplishment to cherish like that dusty 'perfect attendance' ribbon you won in 7th grade. Ain't gonna go on your CV. (Curriculum Vitae, not Cholly Villopecia).

[Liqourish]

^ What does Amir Johnson have to do with the comparison between Washington and Detroit? From all reports, he might be traded from Milwaukee to Toronto.... don't see how it affects this comparison though.

[doclinkin]

Right, nothing anymore, just saying nanny boo boo we drafted the better of the last two highschoolers taken in the NBA draft. That makes us like totally better.

Side note, what the hell is Milwaukee doing?

[tmorgan]

Don't entirely agree with what you said, but awesome post, doclinkin. I LOL'd a couple of times.

[Warspite]

I believe over the last 3 yrs the Wizards are undefeated in August and September. They are awsome on paper and have maybe the best bench in the NBA which is needed since most of there starters are call in sick right after Halloween and dont come back untill the 4th of July. I think the players believe they are members of Congress and take 3 months off every 6 weeks.

[Zerocious]

and with that, this thread came to screeching halt. nice one warspit.

ibtl