Risdon's Post-Combine Mock

[CR Reina]

Jeff's new mock (Version 5.0) is now live.

http://football.realgm.com/src_feature_article/98/

This mock represents one scenario of two that are floating in my head. In this version, the QBs and RBs slide much further than most expectations. This also downplays the poor Combine performances of some higher-profile players (A. Smith, Jenkins, Crabtree) but acknowledges upward movement on some of the workout standouts who have some positive game films to back them up (E. Brown, J. Gilbert, M. King).

This far out from the draft, before the teams have held their private workouts and meetings with players, any mock draft is more an exercise in educated guessing than precision forecast. I like to think I’m very good at reading between the lines, but in many cases the lines aren’t quite defined just yet.

As always, this represents what I believe the individual teams would do if presented with the scenario given. This does not always mesh with what I would do if I were making the picks.

Round 1

1. Detroit Lions: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest.

Why Curry? I don’t believe they have real interest in Matt Stafford for a couple of reasons. Foremost is that new GM Martin Mayhew realizes they are much more than a 50% shot at a franchise QB away from being good. Second, Stafford is represented by Tom Condon, the agent who was responsible for the Eli Manning draft trade and the holdouts of Brady Quinn and many others. You can carve this in marble: The Lions will not draft anyone unless they have a deal worked out before the draft. I also know the Lions believe Curry is a special, once-in-a-generation talent at a position they have chronically lacked. Detroit’s defense has ranked dead last two years in a row and desperately needs an infusion of talent with athletic ability and size. The depth at tackle and the affordable availability of more proven youngish QBs like Derek Anderson or Byron Leftwich seals the deal for Curry.

[Ant]

No way Herman Johnson falls to the Steelers in the 3rd. Where is Max Unger???

[lpsevier]

If that scenario played out, I'd be surprised if the Falcons didn't view Davis as Jimmy Williams 2.0 and didn't pick Perry instead.

[Icness]

Some notes on my thinking...

--On the Giants taking essentially 2 TEs: Jared Cook is more the replacment for Plaxico as the big downfield target and matchup problem. I know they still like Beckum and my guess is he would top their draft board at that 2nd round spot. Could be wrong, but the other primary needs (OLB, S) they have just aren't filled with the players there in this situation.

--Apparently the Max Unger fan club has caught wind of his omission because my inbox is blowing up with "WTF about Unger" notes. It's funny because at one point I had him going to Dallas in the 2nd. He very well could go in the late 2nd, but in this incarnation he simply didn't make the cut.

--Hardest 1st rounders to pick were Cincinnati and the Jets.

--I got an email from an NFL Director of Collegiate Scouting regarding my picks for his team, and he wondered how I knew his draft board. That's pretty cool considering I was going on secondhand info and oen shot in the dark. It's a team that their fans probably don't like my picks for them either.

--I made all the picks yesterday and wrote the commentary this AM. After thinking and re-thinking some spots, I have a couple of changes I would make:
Philly takes Robiskie instead of Beatty at 27, with Beatty dropping to DET at 33 and Ayers to KC at 35

Flop Cody Brown and Jarron Gilbert, as a birdie reminded me the Raiders extensively scout the Bay Area talent and like to keep them at home.

Flop Bomar and Pat White, with White going to JAX and Bomar to CHI. I actually had a strong vision of Bomar in a Bears uniform that came out of nowhere while I was putting mustard on my salami sandwich at lunch.

Next update will be next week after free agency has begun and we have a better idea of what teams really need and are looking for. I don't expect the top 5 to change at all though.

[Cevap]

won't Seattle and Cleveland flip-flop their picks every other round as both had the same record?

[kdawg32086]

OK, so every credible draft site on the web has Max Unger, Patrick Chung, and Jairus Byrd going in the first three rounds. This mock has none of them in the first three rounds. I'm sensing a bias.

[sunshinekids99]

Clay Matthews looks like he's flying up the charts.

I think BJ Raji goes a bit higher, but again you know what your talking about and I'm basically playing a guessing game.

If New England can land that draft, I'll be pretty much as happy as a pig in crap.

[WAYSA]

I would be suicidal if the Bears passed on Stafford for DHB.

I like Sean Smith better than Cook, but no other complaints for the Bears.

[NoSkyy]

DHB, Cook, and Pat White? I'll take it.

[D J C]

Some notes on my thinking...

--I got an email from an NFL Director of Collegiate Scouting regarding my picks for his team, and he wondered how I knew his draft board. That's pretty cool considering I was going on secondhand info and oen shot in the dark. It's a team that their fans probably don't like my picks for them either.

Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, or Saints. Am I close?

Do you think the Bucs pick changes after the cuts today? Hopefully we'll address OLB with one of our two picks. No one in free agency I really like to fill the void. And two WRs for the Bucs in the first 3 rounds? I like how one's a speedy playmaker and one's a possession, but I think both are slight reaches. Plus, we have too many other holes we need to fill now and I don't think we can afford to take two players for any one position in the first 3 rounds.

No Patrick Chung? Simple oversight or you don't like him for some reason? He's a top 3 safety in this class in my eyes.

[nuttinbutta Big Dog party]

You have the Packers taking 3 defensive secondary players with 4 picks in 3 rounds. Ugggg.... We are struggling in the front 7 and we have rapidly aging OTs. Packers don't need to take more than one player in the secondary in the entire draft, much less 3 in the top 100.

IMO, no way Raji gets past the Packers at 9.

[Icness]

You have the Packers taking 3 defensive secondary players with 4 picks in 3 rounds. Ugggg.... We are struggling in the front 7 and we have rapidly aging OTs. Packers don't need to take more than one player in the secondary in the entire draft, much less 3 in the top 100.

IMO, no way Raji gets past the Packers at 9.

If Jenkins is off the board, then absolutely I agree Raji will be their pick at #9.
As for OL--check out Xavier Fulton from Illinois. Trust me, the Packers are They are also high on a kid from EMU named TJ Lang who you'll be hearing mentioned as a sleeper by the Mayocks and Kirwans of the world soon. He's more of a finesse guy but he's got potential, real good against speed rushers.

Something to think about--Nick Collins and Al Harris hit free agency next summer, and Woodson's contract dictates he is either a renegotiation or a winter cut too. And they are going to look at Rouse at ILB as much as safety, though I think he'll stay as their run-defense strong safety and come off on passing downs. That could leave Will Blackmon and Tramon Williams starting at CB...yikes! Actually I can think of worse pairings, but I think the Cheeseheads want something better than that.

[Manhattan Project]

It kills me to see the Jets take Nicks, considering that Stafford and Davis still on the board. However if I learned anything in the past few days is that I know absolutely nothing about what the Jets are thinking. Also another thing that is annoying is that we are going over these scenarios yet in a few hours it seems FA will hit and having a new coach like Ryan Im sure he will fill a ton of holes via his old guys. Good times.

[Icness]

OK, so every credible draft site on the web has Max Unger, Patrick Chung, and Jairus Byrd going in the first three rounds. This mock has none of them in the first three rounds. I'm sensing a bias.

Unger and Byrd I can see in the first three rounds, they just didn't fit in this one. I'll be real surprised if Chung gets drafted before the 5th round. Real surprised.

I have no anti-Duck bias, except those hideous uniforms. And Joey Harrington. It's not like I'm sitting here thinking "Aww crap I put an Oregon player in there, gotta change that right away." One of th downsides of scouting is that you lose the passionate love/hate that draws most fans to college football. I still love my Buckeyes and I'd die for my Ohio U. Bobcats, but what is sad is that my hatred of Notre Dame and Michigan and Florida State and Miami (the one in OH) has sort of evaporated. I get to know too many good people at those places and I have to watch game tape objectively. I still want Notre Dame to lose every game, every year, but their SID office and some of their recent players (Ryan Harris, John Carlson, Tommy Z) have proven to be great people and very helpful to me and it's hard to root for the team plane to crash anymore.

I kinda like Byrd if he can stay on his toes all the time and learn better timing on hitting the receiver. I rated him #8 or #9 on my CB big board--ahead of Mickens and Sean Smith. One of his issues is upside--the general consensus is he's already at his best, whereas a lot of the guys I rated lower than him have higher ceilings, and that carries weight come April.

Some of my downish thinking on Unger and Chung comes from Senior Bowl week, where Unger flopped horribly at C and made BJ Raji a whole lot of money when Unger moved to guard too. Even against Mitch King and Alex Magee, Unger had real trouble holding his position or moving them in run blocking. Chung looked small and slow to react compared to Delmas, Hamlin, and others (he's better than Will Moore though!). That really sticks in my mind and I'll wager it does for a lot of teams too.

[kdawg32086]

Haha Ic, I was just giving you s**t about the bias. But I do think it's a bit odd for no Ducks in the first three rounds. Chung I agree is dropping like a rock, but Byrd IMO is next in line after Jenkins, Davis, A. Smith, Moore, S. Smith, Butler.

Unger, I agree had a crappy combine but I think he'll still be a late 1st/ early 2nd after an improved performance at pro day and high scores on his testing. A guy that can play all 5 positions has to have some GM drooling.

What are your thoughts on Jeremiah Johnson and Feneki Tupou? I've heard that JJ could go as high as being the 4th running back taken this year, as a couple teams really like him as a change of pace guy and the fact that he plays faster than he runs and has great vision. Tupou never really impressed me in college but somehow he seems to show up in the 2nd or 3rd round of everyone's mocks.

[Modern_epic]

You have the Packers taking 3 defensive secondary players with 4 picks in 3 rounds. Ugggg.... We are struggling in the front 7 and we have rapidly aging OTs. Packers don't need to take more than one player in the secondary in the entire draft, much less 3 in the top 100.

IMO, no way Raji gets past the Packers at 9.

If Jenkins is off the board, then absolutely I agree Raji will be their pick at #9.
As for OL--check out Xavier Fulton from Illinois. Trust me, the Packers are They are also high on a kid from EMU named TJ Lang who you'll be hearing mentioned as a sleeper by the Mayocks and Kirwans of the world soon. He's more of a finesse guy but he's got potential, real good against speed rushers.

Something to think about--Nick Collins and Al Harris hit free agency next summer, and Woodson's contract dictates he is either a renegotiation or a winter cut too. And they are going to look at Rouse at ILB as much as safety, though I think he'll stay as their run-defense strong safety and come off on passing downs. That could leave Will Blackmon and Tramon Williams starting at CB...yikes! Actually I can think of worse pairings, but I think the Cheeseheads want something better than that.

I wasn't going to bring up a 3rd rounder to nitpick, but since someone else already did...

Jenkins I get. He is the BPA available at that point; you take him and then don't worry about CB for years to come with him and Williams.

But spending a 3rd round pick on a guy who, if Collins resigns, would seem to be the number four (or five, if you count Woodson on the depth chart, which I would if the Pack grab Jenkins) saftey seems like a waste. At the very least, it seems like a decision that can wait until you have a better idea if Collins will re-up.

Unless you think he is heads and shoulders above the pack's potential need picks at that point? Or you are just convinced that the Pack never draft for need? I would be pretty open to that explanation, actually, as unhappy as it makes me as a Pack fan.

[ReasonablySober]

Nice job on the mock.

If the draft shaked out along similar lines, I would hope GB takes a flier on Johnson and Unger in the 3rd.

[Icness]

Haha Ic, I was just giving you s**t about the bias. But I do think it's a bit odd for no Ducks in the first three rounds. Chung I agree is dropping like a rock, but Byrd IMO is next in line after Jenkins, Davis, A. Smith, Moore, S. Smith, Butler.

Unger, I agree had a crappy combine but I think he'll still be a late 1st/ early 2nd after an improved performance at pro day and high scores on his testing. A guy that can play all 5 positions has to have some GM drooling.

What are your thoughts on Jeremiah Johnson and Feneki Tupou? I've heard that JJ could go as high as being the 4th running back taken this year, as a couple teams really like him as a change of pace guy and the fact that he plays faster than he runs and has great vision. Tupou never really impressed me in college but somehow he seems to show up in the 2nd or 3rd round of everyone's mocks.

I really like JJ's future as a 3rd down back or a speed complement to a power back. You nailed him--he plays faster than he times and he does have great vision. He also appears to understand hot to make an impact in the passing game. Kind of like Kevin Faulk.

Tupou is one of my bigger disappointments. I thought his feet looked real heavy and he had a lot of trouble engaging guys in space. He stops his feet when he's blocking too much.

I'm not getting on you about this, but think about the statement you wrote on Unger:
A guy that can play all 5 positions has to have some GM drooling.

I believe that worries a team just as much as it attracts them. Where does he fit best? How do I address the rest of my line needs? What if he is adequate at all but not a real asset at any, then I just burned a high draft pick on a utility lineman? If I were repping Unger, I would throw his versatility on the back burner and market him as a G, where he might be the best one or two in this class. No way he's more than a backup C, and I don't see the footwork/strength to play LT (not right away). Bag the "jack of all, master of none" and have him commit to G, but keep the seed planted that if he doesn't work out at G, he has the ability to try him at other spots with reasonable expectation of success.

Or maybe I've been talking to agents too much...

[ReasonablySober]

I'm a huge fan of Unger. I think he's a top guard in a ZBS but I could easily see him stepping in at RT as a rookie.

[glennathan]

I was just wondering why the Baltimore Ravens are not going at the WR and TE possibilities. That is a department that is weak for that team considering all they have is an aging Derek Mason and an iffy Mark Clayton along with an injury prone Todd Heap.

I understand the looks at defense considering the loss of Chris McCalister and the possible losings of Ray Lewis and Bart Scott.

I think the biggest area of concern is the WR, the defense is going to need some work and TE is always a good thing to get if you can grab a good one.