Instant Reaction: What Do The Heat Do This Off-Season?

[NYG]

What does Miami do this off-season?

[HadAnEffectHere]

IDK, their asset sheet and cap sheet is pretty awful. They have to extend Butler and then just... I don't know.

[brackdan70]

Is it crazy talk to consider trading Butler? He will be 35 next season…

[Wolveswin]

If I was a ______ fan, I would be very disappointed with a ‘just run it back’ (lack) of a ‘plan’ teams seem to have. 82 game marathon, followed by a multi tiered matchup massacre- seems like a no-man’s land any organization wants to be in.

[Colbinii]

I think Bam Adebayo is capable of being the 2nd best player on a title team but it would require a better #1 option or upgrading Herro/Rozier for more size while maintaining offensive spacing and talent.

Brandon Ingram is an interesting option.

A lower-end targer is Jerami Grant, but I don't think he really shifts the odds drastically in Miami's favor for a championship.

I'm a big believer in getting rid of players 1 year early rather than 1 year late, which moves Jimmy Butler up to the front of the line as a trade candidate.

[jbk1234]

They looked pretty competitive when both Butler and Rozier were healthy. I don't think that running it back is the worst option. That said, neither Herro nor Duncan did anything to help their trade value in that series and that's not good.

[jredsaz]

If they are looking to trade for a star level guy on Bams timeline I think they have to trade Butler to generate more assets. What teams are going to want playoff Jimmy? He is a tough asset to value.

[vxmike]

If they are looking to trade for a star level guy on Bams timeline I think they have to trade Butler to generate more assets. What teams are going to want playoff Jimmy? He is a tough asset to value.

Trading a 35 y/o Jimmy is the obvious move. He could be the final piece on a lot of teams. OKC and Knicks would be good fits.

[babyjax13]

They don't have a championship caliber core and that is what they aspire to. Changes are coming. I think they'll see what upgrades are available with some of their young players. I envision they push hard for Mitchell, and IMO, a trade of Herro, Jaquez, Robinson, and maybe a pick or two makes a lot of sense for both teams. If they do that they will also need to deal Rozier for a forward (which might be hard). If they could end their offseason with something like:

Mitchell/Butler/DFS/Jovic/Bam

They would be in a nice position. Feels pretty doable if Mitchell is on the block?

[babyjax13]

Here is an attempt at what an offseason might look like:

The Mitchell trade
MIA trades: Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Jamie Jacquez, 2030 MIA 1st (unprotected)
CLE trades: Donovan Mitchell

Miami gets a top 10-12 player in the NBA, Cleveland recoups a good starting shooting guard and a young starting small forward + adds a high variance future asset and a decent wing defender.

MIA trades: Duncan Robinson, 2029 pick swap (BRK receives higher of MIA/BRK 1st)
BRK trades: Dorian Finney-Smith, Keita Bates-Diop

Brooklyn gets an upside play banking on an injury or Butler getting older resulting in a middling roster. Miami gets a starting caliber 3.

Donovan Mitchell 34/Terry Rozier 14
Jimmy Butler 20/Terry Rozier 14/Josh Richardson 14
Dorian Finney-Smith 28/Jimmy Butler 10/Keita Bates-Diop 10
Nikola Jovic 28/Haywood Highsmith 20
Bam Adebayo 34/Kevin Love 14
+ player drafted 15th


=====
Or another version?

The Mitchell trade
MIA trades: Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Jamie Jacquez, 2030 MIA 1st (unprotected)
CLE trades: Donovan Mitchell

Miami gets a top 10-12 player in the NBA, Cleveland recoups a good starting shooting guard and a young starting small forward + adds a high variance future asset and a decent wing defender.

Getting a forward
MIA trades: Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, player drafted 16th, 2029 pick swap (POR receives higher of MIA/POR 1st)
in: Jerami Grant, Cole Anthony
Get a very good starting 3/4 while still having a sparkplug scorer off the bench (albeit not as good).

ORL trades: Cole Anthony
in: Terry Rozier, 2nds(?)
Get some offensive help.

POR trades: Jerami Grant, 2nds(?)
in: Duncan Robinson, player drafted 16th, 2029 pick swap (POR receives higher of MIA/POR 1st)
Get some upside for Grant.

Donovan Mitchell 26/Cole Anthony 22
Jimmy Butler 16/Josh Richardson 24/Donovan Mitchell 8
Jerami Grant 32/Jimmy Butler 16
Nikola Jovic 28/Haywood Highsmith 20
Bam Adebayo 34/Kevin Love 14

[jayjaysee]

What about Herro, JJJ, 2024 first, 2029 first for Lauri?

Assuming Orlando gives up two eh firsts for Herro and Utah likes JJJ as much as some of us do?

JJJ, a high variance first, and 3 meh firsts feels like enough?

[Wolveswin]

It can be two trades…

To Knicks: Butler + Filler
=reunite Butler and Thibs 3.0

To Jazz: Bogdanovic + McBride + 31 Heat 1st + 1sts from Knicks to tune of Butler value

To Cavs: Herro + Jaquez + 24 Heat 1st + 29 Heat 1st

To Heat: Mitchell + Hart + Markkanen

Bam
Markkanen | Jovic (when ready to start Robinson off bench)
Robinson | Martin
Hart or Rozier (other is 6th man)
Mitchell

[HadAnEffectHere]

What about Herro, JJJ, 2024 first, 2029 first for Lauri?

Assuming Orlando gives up two eh firsts for Herro and Utah likes JJJ as much as some of us do?

JJJ, a high variance first, and 3 meh firsts feels like enough?

JJJ is 23 years old, has never shot an acceptable number from three, and needs to shoot well to be a valuable player in the NBA.

This is basically "just give a bunch of extremely average firsts and prospects to a team with a billion average firsts and prospects already"

[brackdan70]

They don't have a championship caliber core and that is what they aspire to. Changes are coming. I think they'll see what upgrades are available with some of their young players. I envision they push hard for Mitchell, and IMO, a trade of Herro, Jaquez, Robinson, and maybe a pick or two makes a lot of sense for both teams. If they do that they will also need to deal Rozier for a forward (which might be hard). If they could end their offseason with something like:

Mitchell/Butler/DFS/Jovic/Bam

They would be in a nice position. Feels pretty doable if Mitchell is on the block?

They will need to stay under the second apron if they aggregate players. Going to be really tricky

[BBallFreak]

What about Herro, JJJ, 2024 first, 2029 first for Lauri?

Assuming Orlando gives up two eh firsts for Herro and Utah likes JJJ as much as some of us do?

JJJ, a high variance first, and 3 meh firsts feels like enough?

As a Heat fan, yes please! I love JJJ but I'll pack his bags and drive him to the airport.

Pg: Rozier / Richardson?
Sg: Butler / Robinson
Sf: Lauri / Martin?
Pf: Jovic / Love
Cc: Bam / Robinson

[HadAnEffectHere]

Jaquez Jr being 23 years old really needs to inform a lot more with regards to his trade value.

[drosestruts]

I think they mostly run it back - some tweaks that could be good for them


Trade 1 w/ Chicago:

Miami in: Ayo Dosunmu

Chicago in: Jamie Jaquez Jr and Nikola Jovic

Bulls have a crowded backcourt and a serious lack of size/depth w/ size. 2:1 deal gives Miami a, in my eyes, perfectly complimentary point guard for what they do. Ayo can defend, shoot, and playmaker. Post all-star break Ayo was scoring 17 points per game, with 5 assists and a TS% of 60.


Trade 2 w/ Orlando

Miami in: Jonathan Isaac, ORL 2024 2nd, and 2026 DET 2nd

Orlando in: Tyler Herro

Magic are looking for a young guard. Isaac while oft not available would fit Miami's frontcourt great when he is healthy. He does become a free agent after a season so the seconds are offered as some value if he bolts. Deal also saves Miami a good chunk of cap.


Heat:

Dosunmu/Rozier/Wright
Martin/Richardson
Butler/Robinson
Isaac/HighSmith
Adebayo/Bryant/Love/Robinson

Have fun playing against that team.

[jayjaysee]

Jaquez Jr being 23 years old really needs to inform a lot more with regards to his trade value.

I guess I’m confused why you’re so focused on 23 and not what he produced as a rookie?

He still has 3 cheap years left, followed by RFA. So his 7-8 years of team control end at age 30-31?

There are 23 year old rookies that look lost, and that’s a red flag sure.. but he looked NBA ready as expected and you hope he develops on a strong rookie season?

I mean Miami has another first they can and Jovic/etc value.. But I think you’re off on your valuation of JJJ.

[SkyHook]

What about Herro, JJJ, 2024 first, 2029 first for Lauri?

Assuming Orlando gives up two eh firsts for Herro and Utah likes JJJ as much as some of us do?

JJJ, a high variance first, and 3 meh firsts feels like enough?

Far less appealing from Utah's standpoint than other Markannen trades that have been proposed here recently. While I like JJJ and an unprotected 2029 FRP is nice, there's just not enough else there to entice the Jazz.

[Colbinii]

Jaquez Jr being 23 years old really needs to inform a lot more with regards to his trade value.

Yes, every part of him as an asset needs to be taken into account.

1) Positive impact on winning in Year 1
2) Under rookie contract control for 3 more seasons, then RFA status
3) Good size at a valuable position [Wing]
4) Even with a slightly underwhelming shooting season from 3, he was exactly league average at scoring. Bump him up to 34% [Less than 2% bump] and he is above league average efficiency.
5) Related to point 4, his 32% Corner 3 WILL improve. He brings that up and bam, his efficiency sky-rockets.

JJJ has clear positive, good value, and is good enough to be one of the major pieces a trade for a high-level starting player in the NBA.

However, if I were Miami, I wouldn't look to trade JJJ. His skill-set, contract situation and size create an excellent piece for a team wanting to contend over the next half-decade. Who wants to be competing for the next 5+ years? Miami Heat.

Miami is in a similar situation as the Lakers [2024, 2029 and 2031 1sts available and a PF/C duo with weaker guard/wing play], except I like JJJ more than Reaves moving forward [I also like Jovic moving forward as a wing].