The GTFO Jimmy Thread

[clyde21]

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/what-49ers-can-expect-receive-jimmy-garoppolo-trade

The bottom line is that the 49ers can be expected to receive at worst a second-round draft pick and, perhaps, another pick or two for Garoppolo to clear the way for Lance to take over as the starter this year.

While this is his opinion, rather than what he is hearing from team sources, Maiocco is pretty reputable. So he's probably not too far off in his assessment here.

I mean I've heard a lot of people speculate even a 1st and teams will be hot on his chase.

Proven winner, amazing attitude, fantastic teammate.

Some teams are going to walk out without a QB this offseason and pay for him. And the Niners could definitely use those picks for depth.

if we can get a 2nd or two that'd be dope

[thesack12]

Like with beathard or Mullens or hover? Any qb would have been better?

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk

Mullens is a better option, Gardner Minshew is a better option, Sam Darnold is a better option, Jameis Winston is a better option. Amazingly all of these were actually bandied about at one time.

Like you said insert any random QB, and they would surely be better options.

IMO Jameis is indeed better

I disagree.

While Winston led the NFL in yardage in 2019, he also led the NFL in interceptions as well. His 30 picks that year were the most in a season since Testaverde threw 34 INT's in 1988, 31 years prior. Winston's 30 Int's are also the 7th most in a single season in NFL history.

His Completion % is also poor. He's only carrying a career 61.2% . Even in 2019 when he led the NFL in yardage his completion % was a lowly 60.7, which was 28th in the league. Its also important to note that Winston led the league in pass attempts in 2019, so his yardage accrued is largely a product of shear volume.

I also have to wonder just how valuable he is around league circles. He ended up taking a league minimum contract to back up Brees in 2020. Which tells me he didn't have a whole lot of options. Winston took a 1 year $5.5 mil contract to play for the Saints in 2021. Even with Brees retiring, Jameis still wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into the season, he had to compete with Taysom Hill, who has never been a full time QB in the NFL.

To conclude Winston is absolutely massively more physically gifted than Garoppolo, but Winstons' physical gifts and raw talent have not translated into him being a high quality NFL Quarterback.

[CrimsonCrew]

Mullens is a better option, Gardner Minshew is a better option, Sam Darnold is a better option, Jameis Winston is a better option. Amazingly all of these were actually bandied about at one time.

Like you said insert any random QB, and they would surely be better options.

IMO Jameis is indeed better

I disagree.

While Winston led the NFL in yardage in 2019, he also led the NFL in interceptions as well. His 30 picks that year were the most in a season since Testaverde threw 34 INT's in 1988, 31 years prior. Winston's 30 Int's are also the 7th most in a single season in NFL history.

His Completion % is also poor. He's only carrying a career 61.2% . Even in 2019 when he led the NFL in yardage his completion % was a lowly 60.7, which was 28th in the league. Its also important to note that Winston led the league in pass attempts in 2019, so his yardage accrued is largely a product of shear volume.

I also have to wonder just how valuable he is around league circles. He ended up taking a league minimum contract to back up Brees in 2020. Which tells me he didn't have a whole lot of options. Winston took a 1 year $5.5 mil contract to play for the Saints in 2021. Even with Brees retiring, Jameis still wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into the season, he had to compete with Taysom Hill, who has never been a full time QB in the NFL.

To conclude Winston is absolutely massively more physically gifted than Garoppolo, but Winstons' physical gifts and raw talent have not translated into him being a high quality NFL Quarterback.

I am absolutely not saying that I would take Jameis Winston over Garoppolo, but I don't think it's fair to Winston to look at his career as a whole and draw broad conclusions based on that. Winston was a bad fit in Arians' system, which calls for taking chances. He did that, and it ended disastrously.

However, playing in a more conservative, run-focused offense this year (similar to what Garoppolo has played in for basically his entire career as a starter), he was really quite good. His completion percentage was still low, but he was throwing to maybe the worst collection of receivers in the pro game today. And he dramatically reduced his turnovers, throwing three INTs to go along with 14 TDs in seven games, and a 5-2 record. His PFF rating was only one point lower than Garoppolo's despite a lesser supporting cast, and his QBR was markedly higher. He clearly has more physical tools, though his intangibles are likely inferior to Garoppolo's.

Now, seven games is a pretty small sample size - Garoppolo's five games to end 2017 are the best he's ever played, basically - and Winston is coming off a serious injury, but there's plenty of reason to believe that his NFL story isn't over and the best is yet to come (great, now I'm thinking about Kimberly Guilfoyle).

[Pattersonca65]

Lynch and Shanahan pose a conundrum of sorts.

I have vehemently disagreed with a number of their moves in the draft, particularly the earlier rounds (Solomon Thomas, McGlinchey, Pettis, Hurd, Kinlaw, Banks, Sermon, etc., etc.; this is not hindsight, it's what I said at the time, and I'll eat crow on the Foster pick, which I loved). I have also strongly disagreed with a lot of their FA moves (Alexander and Malcolm Smith most prominently; again I was pretty on board with Ford, and that's been a debacle). But at the end of the day, even with those extremely suspect moves, they have built a pretty darn talented roster, particularly if they hit on Lance. It may not be top-5 in the league, but it's definitely top-10, particularly if we don't include QB in the consideration.

I also think that Kyle is not a great head coach, particularly in terms of game management-type stuff. But this team - despite the talent - clearly overperformed toward the end of this year. They were playing way above their talent level in the playoffs, particularly on defense. And ultimately, that speaks to coaching. Now, the fact that the defense rose to the occasion while the offense floundered casts some doubt on Kyle's coaching, but he's the head coach, so if the team is outperforming expectations, he deserves a lot of the credit.

Shanahan and Lynch have done a great job of bringing in a very talented group of position coaches and coordinators. The team is full of high character, passionate, driven players. It's a team that - despite the ugliness at the end of this last game - really has no quit in them. And the FO deserves a lot of the credit for that.

So despite the really frustrating things we've seen from Shanahan in particular at times, we stick with them and hope they can get it right. I just wish he wasn't so damn stubborn and convinced of his own greatness (apparently). He could really stand to delegate some responsibilities, in the personnel area as well as in terms of playcalling and clock management.

I loved Kyle's hiring but grew frustrated with his stubbornness.But you said it right ,Lynch and him assembled a very strong group of coaches and an especially strong move was finding Demeco Ryans for Saleh's place,the defense carried the Niners for the 2nd half on . With the West growing stronger every season Kyle's work needs to be better .

I don't see the west growing stronger. I see it potentially growing weaker over the next few seasons. The Seahawks have the oldest coach in the NFL and a QB close to his mid 30s that relies on speed and elusiveness. The Rams are all in now but face a day of reckoning down the road. Not sure about where Arizona is headed

[Pattersonca65]

IMO Jameis is indeed better

I disagree.

While Winston led the NFL in yardage in 2019, he also led the NFL in interceptions as well. His 30 picks that year were the most in a season since Testaverde threw 34 INT's in 1988, 31 years prior. Winston's 30 Int's are also the 7th most in a single season in NFL history.

His Completion % is also poor. He's only carrying a career 61.2% . Even in 2019 when he led the NFL in yardage his completion % was a lowly 60.7, which was 28th in the league. Its also important to note that Winston led the league in pass attempts in 2019, so his yardage accrued is largely a product of shear volume.

I also have to wonder just how valuable he is around league circles. He ended up taking a league minimum contract to back up Brees in 2020. Which tells me he didn't have a whole lot of options. Winston took a 1 year $5.5 mil contract to play for the Saints in 2021. Even with Brees retiring, Jameis still wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into the season, he had to compete with Taysom Hill, who has never been a full time QB in the NFL.

To conclude Winston is absolutely massively more physically gifted than Garoppolo, but Winstons' physical gifts and raw talent have not translated into him being a high quality NFL Quarterback.

I am absolutely not saying that I would take Jameis Winston over Garoppolo, but I don't think it's fair to Winston to look at his career as a whole and draw broad conclusions based on that. Winston was a bad fit in Arians' system, which calls for taking chances. He did that, and it ended disastrously.

However, playing in a more conservative, run-focused offense this year (similar to what Garoppolo has played in for basically his entire career as a starter), he was really quite good. His completion percentage was still low, but he was throwing to maybe the worst collection of receivers in the pro game today. And he dramatically reduced his turnovers, throwing three INTs to go along with 14 TDs in seven games, and a 5-2 record. His PFF rating was only one point lower than Garoppolo's despite a lesser supporting cast, and his QBR was markedly higher. He clearly has more physical tools, though his intangibles are likely inferior to Garoppolo's.

Now, seven games is a pretty small sample size - Garoppolo's five games to end 2017 are the best he's ever played, basically - and Winston is coming off a serious injury, but there's plenty of reason to believe that his NFL story isn't over and the best is yet to come (great, now I'm thinking about Kimberly Guilfoyle).

I wouldn't take JW over JG. He makes even JGs blunders look mild

[CrimsonCrew]

I disagree.

While Winston led the NFL in yardage in 2019, he also led the NFL in interceptions as well. His 30 picks that year were the most in a season since Testaverde threw 34 INT's in 1988, 31 years prior. Winston's 30 Int's are also the 7th most in a single season in NFL history.

His Completion % is also poor. He's only carrying a career 61.2% . Even in 2019 when he led the NFL in yardage his completion % was a lowly 60.7, which was 28th in the league. Its also important to note that Winston led the league in pass attempts in 2019, so his yardage accrued is largely a product of shear volume.

I also have to wonder just how valuable he is around league circles. He ended up taking a league minimum contract to back up Brees in 2020. Which tells me he didn't have a whole lot of options. Winston took a 1 year $5.5 mil contract to play for the Saints in 2021. Even with Brees retiring, Jameis still wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into the season, he had to compete with Taysom Hill, who has never been a full time QB in the NFL.

To conclude Winston is absolutely massively more physically gifted than Garoppolo, but Winstons' physical gifts and raw talent have not translated into him being a high quality NFL Quarterback.

I am absolutely not saying that I would take Jameis Winston over Garoppolo, but I don't think it's fair to Winston to look at his career as a whole and draw broad conclusions based on that. Winston was a bad fit in Arians' system, which calls for taking chances. He did that, and it ended disastrously.

However, playing in a more conservative, run-focused offense this year (similar to what Garoppolo has played in for basically his entire career as a starter), he was really quite good. His completion percentage was still low, but he was throwing to maybe the worst collection of receivers in the pro game today. And he dramatically reduced his turnovers, throwing three INTs to go along with 14 TDs in seven games, and a 5-2 record. His PFF rating was only one point lower than Garoppolo's despite a lesser supporting cast, and his QBR was markedly higher. He clearly has more physical tools, though his intangibles are likely inferior to Garoppolo's.

Now, seven games is a pretty small sample size - Garoppolo's five games to end 2017 are the best he's ever played, basically - and Winston is coming off a serious injury, but there's plenty of reason to believe that his NFL story isn't over and the best is yet to come (great, now I'm thinking about Kimberly Guilfoyle).

I wouldn't take JW over JG. He makes even JGs blunders look mild

I haven't watched much of Jameis, and maybe none of him on the Saints this year. But given what we saw of Jimmy down the stretch, I find that somewhat hard to believe.

[thesack12]

I disagree.

While Winston led the NFL in yardage in 2019, he also led the NFL in interceptions as well. His 30 picks that year were the most in a season since Testaverde threw 34 INT's in 1988, 31 years prior. Winston's 30 Int's are also the 7th most in a single season in NFL history.

His Completion % is also poor. He's only carrying a career 61.2% . Even in 2019 when he led the NFL in yardage his completion % was a lowly 60.7, which was 28th in the league. Its also important to note that Winston led the league in pass attempts in 2019, so his yardage accrued is largely a product of shear volume.

I also have to wonder just how valuable he is around league circles. He ended up taking a league minimum contract to back up Brees in 2020. Which tells me he didn't have a whole lot of options. Winston took a 1 year $5.5 mil contract to play for the Saints in 2021. Even with Brees retiring, Jameis still wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into the season, he had to compete with Taysom Hill, who has never been a full time QB in the NFL.

To conclude Winston is absolutely massively more physically gifted than Garoppolo, but Winstons' physical gifts and raw talent have not translated into him being a high quality NFL Quarterback.

I am absolutely not saying that I would take Jameis Winston over Garoppolo, but I don't think it's fair to Winston to look at his career as a whole and draw broad conclusions based on that. Winston was a bad fit in Arians' system, which calls for taking chances. He did that, and it ended disastrously.

However, playing in a more conservative, run-focused offense this year (similar to what Garoppolo has played in for basically his entire career as a starter), he was really quite good. His completion percentage was still low, but he was throwing to maybe the worst collection of receivers in the pro game today. And he dramatically reduced his turnovers, throwing three INTs to go along with 14 TDs in seven games, and a 5-2 record. His PFF rating was only one point lower than Garoppolo's despite a lesser supporting cast, and his QBR was markedly higher. He clearly has more physical tools, though his intangibles are likely inferior to Garoppolo's.

Now, seven games is a pretty small sample size - Garoppolo's five games to end 2017 are the best he's ever played, basically - and Winston is coming off a serious injury, but there's plenty of reason to believe that his NFL story isn't over and the best is yet to come (great, now I'm thinking about Kimberly Guilfoyle).

I wouldn't take JW over JG. He makes even JGs blunders look mild

This!

Winston led the NFL in turnovers from 2015-2019 with 111. That is in 72 games played, which is north of 1.5 turnovers per game.

In that 2019 season in addition to Winston's 30 picks, he also lost 5 fumbles. Those 35 turnovers led to 112 points off those turnovers. That all amounts to Committing 2.18 turnovers per game and allowing 7 points off of them per game. That is about as backbreaking as you can get.

Think about that, in 2019 Winston spotted a team 2 possessions & 7 points every single game he played. That ummm, does not equate to having a positive impact on winning football games.

Its really not hard to see why Arians wanted to move away from Winston, even before they knew they had a shot at Brady. It also very much appears like the NFL as a whole was not high on Winston either. He settled for a 1 year minimum contract with New Orleans to backup Brees and by comparison in the same offseason his class mate Marcus Mariota signed a 2 year $17.6 mil contract to backup Derek Carr.

I just have a hard time comprehending how someone can bemoan Jimmy's decision making, turnovers, mistakes, then try to make a case that Winston would have been a better option.

[CrimsonCrew]

I am absolutely not saying that I would take Jameis Winston over Garoppolo, but I don't think it's fair to Winston to look at his career as a whole and draw broad conclusions based on that. Winston was a bad fit in Arians' system, which calls for taking chances. He did that, and it ended disastrously.

However, playing in a more conservative, run-focused offense this year (similar to what Garoppolo has played in for basically his entire career as a starter), he was really quite good. His completion percentage was still low, but he was throwing to maybe the worst collection of receivers in the pro game today. And he dramatically reduced his turnovers, throwing three INTs to go along with 14 TDs in seven games, and a 5-2 record. His PFF rating was only one point lower than Garoppolo's despite a lesser supporting cast, and his QBR was markedly higher. He clearly has more physical tools, though his intangibles are likely inferior to Garoppolo's.

Now, seven games is a pretty small sample size - Garoppolo's five games to end 2017 are the best he's ever played, basically - and Winston is coming off a serious injury, but there's plenty of reason to believe that his NFL story isn't over and the best is yet to come (great, now I'm thinking about Kimberly Guilfoyle).

I wouldn't take JW over JG. He makes even JGs blunders look mild

This!

Winston led the NFL in turnovers from 2015-2019 with 111. That is in 72 games played, which is north of 1.5 turnovers per game.

In that 2019 season in addition to Winston's 30 picks, he also lost 5 fumbles. Those 35 turnovers led to 112 points off those turnovers. That all amounts to Committing 2.18 turnovers per game and allowing 7 points off of them per game. That is about as backbreaking as you can get.

Think about that, in 2019 Winston spotted a team 2 possessions & 7 points every single game he played. That ummm, does not equate to having a positive impact on winning football games.

Its really not hard to see why Arians wanted to move away from Winston, even before they knew they had a shot at Brady. It also very much appears like the NFL as a whole was not high on Winston either. He settled for a 1 year minimum contract with New Orleans to backup Brees and by comparison in the same offseason his class mate Marcus Mariota signed a 2 year $17.6 mil contract to backup Derek Carr.

I just have a hard time comprehending how someone can bemoan Jimmy's decision making, turnovers, mistakes, then try to make a case that Winston would have been a better option.

Again, mostly playing devil's advocate here as I don't believe Jameis is better than Jimmy, but I think a healthy Jameis is arguably closer than you think.

Jameis' biggest issue by far has been his turnovers. But that's a problem Jimmy also has. Now, look, the Jameis Winston who came out of TB was historically bad at protecting the football. No one is saying that's a guy any team would take over Jimmy. But that was Jameis in an aggressive, downfield passing offense that he played very poorly in. Again, when put in a more QB-friendly offense, he excelled.

I think a lot of Jameis' statistical struggles can be attributed to that Arians offense. It was an aggressive, downfield attack. In 2018 and 2019, his average depth of target was well over 10 (10.8 and 10.4 respectively). I don't have access to those metrics before that. By contrast, Jimmy has never cracked 9 yards (8.9 on only 89 attempts pre-injury in 2018), and has usually been three or even four yards lower per attempt (6.5 in 2019, 6.3 in 2020, 7.5 in 2021). That is a dramatic difference, and one that you would expect to result in a lower completion percentage and more picks. His career interception rate of 3.3% is very high, but Garoppolo is nipping at his heels at 2.7% despite playing in a much more conservative offense for basically his entire career.

This past season, Winston was in a system that clearly catered better to his strengths and better masked his weaknesses. His ADOT fell to 8.3, and with is, his INT rate fell to 1.9. That's almost a full point lower than Jimmy's during his five-game stretch in 2017.

As for fumbles, again, TB Jameis was awful, with 15, 12, and 10 fumbles in his seasons there. But Jimmy, playing in a system that relies much less on deep passing and emphasizes getting the ball out quickly, has seasons with 10 and 8 fumbles. In 2019, Jimmy had 10 fumbles on 558 touches (passes + sacks + rushes). That's a fumble every 55.8 touches. He was worse this year, with 8 on 368 touches, good for one every 46 touches. In Jameis' awful 2019, he had 12 fumbles on 732 touches, or once every 61 touches. In his worst fumbling season, Winston fumbled about once every 34 touches, which is astronomically high. But generally speaking, he and Jimmy are in the same ballpark in terms of ball security, and both are lacking.

In terms of how someone could advocate for Winston while bemoaning Garoppolo's turnovers, Garoppolo turns it over at a very high rate despite the offense he plays in. It's almost certainly his biggest issue as a player. You could live with the limited skills if he executed at a very high level and rarely made mistakes. However, he makes mistakes constantly. Winston also makes a ton of mistakes, but he brings high level upside along with it. He has physical tools that Garoppolo couldn't dream of, and in his most recent opportunity, he corrected a lot of the failings he showed earlier in his career.

The contract he signed is basically irrelevant. Players get overpaid or underpaid - often dramatically - every year.

Again, I'm not saying Winston will be better going forward, but I will say that it wouldn't shock me if he was, if he lands in the right situation.

[Pattersonca65]

I am absolutely not saying that I would take Jameis Winston over Garoppolo, but I don't think it's fair to Winston to look at his career as a whole and draw broad conclusions based on that. Winston was a bad fit in Arians' system, which calls for taking chances. He did that, and it ended disastrously.

However, playing in a more conservative, run-focused offense this year (similar to what Garoppolo has played in for basically his entire career as a starter), he was really quite good. His completion percentage was still low, but he was throwing to maybe the worst collection of receivers in the pro game today. And he dramatically reduced his turnovers, throwing three INTs to go along with 14 TDs in seven games, and a 5-2 record. His PFF rating was only one point lower than Garoppolo's despite a lesser supporting cast, and his QBR was markedly higher. He clearly has more physical tools, though his intangibles are likely inferior to Garoppolo's.

Now, seven games is a pretty small sample size - Garoppolo's five games to end 2017 are the best he's ever played, basically - and Winston is coming off a serious injury, but there's plenty of reason to believe that his NFL story isn't over and the best is yet to come (great, now I'm thinking about Kimberly Guilfoyle).

I wouldn't take JW over JG. He makes even JGs blunders look mild

This!

Winston led the NFL in turnovers from 2015-2019 with 111. That is in 72 games played, which is north of 1.5 turnovers per game.

In that 2019 season in addition to Winston's 30 picks, he also lost 5 fumbles. Those 35 turnovers led to 112 points off those turnovers. That all amounts to Committing 2.18 turnovers per game and allowing 7 points off of them per game. That is about as backbreaking as you can get.

Think about that, in 2019 Winston spotted a team 2 possessions & 7 points every single game he played. That ummm, does not equate to having a positive impact on winning football games.

Its really not hard to see why Arians wanted to move away from Winston, even before they knew they had a shot at Brady. It also very much appears like the NFL as a whole was not high on Winston either. He settled for a 1 year minimum contract with New Orleans to backup Brees and by comparison in the same offseason his class mate Marcus Mariota signed a 2 year $17.6 mil contract to backup Derek Carr.

I just have a hard time comprehending how someone can bemoan Jimmy's decision making, turnovers, mistakes, then try to make a case that Winston would have been a better option.

I have watched him throw some real bone headed ones also.

[thesack12]

I wouldn't take JW over JG. He makes even JGs blunders look mild

This!

Winston led the NFL in turnovers from 2015-2019 with 111. That is in 72 games played, which is north of 1.5 turnovers per game.

In that 2019 season in addition to Winston's 30 picks, he also lost 5 fumbles. Those 35 turnovers led to 112 points off those turnovers. That all amounts to Committing 2.18 turnovers per game and allowing 7 points off of them per game. That is about as backbreaking as you can get.

Think about that, in 2019 Winston spotted a team 2 possessions & 7 points every single game he played. That ummm, does not equate to having a positive impact on winning football games.

Its really not hard to see why Arians wanted to move away from Winston, even before they knew they had a shot at Brady. It also very much appears like the NFL as a whole was not high on Winston either. He settled for a 1 year minimum contract with New Orleans to backup Brees and by comparison in the same offseason his class mate Marcus Mariota signed a 2 year $17.6 mil contract to backup Derek Carr.

I just have a hard time comprehending how someone can bemoan Jimmy's decision making, turnovers, mistakes, then try to make a case that Winston would have been a better option.

Again, mostly playing devil's advocate here as I don't believe Jameis is better than Jimmy, but I think a healthy Jameis is arguably closer than you think.

Jameis' biggest issue by far has been his turnovers. But that's a problem Jimmy also has. Now, look, the Jameis Winston who came out of TB was historically bad at protecting the football. No one is saying that's a guy any team would take over Jimmy. But that was Jameis in an aggressive, downfield passing offense that he played very poorly in. Again, when put in a more QB-friendly offense, he excelled.

I think a lot of Jameis' statistical struggles can be attributed to that Arians offense. It was an aggressive, downfield attack. In 2018 and 2019, his average depth of target was well over 10 (10.8 and 10.4 respectively). I don't have access to those metrics before that. By contrast, Jimmy has never cracked 9 yards (8.9 on only 89 attempts pre-injury in 2018), and has usually been three or even four yards lower per attempt (6.5 in 2019, 6.3 in 2020, 7.5 in 2021). That is a dramatic difference, and one that you would expect to result in a lower completion percentage and more picks. His career interception rate of 3.3% is very high, but Garoppolo is nipping at his heels at 2.7% despite playing in a much more conservative offense for basically his entire career.

This past season, Winston was in a system that clearly catered better to his strengths and better masked his weaknesses. His ADOT fell to 8.3, and with is, his INT rate fell to 1.9. That's almost a full point lower than Jimmy's during his five-game stretch in 2017.

As for fumbles, again, TB Jameis was awful, with 15, 12, and 10 fumbles in his seasons there. But Jimmy, playing in a system that relies much less on deep passing and emphasizes getting the ball out quickly, has seasons with 10 and 8 fumbles. In 2019, Jimmy had 10 fumbles on 558 touches (passes + sacks + rushes). That's a fumble every 55.8 touches. He was worse this year, with 8 on 368 touches, good for one every 46 touches. In Jameis' awful 2019, he had 12 fumbles on 732 touches, or once every 61 touches. In his worst fumbling season, Winston fumbled about once every 34 touches, which is astronomically high. But generally speaking, he and Jimmy are in the same ballpark in terms of ball security, and both are lacking.

In terms of how someone could advocate for Winston while bemoaning Garoppolo's turnovers, Garoppolo turns it over at a very high rate despite the offense he plays in. It's almost certainly his biggest issue as a player. You could live with the limited skills if he executed at a very high level and rarely made mistakes. However, he makes mistakes constantly. Winston also makes a ton of mistakes, but he brings high level upside along with it. He has physical tools that Garoppolo couldn't dream of, and in his most recent opportunity, he corrected a lot of the failings he showed earlier in his career.

The contract he signed is basically irrelevant. Players get overpaid or underpaid - often dramatically - every year.

Again, I'm not saying Winston will be better going forward, but I will say that it wouldn't shock me if he was, if he lands in the right situation.

2019 stats of interest to me:

In 2019 the 49ers were #1 NFL in explosive pass plays with 12%, Tampa was tied for #2 with 11%.
Jimmy's yards/attempt was 8.4 (2nd), Winston's was 8.1 (4th)
Jimmy's net yards/Attempt was 7.4 (3rd), Winston's was 7.2 (4th)
49ers yards gained per pass play was 6.0 (5th), Tampa's was 5.9 (6th)
Jimmy's pass TD % was 5.8%, Jameis was 5.2%
Jimmy's bad throw % was 13.7 (4th), Winston was 20.6 (29th)
Jimmy's yards per completion was 12.2 (6th), Winston's was 13.4 (1st)

So the 49ers actually had a more successful/effective/efficient passing game than the Buccaneers.

All these stats just further strengthen my opinion that Air yards/depth of target, etc are quite over-rated. Despite the shorter more conservative passing system Jimmy's 49ers are always able to be successful moving the ball and gain yards. In fact in his healthy years, the 49ers passing attack are rated in the very tippy top of the NFL.

While air yards/depth of target are important, I'm not trying to say they aren't, I just don't see Jimmy's short game being nearly as much of a detriment to the overall offense as some people make it out to be. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL at moving the football, and getting those explosive plays as well. Its just not as exciting or pretty as we all would like to see.

As for turnovers, of course Jimmy struggles with those. A lot of QB's do. But for me, when trying to compare a guy that literally lead the league in most turnover metrics for several years it makes that segment of the discussion a non-starter. The idea is to talk about who might be a better option here.

You're right, Winston's career is not over and we may have yet to see his best football. But that cuts both ways as well. We might not have seen Jimbo's best football either. Winston has 77 starts under his belt, Jimmy only has 47. So in essence, Winston has almost 2 seasons more experience. So his upside/potential argument is deteriorating quickly, he's more likely than not already close to his ceiling.

As for contract, I VERY much disagree that its irrelevant. This league is perpetually starved for QB's. Therefore they routinely get drastically overpaid and a lot of guys get many more bites at the apple than they deserve. So the fact that Winston took a 1 year minimum to be a backup, tells me that he is probably not all that highly regarded around the NFL and didn't have too many options. Even with him returning to the Saints this past season, he only got $5.5 mil guaranteed which is peanuts for a QB, and wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into training camp. He had to beat out Taysom (offensive weapon, not a full time QB) Hill. We'll see what kind of market/opportunities he will find this offseason.

[CrimsonCrew]

2019 stats of interest to me:

In 2019 the 49ers were #1 NFL in explosive pass plays with 12%, Tampa was tied for #2 with 11%.
Jimmy's yards/attempt was 8.4 (2nd), Winston's was 8.1 (4th)
Jimmy's net yards/Attempt was 7.4 (3rd), Winston's was 7.2 (4th)
49ers yards gained per pass play was 6.0 (5th), Tampa's was 5.9 (6th)
Jimmy's pass TD % was 5.8%, Jameis was 5.2%
Jimmy's bad throw % was 13.7 (4th), Winston was 20.6 (29th)
Jimmy's yards per completion was 12.2 (6th), Winston's was 13.4 (1st)

So the 49ers actually had a more successful/effective/efficient passing game than the Buccaneers.

All these stats just further strengthen my opinion that Air yards/depth of target, etc are quite over-rated. Despite the shorter more conservative passing system Jimmy's 49ers are always able to be successful moving the ball and gain yards. In fact in his healthy years, the 49ers passing attack are rated in the very tippy top of the NFL.

While air yards/depth of target are important, I'm not trying to say they aren't, I just don't see Jimmy's short game being nearly as much of a detriment to the overall offense as some people make it out to be. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL at moving the football, and getting those explosive plays as well. Its just not as exciting or pretty as we all would like to see.

As for turnovers, of course Jimmy struggles with those. A lot of QB's do. But for me, when trying to compare a guy that literally lead the league in most turnover metrics for several years it makes that segment of the discussion a non-starter. The idea is to talk about who might be a better option here.

You're right, Winston's career is not over and we may have yet to see his best football. But that cuts both ways as well. We might not have seen Jimbo's best football either. Winston has 77 starts under his belt, Jimmy only has 47. So in essence, Winston has almost 2 seasons more experience. So his upside/potential argument is deteriorating quickly, he's more likely than not already close to his ceiling.

As for contract, I VERY much disagree that its irrelevant. This league is perpetually starved for QB's. Therefore they routinely get drastically overpaid and a lot of guys get many more bites at the apple than they deserve. So the fact that Winston took a 1 year minimum to be a backup, tells me that he is probably not all that highly regarded around the NFL and didn't have too many options. Even with him returning to the Saints this past season, he only got $5.5 mil guaranteed which is peanuts for a QB, and wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into training camp. He had to beat out Taysom (offensive weapon, not a full time QB) Hill. We'll see what kind of market/opportunities he will find this offseason.

I credit our offensive scheme for that success more than I do Garoppolo. Hell, Mullens was arguably more productive in generating explosive plays than Garoppolo was, though he didn't win games. And it's hard to say that Jimmy's 49ers are "always" able to be successful moving the ball when we're coming out of a postseason when we had two passing TDs, failed to crack 20 points twice (granted weather influenced that in one game), and the season ended in a three-point loss because we had two consecutive drives that failed to generate a single yard of offense - on the heels of a drive that petered out after losing yardage on 2nd and 1.

Sure Jimmy doesn't have all that many starts, but he's been in the league for years now, and his career trajectory has plateaued. It may have even regressed a bit. On the other hand, Winston was thrust onto the field before he was ready, was overwhelmed initially, but is coming off what is almost certainly his best seven-game span as a pro. Of the two, it's pretty clear that he has more room to grow, though again, far from a guarantee he'll take those strides or land in a situation where he can.

As far as the contract, again, it is irrelevant what he signed for two years ago. At that time, he was coming off a season in which he was a turnover machine. It's like arguing that the Chiefs were crazy to trade for Alex Smith in the 2013 offseason because he was awful in the 2010 season (and every prior season). However, like Smith in 2011 and 2012, Winston showed that in the right situation, he could rein in those bad decisions and protect the football. It's not a perfect analogy, as Smith played a lot more games in that span and wasn't coming off injury, but it's pretty close. A healthy Winston would get more than Mariota this year for sure, assuming he more or less maintained the level of play he exhibited over the first seven weeks, and would likely be looking at a pretty significant offer somewhere.

[thesack12]

2019 stats of interest to me:

In 2019 the 49ers were #1 NFL in explosive pass plays with 12%, Tampa was tied for #2 with 11%.
Jimmy's yards/attempt was 8.4 (2nd), Winston's was 8.1 (4th)
Jimmy's net yards/Attempt was 7.4 (3rd), Winston's was 7.2 (4th)
49ers yards gained per pass play was 6.0 (5th), Tampa's was 5.9 (6th)
Jimmy's pass TD % was 5.8%, Jameis was 5.2%
Jimmy's bad throw % was 13.7 (4th), Winston was 20.6 (29th)
Jimmy's yards per completion was 12.2 (6th), Winston's was 13.4 (1st)

So the 49ers actually had a more successful/effective/efficient passing game than the Buccaneers.

All these stats just further strengthen my opinion that Air yards/depth of target, etc are quite over-rated. Despite the shorter more conservative passing system Jimmy's 49ers are always able to be successful moving the ball and gain yards. In fact in his healthy years, the 49ers passing attack are rated in the very tippy top of the NFL.

While air yards/depth of target are important, I'm not trying to say they aren't, I just don't see Jimmy's short game being nearly as much of a detriment to the overall offense as some people make it out to be. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL at moving the football, and getting those explosive plays as well. Its just not as exciting or pretty as we all would like to see.

As for turnovers, of course Jimmy struggles with those. A lot of QB's do. But for me, when trying to compare a guy that literally lead the league in most turnover metrics for several years it makes that segment of the discussion a non-starter. The idea is to talk about who might be a better option here.

You're right, Winston's career is not over and we may have yet to see his best football. But that cuts both ways as well. We might not have seen Jimbo's best football either. Winston has 77 starts under his belt, Jimmy only has 47. So in essence, Winston has almost 2 seasons more experience. So his upside/potential argument is deteriorating quickly, he's more likely than not already close to his ceiling.

As for contract, I VERY much disagree that its irrelevant. This league is perpetually starved for QB's. Therefore they routinely get drastically overpaid and a lot of guys get many more bites at the apple than they deserve. So the fact that Winston took a 1 year minimum to be a backup, tells me that he is probably not all that highly regarded around the NFL and didn't have too many options. Even with him returning to the Saints this past season, he only got $5.5 mil guaranteed which is peanuts for a QB, and wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into training camp. He had to beat out Taysom (offensive weapon, not a full time QB) Hill. We'll see what kind of market/opportunities he will find this offseason.

I credit our offensive scheme for that success more than I do Garoppolo. Hell, Mullens was arguably more productive in generating explosive plays than Garoppolo was, though he didn't win games. And it's hard to say that Jimmy's 49ers are "always" able to be successful moving the ball when we're coming out of a postseason when we had two passing TDs, failed to crack 20 points twice (granted weather influenced that in one game), and the season ended in a three-point loss because we had two consecutive drives that failed to generate a single yard of offense - on the heels of a drive that petered out after losing yardage on 2nd and 1.

Sure Jimmy doesn't have all that many starts, but he's been in the league for years now, and his career trajectory has plateaued. It may have even regressed a bit. On the other hand, Winston was thrust onto the field before he was ready, was overwhelmed initially, but is coming off what is almost certainly his best seven-game span as a pro. Of the two, it's pretty clear that he has more room to grow, though again, far from a guarantee he'll take those strides or land in a situation where he can.

As far as the contract, again, it is irrelevant what he signed for two years ago. At that time, he was coming off a season in which he was a turnover machine. It's like arguing that the Chiefs were crazy to trade for Alex Smith in the 2013 offseason because he was awful in the 2010 season (and every prior season). However, like Smith in 2011 and 2012, Winston showed that in the right situation, he could rein in those bad decisions and protect the football. It's not a perfect analogy, as Smith played a lot more games in that span and wasn't coming off injury, but it's pretty close. A healthy Winston would get more than Mariota this year for sure, assuming he more or less maintained the level of play he exhibited over the first seven weeks, and would likely be looking at a pretty significant offer somewhere.

Yeah, I'm aware that people are allergic to giving Jimmy any credit whatsoever.

As for explosive plays 9ers were #1 in 2019, #1 in 2021 and #11 in 2020. So no, Nick Mullens was not able to supply the same amount of explosive plays.

The season long averages speak for themselves, and with Jimmy at the helm 9ers have always been at the top of offensive metrics and being able to move the ball. #1 in yards per play overall and #1 in pass yards per play this year, btw.

I also realize there is this myth out there that in obvious pass situations Jimmy wilts and falls on his face and he isn't clutch. But lets look into this a bit...

In 15 regular season games Jimmy played, 9ers scored 57 Points (6 TD's, 5 FG's) in the final 2 minutes before halftime. So they got points before just before the half in 11/15 games, which is remarkably good. However, they only got 3 points in such situations in the playoffs.

Week 3 vs packers: 9ers down 6 with 2:39 left. Go on a 8 play 75 yard Go ahead TD drive. D can't hold in the final 37 seconds.
Week 13 @ Seattle: 9ers down 7 with 4:03 left. Go on a 12 play 95 yard drive, Sherfield gets mugged in the end zone but no flag
Week 14 @ Cincy: Tie game with 1:19 left. Go on a 10 play 50 yard drive and Gould misses the GW 47 yard FG
Week 14 @ Cincy: Down by 3 in OT needing to score a TD. 9ers go on a 7 play 75 yard GW TD drive
Week 18 @ Rams (Have to win to get into the playoffs): Down by 7 with 1:27 left. 9ers go 5 plays 88 yard game tying TD drive
Week 18 @ Rams: Tie game in OT go on a 9 play 62 yard FG drive that winds up being a GW drive.
Playoffs @ Green Bay: Sub zero temps with snow flying: Tie game with 3:20 left. 9ers go on 9 play 44 yard GW FG drive.

Speaking of the Green Bay playoff game, we're not going put any thought into the 3 egregious drops by Aiyuk/Kittle/Jennings? Any of which if caught probably changes the flow of that game (most especially Kittle's.) As for the 2nd and 1 situation in the NFCCG, are we really going to pin losing yardage on running plays on 2nd @ 3rd down on Jimmy? Allrighty then, tough crowd.

Obviously, there are several games to look back on where Jimmy and the 9ers didn't get the job done in crunch time/obvious passing situations. My point is, the myth that the 49ers win games mostly despite Jimmy Garoppolo is unfounded in reality. The offense is routinely rated at the top of the NFL and the 49ers consistently win games and make deep playoff runs. That just does not happen if your QB is terrible or defenses don't respect your passing game.

To reign this back into a Jameis Winston debate for a minute: As for contracts, Take a look at the QB contracts signed in 2020:

Teddy Bridgewater: 3 years 63 mil
Tom Brady: 2 years 50 mil
Philip Rivers: 1 year 25 mil
Case Keenum: 3 years 18 mil
Marcus Mariota: 2 years 17.6 mil
Chase Daniel: 3 years 13 mil
Jeff Driskel: 2 years 5 mil
Andy Dalton: 1 year 3 mil
Colt McCoy: 1 year 2.2 mil
Cam Newton: 1 year 1.7 mil
Joe Flacco: 1 year 1.5 mil
Geno Smith: 1 year 1.2 mil
Mike Glennon: 1 year 1.2 mil
Blaine Gabbert: 1 year 1.2 mil
Jameis Winston: 1 year 1.1 mil
Matt Moore: 1 year 1 mil
Brian Hoyer: 1 year 1 mil
Brett Hundley: 1 year 1 mil

Looking at that list there is absolutely no way that someone will be able to convince me that contracts are irrelevant. I don't expect to be able to change your mind either, I'm just giving you some data that leads me to my opinion.

While Winston was coming off a 35 Turnover season, it in a lot of ways was also his best season. I just don't see the NFL as valuing Jameis Winston all that highly. Like I said earlier, we will see what kind of market he finds this offseason.

In any event, I'm personally pretty much over talking about Jameis Winston. I'll happily read/consider any rebuttal thoughts you might have, but I'm not really interested in continuing the Winston debate.

[wco81]

More likely is that 49ers have players who are monsters in YAC.

Kittles gets through contact and Deebo is elusive, though he fights for extra yards through contact as well.

But that's also the QB getting the ball to them in space, so they have chance to build up momentum, if not catching it at almost full speed.

QB can't make them reach backwards for the ball or jump for it. Those reduce chances for YAC.

[thesack12]

More likely is that 49ers have players who are monsters in YAC.

Kittles gets through contact and Deebo is elusive, though he fights for extra yards through contact as well.

But that's also the QB getting the ball to them in space, so they have chance to build up momentum, if not catching it at almost full speed.

QB can't make them reach backwards for the ball or jump for it. Those reduce chances for YAC.

+1

This post is 100% accurate.

Trying to dismiss QB play from the YAC equation is using a very short sighted scope.

[CrimsonCrew]

2019 stats of interest to me:

In 2019 the 49ers were #1 NFL in explosive pass plays with 12%, Tampa was tied for #2 with 11%.
Jimmy's yards/attempt was 8.4 (2nd), Winston's was 8.1 (4th)
Jimmy's net yards/Attempt was 7.4 (3rd), Winston's was 7.2 (4th)
49ers yards gained per pass play was 6.0 (5th), Tampa's was 5.9 (6th)
Jimmy's pass TD % was 5.8%, Jameis was 5.2%
Jimmy's bad throw % was 13.7 (4th), Winston was 20.6 (29th)
Jimmy's yards per completion was 12.2 (6th), Winston's was 13.4 (1st)

So the 49ers actually had a more successful/effective/efficient passing game than the Buccaneers.

All these stats just further strengthen my opinion that Air yards/depth of target, etc are quite over-rated. Despite the shorter more conservative passing system Jimmy's 49ers are always able to be successful moving the ball and gain yards. In fact in his healthy years, the 49ers passing attack are rated in the very tippy top of the NFL.

While air yards/depth of target are important, I'm not trying to say they aren't, I just don't see Jimmy's short game being nearly as much of a detriment to the overall offense as some people make it out to be. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL at moving the football, and getting those explosive plays as well. Its just not as exciting or pretty as we all would like to see.

As for turnovers, of course Jimmy struggles with those. A lot of QB's do. But for me, when trying to compare a guy that literally lead the league in most turnover metrics for several years it makes that segment of the discussion a non-starter. The idea is to talk about who might be a better option here.

You're right, Winston's career is not over and we may have yet to see his best football. But that cuts both ways as well. We might not have seen Jimbo's best football either. Winston has 77 starts under his belt, Jimmy only has 47. So in essence, Winston has almost 2 seasons more experience. So his upside/potential argument is deteriorating quickly, he's more likely than not already close to his ceiling.

As for contract, I VERY much disagree that its irrelevant. This league is perpetually starved for QB's. Therefore they routinely get drastically overpaid and a lot of guys get many more bites at the apple than they deserve. So the fact that Winston took a 1 year minimum to be a backup, tells me that he is probably not all that highly regarded around the NFL and didn't have too many options. Even with him returning to the Saints this past season, he only got $5.5 mil guaranteed which is peanuts for a QB, and wasn't even the unquestioned starter going into training camp. He had to beat out Taysom (offensive weapon, not a full time QB) Hill. We'll see what kind of market/opportunities he will find this offseason.

I credit our offensive scheme for that success more than I do Garoppolo. Hell, Mullens was arguably more productive in generating explosive plays than Garoppolo was, though he didn't win games. And it's hard to say that Jimmy's 49ers are "always" able to be successful moving the ball when we're coming out of a postseason when we had two passing TDs, failed to crack 20 points twice (granted weather influenced that in one game), and the season ended in a three-point loss because we had two consecutive drives that failed to generate a single yard of offense - on the heels of a drive that petered out after losing yardage on 2nd and 1.

Sure Jimmy doesn't have all that many starts, but he's been in the league for years now, and his career trajectory has plateaued. It may have even regressed a bit. On the other hand, Winston was thrust onto the field before he was ready, was overwhelmed initially, but is coming off what is almost certainly his best seven-game span as a pro. Of the two, it's pretty clear that he has more room to grow, though again, far from a guarantee he'll take those strides or land in a situation where he can.

As far as the contract, again, it is irrelevant what he signed for two years ago. At that time, he was coming off a season in which he was a turnover machine. It's like arguing that the Chiefs were crazy to trade for Alex Smith in the 2013 offseason because he was awful in the 2010 season (and every prior season). However, like Smith in 2011 and 2012, Winston showed that in the right situation, he could rein in those bad decisions and protect the football. It's not a perfect analogy, as Smith played a lot more games in that span and wasn't coming off injury, but it's pretty close. A healthy Winston would get more than Mariota this year for sure, assuming he more or less maintained the level of play he exhibited over the first seven weeks, and would likely be looking at a pretty significant offer somewhere.

Yeah, I'm aware that people are allergic to giving Jimmy any credit whatsoever.

As for explosive plays 9ers were #1 in 2019, #1 in 2021 and #11 in 2020. So no, Nick Mullens was not able to supply the same amount of explosive plays.

The season long averages speak for themselves, and with Jimmy at the helm 9ers have always been at the top of offensive metrics and being able to move the ball. #1 in yards per play overall and #1 in pass yards per play this year, btw.

I also realize there is this myth out there that in obvious pass situations Jimmy wilts and falls on his face and he isn't clutch. But lets look into this a bit...

In 15 regular season games Jimmy played, 9ers scored 57 Points (6 TD's, 5 FG's) in the final 2 minutes before halftime. So they got points before just before the half in 11/15 games, which is remarkably good. However, they only got 3 points in such situations in the playoffs.

Week 3 vs packers: 9ers down 6 with 2:39 left. Go on a 8 play 75 yard Go ahead TD drive. D can't hold in the final 37 seconds.
Week 13 @ Seattle: 9ers down 7 with 4:03 left. Go on a 12 play 95 yard drive, Sherfield gets mugged in the end zone but no flag
Week 14 @ Cincy: Tie game with 1:19 left. Go on a 10 play 50 yard drive and Gould misses the GW 47 yard FG
Week 14 @ Cincy: Down by 3 in OT needing to score a TD. 9ers go on a 7 play 75 yard GW TD drive
Week 18 @ Rams (Have to win to get into the playoffs): Down by 7 with 1:27 left. 9ers go 5 plays 88 yard game tying TD drive
Week 18 @ Rams: Tie game in OT go on a 9 play 62 yard FG drive that winds up being a GW drive.
Playoffs @ Green Bay: Sub zero temps with snow flying: Tie game with 3:20 left. 9ers go on 9 play 44 yard GW FG drive.

Speaking of the Green Bay playoff game, we're not going put any thought into the 3 egregious drops by Aiyuk/Kittle/Jennings? Any of which if caught probably changes the flow of that game (most especially Kittle's.) As for the 2nd and 1 situation in the NFCCG, are we really going to pin losing yardage on running plays on 2nd @ 3rd down on Jimmy? Allrighty then, tough crowd.

Obviously, there are several games to look back on where Jimmy and the 9ers didn't get the job done in crunch time/obvious passing situations. My point is, the myth that the 49ers win games mostly despite Jimmy Garoppolo is unfounded in reality. The offense is routinely rated at the top of the NFL and the 49ers consistently win games and make deep playoff runs. That just does not happen if your QB is terrible or defenses don't respect your passing game.

To reign this back into a Jameis Winston debate for a minute: As for contracts, Take a look at the QB contracts signed in 2020:

Teddy Bridgewater: 3 years 63 mil
Tom Brady: 2 years 50 mil
Philip Rivers: 1 year 25 mil
Case Keenum: 3 years 18 mil
Marcus Mariota: 2 years 17.6 mil
Chase Daniel: 3 years 13 mil
Jeff Driskel: 2 years 5 mil
Andy Dalton: 1 year 3 mil
Colt McCoy: 1 year 2.2 mil
Cam Newton: 1 year 1.7 mil
Joe Flacco: 1 year 1.5 mil
Geno Smith: 1 year 1.2 mil
Mike Glennon: 1 year 1.2 mil
Blaine Gabbert: 1 year 1.2 mil
Jameis Winston: 1 year 1.1 mil
Matt Moore: 1 year 1 mil
Brian Hoyer: 1 year 1 mil
Brett Hundley: 1 year 1 mil

Looking at that list there is absolutely no way that someone will be able to convince me that contracts are irrelevant. I don't expect to be able to change your mind either, I'm just giving you some data that leads me to my opinion.

While Winston was coming off a 35 Turnover season, it in a lot of ways was also his best season. I just don't see the NFL as valuing Jameis Winston all that highly. Like I said earlier, we will see what kind of market he finds this offseason.

In any event, I'm personally pretty much over talking about Jameis Winston. I'll happily read/consider any rebuttal thoughts you might have, but I'm not really interested in continuing the Winston debate.

Jimmy is absolutely a big part of our offensive success during the 2019 and 2021 seasons. Of course he is, he's the QB. But he plays in a QB-friendly system that is predicated on getting the ball to playmakers in space and letting them make the plays. And he's done so with Kittle and Samuel, who are two of the most unique YAC players in NFL history, playing almost full seasons both years.

You contrast 2019 and 2021 with Mullens' performance in 2020, which is fair...except when it's not.

To begin, Mullens only attempted just over half of the passes that season. Jimmy started six games that year and had the lowest completion percentage (67.1), YPA (7.8), and TD to INT ratio (7 to 5) of that three-year span, and CJ Beathard attempted 104 passes. Then you have to consider the supporting cast.

In 2020, Kittle only played in one of Mullens' starts. He put up 15 receptions on 15 targets for 183 yards and a TD in that one game, which was by far his best game of that season and probably the third-best of his career. Keep in mind that in eight starts with Mullens at QB in 2018, Kittle averaged 99 yards a game and had three TDs (he's never had more than six in a season, and had two in his other eight games that season) on the way to setting the NFL record for TE receiving yards, including games in which he had 210, 149 and 108 receiving yards from Mullens.

Deebo effectively played in only three of Mullens' eight starts in 2020 (he was injured and left the game on the first drive of a fourth). One was Deebo's first game back from an injury which cost him the offseason, and he was pretty quiet (3 for 35). The other two were Deebo's best games in terms of receiving yardage that year (11 of 13 for 133 and 6 of 9 for 73).

For that matter, Mostert only played in four of Mullens' starts, three of them as he was easing back in from injury late in the year. Mullens was playing with rookie Aiyuk and Bourne, and making them look pretty darn good in the process. Aiyuk was looking like the next big thing at WR late that year. And with the exception of the NE game, all of Aiyuk's big games to end that season came with Mullens at QB (he averaged 90.6 YPG and four of his five TDs in the five starts he played with Mullens). Against Seattle, Mullens entered in the 4th quarter, after which Aiyuk racked up 80 yards and a TD in that quarter alone.

So sure, missing arguably his three biggest playmakers on offense for big chunks of the season, Mullens was the primary QB contributor to what was "only" the 11th-most explosive offense in the league. I'm not arguing that Mullens is a better QB than Jimmy. On the contrary, it sure looks to me like this is an offense that is able to generate big plays even with a mediocre talent at QB surrounded by lackluster talent.

No argument that Jimmy has contributed to some big comebacks and crucial drives over his career, but in the two huge games where we needed him to do really anything, he came up completely empty. Like, couldn't even get a first down in multiple tries empty. And sure, there were some big drops by his receivers against GB. But there were also a couple big drops by GB defenders that would have rendered the comeback moot.

In terms of the contracts, again, what bearing do those contracts have on Winston's ability as an NFL QB today? Are you suggesting that, because he was paid less two offseasons ago, you would take guys like Glennon, Gabbert, and Driscoll over him today? If so, okay.... Gotta question your judgment. And if not, then how does that information support your argument in any way?

[Jikkle]

We can debate all the stats we want but Jimmy G is just an above average QB and if you want to argue average I wouldn't fight you on that given his propensity to throw INTs.

Moving on from Jimmy G is more about him hitting his ceiling as a player and wanting even more production and also him being injured all of the time as I think he had one completely healthy season with the team which is pretty bad for a QB that doesn't run really.

It's another Alex Smith vs Mahomes situation as Alex Smith would've gotten the Chiefs to the playoffs and maybe won a game or two but he wasn't to do what Mahomes did and get you to back to back SB and nearly a 3rd 3 years in a row.

Not saying Lance will be Mahomes but he's definitely more talented than Jimmy and has the potential to be in that conversation with guys like Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, and etc.

[Jikkle]

Lynch and Shanahan pose a conundrum of sorts.

I have vehemently disagreed with a number of their moves in the draft, particularly the earlier rounds (Solomon Thomas, McGlinchey, Pettis, Hurd, Kinlaw, Banks, Sermon, etc., etc.; this is not hindsight, it's what I said at the time, and I'll eat crow on the Foster pick, which I loved). I have also strongly disagreed with a lot of their FA moves (Alexander and Malcolm Smith most prominently; again I was pretty on board with Ford, and that's been a debacle). But at the end of the day, even with those extremely suspect moves, they have built a pretty darn talented roster, particularly if they hit on Lance. It may not be top-5 in the league, but it's definitely top-10, particularly if we don't include QB in the consideration.

I also think that Kyle is not a great head coach, particularly in terms of game management-type stuff. But this team - despite the talent - clearly overperformed toward the end of this year. They were playing way above their talent level in the playoffs, particularly on defense. And ultimately, that speaks to coaching. Now, the fact that the defense rose to the occasion while the offense floundered casts some doubt on Kyle's coaching, but he's the head coach, so if the team is outperforming expectations, he deserves a lot of the credit.

Shanahan and Lynch have done a great job of bringing in a very talented group of position coaches and coordinators. The team is full of high character, passionate, driven players. It's a team that - despite the ugliness at the end of this last game - really has no quit in them. And the FO deserves a lot of the credit for that.

So despite the really frustrating things we've seen from Shanahan in particular at times, we stick with them and hope they can get it right. I just wish he wasn't so damn stubborn and convinced of his own greatness (apparently). He could really stand to delegate some responsibilities, in the personnel area as well as in terms of playcalling and clock management.

I loved Kyle's hiring but grew frustrated with his stubbornness.But you said it right ,Lynch and him assembled a very strong group of coaches and an especially strong move was finding Demeco Ryans for Saleh's place,the defense carried the Niners for the 2nd half on . With the West growing stronger every season Kyle's work needs to be better .

I don't see the west growing stronger. I see it potentially growing weaker over the next few seasons. The Seahawks have the oldest coach in the NFL and a QB close to his mid 30s that relies on speed and elusiveness. The Rams are all in now but face a day of reckoning down the road. Not sure about where Arizona is headed

I think the Seahawks have a chance to bounce back a bit from their down season and they'll have some cap space to play with so they could improve as well. Rams are facing some cap issues and not having draft picks is starting to chip away at their non superstar talent. Cardinals have minor cap issues but they just seem like they'll be constantly inconsistent under Kingbury.

9ers have cap issues as well but once they trade Jimmy G they'll get some breathing room. Dee Ford retiring would help since he's almost certain to not play again as well. It'll boil down to Lance though and if he's a hit the 9ers could be the dominant NFC team the next few years as some of the stronger teams in the NFC are in a mess with the cap or in the Bucs case lost their QB.

[CrimsonCrew]

More likely is that 49ers have players who are monsters in YAC.

Kittles gets through contact and Deebo is elusive, though he fights for extra yards through contact as well.

But that's also the QB getting the ball to them in space, so they have chance to build up momentum, if not catching it at almost full speed.

QB can't make them reach backwards for the ball or jump for it. Those reduce chances for YAC.

Sure, and Jimmy does hit receivers in stride nicely at times. But he also throws behind or above his guys PLENTY. George Kittle's beaten up lower body would like to have a word with anyone who says otherwise.

Look, Garoppolo is a solid starting NFL QB who helped this team go almost all the way on two occasions. But he's also a physically limited player who never really developed his game, makes the same mistakes over and over again, and has benefitted tremendously from the system he played in.

[thesack12]

Jimmy is absolutely a big part of our offensive success during the 2019 and 2021 seasons. Of course he is, he's the QB. But he plays in a QB-friendly system that is predicated on getting the ball to playmakers in space and letting them make the plays. And he's done so with Kittle and Samuel, who are two of the most unique YAC players in NFL history, playing almost full seasons both years.

You contrast 2019 and 2021 with Mullens' performance in 2020, which is fair...except when it's not.

To begin, Mullens only attempted just over half of the passes that season. Jimmy started six games that year and had the lowest completion percentage (67.1), YPA (7.8), and TD to INT ratio (7 to 5) of that three-year span, and CJ Beathard attempted 104 passes. Then you have to consider the supporting cast.

In 2020, Kittle only played in one of Mullens' starts. He put up 15 receptions on 15 targets for 183 yards and a TD in that one game, which was by far his best game of that season and probably the third-best of his career. Keep in mind that in eight starts with Mullens at QB in 2018, Kittle averaged 99 yards a game and had three TDs (he's never had more than six in a season, and had two in his other eight games that season) on the way to setting the NFL record for TE receiving yards, including games in which he had 210, 149 and 108 receiving yards from Mullens.

Deebo effectively played in only three of Mullens' eight starts in 2020 (he was injured and left the game on the first drive of a fourth). One was Deebo's first game back from an injury which cost him the offseason, and he was pretty quiet (3 for 35). The other two were Deebo's best games in terms of receiving yardage that year (11 of 13 for 133 and 6 of 9 for 73).

For that matter, Mostert only played in four of Mullens' starts, three of them as he was easing back in from injury late in the year. Mullens was playing with rookie Aiyuk and Bourne, and making them look pretty darn good in the process. Aiyuk was looking like the next big thing at WR late that year. And with the exception of the NE game, all of Aiyuk's big games to end that season came with Mullens at QB (he averaged 90.6 YPG and four of his five TDs in the five starts he played with Mullens). Against Seattle, Mullens entered in the 4th quarter, after which Aiyuk racked up 80 yards and a TD in that quarter alone.

So sure, missing arguably his three biggest playmakers on offense for big chunks of the season, Mullens was the primary QB contributor to what was "only" the 11th-most explosive offense in the league. I'm not arguing that Mullens is a better QB than Jimmy. On the contrary, it sure looks to me like this is an offense that is able to generate big plays even with a mediocre talent at QB surrounded by lackluster talent.

No argument that Jimmy has contributed to some big comebacks and crucial drives over his career, but in the two huge games where we needed him to do really anything, he came up completely empty. Like, couldn't even get a first down in multiple tries empty. And sure, there were some big drops by his receivers against GB. But there were also a couple big drops by GB defenders that would have rendered the comeback moot.

In terms of the contracts, again, what bearing do those contracts have on Winston's ability as an NFL QB today? Are you suggesting that, because he was paid less two offseasons ago, you would take guys like Glennon, Gabbert, and Driscoll over him today? If so, okay.... Gotta question your judgment. And if not, then how does that information support your argument in any way?

I haven't done a 2020 health refresher search but I do know that on top of being hobbled himself with the ankle Jimmy didn't exactly have a full deck last season either. Off the top of my head I remember Deebo missing like 1/2 the season overall including being out the first few games leading to having to start Bourne/Taylor against Arizona in week 1. I remember Mostert being constantly in and out all season. It also seems like Kittle had multiple stints on IR. As for specifics on what games/who was working their way back into form and when /etc I'll defer to you as you clearly have a better memory than me or looked into it.

No argument that Jimmy has contributed to some big comebacks and crucial drives over his career, but in the two huge games where we needed him to do really anything, he came up completely empty. Like, couldn't even get a first down in multiple tries empty. And sure, there were some big drops by his receivers against GB. But there were also a couple big drops by GB defenders that would have rendered the comeback moot.

I wanted to touch on these thoughts directly. First off again, I will say that Jimmy absolutely deserves criticism for crunch time performance in the 2 games you are talking about. Its not even debatable. However, one thing I don't understand is how the defense gets basically a free pass for giving up a 10 point lead with 8.5 minutes left in the Super Bowl. That's not acceptable. Defense allowed a 83 yard TD drive in only 2.5 minutes. Then a 65 yard TD drive again in only 2.5 minutes, which got KC the lead. Defense was supposed to be elite and the backbone of that team. They had the luxury to spot KC the 1 TD down the stretch, they just had to make them burn some clock to get it and not allow any big quick strike like plays. Yet they failed in both regards.

9ers up 20-10 with 8:33 remaining:
3rd & 15 Gave up a 44 yard bomb to Hill
3rd &10 from the 21, Moore commits a PI in the end zone. Next play KC easily scores from the 1
9ers up 20-17 with 5:10 remaining:
2nd & & gave up a 38 yard bomb to Watkins which goes down to the 10
3rd & Goal from the 5, defense can't force the FG attempt that would have only tied the game, instead Chiefs go up 24-20

Defense choked, period. It just doesn't get talked about.

Pertaining to the underlined part, this type of sentiment always baffles me. People want to mitigate everybody else's mistakes, but trumpet Jimmy's mistakes. On one hand I get it, everything funnels back to the QB, which is fine if we are being 100% fair to that. Yet Jimmy gets none of the other side of it. Jimmy takes the brunt of all criticism when things go bad yet he doesn't get any credit when things go well.

Specifically with the "almost" plays. I swear these types of standpoints are only a thing within Jimmy detractor circles. Every QB has throws that almost get picked in most every game but the ball falls harmlessly to the ground. Yet I don't see anybody else's fan bases holding onto those things so tightly, even when the team ends up winning the damn game anyways. Look at Tartt's terrible butterfingering choke job of missed INT gaffe. That was a godawful decision/throw by Stafford, and if Tartt makes that catch, 9ers could easily be practicing for the Super Bowl right now. Yet, there is basically no talk about Stafford Almost choking that game away. Rams won that game, therefore their fans and most everybody else have all but forgotten about it and moved on.

Despite saying I'm over the Winston talk, I will touch on it briefly based on your rebuttal. It has absolutely nothing to do with what I think Winston's value was nor who I would rather have. That free agency period showed what the NFL thought Winston's value was as the time. He wasn't coming off injury at the time, and was in fact actually coming off leading the NFL in yards. Yet he was met with a very cold market. Apparently nobody wanted to bring him as their starter, nor to compete with their underwhelming current starter. Even for unquestioned backup QB $, he was paid immensely less a lot of those other guys. What his value is today, as I mentioned a few times already we will find that out shortly. Of course now he's coming off the injury, so that will obviously play a factor into his market...

As for your overall points, I hear you believe me I do. Jimmy absolutely has enjoyed system related benefits as well as playmakers gaing YAC. However, the QB is and always will be the vital cog in the machine. Again, I will mention that I'm not trying to say that Jimmy is a great QB (remember I rated him 12th). My biggest point of contention surrounding the Garoppolo criticism is the hordes of people who claim that he's trash. There is quite the difference between not being as good as you would like and being trash. Some people are either incapable or unwilling to make that distinction.

[thesack12]

We can debate all the stats we want but Jimmy G is just an above average QB and if you want to argue average I wouldn't fight you on that given his propensity to throw INTs.

Moving on from Jimmy G is more about him hitting his ceiling as a player and wanting even more production and also him being injured all of the time as I think he had one completely healthy season with the team which is pretty bad for a QB that doesn't run really.

It's another Alex Smith vs Mahomes situation as Alex Smith would've gotten the Chiefs to the playoffs and maybe won a game or two but he wasn't to do what Mahomes did and get you to back to back SB and nearly a 3rd 3 years in a row.

Not saying Lance will be Mahomes but he's definitely more talented than Jimmy and has the potential to be in that conversation with guys like Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, and etc.

+1 Good post