Most Underrated Players in the League

[BS007]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/s ... id=2882388

By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com

One thing I've noticed in my short reign as America's Ultimate Czar of Underratedness and Overratedness:

It's a lot more fun to call a guy underrated than overrated.

For some reason, when I roll out my fabled reality-versus-illusion concept to explain why I called some Hall of Famer overrated, the world never seems to appreciate the subtlety of my arguments.

But when I use almost exactly the same concept to lay out how other players in our midst must be underrated, I'm hailed as some kind of freaking genius.

What's up with that, anyway?

Well, whatever's up with it, now that we've gotten through a day of immersing ourselves in overratedness, it's time to get a little more upbeat -- i.e., time to announce The 10 Most Underrated Active Players.

As with that all-overrated column you've probably been frothing over for the last 24 hours, I didn't feel compelled to have all the names in this column match the names in (CAUTION: SHAMELESS PLUG APPROACHING) my new book, "The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History."

A good example of how those names may diverge is Craig Biggio, who is featured in the book excerpt I know you're panting to read elsewhere on this site. In the book, he's anointed the Most Underrated Second Baseman of All Time. But he isn't in this column. And here's why:

The aim of the book was to assess Biggio's career, which has definitely been underrated. But the aim of this column is to rule on who's underrated right now. And as Biggio closes in on 3,000 hits -- while hitting an un-Biggio-esque .237 -- he might be on the verge of actual over-ballyhooization. So he didn't make this list.

To learn who did, just keep on reading, because here they come -- The 10 Most Underrated Active Players in Baseball:

No. 1 -- Roy Oswalt

Could somebody please explain why this guy isn't considered the National League's Johan Santana?
Oswalt is a two-time 20-game winner. He leads all active right-handers not named Pedro Martinez in winning percentage (104-50, .675). And he's the only active pitcher who can say he has never -- never -- had a season in which his winning percentage was worse than .625 or his ERA was higher than 3.50. Yet not only has he never won a Cy Young Award -- he's finished in the top three only once. Ridiculous, isn't it?

A couple of years ago, I asked his catcher, Brad Ausmus, how many people -- if I polled 10,000 Americans -- would have any idea Roy Oswalt was (at the time) coming off back-to-back 20-win seasons.

"That would depend," Ausmus chuckled, "on whether anyone on our team was among the 10,000 Americans."

OK, I retorted, suppose nobody on the Astros was among the 10,000 Americans?

"Oh," Ausmus said. "Then none."

Your honor, and members of the all-underrated jury, we rest our case.

No. 2 -- Trevor Hoffman

It's always fascinating how one month -- October -- can twist the perceptions of players in every conceivable direction. So we're going to toss all postseason stats into the dumpster and compare only the regular-season careers of two great closers.
Closer A and Closer B have both had long, distinguished careers. Closer B is considered a cinch Hall of Famer. Closer A still has folks debating whether he's Cooperstown-worthy or not.

Yet Closer A has converted 89.5 percent of his lifetime save opportunities, struck out 9.8 hitters per nine innings in his career and held those poor opposing hitters to a .207 batting average and .264 on-base percentage.

So Closer A beats Closer B in every one of these categories. Closer B's figures: 87.9 percent, 8.0 strikeouts per 9 IP, .214 average, .270 on-base.

Why, then, would anyone think that Closer A might not have Hall credentials as worthy as Closer B? Easy question. Because Closer B is Mariano Rivera, the Greatest Postseason Closer Who Ever Lived (34 saves, 0.80 ERA).

Closer A, on the other hand, is Hoffman, who once went eight years between postseason save opportunities through no fault of his own.

Now obviously, I'd have to be a major goofball to argue Hoffman has a better Hall case than Rivera. But that doesn't mean Hoffman hasn't been criminally underrated. Here's the best way to put their careers in perspective:

They have basically the same number of blown saves in their careers -- 58 for Hoffman, 57 for Rivera -- except Hoffman has had 70 more opportunities. In other words, Rivera would have to go two seasons without blowing a single save just to say he had the same save-conversion percentage as Trevor Hoffman. So can we please give this man his due already?

No. 3 -- Hanley Ramirez

We liked playing that Player A versus Player B game so much, let's try it again.
Player A is a National League shortstop. He is averaging a .303 batting average, 129 runs scored, 76 extra-base hits and 52 stolen bases per 162 games in his career.

Player B is also an NL shortstop. He's averaging .288, 114 runs, 60 extra-base hits and 61 steals per 162 games.

Player A is 23. So is Player B. So which one would you start your team with?

If I didn't tell you the names, I'm betting you'd take Player A, right? But now let's reverse that. Let's say I had never shown you those numbers. And then I asked if you'd rather have Ramirez (aka Player A) or Jose Reyes (Player . Then what?

Admit it. You'd take Reyes. Heck, to be honest, I'd probably take Reyes myself. But does anybody who doesn't own a teal cap know Ramirez's numbers are actually better? Dubious. Which sums up his underratedness just about perfectly.

No. 4 -- Jake Peavy

Is there a more fun pitcher to watch in the entire National League than Peavy? If there is, he's at least on a list that's shorter than Tim Kurkjian.
Since 2004, if we compare the Padres' strikeout machine to all NL starting pitchers with as many innings pitched as he has, he tops the whole league in strikeouts, strikeout ratio, WHIP and ERA. And if you enjoy swinging and missing, Jake Peavy is your man. The only NL starter who has induced that with greater frequency than Peavy (27.3 percent), according to our friends at Inside Edge, is the Phillies' Cole Hamels (27.9).

Yet Peavy is probably only about the 15th-most-talked-about pitcher in his own time zone. And anybody with that kind of greatness-to-pub ratio is a lock to make a list like this.

No. 5 -- C.C. Sabathia

You know what might be the biggest upset of the year? That Sabathia didn't get one vote in our recent "Which Pitchers Would You Pay to Watch?" poll. Heck, I'd pay to watch him.
He's already the first left-handed pitcher since Andy Pettitte to start his career with six straight seasons of double-digit wins. He has won more games (88) than any active pitcher under 27. And the Elias Sports Bureau reports he's just the fifth pitcher to debut in the last quarter-century and reach 1,000 strikeouts before turning 27. (The others: Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood.)

But the real reason C.C. is on this list -- aside from that snub in the pay-to-watch survey -- is simple: He's only getting better. He's striking out more hitters (9.05 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And he's walking fewer hitters (1.6 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And that's what aces -- especially underrated aces -- are made of.

No. 6 -- Carl Crawford

Joining the Devil Rays isn't exactly the same thing as joining the witness protection program. But it's close enough in Crawford's case.
Has anybody noticed that this guy has become the first player since Rogers Hornsby to increase his batting average and home run totals five years in a row? Has anybody noticed that the only other players since 1900 to match his 2006 numbers in batting average (.305), stolen bases (58) and home runs (18) were Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan? Has anybody noticed he's on pace to become the only player besides Ty Cobb to reach 1,000 hits, 300 steals and 100 triples before he even turns 28?

Yeah, didn't think so (outside of those 29 general managers who would love to trade for him). Well, we sure did blow his cover, didn't we?

No. 7 -- Placido Polanco

Polanco and his double-play partner in Detroit, Carlos Guillen, probably both should have made this team. But if I'd included everybody who deserved to make it, we would've blown a hole in cyberspace.
So why Polanco? Because, when I was mulling over this list and brought up Polanco's name, one scout's instant reply was: "He should be your captain."

Players like Placido Polanco operate so far below the radar screen, you need a submarine to keep track of them. But since he arrived in Detroit on June 10, 2005, and got his chance to play every day, he has struck out less (only 49 times) than any player in baseball who has been to the plate as often as he has. And the only AL players with higher batting averages than his (.317) since then are Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Vladimir Guerrero. Ever heard of them?

The best way to describe Polanco, though, isn't with any number. It's with that word, "winner." He's one of those "glue" players. He glues your team together with all those little things he does. And the 2006-07 Tigers are a walking testimonial to that. Then again, so is his inclusion on this prestigious list.

No. 8 -- Kevin Youkilis

When a guy has been a star in "Moneyball," and then becomes an everyday player for the Red Sox, you wouldn't think it would even be possible for him to be a candidate for an all-underrated anything team. So for Youkilis to make this squad, it might have to rank as the greatest achievement in his whole career.
But in case you haven't been paying attention, this fellow has turned into much more than just "The Greek God of Walks." The only AL first baseman outslugging him is Justin Morneau. Nobody beats him in OPS, batting average, runs scored or multihit games. And one AL executive wanted to make sure we noticed what an underrated defender he is -- so now that he mentions it, Youkilis hasn't made an error at first since last July.

Nevertheless, he still gets overshadowed by just about every position player around him, and by half the other first basemen in the league. And you'd be amazed how often "overshadowed" translates to "underrated" when you're writing columns like this one.

No. 9 -- Joe Nathan

What Johan Santana is to the front end of Twins games, Nathan is to the back end. Since the day he arrived in Minnesota in 2004, he's been kind of the Mariano Rivera of the Great Lakes. But has anybody caught on to that -- except the hitters?
Nathan has converted 92 percent of his save opportunities (blowing just 11 saves in 143 chances). He has punched out nearly two hitters (301 altogether) for every one who has gotten a hit (155). And his WHIP (.97 baserunners per inning) beats any closer's in his league since then.

I was tempted to put his side-wheeling set-up man, Pat Neshek, on this team instead. But Joe Nathan is one of the most unpublicized, unhittable, totally dependable closers on earth. And nobody knows it. But with any luck, they do now.

No. 10 -- Travis Hafner

Hafner's Indians compadre, Grady Sizemore, would have been awarded this final roster spot if he hadn't fouled up his underratedness by making the cover of Sports Illustrated. And even Hafner was a borderline call, just because his nickname (Pronk) has gotten so much attention.
Yeah, America has heard of him. Yeah, America knows he can thump a little. But most of America still hasn't comprehended how good he is. Heck, I rated him the third-most underrated DH of all time in the book.

Who owns the best on-base percentage (.420) and OPS (1.019) in the whole American League since 2004? The Pronkster. Who's the only hitter besides Albert Pujols to have a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage and 100 RBIs in each of the last three seasons? The Pronkster.

So what am I saying? That this fellow is a masher in the same stratosphere as Pujols, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero and Manny Ramirez. Except they hog all the "SportsCenter" time, while Hafner just monopolizes the All-Nickname Team. And that, ladies and gentlemen, may be the ultimate prescription for underratedness.

[Buck You]

Prince Fielder
JJ Hardy

[Bleeding Green]

What is this based on? John Kruk's opinion of a player or..? Underrated in what sense?

Pat Neshek is maybe the best reliever in baseball and no one ever mentions him, so yeah. He gets my vote. Also, Magglio Ordonez has been the best player in baseball this year; will he even make the All-Star team as a starter?

John Lackey. Crazy underrated.

Roy Oswalt is overrated.

[2poor]

Yeah I don't see how Oswalt is "underrated," they've been on his jock for years.

Polanco is a good one though, he's a huge part of Detroit's success and only people who follow the Tigers and/or baseball closely would know that.

[Basketball Jesus]

A good example of how those names may diverge is Craig Biggio, who is featured in the book excerpt I know you're panting to read elsewhere on this site. In the book, he's anointed the Most Underrated Second Baseman of All Time.

Dear lord.

[Basketball Jesus]

You have to love how his most underrated player is probably one of the most overrated players in the game.

[bigboy1234]

Pat Neshek the best reliever? Come on BG, you've gone off the deep end. Now Heath Bell, theres an underrated reliever. As for starters, Erik Bedard. Magglio probably isn't talked about because he's been an average corner OF the past 3 years. An OF who is underrated I think is Swisher.

[HCYanks]

It's starting to urk me how every broadcaster/sports writer is giving Youkilis the "underrated" tag. He's been great, and everyone who pays attention knows it.

Jayson Stark baffles me. He's great sometimes and moronic at other times.

[Griff83]

Polanco easily.

[Ex-hippie]

Both Stark's "most overrated" and "most underrated" lists were frustrating to read for their lack of consistent criteria. He seems to have a good, forward-thinking view of how to evaluate players... then you read things like his review of Placido Polanco, where batting average + few strikeouts + "being a winner" = greatness.

[mets87]

pedro feliciano

[WEFFPIM]

How are Roy Oswalt, Trevor Hoffman, Jake Peavy, and Travis Hafner underrated?

The only one I guess I really agree with on that list is Joe Nathan, who never gets any credit that he deserves.

[Modern_epic]

I think that Alex Rios kid is the most underrated guy in baseball; he's got a sweet stance.

(Seriously though, kid is the best position player on the Jays this year. If he could only take a walk....)

[34Celtic]

Orlando Cabrera
Orlando Hudson
Hanley Ramirez
Polanco

[Basketball Jesus]

For the record, Bobby Grich is the most underrated second baseman of all time.[/belated diatribe]

[34Celtic]

For the record, Bobby Grich is the most underrated second baseman of all time.[/belated diatribe]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/grichbo01.shtml

[Ex-hippie]

Ten players who are legitimately underrated -- more so than Stark's list -- in no particular order:

Lyle Overbay. Professional hitter who keeps on producing.

Todd Helton. Said to be in decline merely because he's not the fantasy superstar he was a few years ago, and he's definitely overpaid; but still one of the elite on-base guys in the league. One of those "so overrated he's underrated" players.

Dave Bush. Terrible luck on balls in play, both this year and last year, but has pitched well enough to be a workhorse starter. The ERA will come way, way down with just a bit more luck.

Takashi Saito. Forget about Nathan -- he gets tons of credit. What about Saito, who's been lights-out since coming over from Japan? Or how about...

JJ Putz. One of the best for about two seasons now; never mentioned in the same breath as the top closers.

Adam Dunn. Catches way too much grief for those strikeouts and for not getting RBIs. The former are almost irrelevant and the latter aren't his fault. He's an on-base machine and one of the best power hitters in baseball. Like Helton, he's become a "so overrated he's underrated" player.

Russell Martin. Did you know it was possible for a player to be the best in the league at his position, play in LA, and still be underrated? Turns out it is... just ask Martin.

Ian Snell. Having a breakout season that no one is noticing because he is in Pittsburgh.

Milton Bradley. Labeled as a headcase, and he's definitely fragile, but he is (as they would say over at firejoemorgan) really good at baseball.

Kelvim Escobar. Overlooked in a rotation with Colon, Lackey and Santana. But when he's healthy, his stuff may be the best of the bunch.

[Ex-hippie]

And an eleventh:

Rafael Soriano. Got traded (albeit by the league's least astute GM) for Horacio Ramirez and has been setting up the "underrated" Bob Wickman this season.

[Basketball Jesus]

Ten players who are legitimately overrated -- more so than Stark's list -- in no particular order:

You mean underrated, right?


Good list, to which I'd add:


Scot Shields - Probably one of the most versatile and consistent relievers in the game. Better than Linebrink, who seems to get all the press for some reason.

Ryan Church - It only took three seasons but the Nationals finally realized this guy can hit and deserves a spot in the everyday line-up.

Josh Willingham - EqAs of .285, .298, .312 from 2005-2007.

[SmallTownJournalist303]

+1 to Todd Helton. He's arguably the best first baseman in baseball at this point in the season and no one knows it.