Thoughts in General, Random Rumors and Musings, Blah Blah 14.0 Eddie Najera Edicion

[Texas Chuck]

I mean this seems super obvious to me, but also completely foreign to most of you, so maybe I'm the one way off basse.

But when you tell me a team selling a star player should look to trade for their own picks back rather than getting known high picks/prospects now, you are saying they should intentionally suck for the next 4-5 years and then hope they win the lottery with their own picks.

Just sorry, but that's a terrible sales pitch to a GM/governor/fanbase. Like just absolutely terrible. In order to recoup the value for your star you have to fail for years.

Never ever would I choose that path. Especially not as the GM who gets fired after doing all that losing to get the value.

Better to trade your player for actual value, accept the sunk cost of your own picks being gone and being able to start trying to both accumulate talent and assemble a team. Here you have to intentionally not bring in players who help develop these future picks increasing the likelihood they bust.

But I'm too aggressive for simply pointing out the Spurs don't hold the Hawks hostage here so ignore me. All your wildest dreams will come true.

I think you're just overstating it a bit. Having picks is valuable. Having picks that you can control can be more valuable. They could choose to go for the hard tank. Or they could choose to keep chasing the play-in only now they'd get to keep those late lottery picks and kind of split the baby, by being semi-competitive AND semi-rebuild.

Yes having picks is better than not.

But the choice here isn't between picks and no picks. It's being asked to take back picks that get more valuable the worse you are. So you can't both get better and get good assets for your star player. You either punt value on the return because you insisted on your own picks back or you went through years of misery.

The Hawks picks are a sunk cost. They are now just another asset. One actually less valuable to the Hawks not more valuable. Because you don't have to forgo improving your team to get value unless you take back your own picks.

Spurs have immediate value they could send in a Trae trade. Hawks far better off taking that.

[dms269]

People seem to forget that our owner is concerned about two things: making money and not spending money

A full on tank does not do the first one.
Being a middling playoff/play-in team provides him the opportunity to do both.

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app

[NYG]

I don’t think Trae is the one to trade.. If you put a good defense around him, he raises your floor it seems… But if they do..

Does taking on Zach make any sense? Give up a low value asset to turn the third teams contracts into Zach?

That works with Utah or Brooklyn pretty easily..

Or is it better to just not have Zach?

Bringing in a “star” who is also great friends with Murray and locked up for the pick debt years..

I like adding that leg to most Trae trades unless Atlanta plans to make Realgm happy and trade for their picks back.

Clint Capela and Keldon Johnson to the Bulls
Trae Young and AJ Griffin to the Spurs
Zach LaVine, 4th Overall, '25 Hawks 1st and '26 Swap Rights Returned via SAS to the Hawks

[NYG]

People seem to forget that our owner is concerned about two things: making money and not spending money

A full on tank does not do the first one.
Being a middling playoff/play-in team provides him the opportunity to do both.

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app

How do you feel about the deal above?

Keeps the Hawks competitive enough to make the play-in and saves them a lot of money up front.

[NYG]

I like Trae Young and think he would be a good get but I guarantee you the Spurs would never entertain trading ATL all of the assets they gave up for Murray to get Young, let alone adding more to it. The Hawks massively overpaid for Murray and that's their problem, not the Spurs' to try and even out for them

What about if the Hawks add AJ Griffin and you just sent back the '25 1st and the swap in '26?

Keldon Johnson, 4th Overall, 2025 Hawks 1st and 2026 Pick Swap Returned for Trae Young and AJ Griffin?

[Ball4life32]

I mean this seems super obvious to me, but also completely foreign to most of you, so maybe I'm the one way off basse.

But when you tell me a team selling a star player should look to trade for their own picks back rather than getting known high picks/prospects now, you are saying they should intentionally suck for the next 4-5 years and then hope they win the lottery with their own picks.

Just sorry, but that's a terrible sales pitch to a GM/governor/fanbase. Like just absolutely terrible. In order to recoup the value for your star you have to fail for years.

Never ever would I choose that path. Especially not as the GM who gets fired after doing all that losing to get the value.

Better to trade your player for actual value, accept the sunk cost of your own picks being gone and being able to start trying to both accumulate talent and assemble a team. Here you have to intentionally not bring in players who help develop these future picks increasing the likelihood they bust.

But I'm too aggressive for simply pointing out the Spurs don't hold the Hawks hostage here so ignore me. All your wildest dreams will come true.

I mean, yes, the best option for the Hawks is to intentionally suck for the next four years because they screwed themselves so badly that they have no real realistic paths to even the second round and have huge salary commitments coming up.

This is why teams shouldn't trade tons of good firsts for marginal players.

Hawks top players aren’t even in their prime and we’ve already seen them make it past the 2nd the last time they even had an average defense. Not saying they will make another run but it’s all tbd depending on how some of the young guys develop + what they do if they retool…..if the hawks had an older team on the decline Id definitely be more inclined to blow things up. And even then it would be risky considering hawks didn’t tank (outside of maybe last week of the yr) and just got the #1 pick….

[NYG]

What about Trae for KAT if the T'Wolves don't beat Denver?

KAT/Sarr/Johnson/Bogdan/Murray

Trade Capela/Hunter for bench help

[Bornstellar]

I like Trae Young and think he would be a good get but I guarantee you the Spurs would never entertain trading ATL all of the assets they gave up for Murray to get Young, let alone adding more to it. The Hawks massively overpaid for Murray and that's their problem, not the Spurs' to try and even out for them

What about if the Hawks add AJ Griffin and you just sent back the '25 1st and the swap in '26?

Keldon Johnson, 4th Overall, 2025 Hawks 1st and 2026 Pick Swap Returned for Trae Young and AJ Griffin?

A bit more palatable but I don't think the Spurs value Griffin that highly. I think they value that 2025 ATL 1st highly though and won't easily part with it

[HornetJail]

What about Trae for KAT if the T'Wolves don't beat Denver?

KAT/Sarr/Johnson/Bogdan/Murray

Trade Capela/Hunter for bench help

I am probably higher than most on KAT on this board, but there's no way he's fetching Trae by himself.

[youngcrev]

I think there's a pretty high percentage chance that the Sixers trade the #16 pick. Maybe it's for a player, but from a cap space/preserving an asset perspective, I think getting back a quality future 1st would make a ton of sense (and maybe an early 2nd this year since they don't count against the cap until signed).

Any glaring teams that stand out as wanting to get into the middle of this draft?

[jayjaysee]

I think there's a pretty high percentage chance that the Sixers trade the #16 pick. Maybe it's for a player, but from a cap space/preserving an asset perspective, I think getting back a quality future 1st would make a ton of sense (and maybe an early 2nd this year since they don't count against the cap until signed).

Any glaring teams that stand out as wanting to get into the middle of this draft?

I think Morey will keep his contract matching options open until PG agrees to sign.

I’m going 16 to NY for 24, 25, 38. Sticking with HW’s future 2nd to your team..

Either gives three bodies on the bench once George is signed, that only cost about 3.5 million of cap space.. or you can combine Reed with player drafted 24 and 25 and come real close to matching Lauri..

Maybe a future second tossed in either way.

[Godaddycurse]

I think there's a pretty high percentage chance that the Sixers trade the #16 pick. Maybe it's for a player, but from a cap space/preserving an asset perspective, I think getting back a quality future 1st would make a ton of sense (and maybe an early 2nd this year since they don't count against the cap until signed).

Any glaring teams that stand out as wanting to get into the middle of this draft?

I think Morey will keep his contract matching options open until PG agrees to sign.

I’m going 16 to NY for 24, 25, 38. Sticking with HW’s future 2nd to your team..

Either gives three bodies on the bench once George is signed, that only cost about 3.5 million of cap space.. or you can combine Reed with player drafted 24 and 25 and come real close to matching Lauri..

Maybe a future second tossed in either way.

Where did you get 3.5M from? 24 and 25th pick makes about 2.5 mil each

[jayjaysee]

I think there's a pretty high percentage chance that the Sixers trade the #16 pick. Maybe it's for a player, but from a cap space/preserving an asset perspective, I think getting back a quality future 1st would make a ton of sense (and maybe an early 2nd this year since they don't count against the cap until signed).

Any glaring teams that stand out as wanting to get into the middle of this draft?

I think Morey will keep his contract matching options open until PG agrees to sign.

I’m going 16 to NY for 24, 25, 38. Sticking with HW’s future 2nd to your team..

Either gives three bodies on the bench once George is signed, that only cost about 3.5 million of cap space.. or you can combine Reed with player drafted 24 and 25 and come real close to matching Lauri..

Maybe a future second tossed in either way.

Where did you get 3.5M from? 24 and 25th pick makes about 2.5 mil each

How much is the open roster spot hold, for when Philly actually has cap space? Figure it has to be 1.2ish this summer? So 2.4ish to have 12 open roster spots or 5ish to have 10 open roster spots crediting the two rookies

less than 3.5 million in cap space lost?

[youngcrev]

I think there's a pretty high percentage chance that the Sixers trade the #16 pick. Maybe it's for a player, but from a cap space/preserving an asset perspective, I think getting back a quality future 1st would make a ton of sense (and maybe an early 2nd this year since they don't count against the cap until signed).

Any glaring teams that stand out as wanting to get into the middle of this draft?

I think Morey will keep his contract matching options open until PG agrees to sign.

I’m going 16 to NY for 24, 25, 38. Sticking with HW’s future 2nd to your team..

Either gives three bodies on the bench once George is signed, that only cost about 3.5 million of cap space.. or you can combine Reed with player drafted 24 and 25 and come real close to matching Lauri..

Maybe a future second tossed in either way.

16 feels like a better immediate trade asset if that's the route (in general, but also particularly with your Lauri example, who I don't think they have enough assets for anyway), and doesn't solve preserving the asset/cap space if not.

[Godaddycurse]

I think Morey will keep his contract matching options open until PG agrees to sign.

I’m going 16 to NY for 24, 25, 38. Sticking with HW’s future 2nd to your team..

Either gives three bodies on the bench once George is signed, that only cost about 3.5 million of cap space.. or you can combine Reed with player drafted 24 and 25 and come real close to matching Lauri..

Maybe a future second tossed in either way.

Where did you get 3.5M from? 24 and 25th pick makes about 2.5 mil each

How much is the open roster spot hold, for when Philly actually has cap space? Figure it has to be 1.2ish this summer? So 2.4ish to have 12 open roster spots or 5ish to have 10 open roster spots crediting the two rookies

less than 3.5 million in cap space lost?

16th pick makes close to 4M, + 2 roster hold = 6.5M.

24 + 25 + roster hold/2nd= ~6M ish

Not sure i see the difference from a cap space perspective.

If they want to save cap thet should trade 16 for future pick

[jayjaysee]

Where did you get 3.5M from? 24 and 25th pick makes about 2.5 mil each

How much is the open roster spot hold, for when Philly actually has cap space? Figure it has to be 1.2ish this summer? So 2.4ish to have 12 open roster spots or 5ish to have 10 open roster spots crediting the two rookies

less than 3.5 million in cap space lost?

16th pick makes close to 4M, + 2 roster hold = 6.5M.

24 + 25 + roster hold/2nd= ~6M ish

Not sure i see the difference from a cap space perspective.

If they want to save cap thet should trade 16 for future pick

When you trade “24 and 25” they can bring back the extra money in a trade though. The lost cap space is the minor down side. The extra body is the minor upside?

It might be minor as said, but if Philly strikes out on PG and goes with running it back, you get a bit of help in matching Lauri or Bridges. Where as 16 is 4 million in salary sent out. 24 and 25 is 5.6 salary sent out.

Then say you do sign Paul George, you might be able to keep Melton or Buddy and then trade Reed/24/25 for Lauri. I’m not sure if those numbers work. But Morey is better at cap games than I am.

But the extra matching salary was the why. Philly will be walking a thin line if they decide to play and the extra couple million could matter

[youngcrev]

How much is the open roster spot hold, for when Philly actually has cap space? Figure it has to be 1.2ish this summer? So 2.4ish to have 12 open roster spots or 5ish to have 10 open roster spots crediting the two rookies

less than 3.5 million in cap space lost?

16th pick makes close to 4M, + 2 roster hold = 6.5M.

24 + 25 + roster hold/2nd= ~6M ish

Not sure i see the difference from a cap space perspective.

If they want to save cap thet should trade 16 for future pick

When you trade “24 and 25” they can bring back the extra money in a trade though. The lost cap space is the minor down side. The extra body is the minor upside?

It might be minor as said, but if Philly strikes out on PG and goes with running it back, you get a bit of help in matching Lauri or Bridges. Where as 16 is 4 million in salary sent out. 24 and 25 is 5.6 salary sent out.

Then say you do sign Paul George, you might be able to keep Melton or Buddy and then trade Reed/24/25 for Lauri. I’m not sure if those numbers work. But Morey is better at cap games than I am.

But the extra matching salary was the why. Philly will be walking a thin line if they decide to play and the extra couple million could matter

Feels like some major gymnastics to where they'd be worrying about minor salary matching flexibility, particularly as a cap space team. You'd also have to line this up way ahead of time to draft the players the other team would want.

[jayjaysee]

16th pick makes close to 4M, + 2 roster hold = 6.5M.

24 + 25 + roster hold/2nd= ~6M ish

Not sure i see the difference from a cap space perspective.

If they want to save cap thet should trade 16 for future pick

When you trade “24 and 25” they can bring back the extra money in a trade though. The lost cap space is the minor down side. The extra body is the minor upside?

It might be minor as said, but if Philly strikes out on PG and goes with running it back, you get a bit of help in matching Lauri or Bridges. Where as 16 is 4 million in salary sent out. 24 and 25 is 5.6 salary sent out.

Then say you do sign Paul George, you might be able to keep Melton or Buddy and then trade Reed/24/25 for Lauri. I’m not sure if those numbers work. But Morey is better at cap games than I am.

But the extra matching salary was the why. Philly will be walking a thin line if they decide to play and the extra couple million could matter

Feels like some major gymnastics to where they'd be worrying about minor salary matching flexibility, particularly as a cap space team. You'd also have to line this up way ahead of time to draft the players the other team would want.

Don’t think trading back is major gymnastics? It’s common and a team with NYK’s depth wanting to trade up makes sense..

Explaining all the potential benefits of trading back or up, is gymnastics though..

Whether Philly ends up a cap space team or ends up trying to trade for Lauri or Bridges or … and keeping their current supporting cast won’t be known at the draft necessarily.

[Residual-Heat]

If the Wolves decide to trade KAT. One destination I like is Detroit. Pair him with Ausar in the front court. Maybe something around Duren (who would either go to a third team or to Minnesota). Maybe even Ivey+Duren, though I think that maybe a bit too much. I just think he's a good fir with Ausar and Cade.

[youngcrev]

When you trade “24 and 25” they can bring back the extra money in a trade though. The lost cap space is the minor down side. The extra body is the minor upside?

It might be minor as said, but if Philly strikes out on PG and goes with running it back, you get a bit of help in matching Lauri or Bridges. Where as 16 is 4 million in salary sent out. 24 and 25 is 5.6 salary sent out.

Then say you do sign Paul George, you might be able to keep Melton or Buddy and then trade Reed/24/25 for Lauri. I’m not sure if those numbers work. But Morey is better at cap games than I am.

But the extra matching salary was the why. Philly will be walking a thin line if they decide to play and the extra couple million could matter

Feels like some major gymnastics to where they'd be worrying about minor salary matching flexibility, particularly as a cap space team. You'd also have to line this up way ahead of time to draft the players the other team would want.

Don’t think trading back is major gymnastics? It’s common and a team with NYK’s depth wanting to trade up makes sense..

Explaining all the potential benefits of trading back or up, is gymnastics though..

Whether Philly ends up a cap space team or ends up trying to trade for Lauri or Bridges or … and keeping their current supporting cast won’t be known at the draft necessarily.

The idea of trading back for multiple picks in general doesn't require a lot of mental gymnastics, the idea that they'd do it so that they'd get some minor salary matching advantage down the road in the event of a really specific deal coming about does.

Regardless, as I originally said, I think it's very likely that they trade their pick, either for a veteran or for a future pick to preserve as much cap space as possible. Trading back for multiple 1sts this year feels like an unlikely path.