Training Camp Thread

[Pattersonca65]

This is interesting. Not sure what to say yet.

https://www.ninersnation.com/2023/8/31/23850364/john-lynch-adam-peters-top-evaluators-49ers

There was a time when Baalke couldn’t miss and would lead these kinds of surveys pretty routinely. Then suddenly he completely lost the knack and never got it back. Sometimes it’s guys behind the scenes they’re leaning on, which IS a great skill as a GM, but obviously leaves you vulnerable to change. Sometimes it’s luck. I think with Baalke the better the team got the more he stopped listening to other voices, but that’s just my impression. Anyways, FWIW I don’t think Lynch is anywhere near the talent evaluator Baalke was, but OTOH I don’t see him as a guy whose ego will take over.

Baalke's success was very short lived. Within a couple of years his star was already fading after the 2012 draft. Lynch/Shanahan have been with the 49ers since 2017. Baalke was already considered a disaster after that number of years.

[Samurai]

This is interesting. Not sure what to say yet.

https://www.ninersnation.com/2023/8/31/23850364/john-lynch-adam-peters-top-evaluators-49ers

It means "I'd hate to see the bottom five".

[Pattersonca65]

This is interesting. Not sure what to say yet.

https://www.ninersnation.com/2023/8/31/23850364/john-lynch-adam-peters-top-evaluators-49ers

First and foremost, it must be said that most people - even die hard football fans - only follow one team closely, so they have little context for what actually constitutes sustained success. They look at all these draft picks and consider how many of them have failed, and conclude that their team sucks at drafting. The reality is that even first-round picks only hit about 50% of the time. This past year, only 12 of 32 first-round picks from 2021 had their fifth-year options picked up. Jordan Love was extended for less. The odds of players in the later rounds panning out get increasingly smaller, of course, with almost no late-round players making any sort of an impact in the league.

The Niners have been a pretty weird team. They have struggled with their early picks, seemingly especially in the first round. But they are incredible in the later rounds. George Kittle (5th), Trent Taylor (5), DJ Jones (6), Fred Warner (3), DJ Reed (5), Richie James (7), Dre Greenlaw (5), Colton McKivitz (5), Jauan Jennings (7), Deommodore Lenoir (5), Talanoa Hufanga (5), Elijah Mitchell (6), Brock Purdy (7). That is a pretty astounding number of hits in the later rounds, even if not all of those guys made a big impact for the Niners. Three all-pro players, another pro bowler, and several starters or key role players for an elite team. That's some kind of feat.

I would argue that the Niners are as good as - and probably better than - any other team in the league at identifying fits for their scheme and bringing these guys in to fill a specific role they can excel at. That's where this FO is special. Now, it's kind of been my view, given the perverse dichotomy between their early picks and their late picks, that Lynch and Shanahan are making the calls through the early rounds, but the further the draft goes, the less familiar they are with the players and the more they lean on Peters, the area scouts, and possibly position coaches. And I view that as a less than spectacular sign that the two chief decision-makers seem to struggle. But so it goes.

I will say that what has frustrated me is that a lot of people on this board have called out their mistakes at the time and landed on better options. I hated the Kinlaw pick and was screaming at them to take Wirfs instead of trading back (of course, then we got Big Trent, so I guess it kind of worked out; Kinlaw still clearly the wrong choice). But so it goes. Overall, it's hard to argue with the product they have put on the field over the last several years.

First round misses happen all the time but it does seem some of those first round picks were questionable. I get players sometimes look good and just cant make it to the NFL. There were question marks about Solomon Thomas being a tweener. Th Rubuen Foster one was another one I didn't care for. Not only were the character issues but there was also the issue of his injured shoulder that scared teams off. The 49ers ignored those and it turned out both issues ended up derailing Foster.

[Harry Palmer]

This is interesting. Not sure what to say yet.

https://www.ninersnation.com/2023/8/31/23850364/john-lynch-adam-peters-top-evaluators-49ers

There was a time when Baalke couldn’t miss and would lead these kinds of surveys pretty routinely. Then suddenly he completely lost the knack and never got it back. Sometimes it’s guys behind the scenes they’re leaning on, which IS a great skill as a GM, but obviously leaves you vulnerable to change. Sometimes it’s luck. I think with Baalke the better the team got the more he stopped listening to other voices, but that’s just my impression. Anyways, FWIW I don’t think Lynch is anywhere near the talent evaluator Baalke was, but OTOH I don’t see him as a guy whose ego will take over.

Baalke's success was very short lived. Within a couple of years his star was already fading after the 2012 draft. Lynch/Shanahan have been with the 49ers since 2017. Baalke was already considered a disaster after that number of years.

That’s true so far as actual GM but he was kindof the Peters/draft specialist of that administration for a few years before he became GM and those were some great yields too.

[Harry Palmer]

Rapaport has added some detail on the Bosa negotiation. Apparently the Niners are already offering him more than Watt’s deal, and the holdup is how they evaluate Donald’s. Niners are supposedly right around, maybe slightly over Donald’s per over 5 years, but Bosa’s camp is pointing to a 5 million bonus for ‘not retiring’ that Donald got spread over 3 years. So that’s apparently where the 2 million/year gap is coming from, and according to Rap neither side is making any sings of budging.

Not assessing blame, but I do seem to recall as the season ended it was conventional wisdom that Bosa would become the highest paid defender ever. Rapaport is emphasizing that Bosa’s camp is being inflexible, but if they are trying to pay him less than Donald got I’m not sure who has more blame. But the fact that Rapaport is heavily emphasizing one side is imo yet another bad sign that faith has been broken about this whole agreement not to play this out in the media. I guess maybe if you’re looking for a glass half full side, the fact that the Bosa’s are all about the Benjamins is maybe an indication that breaking faith will not bother him as much as it would with a lot of other guys.

[thesack12]

Rapaport has added some detail on the Bosa negotiation. Apparently the Niners are already offering him more than Watt’s deal, and the holdup is how they evaluate Donald’s. Niners are supposedly right around, maybe slightly over Donald’s per over 5 years, but Bosa’s camp is pointing to a 5 million bonus for ‘not retiring’ that Donald got spread over 3 years. So that’s apparently where the 2 million/year gap is coming from, and according to Rap neither side is making any sings of budging.

Not assessing blame, but I do seem to recall as the season ended it was conventional wisdom that Bosa would become the highest paid defender ever. Rapaport is emphasizing that Bosa’s camp is being inflexible, but if they are trying to pay him less than Donald got I’m not sure who has more blame. But the fact that Rapaport is heavily emphasizing one side is imo yet another bad sign that faith has been broken about this whole agreement not to play this out in the media. I guess maybe if you’re looking for a glass half full side, the fact that the Bosa’s are all about the Benjamins is maybe an indication that breaking faith will not bother him as much as it would with a lot of other guys.

If they have an offer north of Donald $ on the table, then Bosa and his camp need to get over themselves and put ink to paper already.

Nick is undoubtedly an elite player, easily a top 3 defensive player in the league. But if he won't sign a contract that would make him the highest paid non QB in history, then he's honestly being kind of arrogant. He only has 2 years on his resume of providing top shelf impact. That's not to say, he won't sustain his high end production and perhaps even get better. But come on man, that contract literally puts you at the top of the mountain. At some point you would hope he considers the team's ability to maintain the talent around him, after giving him that contract.

This whole situation just furthers solidifies that contract structuring and negotiation strategies are easily the worst thing about the NFL in my opinion. All this hold out, hold in, restructuring, I want to get traded, delete the team from my social media profiles, etc etc is just incredibly annoying. The NFL is the only major north american professional sports league you see this in. Of course that is because the NFL is the only league that doesn't do guaranteed contracts, and that is the very reason you see all this crap. I know its not likely to change anytime soon, But I wish they could find a better system. I mean Bosa here for instance is still currently on his rookie contract. So teams aren't even guaranteed to have a guy for the duration of their rookie contracts. Which is asinine to me. Also as far as restructurings go, you will never see it go the other way and have a guy restructure his contract to a lower amount if he underperforms on his current contract. But if a guy outplays his contract, hold outs are a coming.

Anyways, if the reports of the offer on the table are accurate then Nick needs to get his ass in the building. If his camp is griping about an alleged "not retiring bonus" written into Donald's deal that they want accounted for when making Bosa the highest paid guy ever, write that significantly small amount of money into an incentive bonus of something like 20 sacks, another DPOY award, Super Bowl win, etc. Make that money available to him, but make him hungry to earn it if he wants it so bad.

[thesack12]

Writing was kind of on the wall with Brandon Allen, but I think there's a strong argument to only keep two QBs to start the season and then add a third for the playoffs.

I thought that under the new rules that teams can dress 3 QB's and the third one becomes an emergency player - doesn't count against the game day roster limit but can't enter the game unless the first 2 QB's get hurt. Does that rule only apply during the playoffs?

No, it always applies. But the odds of losing two QBs in one game are so slim that it's probably not worth the roster spot until your down to elimination games.

I think the decision to keep Allen was completely fine.

Due to the new rule, teams league wide will be keeping more QB's. And as we well know there isn't a lot of QB talent to go around. Had the 9ers waived Allen, and looked to bring in a QB3 for the stretch run of the season what kind of guy would you realistically expect to get at that point? Its extremely likely, it wouldn't anybody as good as Allen. You'd be looking at a Kurt Benkert type of guy.

Allen is far from amazing, but he's pretty rock solid for a QB3. He's been a 2 previously, and there isn't any reason to think he couldn't be a backup for some other teams now.

In addition, every game in the NFL is vitally important. Without a 3rd QB available, at any time 9ers would have been 2 plays away from having to go wildcat to finish a game. Having 2 QB's knocked out of a game in say Week 3, which forces Juice or CMC to finish a game at QB and results in a loss. Could very well be the difference of determining home field advantage in the playoffs, or even making or not making the playoffs.

So for me having a solid option available for a potential emergency QB situation for every game this season, is much more valuable than keeping say another low end developmental interior O-lineman on the roster. And as 49er fans, we are all to aware of how devastating QB injuries can be which can also come in bunches.

[Harry Palmer]

If they have an offer north of Donald $ on the table, then Bosa and his camp need to get over themselves and put ink to paper already. .

To be clear, it’s not actually north of Donald if you include his 5 mill over 3 years ‘not retiring bonus’ which is basically an accounting trick. So the Boasas are not unreasonable to include it in his salary as it is in all but the most semantic definition. As to whether he deserves to be higher than Donald I’m not sure, but I do remember that (highest paid defender) being treated like a given over most of the offseason.

[thesack12]

If they have an offer north of Donald $ on the table, then Bosa and his camp need to get over themselves and put ink to paper already. .

To be clear, it’s not actually north of Donald if you include his 5 mill over 3 years ‘not retiring bonus’ which is basically an accounting trick. So the Boasas are not unreasonable to include it in his salary as it is in all but the most semantic definition. As to whether he deserves to be higher than Donald I’m not sure, but I do remember that (highest paid defender) being treated like a given over most of the offseason.

Yeah, I don't know what the language entails or how the negotiations are going. Regardless, if this is actually the hold up I mean what the heck are we doing here? $1.67 mil a season on a contract that will be north of $30 mil annually is small potatoes. If its really that small of a gap in question, I gotta believe the team would just give him that small bump just to appeal to the greater good of the team. Its obviously in the team's best interest to get him in the building sooner rather than later, instead of quibbling over relative nickels.

At this point, I'm tending to believe that Bosa's requests are either just too high. Or he's unhappy with how much of it the team is trying to incorporate into incentives. Or he's not liking them wanting to backload it. Or something along those lines. With this caliber of contact and only being 5 days away from kickoff, I just find it quite asinine that $1.67 mil/annually being what is holding this up.

[Harry Palmer]

If they have an offer north of Donald $ on the table, then Bosa and his camp need to get over themselves and put ink to paper already. .

To be clear, it’s not actually north of Donald if you include his 5 mill over 3 years ‘not retiring bonus’ which is basically an accounting trick. So the Boasas are not unreasonable to include it in his salary as it is in all but the most semantic definition. As to whether he deserves to be higher than Donald I’m not sure, but I do remember that (highest paid defender) being treated like a given over most of the offseason.

Yeah, I don't know what the language entails or how the negotiations are going. Regardless, if this is actually the hold up I mean what the heck are we doing here? $1.67 mil a season on a contract that will be north of $30 mil annually is small potatoes. If its really that small of a gap in question, I gotta believe the team would just give him that small bump just to appeal to the greater good of the team. Its obviously in the team's best interest to get him in the building sooner rather than later, instead of quibbling over relative nickels.

At this point, I'm tending to believe that Bosa's requests are either just too high. Or he's unhappy with how much of it the team is trying to incorporate into incentives. Or he's not liking them wanting to backload it. Or something along those lines. With this caliber of contact and only being 5 days away from kickoff, I just find it quite asinine that $1.67 mil/annually being what is holding this up.

Amongst the bad options available, Bosa’s demands being way too high is probably the one we’re hoping for as fans. As you say, if the team is digging in on what by any objective standard is a disingenuous technicality with the team’s best player, that has much worse implications. The red flag I’ve always kind of worried about coming is that Paraag has a kind rep as the of organizational equivalent of the Bosas in terms of drawing a line and sticking to it. Which is generally good for an organization, but this might be the perfect storm for it going wrong. And if we are deciding he is not worth it and we know Bosa’s philosophy re: contract negotiations, the lack of urgency all offseason and/or not trying to get a deal done or trade him before the draft is another less than great (to put it mildly) move this offseason.

[CrimsonCrew]

I thought that under the new rules that teams can dress 3 QB's and the third one becomes an emergency player - doesn't count against the game day roster limit but can't enter the game unless the first 2 QB's get hurt. Does that rule only apply during the playoffs?

No, it always applies. But the odds of losing two QBs in one game are so slim that it's probably not worth the roster spot until your down to elimination games.

I think the decision to keep Allen was completely fine.

Due to the new rule, teams league wide will be keeping more QB's. And as we well know there isn't a lot of QB talent to go around. Had the 9ers waived Allen, and looked to bring in a QB3 for the stretch run of the season what kind of guy would you realistically expect to get at that point? Its extremely likely, it wouldn't anybody as good as Allen. You'd be looking at a Kurt Benkert type of guy.

Allen is far from amazing, but he's pretty rock solid for a QB3. He's been a 2 previously, and there isn't any reason to think he couldn't be a backup for some other teams now.

In addition, every game in the NFL is vitally important. Without a 3rd QB available, at any time 9ers would have been 2 plays away from having to go wildcat to finish a game. Having 2 QB's knocked out of a game in say Week 3, which forces Juice or CMC to finish a game at QB and results in a loss. Could very well be the difference of determining home field advantage in the playoffs, or even making or not making the playoffs.

So for me having a solid option available for a potential emergency QB situation for every game this season, is much more valuable than keeping say another low end developmental interior O-lineman on the roster. And as 49er fans, we are all to aware of how devastating QB injuries can be which can also come in bunches.

Yeah, keeping Allen isn't completely inexplicable. Definitely would have kept one of the young players over, say, Ross Dwelley, though, who didn't make the initial 53 last year, as memory serves. Could have probably also cut Woerner and brought him back. And worst-case, you could have just gone with Fumagalli, who was better than both in the preseason, IMO. Not really sure why we kept four TEs on the active roster, though Kittle's injury may have had a lot to do with it.

[CrimsonCrew]

To be clear, it’s not actually north of Donald if you include his 5 mill over 3 years ‘not retiring bonus’ which is basically an accounting trick. So the Boasas are not unreasonable to include it in his salary as it is in all but the most semantic definition. As to whether he deserves to be higher than Donald I’m not sure, but I do remember that (highest paid defender) being treated like a given over most of the offseason.

Yeah, I don't know what the language entails or how the negotiations are going. Regardless, if this is actually the hold up I mean what the heck are we doing here? $1.67 mil a season on a contract that will be north of $30 mil annually is small potatoes. If its really that small of a gap in question, I gotta believe the team would just give him that small bump just to appeal to the greater good of the team. Its obviously in the team's best interest to get him in the building sooner rather than later, instead of quibbling over relative nickels.

At this point, I'm tending to believe that Bosa's requests are either just too high. Or he's unhappy with how much of it the team is trying to incorporate into incentives. Or he's not liking them wanting to backload it. Or something along those lines. With this caliber of contact and only being 5 days away from kickoff, I just find it quite asinine that $1.67 mil/annually being what is holding this up.

Amongst the bad options available, Bosa’s demands being way too high is probably the one we’re hoping for as fans. As you say, if the team is digging in on what by any objective standard is a disingenuous technicality with the team’s best player, that has much worse implications. The red flag I’ve always kind of worried about coming is that Paraag has a kind rep as the of organizational equivalent of the Bosas in terms of drawing a line and sticking to it. Which is generally good for an organization, but this might be the perfect storm for it going wrong. And if we are deciding he is not worth it and we know Bosa’s philosophy re: contract negotiations, the lack of urgency all offseason and/or not trying to get a deal done or trade him before the draft is another less than great (to put it mildly) move this offseason.

It's causing me anxiety, but it is an interesting situation. Both sides have quite a lot of leverage. The Niners are in win-now mode and have received a lot of bad press lately. If they start out losing a few winnable games, Bosa will have them by the short hairs.

That said, the Niners can pretty easily control his rights for the next three years. They have him under contract right now for $17.9 million. Next year, the projected franchise tag for DEs looks like $22.25 million, and if we paid 20% more than that the following year, it would be $26.7 million. So unless he's planning to sit out three prime years, he's in a bit of a pickle.

I always figured he'd get more than Donald, though maybe not much more. Donald has been on another level for basically his entire career. But the Donald contract apparently has some complicated stuff in there. Bottom line is that the Niners need to get a deal done soon or risk letting the season get away from them early. Again. Nots sure we can put together a 10-game win streak, or whatever it was, to end this season....

[Big J]

What are they doing? Just pay Bosa his asking price. He's the best D Lineman in the game.