Thoughts in General, Random Rumors and Musings, Blah Blah 14.0 Eddie Najera Edicion

[DrModesty]

On the Bill Simmons podcast today, Ryen Russillo said that he spoke to a number of front office staff around the league and that the feedback he got was that #1 this year is probably around #7-8 in a normal draft, and the lower end of feedback he got was it being the equivalent of #10.

He also said that you'd be looking at a 4th or 5th starter on a decent team as the sort of player available. The two speculated a Dort level guy could be the top end of guys you could get with it, and that Brooklyn would instantly turn down #1 + Hunter for Mikal Bridges.

Take it all with a grain of salt, but at least this is coming 2nd hand from front offices.

[zimpy27]

What’s the best singular pick that Giddey can get ?

How about giddey plus a future pick ?

I wonder if Spurs would trade #4 or #8 for Giddey. i think they should seriously consider it.

If not then I think Utah definitely give #10.

wow that's high. I would be so happy if we could get #8 for Giddey. I don't think he has that value but I do agree that his trade value might be higher than some think (he's only 21 years old and showed he can play well without many ball handlers).

I think Giddey has more value than people might expect.

He's played 32 games without SGA and put up 17ppg, 8rpg, 7.3apg, 3topg
More recently his efficiency is getting up there, 58.5% TS in games without SGA this season.

As the main distributor he likely is a 20-10-10 player as soon as next season.

[Dadouv47]

I wonder if Spurs would trade #4 or #8 for Giddey. i think they should seriously consider it.

If not then I think Utah definitely give #10.

wow that's high. I would be so happy if we could get #8 for Giddey. I don't think he has that value but I do agree that his trade value might be higher than some think (he's only 21 years old and showed he can play well without many ball handlers).

I think Giddey has more value than people might expect.

He's played 32 games without SGA and put up 17ppg, 8rpg, 7.3apg, 3topg
More recently his efficiency is getting up there, 58.5% TS in games without SGA this season.

As the main distributor he likely is a 20-10-10 player as soon as next season.

probably but his value is highly dependent to how much money he's willing to take this offseason.

[Devilanche]

wow that's high. I would be so happy if we could get #8 for Giddey. I don't think he has that value but I do agree that his trade value might be higher than some think (he's only 21 years old and showed he can play well without many ball handlers).

I think Giddey has more value than people might expect.

He's played 32 games without SGA and put up 17ppg, 8rpg, 7.3apg, 3topg
More recently his efficiency is getting up there, 58.5% TS in games without SGA this season.

As the main distributor he likely is a 20-10-10 player as soon as next season.

probably but his value is highly dependent to how much money he's willing to take this offseason.

Yea mindful he is to be paid sooner rather than later. Would doubt he can net a top 12 pick on his own. Basically given a chance of adding Giddey or OKC pick 12, most team will probably take 12 though.

If a team is willing take giddey and work through with him to be a passable 3 point shooter and/or defender, they can be richly rewarded in future.

I have his value at somewhere around 15-20 in this draft so a tad lower than others.

[TheBrooklynKidd]

I think Giddey has more value than people might expect.

He's played 32 games without SGA and put up 17ppg, 8rpg, 7.3apg, 3topg
More recently his efficiency is getting up there, 58.5% TS in games without SGA this season.

As the main distributor he likely is a 20-10-10 player as soon as next season.

probably but his value is highly dependent to how much money he's willing to take this offseason.

Yea mindful he is to be paid sooner rather than later. Would doubt he can net a top 12 pick on his own. Basically given a chance of adding Giddey or OKC pick 12, most team will probably take 12 though.

If a team is willing take giddey and work through with him to be a passable 3 point shooter and/or defender, they can be richly rewarded in future.

I have his value at somewhere around 15-20 in this draft so a tad lower than others.

All of those on-court reasons are real.

But the most significant explanation for Giddey’s value being so low is the elephant in the room.

No team wants to pay a flawed player with that much PR risk.

Clearly the Thunder feel the same way.

[TheBrooklynKidd]

On the Bill Simmons podcast today, Ryen Russillo said that he spoke to a number of front office staff around the league and that the feedback he got was that #1 this year is probably around #7-8 in a normal draft, and the lower end of feedback he got was it being the equivalent of #10.

He also said that you'd be looking at a 4th or 5th starter on a decent team as the sort of player available. The two speculated a Dort level guy could be the top end of guys you could get with it, and that Brooklyn would instantly turn down #1 + Hunter for Mikal Bridges.

Take it all with a grain of salt, but at least this is coming 2nd hand from front offices.

Dort is excessive but I tend to agree with them.

Logically it comes down to justifying the risk of a draft prospect being a complete bust (~50%).

Since Bridges is basically a guaranteed 3rd option, to justify that risk you should draft someone with a reasonable path to becoming a 2nd option.

I just don’t see that path for anyone in this draft class.

I know statistically someone will probably become that but keep in mind only 1 player from the 2013 draft ever became a 1st/2nd option.

…and this year there’s no grainy footage of a Greek teenager playing YMCA pick up games. Every player has been thoroughly scouted.

[DrModesty]

On the Bill Simmons podcast today, Ryen Russillo said that he spoke to a number of front office staff around the league and that the feedback he got was that #1 this year is probably around #7-8 in a normal draft, and the lower end of feedback he got was it being the equivalent of #10.

He also said that you'd be looking at a 4th or 5th starter on a decent team as the sort of player available. The two speculated a Dort level guy could be the top end of guys you could get with it, and that Brooklyn would instantly turn down #1 + Hunter for Mikal Bridges.

Take it all with a grain of salt, but at least this is coming 2nd hand from front offices.

Dort is excessive but I tend to agree with them.

Logically it comes down to justifying the risk of a draft prospect being a complete bust (~50%).

Since Bridges is basically a guaranteed 3rd option, to justify that risk the guy you draft should have a reasonable path to becoming a 2nd option.

I just don’t see that path for anyone in this draft class.

I know statistically someone will probably become that but keep in mind only 1 player from the 2013 draft ever became a 1st or 2nd option.

…and there’s no grainy footage of a Greek teenager playing YMCA pick up games this year.

I mean you say Dort is excessive, but follow the same logic. He is currently the 4a/4b option on a 2nd round playoff team who is fringe all defense, 39% 3pt shooter who just turned 25 and has a good, long term contract. Essentially to justify trading away a Dort, there needs to be a reasonable chance the guy you draft turns in to a Bridges/OG/Derrick White/Aaron Gordon level player.

Specifically given OKC's ascendency in to contender, there is no guarantee OKC would actually be willing to give Dort away for the #1 pick. I'd be tempted, given Wallace is on the roster. But can OKC really be taking steps backwards? The clock is ticking before the team gets expensive, and if the #1 pick doesn't hit, you just shot yourself in the foot. If Dort was on the Nets, you clearly trade him for the pick, because the Nets need the variance.

As an aside Dort would also be a near ideal SG to pair with Trae, so Dort is interesting on that front too.

[jayjaysee]

I don’t think Giddey’s off court stuff is really a major factor here. I know the news is recent, but the incident was when he was 19… did other females come in and accuse Giddey? Or was this a one time where he met a girl at a club, who wasn’t supposed to be at a club? Or did he get the girl into the club?..

If there’s no answers/statement, I think it’s behind him in real life?

His value is more depressed because on a team where everyone seems to be developing to their best case scenario.. he stays stagnant mostly

[MoneyTalks41890]

I would trade Dort for the 1st pick in this draft in a heartbeat. You could ask me one million times and the answer is the same every time.

[Devilanche]

I don’t think Giddey’s off court stuff is really a major factor here. I know the news is recent, but the incident was when he was 19… did other females come in and accuse Giddey? Or was this a one time where he met a girl at a club, who wasn’t supposed to be at a club? Or did he get the girl into the club?..

If there’s no answers/statement, I think it’s behind him in real life?

His value is more depressed because on a team where everyone seems to be developing to their best case scenario.. he stays stagnant mostly

His value would be a lot better if he’s shooting 39% from 3s on decent value obviously. The news to me is more or less over unless there’s new development . Teams that will avoid trading for him previously because of the news probably will still be avoiding him.

[Devilanche]

I would trade Dort for the 1st pick in this draft in a heartbeat. You could ask me one million times and the answer is the same every time.

I would support that trade too. And there’s no guarantee that pick will be better than Dort is but still willing to make that trade .

[MoneyTalks41890]

So what about Trae to Houston? Something around Jalen/3?

Amen, Tari, Jabari, and Brooks help hide him defensively. Adams would be solid there too in some minutes.

[TheBrooklynKidd]

On the Bill Simmons podcast today, Ryen Russillo said that he spoke to a number of front office staff around the league and that the feedback he got was that #1 this year is probably around #7-8 in a normal draft, and the lower end of feedback he got was it being the equivalent of #10.

He also said that you'd be looking at a 4th or 5th starter on a decent team as the sort of player available. The two speculated a Dort level guy could be the top end of guys you could get with it, and that Brooklyn would instantly turn down #1 + Hunter for Mikal Bridges.

Take it all with a grain of salt, but at least this is coming 2nd hand from front offices.

Dort is excessive but I tend to agree with them.

Logically it comes down to justifying the risk of a draft prospect being a complete bust (~50%).

Since Bridges is basically a guaranteed 3rd option, to justify that risk the guy you draft should have a reasonable path to becoming a 2nd option.

I just don’t see that path for anyone in this draft class.

I know statistically someone will probably become that but keep in mind only 1 player from the 2013 draft ever became a 1st or 2nd option.

…and there’s no grainy footage of a Greek teenager playing YMCA pick up games this year.

I mean you say Dort is excessive, but follow the same logic. He is currently the 4a/4b option on a 2nd round playoff team who is fringe all defense, 39% 3pt shooter who just turned 25 and has a good, long term contract. Essentially to justify trading away a Dort, there needs to be a reasonable chance the guy you draft turns in to a Bridges/OG/Derrick White/Aaron Gordon level player.

Specifically given OKC's ascendency in to contender, there is no guarantee OKC would actually be willing to give Dort away for the #1 pick. I'd be tempted, given Wallace is on the roster. But can OKC really be taking steps backwards? The clock is ticking before the team gets expensive, and if the #1 pick doesn't hit, you just shot yourself in the foot. If Dort was on the Nets, you clearly trade him for the pick, because the Nets need the variance.

As an aside Dort would also be a near ideal SG to pair with Trae, so Dort is interesting on that front too.

Following this logic I do think there’s a reasonable chance of guys becoming better than Dort in this class.

For OKC specifically I think Clingan would be a great fit at #1.

[Scoot McGroot]

I don’t think Giddey’s off court stuff is really a major factor here. I know the news is recent, but the incident was when he was 19… did other females come in and accuse Giddey? Or was this a one time where he met a girl at a club, who wasn’t supposed to be at a club? Or did he get the girl into the club?..

If there’s no answers/statement, I think it’s behind him in real life?

His value is more depressed because on a team where everyone seems to be developing to their best case scenario.. he stays stagnant mostly

I would imagine that some, or maybe many, teams would still have concerns, as Giddey wasn't cleared, per se, as much as the police acknowledged that the then underage girl involved and her family weren't cooperating with the police.

Hypothetically, if the family in question decided to cooperate with police, or request a payoff or something, the case would be reopened and started all over again? I would imagine many teams don't want to be involved in that type of situation.

[HartfordWhalers]

I don’t think Giddey’s off court stuff is really a major factor here. I know the news is recent, but the incident was when he was 19… did other females come in and accuse Giddey? Or was this a one time where he met a girl at a club, who wasn’t supposed to be at a club? Or did he get the girl into the club?..

If there’s no answers/statement, I think it’s behind him in real life?

His value is more depressed because on a team where everyone seems to be developing to their best case scenario.. he stays stagnant mostly

I would imagine that some, or maybe many, teams would still have concerns, as Giddey wasn't cleared, per se, as much as the police acknowledged that the then underage girl involved and her family weren't cooperating with the police.

Hypothetically, if the family in question decided to cooperate with police, or request a payoff or something, the case would be reopened and started all over again? I would imagine many teams don't want to be involved in that type of situation.

Not speaking about this situation, about which I have no knowledge. But isn't the usual that the payout is agreed to in exchange for not cooperating with the police? I have the odds of this case coming back as close to 0. Now if there is a concern about a pattern of behavior and a new similar situation, that gets different fast.

[DrModesty]

Dort is excessive but I tend to agree with them.

Logically it comes down to justifying the risk of a draft prospect being a complete bust (~50%).

Since Bridges is basically a guaranteed 3rd option, to justify that risk the guy you draft should have a reasonable path to becoming a 2nd option.

I just don’t see that path for anyone in this draft class.

I know statistically someone will probably become that but keep in mind only 1 player from the 2013 draft ever became a 1st or 2nd option.

…and there’s no grainy footage of a Greek teenager playing YMCA pick up games this year.

I mean you say Dort is excessive, but follow the same logic. He is currently the 4a/4b option on a 2nd round playoff team who is fringe all defense, 39% 3pt shooter who just turned 25 and has a good, long term contract. Essentially to justify trading away a Dort, there needs to be a reasonable chance the guy you draft turns in to a Bridges/OG/Derrick White/Aaron Gordon level player.

Specifically given OKC's ascendency in to contender, there is no guarantee OKC would actually be willing to give Dort away for the #1 pick. I'd be tempted, given Wallace is on the roster. But can OKC really be taking steps backwards? The clock is ticking before the team gets expensive, and if the #1 pick doesn't hit, you just shot yourself in the foot. If Dort was on the Nets, you clearly trade him for the pick, because the Nets need the variance.

As an aside Dort would also be a near ideal SG to pair with Trae, so Dort is interesting on that front too.

Following this logic I do think there’s a reasonable chance of guys becoming better than Dort in this class.

For OKC specifically I think Clingan would be a great fit at #1.

I expect at least several will have better career's than Dort, just gotta pick the right one

However, I also think Dort represents close to the top end of player you could get for the first, as opposed to being an exaggerated example to make a point of the lack of value high picks hold in this draft. If you are willing to eat a less palatable contract, I think you could get a guy like FVV (Not him specifically, but that level of player).

[jayjaysee]

I don’t think Giddey’s off court stuff is really a major factor here. I know the news is recent, but the incident was when he was 19… did other females come in and accuse Giddey? Or was this a one time where he met a girl at a club, who wasn’t supposed to be at a club? Or did he get the girl into the club?..

If there’s no answers/statement, I think it’s behind him in real life?

His value is more depressed because on a team where everyone seems to be developing to their best case scenario.. he stays stagnant mostly

I would imagine that some, or maybe many, teams would still have concerns, as Giddey wasn't cleared, per se, as much as the police acknowledged that the then underage girl involved and her family weren't cooperating with the police.

Hypothetically, if the family in question decided to cooperate with police, or request a payoff or something, the case would be reopened and started all over again? I would imagine many teams don't want to be involved in that type of situation.

Yeah, I don’t know. I feel like the fact that it took two years to come out hints to something.

Not guessing what the something is at all though.

[LarsV8]

So what about Trae to Houston? Something around Jalen/3?

Amen, Tari, Jabari, and Brooks help hide him defensively. Adams would be solid there too in some minutes.

yes, please

[jayjaysee]

So what about Trae to Houston? Something around Jalen/3?

Amen, Tari, Jabari, and Brooks help hide him defensively. Adams would be solid there too in some minutes.

I think I’d want another first and not Jalen. Take Jalen if you can get him, but would want another first.. doesn’t have to be a Brooklyn first*

I think Atlanta goes the opposite way and tries to contend, but agree Houston makes a lot of sense for Trae.

[Scoot McGroot]

I don’t think Giddey’s off court stuff is really a major factor here. I know the news is recent, but the incident was when he was 19… did other females come in and accuse Giddey? Or was this a one time where he met a girl at a club, who wasn’t supposed to be at a club? Or did he get the girl into the club?..

If there’s no answers/statement, I think it’s behind him in real life?

His value is more depressed because on a team where everyone seems to be developing to their best case scenario.. he stays stagnant mostly

I would imagine that some, or maybe many, teams would still have concerns, as Giddey wasn't cleared, per se, as much as the police acknowledged that the then underage girl involved and her family weren't cooperating with the police.

Hypothetically, if the family in question decided to cooperate with police, or request a payoff or something, the case would be reopened and started all over again? I would imagine many teams don't want to be involved in that type of situation.

Not speaking about this situation, about which I have no knowledge. But isn't the usual that the payout is agreed to in exchange for not cooperating with the police? I have the odds of this case coming back as close to 0. Now if there is a concern about a pattern of behavior and a new similar situation, that gets different fast.

Yup. I don't know the specifics of why the family didn't cooperate, and I'm just speaking hypothetically, of course. But just pointing out that teams could still be uneasy here.

I don’t think Giddey’s off court stuff is really a major factor here. I know the news is recent, but the incident was when he was 19… did other females come in and accuse Giddey? Or was this a one time where he met a girl at a club, who wasn’t supposed to be at a club? Or did he get the girl into the club?..

If there’s no answers/statement, I think it’s behind him in real life?

His value is more depressed because on a team where everyone seems to be developing to their best case scenario.. he stays stagnant mostly

I would imagine that some, or maybe many, teams would still have concerns, as Giddey wasn't cleared, per se, as much as the police acknowledged that the then underage girl involved and her family weren't cooperating with the police.

Hypothetically, if the family in question decided to cooperate with police, or request a payoff or something, the case would be reopened and started all over again? I would imagine many teams don't want to be involved in that type of situation.

Yeah, I don’t know. I feel like the fact that it took two years to come out hints to something.

Not guessing what the something is at all though.

Yeah. I have no more knowledge than anyone else publicly here. But just seems that there could still be some team uneasiness, despite there not being a "brewing cauldron", so to speak?