CDM_Stats wrote:vvoland wrote:1. "Klay had a fine year" and they "would love to bring him back at 3/60 with a team option on yr 3." "Still a better overall player than grayson allen, point blank".. sounds like 3/75 is the soft walkaway number for them
2. Wiggins, however, "has to go" and "what do you need to attach for another team to take him.. at least a first" and "one of the worst players by advanced metrics in the league that played x games." that last one seemed hyperbolic as he then reached for a stat (EPM, I think) and once he found it, it looked better than he expected, by the sound of it.
3. "Podz is a good role player for this team" and "First team all-rookie" and "not the heir apparent for klay or steph" and "one of the best 3rd options on offense"
4. Do you extend Moody and JK? Moody should tell the warriors to kick rocks and not sign a cheap extension. Extend JK for 25M or less. Does he want the mcdaniels (5/130) extension or will he take the jalen brown rookie extension (4/80).
5. Restructure GP2 and figure out what to do w/ Looney.
1) awful across the board. I mean how much of it is Klay's fault though? He's not taking himself out of the game. I'm sure he didnt ask to be a down low help defender. But to call it a fine year is peak boxscore watching
2) awful across the board, and flat out untrue except for public facing metrics. Wiggins is the prime example of maxing value.. he's a niche player and we took him out of his niche, and surprise surprise, he wasn't as good. If they arent trying to win, trade him, unless he actually does have negative value. Really doubt he does though - Warriors laid the blueprint on how to use him. Then inexplicably went away from it
3) except for the 3rd option part.. sure that's fine
4) think that's as accurate as I've seen from a talking head. I'd still sell on Kuminga because I think his peak is Rudy Gay, and if you create a situation where he's one of your 2 best scorers.. well we saw how that played out. And I think an extension means thats our future, unless we get some credible star power that can shoot, fast. Moody.. would love to keep him but would he love to stay? Its not crazy to think anywhere else he'd be getting more time
5) how exactly do you re-structure an NBA contract? (A: you cannot, unless its to give them more money when you have capspace)
Vecinie is not a reliable source, never has been, but there's only really 2 connected people in the NBA media ranks. Thats one thing thats been crazily clear to me since the days when I got good info.. there's virtually no difference between what these guys discuss and what forums discuss. Its all white noise to me tbh.. I mean if you have a researched opinion, why would I put that below his? Thats how I look at it at least
We've had the Klay conversation plenty so I'll just skip to the wiggins part. I think you're being way too easy on him and I can't see why. The scheme stuff does explain a bunch of the defensive struggles but offensively, he's been in the same system and his #s have cratered (declined, if you want to not get hyperbolic). Beyond the numbers, his style of play and general effort on that end was lower than at any point in his GSW career.
Most of the advanced metrics also bear that out. Lowest FG% and 3pt % on his lowest volume while in GS. Assists, steals, and blocks per 100 possessions all went down. TOV % increased, TS % decreased and OBPM, DBPM and VORP were all the lowest in the last 5 years. Again, let's say the defensive metrics are due to a different role, why is the offense so much worse? He even had a lower usage and was often matched up against 2nd units and still couldn't quite manage. I'm quoting the advanced stats here because you've heard me speak about what my eyes see but this is a topic where the eye test and the box scores and the advanced stats all agree. Perhaps the tracking data doesn't but since I neither have access to it nor know which data to look at, it's hard for me to add that to the conversation. From what I've seen, he was a lethargic player; more on the offensive side than on defense. The few games were he played like his old self were jarring in the impact he had on winning and how rare they were.
I agree that if they're trying to win, moving wiggins for a player that can reach wig's ceiling is probably impossible. How likely is Wigs to reach his ceiling considering what we've seen since that early season stretch in 22-23? That's the tough decision the dubs have right now. Personally, as I said above, I keep wiggs to next year's deadline in the hope he'll recover some value but unless he is playing lights out from the pre-season through end of Jan, I still trade him if I can get back a comparable player. I would guess Wigs is a negative value considering the length of the contract and his reputation. There's a big risk in keeping him to the deadline - he may crater his value even further.
Rudy Gay's career high in FG% was 50.4 while his high in points per 36 is 21.4. After being buried for two months this season, at age 21, JK put up 21.9pts per 36 on 53% FG. Rudy Gay's career high TS was .582 in his age 32 season on 22% usage. JK's was at .598 TS% on 24% usage, this season, at age 21. Rudy was a far more accomplished college player that came into the league at 20 and had all he can eat in terms of shots and minutes early on. JK had to fight for every minute on the court (probably shouldn't have had to). In their first 3 seasons, Gay had 10K minutes vs JK's 4500. I'd say JK's already reaching peak rudy gay a decade earlier than rudy did while having half the nba experience after year 3.
GP2's contract is pretty easy to 'restructure.' You get him to opt out of the player option (9m) and sign him to a 3 year, ~15M deal. If he's unsure he can get another contract after this season, he may take that additional 6M in guaranteed cash. If he's pretty sure the next portland will give him a deal if he stays healthy next season, he'd have no reason to opt out and he'll just get to free agency. Looney isn't in the same boat but they do need to figure out if they want to cut, trade or keep the guy. Unless that 5M in guaranteed money gets them under the 2nd apron or the tax line, I don't see why they would not keep him around as a locker room guy, backup/matchup big.
Not sure what you consider reliable but I do think Sam's connected considering he has former podcast co-hosts currently working in multiple front offices. I don't necessarily mean his analysis is reliable, but if he's hearing that wiggins will cost a 1st to move, I'd trust that over a message board poster saying we can move wiggins to Phi for their 16th pick. No offense whatsoever to TB for floating that rumor, btw, just as a point of comparison.
