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2022 Offseason thread

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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#681 » by CrimsonCrew » Fri Sep 2, 2022 5:07 pm

thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:Looks like Sermon was picked up by Philly. Gonna be frustrated if he pans out there.


If that happens, I personally wouldn't fret about it.

It was clear that he was not one of the best 5 RB's on this roster, and his skillset didn't provide anything that the other RB's can't. And they lost Hasty in order to keep Sermon initially.

The writing was on the wall when Sermon couldn't step in and give the running game a boost when Mitchell was either struggling with being banged up or out entirely. Instead of being able to plug in their 3rd round rookie, they had to try to cobble together their running game for big chunks of last season.

Sermon was just going to stack up game day inactives. Keeping Sermon made this team worse, as carrying him made them get rid of a more valuable/useful player. So for me, I'm fine if he ends up having a nice career. He wasn't going to do this 9ers team any good.


Yeah, the bigger issue is taking him at all, and trading up to do so. Every team will have some misses, but missing repeatedly on third-round RBs is a kick in the crotch. I don't know why they keep doing that. And I'm not holding my breath on TDP....
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#682 » by wco81 » Fri Sep 2, 2022 5:23 pm

thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
wco81 wrote:They had Staley too and in Bosa’s rookie year Armstead and Buckner were all beasts.

Staley was Pro Bowl level and Buckner and Armstead were All Pro level.

Nice building blocks, though Staley was about to retire and they couldn’t afford to keep Buckner.


I mentioned Staley. Three players that had a role on the SB team, and one of them had been a huge disappointment when they came in. I wouldn't say that's much to build on.

Again, they've made loads of mistakes. I just think most fans zero in on their team's mistakes and overlook the many mistakes other teams have made.


I completely agree. People are all to willing to focus on the lowlights, but won't put much thought into the highlights. And as you mentioned the lowlights are magnified since people are hyperfocused on their team.

I also don't think some people consider just how difficult it is to build a perrennially contending roster in the NFL. Let alone trying to do it without an elite QB in the fold that can mask a lot of the inadequacies on the roster. Then consider that the 9ers reside in a gauntlet of a division.


49ers have made the playoffs only twice under Shanahan and Lynch. In fact they still have a losing record in their tenure here.

After about half way through last season, it looked like they weren't going to make the playoffs. This was with a relatively weak schedule, after the poor season 2 years ago.

Then they made a run and salvaged the season and beat Dallas and Green Bay, getting to the NFC Championship game. All close games, resulting in a 4-2 playoffs record but while his offensive prowess is widely respected around the league, the team can't be said to be a perennial contender under this regime.

While some say they have one of the best rosters in the league, so far they're only an occasional playoffs team.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#683 » by CrimsonCrew » Fri Sep 2, 2022 5:27 pm

thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
wco81 wrote:They had Staley too and in Bosa’s rookie year Armstead and Buckner were all beasts.

Staley was Pro Bowl level and Buckner and Armstead were All Pro level.

Nice building blocks, though Staley was about to retire and they couldn’t afford to keep Buckner.


I mentioned Staley. Three players that had a role on the SB team, and one of them had been a huge disappointment when they came in. I wouldn't say that's much to build on.

Again, they've made loads of mistakes. I just think most fans zero in on their team's mistakes and overlook the many mistakes other teams have made.


I completely agree. People are all to willing to focus on the lowlights, but won't put much thought into the highlights. And as you mentioned the lowlights are magnified since people are hyperfocused on their team.

I also don't think some people consider just how difficult it is to build a perrennially contending roster in the NFL. Let alone trying to do it without an elite QB in the fold that can mask a lot of the inadequacies on the roster. Then consider that the 9ers reside in a gauntlet of a division.


To this point, just as an illustration, I took a look at the last few years of Steelers drafts. I picked the Steelers because they are universally considered a well-run team, but they have had the following draft history (I will highlight particularly good and particularly bad picks, mostly looking at the first three rounds). It's worth noting that they're almost always picking late in the round, so that increases the odds of a miss, but shouldn't really impact the value of second-day players.

2015
Took Bud Dupree 22nd overall. Dupree was alright, but never an impact pass rusher. Arguably the best thing you can say about him is that he netted a solid comp pick.
Second-round pick CB Sequez Golson literally did nothing.
Third-round pick WR Sammie Coates had 528 yards and two TDs over a four-year career. He only made it two seasons with the Steelers.
No real late-round values, although fifth-rounder Jesse James has been okay. Overall, a very lackluster draft.

2016
Took CB Artie Burns 25th overall. He was a starter for his first couple seasons, but struggled, got replaced, and departed for Chicago last year. He's now on the Seahawks. Disappointing pick.
Took CB Sean Davis in the second round. He was better than Burns, and started most games through his first three seasons, but couldn't stick and played for three teams last year.
Took DT Justin Hargrove in the third, and he's been a solid piece, starting most of his games. He went to Philly in 2020 and made the pro bowl for them last year.
Overall, not a great draft.

2017
DE TJ Watt at 30 was a huge steal. One of the better first-round picks in a good long while.
Took WR JuJu Smith-Schuster in the second. That one's a tough eval for me. Outperformed expectations at first, but then crashed pretty hard. Jury is still out, but he's also on to a new team.
They took CB Cameron Sutton in the third. He's an interesting one. just a handful of starts through his first four years, but he started 16 games for them last year, so we've got to consider him a solid pick for a third-rounder.
Also took RB James Conner in the third. Conner was good for them and has been good for the Cards. Maybe a bit early for him, but tough to really fault this one.
TJ Watt alone makes this draft, but they sweetened the pot with Sutton and the other two.

2018
Took S Terrell Edmunds 28th overall. He's started almost all his games, and he's been okay. He was a FA this year and PFF considered him a marginal starting safety. Returned to the Steelers on a one-year deal. Bit of a reach when drafted, and a disappointment.
WR James Washington in the second. He's flashed a couple times, but never lived up to second-round potential. Off the team now.
QB Mason Rudolph in the third. Pretty clearly nothing more than a mid-tier backup, though arguable that's worth a third-round pick.
Got to consider this draft a disappointment.

2019
Took LB Devin Bush 10th overall, and he's been a bit of a disaster, oddly. I thought he was a pretty fool-proof add.
WR Diontae Johnson in the third has really panned out.
CB Layne Johnson in the third has basically just been a body.

2020 starts to get a little too recent to really judge. They took Claypool in the late second, and he's flashed, but they also drafted at least one guy who is likely to play ahead of him in 2022.

Anyway, as you can see, the draft is tough, even for the best FOs. It's full of at least as many misses as hits. But fans tend to expect every guy to pan out.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#684 » by thesack12 » Fri Sep 2, 2022 5:33 pm

wco81 wrote:
thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
I mentioned Staley. Three players that had a role on the SB team, and one of them had been a huge disappointment when they came in. I wouldn't say that's much to build on.

Again, they've made loads of mistakes. I just think most fans zero in on their team's mistakes and overlook the many mistakes other teams have made.


I completely agree. People are all to willing to focus on the lowlights, but won't put much thought into the highlights. And as you mentioned the lowlights are magnified since people are hyperfocused on their team.

I also don't think some people consider just how difficult it is to build a perrennially contending roster in the NFL. Let alone trying to do it without an elite QB in the fold that can mask a lot of the inadequacies on the roster. Then consider that the 9ers reside in a gauntlet of a division.


49ers have made the playoffs only twice under Shanahan and Lynch. In fact they still have a losing record in their tenure here.

After about half way through last season, it looked like they weren't going to make the playoffs. This was with a relatively weak schedule, after the poor season 2 years ago.

Then they made a run and salvaged the season and beat Dallas and Green Bay, getting to the NFC Championship game. All close games, resulting in a 4-2 playoffs record but while his offensive prowess is widely respected around the league, the team can't be said to be a perennial contender under this regime.

While some say they have one of the best rosters in the league, so far they're only an occasional playoffs team.


They inherited a 2-14 team, and went into their first season with the mighty Brian Hoyer as QB1. Of course it got off to a rocky start.

They also experienced a biblical wave of injuries in 2020. No team, should realistically be expected to overcome that huge rash of injuries, many of which were to Key players, and still stay in contention.

You're welcome to micro-analyze last season all you like. Which again to Crimson Crew's point you need to do the same with other teams to accurately evaluate....But at the end of the day they still made it to the NFCCG while winning 2 road playoff games in the process. Neither of which is no small feat. A 4-2 playoff record overall also doesn't suck.

In my book Making a super bowl, and another NFCCG in a 3 year span certainly qualifies as being a perennial contender. If that doesn't fall into your personal definition of a perennial contender, that's fine we'll agree to disagree.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#685 » by thesack12 » Fri Sep 2, 2022 5:35 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:
thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:Looks like Sermon was picked up by Philly. Gonna be frustrated if he pans out there.


If that happens, I personally wouldn't fret about it.

It was clear that he was not one of the best 5 RB's on this roster, and his skillset didn't provide anything that the other RB's can't. And they lost Hasty in order to keep Sermon initially.

The writing was on the wall when Sermon couldn't step in and give the running game a boost when Mitchell was either struggling with being banged up or out entirely. Instead of being able to plug in their 3rd round rookie, they had to try to cobble together their running game for big chunks of last season.

Sermon was just going to stack up game day inactives. Keeping Sermon made this team worse, as carrying him made them get rid of a more valuable/useful player. So for me, I'm fine if he ends up having a nice career. He wasn't going to do this 9ers team any good.


Yeah, the bigger issue is taking him at all, and trading up to do so. Every team will have some misses, but missing repeatedly on third-round RBs is a kick in the crotch. I don't know why they keep doing that. And I'm not holding my breath on TDP....


100% agree.

Its certainly too early to write him off, but TDP hasn't inspired any excitement yet.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#686 » by thesack12 » Fri Sep 2, 2022 5:42 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:
thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
I mentioned Staley. Three players that had a role on the SB team, and one of them had been a huge disappointment when they came in. I wouldn't say that's much to build on.

Again, they've made loads of mistakes. I just think most fans zero in on their team's mistakes and overlook the many mistakes other teams have made.


I completely agree. People are all to willing to focus on the lowlights, but won't put much thought into the highlights. And as you mentioned the lowlights are magnified since people are hyperfocused on their team.

I also don't think some people consider just how difficult it is to build a perrennially contending roster in the NFL. Let alone trying to do it without an elite QB in the fold that can mask a lot of the inadequacies on the roster. Then consider that the 9ers reside in a gauntlet of a division.


To this point, just as an illustration, I took a look at the last few years of Steelers drafts. I picked the Steelers because they are universally considered a well-run team, but they have had the following draft history (I will highlight particularly good and particularly bad picks, mostly looking at the first three rounds). It's worth noting that they're almost always picking late in the round, so that increases the odds of a miss, but shouldn't really impact the value of second-day players.

2015
Took Bud Dupree 22nd overall. Dupree was alright, but never an impact pass rusher. Arguably the best thing you can say about him is that he netted a solid comp pick.
Second-round pick CB Sequez Golson literally did nothing.
Third-round pick WR Sammie Coates had 528 yards and two TDs over a four-year career. He only made it two seasons with the Steelers.
No real late-round values, although fifth-rounder Jesse James has been okay. Overall, a very lackluster draft.

2016
Took CB Artie Burns 25th overall. He was a starter for his first couple seasons, but struggled, got replaced, and departed for Chicago last year. He's now on the Seahawks. Disappointing pick.
Took CB Sean Davis in the second round. He was better than Burns, and started most games through his first three seasons, but couldn't stick and played for three teams last year.
Took DT Justin Hargrove in the third, and he's been a solid piece, starting most of his games. He went to Philly in 2020 and made the pro bowl for them last year.
Overall, not a great draft.

2017
DE TJ Watt at 30 was a huge steal. One of the better first-round picks in a good long while.
Took WR JuJu Smith-Schuster in the second. That one's a tough eval for me. Outperformed expectations at first, but then crashed pretty hard. Jury is still out, but he's also on to a new team.
They took CB Cameron Sutton in the third. He's an interesting one. just a handful of starts through his first four years, but he started 16 games for them last year, so we've got to consider him a solid pick for a third-rounder.
Also took RB James Conner in the third. Conner was good for them and has been good for the Cards. Maybe a bit early for him, but tough to really fault this one.
TJ Watt alone makes this draft, but they sweetened the pot with Sutton and the other two.

2018
Took S Terrell Edmunds 28th overall. He's started almost all his games, and he's been okay. He was a FA this year and PFF considered him a marginal starting safety. Returned to the Steelers on a one-year deal. Bit of a reach when drafted, and a disappointment.
WR James Washington in the second. He's flashed a couple times, but never lived up to second-round potential. Off the team now.
QB Mason Rudolph in the third. Pretty clearly nothing more than a mid-tier backup, though arguable that's worth a third-round pick.
Got to consider this draft a disappointment.

2019
Took LB Devin Bush 10th overall, and he's been a bit of a disaster, oddly. I thought he was a pretty fool-proof add.
WR Diontae Johnson in the third has really panned out.
CB Layne Johnson in the third has basically just been a body.

2020 starts to get a little too recent to really judge. They took Claypool in the late second, and he's flashed, but they also drafted at least one guy who is likely to play ahead of him in 2022.

Anyway, as you can see, the draft is tough, even for the best FOs. It's full of at least as many misses as hits. But fans tend to expect every guy to pan out.


Thanks for the writeup.

This is also a breakdown of one of the better, more respected NFL teams that are widely viewed as being well run. One of these writeups for the Raiders or Giants would be extra bad.

Even another Mt Rushmore franchise like the Patriots, have had a pretty poor drafting record in the last several years.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#687 » by Jikkle » Mon Sep 5, 2022 1:07 am

As Crim said and as I've said in reference to Lance is fans are so vested in their team that they get tunnel vision and forget that all teams make mistakes from personnel, coaching, and play on the field.

Perfectly legitimate criticisms morph into expectations of unattainable perfection and constant harping on every little detail and misstep.

I bring up Lance because he does have completely legitimate criticisms you can levy against him. He has an issue with being consistently accurate and he definitely needs to improve but it's got to the point that fans will take issue if every single throw isn't a 10 out of 10 perfect throw. People were actually complaining about that Danny Grey TD throw in the Packers preseason game that Grey had to make a very slight adjustment to it when if you look league-wide most deep throws aren't these pinpoint accurate balls that the receiver doesn't have to adjust to make the catch.

With the draft yeah we go "could've had this guy" or "could've had that guy" but the fans of the 31 other teams are going we could've had Deebo, could've had Warner, could've had Kittle, or etc.

A bad roster and a badly coached team aren't making it to a Super Bowl and NFC Championship game in 2 of the last 3 years especially one without a Superstar QB. Even 2020 you could argue they were crippled by major injuries so no telling what happens that year if they stayed relatively healthy.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#688 » by wco81 » Mon Sep 5, 2022 5:35 am

We'll see, if the team doesn't win, then this window will have been squandered.

Why for instance did they decide to let Tomlinson walk with Mack also leaving and huge question marks about Banks, they're rolling the dice.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#689 » by Samurai » Mon Sep 5, 2022 6:01 pm

wco81 wrote:We'll see, if the team doesn't win, then this window will have been squandered.

Why for instance did they decide to let Tomlinson walk with Mack also leaving and huge question marks about Banks, they're rolling the dice.

How did the team "let" Tomlinson walk? He was a free agent; he could sign with anyone he wanted to. The Niners wanted him back and were hoping that his price would come in at around a $10M APY, which was about the most they could go and fit both Tomlinson and Mack, who at that time was expected to return (if you recall, Mack didn't announce his retirement until 2 months after Tomlinson's deal). The Jets were the ones who came in with a $13M APY, making Tomlinson the third highest LG in the NFL at that time. Actually the team pretty much knew that they wouldn't be able to retain him once Alex Cappa signed with the Bengals for a $10M APY before Tomlinson's deal. They rightfully knew that Tomlinson would want, and deserved, more money than Cappa.

So how did the team "let" a free agent, who was legally free to sign with anyone, walk? And it would be best to avoid revisionist history (let's pretend Mack announced his retirement before Laken's deal) or pure fantasy (let's pretend that the team doesn't have to adhere to the cap).
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#690 » by CrimsonCrew » Mon Sep 5, 2022 8:52 pm

wco81 wrote:We'll see, if the team doesn't win, then this window will have been squandered.

Why for instance did they decide to let Tomlinson walk with Mack also leaving and huge question marks about Banks, they're rolling the dice.


Tough call on Tomlinson. Effectively, they let Tomlinson and Jones walk to bring in Ward. In a vacuum, you would definitely take impact play at CB over guard and nose tackle. And going forward, you'd rather put money toward Bosa and Samuel.

The only reason I hesitate at all is because of our young QB. It's unclear how confident the FO was that Mack would retire at the time. And they couldn't have anticipated Brunskill getting hurt, though they probably should have replaced him a couple years ago.

At the end of the day, every NFL team has some weak spots. Interior OL isn't the worst place for that, as long as the guys can be average. Time will tell on that.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#691 » by Jikkle » Mon Sep 5, 2022 10:08 pm

Shanahan simply doesn't have much value for Guards and generally speaking the league doesn't either.

Letting Tomlinson walk and being replaced was the correct move and they did properly plan on it by drafting a guy the year before that happened so he could at least get one season of NFL development. Now whether Banks ends up being the correct choice is a whole other matter but teams that want to have sustained success usually don't invest much into low-value positions and focus their resources on higher-value ones.

The issue is that it'd be one thing if we were just breaking in Banks and everyone else on the line was established but we're breaking in 3 new players with barely NFL game experience if any. So that's a lot of guys that are going to have to get used to working together and going through their own personal growing pains.

Maybe it's rose-colored glasses but I'm not terribly down on the offensive line. I do expect struggles and growing pains early but I think it could stabilize into something at least average and workable.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#692 » by CrimsonCrew » Tue Sep 6, 2022 6:07 pm

Jikkle wrote:Shanahan simply doesn't have much value for Guards and generally speaking the league doesn't either.

Letting Tomlinson walk and being replaced was the correct move and they did properly plan on it by drafting a guy the year before that happened so he could at least get one season of NFL development. Now whether Banks ends up being the correct choice is a whole other matter but teams that want to have sustained success usually don't invest much into low-value positions and focus their resources on higher-value ones.

The issue is that it'd be one thing if we were just breaking in Banks and everyone else on the line was established but we're breaking in 3 new players with barely NFL game experience if any. So that's a lot of guys that are going to have to get used to working together and going through their own personal growing pains.

Maybe it's rose-colored glasses but I'm not terribly down on the offensive line. I do expect struggles and growing pains early but I think it could stabilize into something at least average and workable.


It's funny, I thought Banks was supposed to replace Brunskill. But it looks like, at least in the long term, we may have replacements at both those spots. And if these guys pan out, those three spots should actually be shored up for the next few years at a reasonable price. Banks will always be a little frustrating - unless he turns out to be really good - because he was taken quite high for an interior OL and his rookie year wasn't encouraging. But he's on the team, so you've got to hope he holds up and plays well.

There will certainly be some issues in the short term as the unit gets accustomed to one another, and as Banks and Burford figure it all out. Hopefully that period is shorter than longer. The goal for the OL, in general, should be to have solid players at every spot. If we can do that, in today's NFL, we should be okay.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#693 » by Samurai » Tue Sep 6, 2022 8:26 pm

I'd much rather have Brunskill as an insurance policy (a 'break glass in case of emergency' kind of guy) rather than counting on him to be a full-time starter. As a plug-and-play guy who can fill in at any OL position, he's great to have. If we don't have anyone better than him as a full-time starter, then I see that as a sign that our OL will be more of a negative than positive asset. If we have guys starting over Brunskill that both Foerster and Shanahan believe are upgrades over Brunskill, I view that as a positive step.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#694 » by CrimsonCrew » Tue Sep 6, 2022 11:15 pm

Totally agreed on Brunskill. Let's just hope the three guys we have are better.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#695 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed Sep 7, 2022 8:35 pm

Kittle groin injury and Lance not a team captain. Neither are great outcomes. Hopefully the injury isn't too bad.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#696 » by Jikkle » Thu Sep 8, 2022 2:03 am

CrimsonCrew wrote:Kittle groin injury and Lance not a team captain. Neither are great outcomes. Hopefully the injury isn't too bad.


Will have to see how bad the injury is but considering groins linger it's not good news.

Trey not being a captain is a non issue to me. The guys that are captains are all longtime players that are highly thought of so it's hard to argue he should be a captain over those guys just because he's the QB.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#697 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Sep 8, 2022 4:07 pm

Yeah, hard to argue with the captains. Each guy is an elite player at his position - except maybe Jimmie Ward who is very good and the longest-tenured Niner - and established with the team. Still, you'd like to see Trey stake a claim to that. But I get it, and I think lots of people are making it out to be a bigger deal than it is.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#698 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Sep 8, 2022 8:10 pm

Florio had an interesting take on this. I hate Florio on all topics Shanahan and Lance, because he was completely certain the Niners were taking Jones and thus latches onto every bad piece of Lance news, but his point here stands despite that. I guess the Niners have had seven captains the past few years, but only went with six this year. Shanahan said Lance came in 7th in the voting. Thus, lack of confidence in Lance.

I don't think that's the take, per se, but it does tend to reflect a conscious choice by Shanahan not to name Lance as a captain.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#699 » by Jikkle » Fri Sep 9, 2022 7:35 am

CrimsonCrew wrote:Florio had an interesting take on this. I hate Florio on all topics Shanahan and Lance, because he was completely certain the Niners were taking Jones and thus latches onto every bad piece of Lance news, but his point here stands despite that. I guess the Niners have had seven captains the past few years, but only went with six this year. Shanahan said Lance came in 7th in the voting. Thus, lack of confidence in Lance.

I don't think that's the take, per se, but it does tend to reflect a conscious choice by Shanahan not to name Lance as a captain.


I just can't wait for the season to start because the narrative around Lance has been one of the oddest things this offseason. One guy saying if Lance was great the players would be talking about him and another pundit shortly afterwards saying the players are talking too much about him and it sounds like they are trying to sell you something.

This whole captain thing has been way overly analyzed when it boils down to Lance has played 2 regular season games, he's 22 years old, and reading a little between the lines with Shanahan's presser on the captains it feels like the team still looks at him as a rookie due to this being his first year starting.

The sole reason Lance would've been a captain was that he is the QB. He's done nothing on the field to deserve captain status and I think that's all it boils down too.

This is Nick Bosa's first year as captain and this is his 4th year in the league. Does that mean he wasn't a good player, wasn't a good leader, or nobody believed in him the previous 3 years? Or was that he's now an established player with some years under his belt and he's become one of the voices in the locker room?

As far as the Mac Jones thing goes I say people really need to let that just die. Let's say for the sake of argument Shanahan did prefer Jones over Lance it still means Shanahan was very interested in Lance and Lance was likely a very close 2nd in Shanahan's book.

You can't tell me a guy who probably has the most power and sway in the building and who was badly burned with the RG3 situation where he was forced on him was going to let York and Lynch force a guy he didn't want on him? Unless it comes from Shanahan's mouth directly you cannot convince me that he wasn't highly interested and fully onboard with Lance even if he might've preferred Mac a little more which I still have my doubts.
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Re: 2022 Offseason thread 

Post#700 » by Jikkle » Fri Sep 9, 2022 7:45 am

Reports are Kittle has a grade 2 strain of the groin.

I'd imagine he'll be out this week for sure and likely next week as well. If we somehow lose to the Bears I can see him forcing himself back for the Seahawks but I think the most likely outcome is he's back for the Broncos game.

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