Playoff Scenarios/Situations/Standings

[Rafael122]

Just including NFC East and NFC Wild Card standings. Things will get a lot more clearer as the weeks go by. 2 weeks ago, no one thought the Redskins would be in this situation, but here they are at 5-6, a game back of the Giants, and in the thick of the playoff race. However, and this is cliche to say, but every year, there are 1 or 2 losses that really get to you and you say "what if." This year, that loss against Carolina, as well as St. Louis, and maybe Atlanta hurt. They could have 1 or 2 more wins than they have now, and sitting pretty atop the NFC East. But that's life in the NFL.

Anyway here we go:

1. NY Giants - 6-4
2. Washington Redskins - 5-6
3. Dallas Cowboys - 5-6

Giants' remaining schedule: Green Bay, @Redskins, New Orleans, @Falcons, @Ravens, Philadelphia
Redskins' remaining schedule: Giants, Ravens, @Browns, @Eagles, Cowboys
Cowboys' remaining schedule: Philadelphia, @Bengals, Steelers, Saints, @Redskins

If the Giants lose against the Packers on Sunday, the Giants/Skins game on MNF will be for first place in the NFC East.

NFC Wild Card Standings:

1. Chicago Bears - 7-3
2. Vikings/Bucs/Seahawks - 6-4
3. Saints - 5-5
4. Redskins/Cowboys 5-6

2 games behind the Bears and 1 behind the Bucs, Vikings, and Seahawks, but we own a tiebreaker over the first two teams since we beat them.

Gonna be interesting, I think 9 wins gets you the NFC East, no better than 10, but with the Saints coming back to life, the Wild Card got a bit more difficult. It's definitely going to be an interesting next month.

[LyricalRico]

^ Thanks for the breakdown, Raf!

[Rafael122]

No problem. Things definitely got interesting this week. Bucs, Saints, Seahawks, and Vikings all lost. Which means the Wild Card standings are like this:

1. Chicago Bears: 8-3
2. Seattle Seahawks: 6-5
3. Tampa Bay Bucs: 6-5
4. Minnesota Vikings: 6-5
5. Washington Redskins: 5-6
---------------------------------------
6. New Orleans Saints: 5-6

[LyricalRico]

Nice! Only being 1 game out of the 2nd Wild Card spot definitely helps since we're still 2 games behind the Giants.

Thanks for nothing, Packers...

[Rafael122]

It's why division games are so important. Lose one and you essentially fall 2 games behind.

Falcons vs. Saints on Thursday
Packers vs. Vikings
Seattle vs. Chicago
Tampa Bay vs. Denver

So we can get more help next week, but it will be moot if we can't beat the Giants.

[Rafael122]

Saints lost and that pretty much ends their playoff hopes at this point.

1. Falcons: 11-1
2. Niners: 8-2-1
3. Bears: 8-3
4. Giants: 8-4
---------------------
5. Packers: 7-4
6. Seahawks: 6-5
---------------------
7. Bucs: 6-5
8. Vikings: 6-5
9. Redskins: 5-6
10. Cowboys: 5-6

1st column are division leaders, 2nd is the wild card leaders, third are the rest of the teams still in the hunt. Need Packers, Bears and Broncos to all win this Sunday!

[Rafael122]

UPDATED after Sunday 12/2/2012:

NFC Wild Card:
Packers: 8-4
Seahawks: 7-5
-------------------
Bucs: 6-6
Vikings: 6-6
Redskins: 5-6

Skins have to win pretty much or else the playoffs are done. At that point you'd have to have the Seahawks lose out.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Raf, the Giants are 7-5.

I think the Skins' best chance is to win the division, although they are very much alive in the wild card race.

The Giants have a really tough remaining schedule.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/giantsstandings.html

Washington's schedule is not as tough:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflsch ... l#redskins

NY might lose a couple or more games. If the Skins can finish 9-7, as long as they beat the Cowboys they win the division because the Giants have more division losses.

If the Giants win 3, then the Skins STILL can win the division by running the table. If both teams end up 10-6, Washington is in as the division winner. The Giants already have losses to the Cowboys, Eagles, and now Washington. The Skins' only division loss was to NY, so even though they are down a game they are up two in the division.

[Nivek]

I'll write about this in my blog this week, but I've done a quick estimate and I think the Skins have approximately a 45% chance of reaching the post-season. If they win out, they're in. Odds of winning out from here: about 12%.

[Rafael122]

4 remaining games are winnable. Being a realist, I see 2 more wins, and they finish 8-8 which is respectable considering the defense has been awful for most of the season. It probably softens the blow with their first round pick next year, 8-8 and the pick probably is not top 10.

Updated after Week 13:

NFC East:
1. NY Giants: 7-5
2. Washington Redskins: 6-6
3. Dallas Cowboys: 6-6

NFC Wild Card:
1. Chicago Bears: 8-4
2. Seattle Seahawks: 7-5
---------------------------------------
3. Washington Redskins: 6-6
4. Dallas Cowboys: 6-6
5. Tampa Bay Bucs: 6-6
6. Minnesota Vikings: 6-6

Week 14 Key Matchups:
Ravens @ Redskins
Cowboys @ Bengals
Saints @ Giants
Bears @ Vikings
Eagles @ Bucs
Cardinals @ Seahawks

[Higga]

I think 9-7 is good enough for a playoff birth. I don't know about Wild Card or Division, but a 3-1 finish will get us in.

[Nivek]

Re-ran the odds calculator and estimate the Skins with a 40% chance of making the playoffs. Which is a damn sight better than the 1% odds they had back at 3-6. The short NFL season magnifies the value of each game.

I've got them with these odds:

- 10 wins -- 10% chance
- 9 wins -- 33%
- 8 wins -- 36%
- 7 wins -- 18%
- 6 wins -- 3%

Must get a minimum of 8 wins to reach the playoffs.

Playoff odds by wins:

- 8 wins -- 4%
- 9 wins -- 25%
- 10 wins -- 100%

Only way to be sure is to run the table. Odds aren't great that they can do it, but it's going to be fun watching to see if they can.

[Rafael122]

Updated after the Week 14 afternoon games:

NFC East
1. NY Giants: 8-5
2. Washington Redskins: 7-6
3. Dallas Cowboys: 7-6

NFC Wild Card Standings
1. Seattle Seahawks: 8-5
2. Chicago Bears: 8-5
-------------------------------
3. Washington Redskins: 7-6
4. Dallas Cowboys: 7-6
5. Minnesota Vikings: 7-6

Week 15 Key Matchups:

Vikings vs. Rams
Giants vs. Falcons
Packers vs. Bears
Seahawks vs. Bills
Steelers vs. Cowboys

[hands11]

Updated after the Week 14 afternoon games:

NFC East
1. NY Giants: 8-5
2. Washington Redskins: 7-6
3. Dallas Cowboys: 7-6

NFC Wild Card Standings
1. Seattle Seahawks: 8-5
2. Chicago Bears: 8-5
-------------------------------
3. Washington Redskins: 7-6
4. Dallas Cowboys: 7-6
5. Minnesota Vikings: 7-6

Week 15 Key Matchups:

Vikings vs. Rams
Giants vs. Falcons
Packers vs. Bears
Seahawks vs. Bills
Steelers vs. Cowboys

Looking good if the Skins can win next week.

Easy to see a clear path to the playoffs and RG3s MRI came back with no ACL tear.

Giant hopefully lose in ATL. Giants haven't be that good on the road and have ATL and Balt back to back.

Pits can beat the Cowboys with Ben back for his 2nd game. That gets them off our backs.

Packers have been suspect against better team on the road but they could do it. Thats the game to watch.

Just need the Rams to take out the Vikings to get them off our heals but we beat Minny already if we tie.

Seattle should take out the Bills so it looks like they are a lock for one of the slots.

Looks like us against Chicago and the Giants.



Man. To bad we lost that last second game to the Giants. We could be first in the division right now.

Skins made up more ground with the win over Balt. Tampa lost and Bears lost which both help. That puts Chicago in striking distance and Bucks the Buck out of the picture for now.

Its touch to make the playoffs in the NFL. Every game is so important.

Just keep winning baby.

[Rafael122]

You start looking back at what if. IF they had beaten the Bengals, IF they had beaten the Falcons. 2 winnable games slipped through their hands because of shoddy defense.

Then of course you look at the debacle in the Packers-Seahawks game. By all accounts, that was not a touchdown. Green Bay should have won, and at this point, Seattle wouldn't be in second place, they'd be on the outside looking in, with the Redskins having control of that second wild card.

[LyricalRico]

You start looking back at what if. IF they had beaten the Bengals, IF they had beaten the Falcons. 2 winnable games slipped through their hands because of shoddy defense.

And don't forget the Josh Morgan penalty that took them out of FG range at the end of the Rams game.

[Rafael122]

You start looking back at what if. IF they had beaten the Bengals, IF they had beaten the Falcons. 2 winnable games slipped through their hands because of shoddy defense.

And don't forget the Josh Morgan penalty that took them out of FG range at the end of the Rams game.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I don't think Cundiff would have made it, looking back, lol.

[LyricalRico]

Ha, you're probably right.

But either way, it's one that they should have won IMO after going up big early and then letting St Louis push them around and come back in a game where Stephen Jackson was essentially benched for much of it.

[Nivek]

Wrote an update on my now weekly "Can the Redskins Make the Playoffs?" series.

I'm estimating them with a 46% chance of reaching the postseason -- up from 1% when they were 3-6. There are still LOTS of scenarios (which I detail in the story), but there are chances for them to get in with 10, 9 and even 8 wins. They could conceivably get in as an 8-win division champ, OR an 8-win wildcard. Crazy.

[Rafael122]

Skins can't win the division next week. They have to win out and they became NFC East Champs. BUT they can clinch at least a wild card spot next week if the Skins win and Vikings/Bears/Giants all lose next week.

NFC East Standings
1. Redskins: 8-6
2. Cowboys: 8-6
3. Giants: 8-6

NFC Wild Card Standings:
1. Seahawks: 9-5
2. Vikings: 8-6
-----------------------------
3. Bears: 8-6
4. Cowboys: 8-6
5. Giants: 8-6

Key Week 16 games:

New Orleans @ Dallas
Washington @ Philadelphia
Minnesota @ Houston
Chicago @ Arizona
NY @ Baltimore
San Francisco @ Seattle