Purdy-Torn UCL

[arich35]

Purdy is limited. He’s Jimmy G part 2, and his weak arm just got weaker. It’s better to take a shot on developing a guy who could someday be a Super Bowl level qb.

It would be better for us in the long-term if Lance hits his ceiling than Purdy. But Purdy is already better than Jimmy, as clearly demonstrated by how much better the offense got when he came in. He's just got a pretty unique feel for the game, especially as a rookie. Now, look, there's no guarantee that lasts. When Jimmy came to the Niners, he was playing carefree, and it's basically the best he's ever played. But for Purdy to do what he did this year in terms of vision, feel, pocket presence, accuracy, etc. as a rookie was pretty special. The physical tools will likely always be a concern, but Brady and Brees had questions about their arm strength coming out. Purdy could be one of those guys - granted it's of course a long shot.

Regardless, he went undefeated as a starter against some pretty stiff competition, led one of the most dynamic offenses in football, and met every challenge he came up against until he got injured. If he's healthy, unless Lance shows pretty remarkable growth, he's the guy.

I dunno man. It seems like every SB winning QB has a skill that they are elite at. Purdy is just average all around, and lucked into a perfect supporting cast. I've never seen a QB get more YAC's than he did during his little run.

I thought I read a stat somewhere a few weeks ago that Patrick Mahomes actually gets the most YAC in terms of passing yards.

[thesack12]

It would be better for us in the long-term if Lance hits his ceiling than Purdy. But Purdy is already better than Jimmy, as clearly demonstrated by how much better the offense got when he came in. He's just got a pretty unique feel for the game, especially as a rookie. Now, look, there's no guarantee that lasts. When Jimmy came to the Niners, he was playing carefree, and it's basically the best he's ever played. But for Purdy to do what he did this year in terms of vision, feel, pocket presence, accuracy, etc. as a rookie was pretty special. The physical tools will likely always be a concern, but Brady and Brees had questions about their arm strength coming out. Purdy could be one of those guys - granted it's of course a long shot.

Regardless, he went undefeated as a starter against some pretty stiff competition, led one of the most dynamic offenses in football, and met every challenge he came up against until he got injured. If he's healthy, unless Lance shows pretty remarkable growth, he's the guy.

I dunno man. It seems like every SB winning QB has a skill that they are elite at. Purdy is just average all around, and lucked into a perfect supporting cast. I've never seen a QB get more YAC's than he did during his little run.

I thought I read a stat somewhere a few weeks ago that Patrick Mahomes actually gets the most YAC in terms of passing yards.

That's correct.

Mahomes ranking by season:

#1 in YAC in 2022 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2021 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2020 (#5 YAC per completion) Still #1 in overall despite missing 1 game
#6 in 2019 (#3 YAC per completion) Missed 2 games that season, which explains the *relatively* low overall rank
#2 in 2018 (#2 YAC per completion)

Mahomes is obviously an elite QB, and has top shelf arm talent. Still, he benefits greatly from his receivers doing work after the catch.

Really, Mahomes has been the biggest beneficiary of YAC in the entire NFL since he became a starter in 2018.

All this goes to show that trying to undermine QB play with YAC stats in quite lazy and largely reflects on biases. At its core the QB's job is to execute plays properly and deliver the ball in a timely/accurate fashion. Timing and accurate ball placement are essential components to the YAC equation.

[CrimsonCrew]

Purdy is limited. He’s Jimmy G part 2, and his weak arm just got weaker. It’s better to take a shot on developing a guy who could someday be a Super Bowl level qb.

It would be better for us in the long-term if Lance hits his ceiling than Purdy. But Purdy is already better than Jimmy, as clearly demonstrated by how much better the offense got when he came in. He's just got a pretty unique feel for the game, especially as a rookie. Now, look, there's no guarantee that lasts. When Jimmy came to the Niners, he was playing carefree, and it's basically the best he's ever played. But for Purdy to do what he did this year in terms of vision, feel, pocket presence, accuracy, etc. as a rookie was pretty special. The physical tools will likely always be a concern, but Brady and Brees had questions about their arm strength coming out. Purdy could be one of those guys - granted it's of course a long shot.

Regardless, he went undefeated as a starter against some pretty stiff competition, led one of the most dynamic offenses in football, and met every challenge he came up against until he got injured. If he's healthy, unless Lance shows pretty remarkable growth, he's the guy.

I dunno man. It seems like every SB winning QB has a skill that they are elite at. Purdy is just average all around, and lucked into a perfect supporting cast. I've never seen a QB get more YAC's than he did during his little run.

Very legitimate questions about what Purdy can do at an elite level. But it doesn't have to be elite physical ability. Again, Brees and Brady are the hallmark examples of this. Probably Montana, though that's a different era. Their physical skills were good enough, but it's the mental piece and the feel for the game that make them special. Does Purdy have that? No idea. But he was absolutely special in those areas for a rookie, and we have to assume he continues to develop. His arm would normally get stronger as he gets older, but the injury is a concern for that. He's never going to be elite running the ball, but he showed some ability there to at least move the chains.

If Purdy can become an elite processor, there's no reason he can't be a special player. But it's a narrower window than possessing one or more special physical abilities. I'm just hoping both guys hit their peak and force us into a really tough decision.

[CrimsonCrew]

No sources I really trust so far, but early word today is Tommy John for Purdy.

I don't get all the freaking out about our QB situation. Of course this is devastating news, but again, we're going into the season with Lance as the starter, which is the situation we were in this season. I didn't see anything through his five quarters to convince me that Lance cannot be the guy. Granted I didn't see much to convince me he is, either. We just don;t know at this point. But given what we sank into drafting him, in some ways it's good that we get another opportunity to take a look at him, while Brock can take his time recovering and we can hopefully figure out what we have in each of them before the start of next season.

I definitely agree with you Crims. However, Patterson made a valid point earlier that if the coaches’ action (lack of faith through their play designs in comparison to Purdy in the lineup) was more than enough proof that he was not ready.

Prior to that you raised a very good point as well, something to the extent of allowing him to go through the growing pains if we truly want to develop him.

Yeah, certainly Shanahan wasn't calling plays like Lance is the guy. But Shanahan is also crazy conservative about that stuff. I think his view really is, "We can beat the Hawks by running the ball 50 times, so let's just do that and we won't worry about getting Lance favorable looks in the passing game."

I'm choosing to remain optimistic, though again, I was never a Lance guy until he wound up on the team. Seems like he's got a lot going for him off the field. On the field, I was underwhelmed by his play in college, and just haven't seen enough in the NFL to convince me I was wrong about him.

[CrimsonCrew]

I dunno man. It seems like every SB winning QB has a skill that they are elite at. Purdy is just average all around, and lucked into a perfect supporting cast. I've never seen a QB get more YAC's than he did during his little run.

I thought I read a stat somewhere a few weeks ago that Patrick Mahomes actually gets the most YAC in terms of passing yards.

That's correct.

Mahomes ranking by season:

#1 in YAC in 2022 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2021 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2020 (#5 YAC per completion) Still #1 in overall despite missing 1 game
#6 in 2019 (#3 YAC per completion) Missed 2 games that season, which explains the *relatively* low overall rank
#2 in 2018 (#2 YAC per completion)

Mahomes is obviously an elite QB, and has top shelf arm talent. Still, he benefits greatly from his receivers doing work after the catch.

Really, Mahomes has been the biggest beneficiary of YAC in the entire NFL since he became a starter in 2018.

All this goes to show that trying to undermine QB play with YAC stats in quite lazy and largely reflects on biases. At its core the QB's job is to execute plays properly and deliver the ball in a timely/accurate fashion. Timing and accurate ball placement are essential components to the YAC equation.

Yeah, all YAC is not the same. You throw a bubble screen to Deebo and he takes it 50 yards for a TD, obviously that's on him. But a huge part of YAC is locating the open guy and/or hitting him in stride and letting him run away from the defense. A guy who can do that consistently can absolutely be an elite QB, even if his physical skills aren't there.

Mahomes also benefitted from Tyreek Hill up to this year, but he's still at the very top of the YAC figures, so clearly it wasn't just Hill.

[Big J]

I thought I read a stat somewhere a few weeks ago that Patrick Mahomes actually gets the most YAC in terms of passing yards.

That's correct.

Mahomes ranking by season:

#1 in YAC in 2022 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2021 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2020 (#5 YAC per completion) Still #1 in overall despite missing 1 game
#6 in 2019 (#3 YAC per completion) Missed 2 games that season, which explains the *relatively* low overall rank
#2 in 2018 (#2 YAC per completion)

Mahomes is obviously an elite QB, and has top shelf arm talent. Still, he benefits greatly from his receivers doing work after the catch.

Really, Mahomes has been the biggest beneficiary of YAC in the entire NFL since he became a starter in 2018.

All this goes to show that trying to undermine QB play with YAC stats in quite lazy and largely reflects on biases. At its core the QB's job is to execute plays properly and deliver the ball in a timely/accurate fashion. Timing and accurate ball placement are essential components to the YAC equation.

Yeah, all YAC is not the same. You throw a bubble screen to Deebo and he takes it 50 yards for a TD, obviously that's on him. But a huge part of YAC is locating the open guy and/or hitting him in stride and letting him run away from the defense. A guy who can do that consistently can absolutely be an elite QB, even if his physical skills aren't there.

Mahomes also benefitted from Tyreek Hill up to this year, but he's still at the very top of the YAC figures, so clearly it wasn't just Hill.

Mahomes gets a ton of YAC because he's constantly escaping pressure and hitting receivers when there are less defenders downfield. Purdy got YAC because of CMAC, Deebo, & Kittle.

[thesack12]

That's correct.

Mahomes ranking by season:

#1 in YAC in 2022 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2021 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2020 (#5 YAC per completion) Still #1 in overall despite missing 1 game
#6 in 2019 (#3 YAC per completion) Missed 2 games that season, which explains the *relatively* low overall rank
#2 in 2018 (#2 YAC per completion)

Mahomes is obviously an elite QB, and has top shelf arm talent. Still, he benefits greatly from his receivers doing work after the catch.

Really, Mahomes has been the biggest beneficiary of YAC in the entire NFL since he became a starter in 2018.

All this goes to show that trying to undermine QB play with YAC stats in quite lazy and largely reflects on biases. At its core the QB's job is to execute plays properly and deliver the ball in a timely/accurate fashion. Timing and accurate ball placement are essential components to the YAC equation.

Yeah, all YAC is not the same. You throw a bubble screen to Deebo and he takes it 50 yards for a TD, obviously that's on him. But a huge part of YAC is locating the open guy and/or hitting him in stride and letting him run away from the defense. A guy who can do that consistently can absolutely be an elite QB, even if his physical skills aren't there.

Mahomes also benefitted from Tyreek Hill up to this year, but he's still at the very top of the YAC figures, so clearly it wasn't just Hill.

Mahomes gets a ton of YAC because he's constantly escaping pressure and hitting receivers when there are less defenders downfield. Purdy got YAC because of CMAC, Deebo, & Kittle.

Even if you choose to completely devalue QB play in that equation, the other guys you mentioned will be still be around for a few more years so what's the problem?

By the way the 9ers fielded the #1 passing attack in terms of DVOA and 4th highest yards/attempt. This is with Lance's monsoon game in week 1 lowering the aggregate. So the QB's must have been been providing something + out there.

Besides, I fail to see how a HC/OC designing the system around the strengths of his personnel being a negative. Not many teams have the tremendous luxury of having an elite QB. What are there, maybe 5 of them?

[yellowknifer]

A lot of pitchers who get this surgery have their arm strength improve. Purdy is the one. Give him the time to heal and let's hope we have something in Lance.

[yellowknifer]

That's correct.

Mahomes ranking by season:

#1 in YAC in 2022 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2021 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2020 (#5 YAC per completion) Still #1 in overall despite missing 1 game
#6 in 2019 (#3 YAC per completion) Missed 2 games that season, which explains the *relatively* low overall rank
#2 in 2018 (#2 YAC per completion)

Mahomes is obviously an elite QB, and has top shelf arm talent. Still, he benefits greatly from his receivers doing work after the catch.

Really, Mahomes has been the biggest beneficiary of YAC in the entire NFL since he became a starter in 2018.

All this goes to show that trying to undermine QB play with YAC stats in quite lazy and largely reflects on biases. At its core the QB's job is to execute plays properly and deliver the ball in a timely/accurate fashion. Timing and accurate ball placement are essential components to the YAC equation.

Yeah, all YAC is not the same. You throw a bubble screen to Deebo and he takes it 50 yards for a TD, obviously that's on him. But a huge part of YAC is locating the open guy and/or hitting him in stride and letting him run away from the defense. A guy who can do that consistently can absolutely be an elite QB, even if his physical skills aren't there.

Mahomes also benefitted from Tyreek Hill up to this year, but he's still at the very top of the YAC figures, so clearly it wasn't just Hill.

Mahomes gets a ton of YAC because he's constantly escaping pressure and hitting receivers when there are less defenders downfield. Purdy got YAC because of CMAC, Deebo, & Kittle.

This is an insane take. That throw against the Seahawks that Aiyuk dropped in the end zone was one of the best I saw by any QB all year. He made many more impressive plays as well. We just need him healthy. Hopefully his arm strength will improve after the surgery. It happens in baseball.

[Samurai]

What is the delay in any type of announcement of Purdy's status? Is he really having this much trouble getting another doctor to give him a second opinion? Maybe he/Niners need a different healthcare plan with more doctors that are in-plan! If the best case scenario is 6-months, which puts the beginning of training camp in limbo for him as is, seems that every days that goes by without any type of decision/surgery only prolongs an already agonizing rehab timeline.

[arich35]

A lot of pitchers who get this surgery have their arm strength improve. Purdy is the one. Give him the time to heal and let's hope we have something in Lance.

I think this would be a totally different type of surgery than what I pitcher would normally get. If I remember correctly from what I read, pitcher's UCLs tend to wear down over time and then snap so they basically have to reconstruct the tendon from somewhere else from the body which usually takes the 12-18 months. With Purdy's injury the tendon I assume snapped but it is still healthy so they would do a repair and reattach the tendon which would be the 6 month recovery.

[Pattersonca65]

Here is Purdy's noodle arm against the commanders.

Watch on YouTube

[Pattersonca65]

I dunno man. It seems like every SB winning QB has a skill that they are elite at. Purdy is just average all around, and lucked into a perfect supporting cast. I've never seen a QB get more YAC's than he did during his little run.

I thought I read a stat somewhere a few weeks ago that Patrick Mahomes actually gets the most YAC in terms of passing yards.

That's correct.

Mahomes ranking by season:

#1 in YAC in 2022 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2021 (#2 YAC per completion)
#1 in YAC in 2020 (#5 YAC per completion) Still #1 in overall despite missing 1 game
#6 in 2019 (#3 YAC per completion) Missed 2 games that season, which explains the *relatively* low overall rank
#2 in 2018 (#2 YAC per completion)

Mahomes is obviously an elite QB, and has top shelf arm talent. Still, he benefits greatly from his receivers doing work after the catch.

Really, Mahomes has been the biggest beneficiary of YAC in the entire NFL since he became a starter in 2018.

All this goes to show that trying to undermine QB play with YAC stats in quite lazy and largely reflects on biases. At its core the QB's job is to execute plays properly and deliver the ball in a timely/accurate fashion. Timing and accurate ball placement are essential components to the YAC equation.

This

[yellowknifer]

A lot of pitchers who get this surgery have their arm strength improve. Purdy is the one. Give him the time to heal and let's hope we have something in Lance.

I think this would be a totally different type of surgery than what I pitcher would normally get. If I remember correctly from what I read, pitcher's UCLs tend to wear down over time and then snap so they basically have to reconstruct the tendon from somewhere else from the body which usually takes the 12-18 months. With Purdy's injury the tendon I assume snapped but it is still healthy so they would do a repair and reattach the tendon which would be the 6 month recovery.

Get a horse tendon imo.

[CrimsonCrew]

Here is Purdy's noodle arm against the commanders.

Watch on YouTube

If he has room and steps into it, he has plenty of arm to throw deep. Ironically, those aren't really the passes that test a QB's arm strength. The bigger issue is really ripping it when he can't step into it. Throwing outs to the far sideline in a collapsing pocket, for instance (hopefully we aren't calling many of those). Plenty of QBs have been successful without being able to make that sort of pass, including the most successful QB of all time, but Purdy's arm is clearly on the weaker side for NFL starters. It's something he'll have to work around.

[Pattersonca65]

Here is Purdy's noodle arm against the commanders.

Watch on YouTube

If he has room and steps into it, he has plenty of arm to throw deep. Ironically, those aren't really the passes that test a QB's arm strength. The bigger issue is really ripping it when he can't step into it. Throwing outs to the far sideline in a collapsing pocket, for instance (hopefully we aren't calling many of those). Plenty of QBs have been successful without being able to make that sort of pass, including the most successful QB of all time, but Purdy's arm is clearly on the weaker side for NFL starters. It's something he'll have to work around.

He has thrown some of those also during the season. I get he doesn't have a strong arm although it is adequate to get the job done in this offense. We've had successful QBs in SF over the years who didn't have the strongest of arms.

[Pattersonca65]

Latest report is not a full reconstruction

https://www.ninersnation.com/2023/2/6/23588153/49ers-brock-purdy-tommy-john-training-camp

[arich35]

Purdy will have surgery on Feb 22, the expectation is he will be at full strength 6 months post surgery which would be at the end of pre-season.

[CrimsonCrew]

Purdy will have surgery on Feb 22, the expectation is he will be at full strength 6 months post surgery which would be at the end of pre-season.

If no setbacks. Not going to bank on that the way these things have gone for the Niners lately. But will definitely hope for that. Hopefully Lance takes advantage of the time he has, and we have a real tough decision on our hands.

[CrimsonCrew]

Reporting now is that the surgeon may shift course mid-surgery and have to do a more complex repair that would set back the timeline. Let's hope for the more straightforward one...