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Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:51 pm
by ConSarnit
basketballwacko2 wrote:
DowJones wrote:I like Young to San Antonio for their picks back plus their first this year provided it isn't 1st or 2nd. I would love to see Young/Wemby for the next 10 years.


I think the only way they trade Young is if the Spurs want him and are willing to trade the Hawks picks and Swap back to them as part of a package.


I think that type of package makes the deal very difficult from ATL's side. I'm not saying the value is bad but the optics look terrible. How do you sell your fanbase on trading your star player... for your own picks back?

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:49 pm
by basketballwacko2
ConSarnit wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:
DowJones wrote:I like Young to San Antonio for their picks back plus their first this year provided it isn't 1st or 2nd. I would love to see Young/Wemby for the next 10 years.


I think the only way they trade Young is if the Spurs want him and are willing to trade the Hawks picks and Swap back to them as part of a package.


I think that type of package makes the deal very difficult from ATL's side. I'm not saying the value is bad but the optics look terrible. How do you sell your fanbase on trading your star player... for your own picks back?


Well there would need to be a little more than just getting their own picks back. Or you could just roll out an M1A1 Abrams Tank and say we need the picks to make this thing work.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:15 am
by NYG
If Atlanta keeps Trae then I don't see them trading their other vets for picks, but rather equally valued, better-fitting veterans

If Atlanta does rebuild then I think it goes full rebuild including Trae and the only Trae deal that makes sense in that case involves getting your picks back from the Spurs and San Antonio could add enough to make the offer competitive

Basically... my opinion is that Trae Young is a Hawk or a Spur in 2024-25.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:16 am
by NYG
NYG wrote:If Atlanta keeps Trae then I don't see them trading their other vets for picks, but rather equally valued, better-fitting veterans


To expand on this part... who are some available veterans that fit next to Trae should Atlanta keep him?

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2024 2:07 pm
by MessiahUjiri
ConSarnit wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:
DowJones wrote:I like Young to San Antonio for their picks back plus their first this year provided it isn't 1st or 2nd. I would love to see Young/Wemby for the next 10 years.


I think the only way they trade Young is if the Spurs want him and are willing to trade the Hawks picks and Swap back to them as part of a package.


I think that type of package makes the deal very difficult from ATL's side. I'm not saying the value is bad but the optics look terrible. How do you sell your fanbase on trading your star player... for your own picks back?



It’s actually not that bad.

Consider this package:

Devin Vassell
Tre Jones
‘25 better of ATL/SAS pick
‘26 swap rights to SAS (ie reverse the current swap rights)
‘26 CHI pick (top 8 protected)



Vassell would fit right into the starting lineup. Tre becomes backup PG, and he also expires so ATL has the option to resign him or let him walk if they are tax conscious. Bufkin should be ready by year 3 to be the backup PG.


Dejounte / Tre / Bufkin
Vassell / Bogdanovic
DeAndre / AJ
JJohnson / Saddiq
Capela / Okongwu



They would have tons of picks. May become one of the top 3-4 “pick rich” teams in the league.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2024 3:43 pm
by dms269
MessiahUjiri wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:
I think the only way they trade Young is if the Spurs want him and are willing to trade the Hawks picks and Swap back to them as part of a package.


I think that type of package makes the deal very difficult from ATL's side. I'm not saying the value is bad but the optics look terrible. How do you sell your fanbase on trading your star player... for your own picks back?



It’s actually not that bad.

Consider this package:

Devin Vassell
Tre Jones
‘25 better of ATL/SAS pick
‘26 swap rights to SAS (ie reverse the current swap rights)
‘26 CHI pick (top 8 protected)



Vassell would fit right into the starting lineup. Tre becomes backup PG, and he also expires so ATL has the option to resign him or let him walk if they are tax conscious. Bufkin should be ready by year 3 to be the backup PG.


Dejounte / Tre / Bufkin
Vassell / Bogdanovic
DeAndre / AJ
JJohnson / Saddiq
Capela / Okongwu



They would have tons of picks. May become one of the top 3-4 “pick rich” teams in the league.
How does "tons of picks" equal first in each year except 27, which they would still owe to the Spurs?

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2024 3:51 pm
by MessiahUjiri
dms269 wrote:
MessiahUjiri wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
I think that type of package makes the deal very difficult from ATL's side. I'm not saying the value is bad but the optics look terrible. How do you sell your fanbase on trading your star player... for your own picks back?



It’s actually not that bad.

Consider this package:

Devin Vassell
Tre Jones
‘25 better of ATL/SAS pick
‘26 swap rights to SAS (ie reverse the current swap rights)
‘26 CHI pick (top 8 protected)



Vassell would fit right into the starting lineup. Tre becomes backup PG, and he also expires so ATL has the option to resign him or let him walk if they are tax conscious. Bufkin should be ready by year 3 to be the backup PG.


Dejounte / Tre / Bufkin
Vassell / Bogdanovic
DeAndre / AJ
JJohnson / Saddiq
Capela / Okongwu



They would have tons of picks. May become one of the top 3-4 “pick rich” teams in the league.
How does "tons of picks" equal first in each year except 27, which they would still owe to the Spurs?

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app



My bad, I meant to add the ‘27 pick back.

It’s not just the quantity of the picks. They would also have juicy picks by having the picks be the better of SAS/ATL.

I get that it’s not the largest pick stash though. But we have to forget about the previous trades and look forward. They can get 3 picks + a swap right with SAS. And also quality players in Vassell/Jones, at positions of need.

Short of trading for a superstar, this is as good as it gets.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:46 pm
by ConSarnit
MessiahUjiri wrote:
dms269 wrote:
MessiahUjiri wrote:

It’s actually not that bad.

Consider this package:

Devin Vassell
Tre Jones
‘25 better of ATL/SAS pick
‘26 swap rights to SAS (ie reverse the current swap rights)
‘26 CHI pick (top 8 protected)



Vassell would fit right into the starting lineup. Tre becomes backup PG, and he also expires so ATL has the option to resign him or let him walk if they are tax conscious. Bufkin should be ready by year 3 to be the backup PG.


Dejounte / Tre / Bufkin
Vassell / Bogdanovic
DeAndre / AJ
JJohnson / Saddiq
Capela / Okongwu



They would have tons of picks. May become one of the top 3-4 “pick rich” teams in the league.
How does "tons of picks" equal first in each year except 27, which they would still owe to the Spurs?

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app



My bad, I meant to add the ‘27 pick back.

It’s not just the quantity of the picks. They would also have juicy picks by having the picks be the better of SAS/ATL.

I get that it’s not the largest pick stash though. But we have to forget about the previous trades and look forward. They can get 3 picks + a swap right with SAS. And also quality players in Vassell/Jones, at positions of need.

Short of trading for a superstar, this is as good as it gets.


Define "juicy"

2025 1st: so they'd have their own (probably late lotto next year) or SAS pick (probably late lotto or worst considering they'd have 2nd year Wemby + Trae). So let's say it's the 13th pick in 2025

2026 Swap: 3rd year Victor + Trae is probably a 50 win team. So ATL likely doesn't swap and their own team stays in that late lotto range.

So ATL ends up with:

2025: late lotto pick (own)
2026: late lotto pick (own)
2027: their own pick (tbd on which direction they choose)

Swap rights with SAS are about to mean very little. Once these generational guys hit their 2nd year it's pretty much 50 wins from there on out. The value might not be terrible (Vassell + couple of lotto picks) but it's incredibly hard to sell your fanbase on that when those lotto picks are just your own picks that you sent out in a previous trade. I don't know how they become a top 3-4 pick rich team when they literally only have their own picks + 1 extra 1st from SAC. From 2025 onward they would have zero surplus draft assets outside of their own picks (ATL currently owes 5 2nds but are owed 5 different 2nds so that's a wash).

From 2025-29 ATL would have 5 1sts. Here are what other teams have:

CHA: 7
BKN: 6
HOU: 6
NOP: 6
NYK: up to 8
OKC: 9
ORL: 6
SAS: 6-7 (even after ATL trade)
UTH: 9

That's 9 teams that would project to have more 1sts than ATL.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Thu Feb 29, 2024 1:57 am
by MessiahUjiri
ConSarnit wrote:
MessiahUjiri wrote:
dms269 wrote:How does "tons of picks" equal first in each year except 27, which they would still owe to the Spurs?

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app



My bad, I meant to add the ‘27 pick back.

It’s not just the quantity of the picks. They would also have juicy picks by having the picks be the better of SAS/ATL.

I get that it’s not the largest pick stash though. But we have to forget about the previous trades and look forward. They can get 3 picks + a swap right with SAS. And also quality players in Vassell/Jones, at positions of need.

Short of trading for a superstar, this is as good as it gets.


Define "juicy"

2025 1st: so they'd have their own (probably late lotto next year) or SAS pick (probably late lotto or worst considering they'd have 2nd year Wemby + Trae). So let's say it's the 13th pick in 2025

2026 Swap: 3rd year Victor + Trae is probably a 50 win team. So ATL likely doesn't swap and their own team stays in that late lotto range.

So ATL ends up with:

2025: late lotto pick (own)
2026: late lotto pick (own)
2027: their own pick (tbd on which direction they choose)

Swap rights with SAS are about to mean very little. Once these generational guys hit their 2nd year it's pretty much 50 wins from there on out. The value might not be terrible (Vassell + couple of lotto picks) but it's incredibly hard to sell your fanbase on that when those lotto picks are just your own picks that you sent out in a previous trade. I don't know how they become a top 3-4 pick rich team when they literally only have their own picks + 1 extra 1st from SAC. From 2025 onward they would have zero surplus draft assets outside of their own picks (ATL currently owes 5 2nds but are owed 5 different 2nds so that's a wash).

From 2025-29 ATL would have 5 1sts. Here are what other teams have:

CHA: 7
BKN: 6
HOU: 6
NOP: 6
NYK: up to 8
OKC: 9
ORL: 6
SAS: 6-7 (even after ATL trade)
UTH: 9

That's 9 teams that would project to have more 1sts than ATL.

You’re right. Good analysis.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:55 am
by NYG
ConSarnit wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:
DowJones wrote:I like Young to San Antonio for their picks back plus their first this year provided it isn't 1st or 2nd. I would love to see Young/Wemby for the next 10 years.


I think the only way they trade Young is if the Spurs want him and are willing to trade the Hawks picks and Swap back to them as part of a package.


I think that type of package makes the deal very difficult from ATL's side. I'm not saying the value is bad but the optics look terrible. How do you sell your fanbase on trading your star player... for your own picks back?


Because it'll come with Vassell or Keldon, a top 5 '24 Spurs 1st and possibly(likely?) another pick

That would be...

Vassell or Keldon, 3rd Overall, Future Spurs 1st, 2 Hawks 1sts and a swap return for Trae

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Thu Feb 29, 2024 4:20 pm
by ConSarnit
NYG wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:
I think the only way they trade Young is if the Spurs want him and are willing to trade the Hawks picks and Swap back to them as part of a package.


I think that type of package makes the deal very difficult from ATL's side. I'm not saying the value is bad but the optics look terrible. How do you sell your fanbase on trading your star player... for your own picks back?


Because it'll come with Vassell or Keldon, a top 5 '24 Spurs 1st and possibly(likely?) another pick

That would be...

Vassell or Keldon, 3rd Overall, Future Spurs 1st, 2 Hawks 1sts and a swap return for Trae


If the Spurs are putting Vassell and #3 in the trade you have to think that reduces the back end of their offer. Vassell would probably be the best guy moved in one of these star packages (maybe tied with Bridges, at least in terms of production at the time of the trade). The #3 pick would be the best draft asset moved (by far) in one of these star trades. Can Trae really fetch:

#3
Vassell (23 year old averaging 19/4/4 on 58 TS%)
3 1sts
1 swap

That looks like it's the best package EVER offered for a star. Other packages might look better in hindsight given what Lauri and Bridges became but this looks like the best package "at time of trade".

If I'm the Spurs I am not giving up all of that. I am keeping Vassell or I am removing 2 1sts on the backend. That full Spurs package looks like the "Luka wants out of Dallas" package.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Fri Mar 1, 2024 4:39 am
by NYG
ConSarnit wrote:
NYG wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
I think that type of package makes the deal very difficult from ATL's side. I'm not saying the value is bad but the optics look terrible. How do you sell your fanbase on trading your star player... for your own picks back?


Because it'll come with Vassell or Keldon, a top 5 '24 Spurs 1st and possibly(likely?) another pick

That would be...

Vassell or Keldon, 3rd Overall, Future Spurs 1st, 2 Hawks 1sts and a swap return for Trae


If the Spurs are putting Vassell and #3 in the trade you have to think that reduces the back end of their offer. Vassell would probably be the best guy moved in one of these star packages (maybe tied with Bridges, at least in terms of production at the time of the trade). The #3 pick would be the best draft asset moved (by far) in one of these star trades. Can Trae really fetch:

#3
Vassell (23 year old averaging 19/4/4 on 58 TS%)
3 1sts
1 swap

That looks like it's the best package EVER offered for a star. Other packages might look better in hindsight given what Lauri and Bridges became but this looks like the best package "at time of trade".

If I'm the Spurs I am not giving up all of that. I am keeping Vassell or I am removing 2 1sts on the backend. That full Spurs package looks like the "Luka wants out of Dallas" package.


So make it... Keldon, #3, the 2 Hawks 1sts returned and the swap returned

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Fri Mar 1, 2024 5:43 pm
by basketballwacko2
NYG wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
NYG wrote:
Because it'll come with Vassell or Keldon, a top 5 '24 Spurs 1st and possibly(likely?) another pick

That would be...

Vassell or Keldon, 3rd Overall, Future Spurs 1st, 2 Hawks 1sts and a swap return for Trae


If the Spurs are putting Vassell and #3 in the trade you have to think that reduces the back end of their offer. Vassell would probably be the best guy moved in one of these star packages (maybe tied with Bridges, at least in terms of production at the time of the trade). The #3 pick would be the best draft asset moved (by far) in one of these star trades. Can Trae really fetch:

#3
Vassell (23 year old averaging 19/4/4 on 58 TS%)
3 1sts
1 swap

That looks like it's the best package EVER offered for a star. Other packages might look better in hindsight given what Lauri and Bridges became but this looks like the best package "at time of trade".

If I'm the Spurs I am not giving up all of that. I am keeping Vassell or I am removing 2 1sts on the backend. That full Spurs package looks like the "Luka wants out of Dallas" package.


So make it... Keldon, #3, the 2 Hawks 1sts returned and the swap returned



I think it's pretty heavy ask to try and get the Spurs 2024 #1 and the Hawks picks returned. SA would have to be really want in Trae Young. So something like Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones plus the Hawks picks and swap and the Chacago , and maybe the Hornets to
'

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Fri Mar 1, 2024 7:50 pm
by Wolveswin
To Hawks: Johnson + Jones + Hawks 1sts/Swap Return + 24 Raps/Kings Swap + 25 Bulls 1st

To Wolves: #3 (Topic) + Collins + Sochan + 25 Spurs 1st

To Spurs: Trae + Towns + Hunter

Wemby
Towns
Hunter
Vassell
Trae

Plus Spurs would have own 27/29/31, extra swaps, and still some youth for next all-in trade.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Mon Mar 4, 2024 7:54 pm
by JKiddy
TheBrooklynKidd wrote:Brooklyn goes all in.

Cam Thomas
Ben Simmons expiring
Suns ‘25 1st
Suns ‘27
Suns ‘29
Mavs ‘29
76ers ‘27

Maybe more if needed.


This is INSANE.
This is WAY TOO MUCH.
This would NEVER HAPPEN.

Remove the Suns '29 and Mavs '29 and maybe this would not be that insane.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:21 pm
by NYG
Part of me wonders if Atlanta is just better off rebuilding? I don't see anyone realistic that upgrades their chances to win and I don't see Trae being content feeling like he can't win. If they went rebuild between Trae and Dejounte, they could get a nice haul.

Let's say the rebuilding teams this off-season are Chicago, Toronto and Washington... which players would be upgrades from those teams for Atlanta?

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Mon Apr 8, 2024 12:39 am
by jayjaysee
NYG wrote:Part of me wonders if Atlanta is just better off rebuilding? I don't see anyone realistic that upgrades their chances to win and I don't see Trae being content feeling like he can't win. If they went rebuild between Trae and Dejounte, they could get a nice haul.

Let's say the rebuilding teams this off-season are Chicago, Toronto and Washington... which players would be upgrades from those teams for Atlanta?


Atlanta can add Lauri or Bridges without trading Trae, Jalen, or Murray.. If you trade Murray and your picks, you can land a better star..

Atlanta should definitely explore ways to win a title before ways to get to tank for 5 years.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Mon Apr 8, 2024 12:48 am
by NYG
jayjaysee wrote:
NYG wrote:Part of me wonders if Atlanta is just better off rebuilding? I don't see anyone realistic that upgrades their chances to win and I don't see Trae being content feeling like he can't win. If they went rebuild between Trae and Dejounte, they could get a nice haul.

Let's say the rebuilding teams this off-season are Chicago, Toronto and Washington... which players would be upgrades from those teams for Atlanta?


Atlanta can add Lauri or Bridges without trading Trae, Jalen, or Murray.. If you trade Murray and your picks, you can land a better star..

Atlanta should definitely explore ways to win a title before ways to get to tank for 5 years.


I think Utah will extend Lauri and Brooklyn will build around Bridges though even if they should trade him. Which player better than Murray is on a team that isn't trying to contend that would take Murray and picks to downgrade?

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Mon Apr 8, 2024 12:53 am
by jayjaysee
NYG wrote:
jayjaysee wrote:
NYG wrote:Part of me wonders if Atlanta is just better off rebuilding? I don't see anyone realistic that upgrades their chances to win and I don't see Trae being content feeling like he can't win. If they went rebuild between Trae and Dejounte, they could get a nice haul.

Let's say the rebuilding teams this off-season are Chicago, Toronto and Washington... which players would be upgrades from those teams for Atlanta?


Atlanta can add Lauri or Bridges without trading Trae, Jalen, or Murray.. If you trade Murray and your picks, you can land a better star..

Atlanta should definitely explore ways to win a title before ways to get to tank for 5 years.


I think Utah will extend Lauri and Brooklyn will build around Bridges though even if they should trade him. Which player better than Murray is on a team that isn't trying to contend that would take Murray and picks to downgrade?


I have no specific trade, but I would assume it involves a third team getting Atlanta’s picks and that team splitting their star into Murray and another strong starter / borderline star. Or it’s all picks based and Murray is going to a third team for 2~ additional firsts to that team. I doubt many teams trade a star for Murray and 2-4 firsts. But once’s it’s 4-6 firsts and a Griffin/Kobe/OO.. etc.. you start seeing a superstar?

What Utah or Brooklyn actually ends up doing, I’m not sure either. Either could be the team that trades two firsts for Murray. Just was examples.

Re: Trae Young moves

Posted: Mon Apr 8, 2024 12:56 am
by babyjax13
jayjaysee wrote:
NYG wrote:Part of me wonders if Atlanta is just better off rebuilding? I don't see anyone realistic that upgrades their chances to win and I don't see Trae being content feeling like he can't win. If they went rebuild between Trae and Dejounte, they could get a nice haul.

Let's say the rebuilding teams this off-season are Chicago, Toronto and Washington... which players would be upgrades from those teams for Atlanta?


Atlanta can add Lauri or Bridges without trading Trae, Jalen, or Murray.. If you trade Murray and your picks, you can land a better star..

Atlanta should definitely explore ways to win a title before ways to get to tank for 5 years.

I can't imagine an acceptable direct trade between Atlanta and Utah for Lauri that doesn't include either Johnson or Trae. Their only hope is getting assets by trading their other guys, but I don't think many of them have a ton of value.