Thoughts in General, Random Rumors and Musings, Blah Blah 14.0 Eddie Najera Edicion

[Texas Chuck]

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Would a team swap expirings for Huerter without incentive? He's quite bad and paid a lot. THJ is a similar caliber player with more availability, in general, and with one less year.

I think a team still might? I'd swap Timmy for him with no incentive I think if Dallas couldn't find a better deal using his matching.. No real drop off as a bench shooter and it keeps the contract slot alive.

[NYG]

If the following things happen...

1. Cavs lose to Celtics
2. Mitchell doesn't sign an extension
3. Mitchell gives out vibes he won't be re-signing

If the Cavs were to trade Mitchell, would they end up just rebuilding or would they try to pull off a win now type of return for Mitchell?

[giberish]

If the following things happen...

1. Cavs lose to Celtics
2. Mitchell doesn't sign an extension
3. Mitchell gives out vibes he won't be re-signing

If the Cavs were to trade Mitchell, would they end up just rebuilding or would they try to pull off a win now type of return for Mitchell?

With Garland and Mobley in-house I'm' sure they'd expect to stay in the playoffs. Perhaps taking a somewhat longer term outlook compared to extreme win right now teams though. More like playoffs now, contend in 3-5 years. This may include getting some of the value in future 1sts that won't be on-court useful in that time-frame but could be used in win-now trades a year or two down the line. They'd want something that could help immediately to stay in the playoffs along with the future value though.

[Texas Chuck]

I just want to say that in 5 years I am prepared to eat all the crow if there are no difference makers in this draft. But man if there are everyone else on this board needs to be in line eating theirs.

The groupthink regarding this draft.....man.

[Texas Chuck]

I'm to the point where I want to offer future Mavs 2nd for lottery picks. Because as I hear those are just 2 years of bad contracts before the 3rd year option gets declined, so this is good value for those lottery teams.....

[dms269]

I really want to do a Capela/Griffin/#1 for Markannen/Kessler thread with a Murray for Jones/Nance/#21 follow up, but I'll just get crotched kicked by a minimum of two franchises so getting it out of my system here.

But I like a Hawks team that is:

Kessler/OO/Nance
Markannen/Hunter/Nance
Johnson/Hunter
Jones/Bogdan/Bufkin
Trae/vet PG/rookie PG (I like Devin Carter for them)

Nice core all in their primes. Obviously you have to have talked to Lauri and have his buy in on re-signing.

Utah sells high on two sacred cows. Pels get the more dynamic guard they need and it frees up a CJ deal that clears up payroll for a center.

The crotch kicking likely isn't going to come from Atlanta.

[dms269]

I'm to the point where I want to offer future Mavs 2nd for lottery picks. Because as I hear those are just 2 years of bad contracts before the 3rd year option gets declined, so this is good value for those lottery teams.....

Might as well. I mean if #1 in this draft is basically 8-10 in a normal draft, then I think you could offer a a 2nd to get you to around 20 easily.

[Texas Chuck]

I'm to the point where I want to offer future Mavs 2nd for lottery picks. Because as I hear those are just 2 years of bad contracts before the 3rd year option gets declined, so this is good value for those lottery teams.....

Might as well. I mean if #1 in this draft is basically 8-10 in a normal draft, then I think you could offer a a 2nd to get you to around 20 easily.

Yeah its crazy to me. I mean even if one really believes there is no top end talent at all in this draft(IDK, but my guess there are studs in this draft, just not the no-brainer Wemby/AD/Zion type) wouldn't having your choice of all of them be worth a lot more than having to watch 8 or 9 guys come off the board?

On that alone it makes that statement silly. I also think people put way too much stock in the ability of draft podcasters to analyze NBA talent. Because if one of these guys was correctly identifying the best players year in and year out, a team would have already hired them.

[Devilanche]

I'm to the point where I want to offer future Mavs 2nd for lottery picks. Because as I hear those are just 2 years of bad contracts before the 3rd year option gets declined, so this is good value for those lottery teams.....

Presti already there outbidding you.

If you offer one future second for the lotto pick, Presti is offering 2 future seconds for the same lotto pick.

Edit - think I mentioned these before but worth repeating.
1) discount all you want but say beyond pick 20 or 25 onwards there should be minimal difference between that pick this year and the same pick next year.
2) this year pick 28 should have higher value than next year pick 28 cause you are able to get the help immediately , unless you are OKC and you need more space than help.
3) late first are always more valuable than early seconds as you get the player under contract for longer AND you get to choose between more players
4) if your scouts are saying there’s no role player worth drafting beyond the 20s then you need new scouts.

[Texas Chuck]

I'm to the point where I want to offer future Mavs 2nd for lottery picks. Because as I hear those are just 2 years of bad contracts before the 3rd year option gets declined, so this is good value for those lottery teams.....

Presti already there outbidding you.

If you offer one future second for the lotto pick, Presti is offering 2 future seconds for the same lotto pick.

Well that sucks.

I was counting on Presti trying to roll his pick back in time again.

[Devilanche]

I'm to the point where I want to offer future Mavs 2nd for lottery picks. Because as I hear those are just 2 years of bad contracts before the 3rd year option gets declined, so this is good value for those lottery teams.....

Presti already there outbidding you.

If you offer one future second for the lotto pick, Presti is offering 2 future seconds for the same lotto pick.

Well that sucks.

I was counting on Presti trying to roll his pick back in time again.

I edited some notes after you reply, in case some of those fallacy get repeated.

This is the draft to go in to not to sell out of. If it’s so cheap to buy the pick just trust you can find a specialist whether it’s an energy big , a 3 point shooter , a pesky defender or someone who can get you buckets but is undersized.

Presti really need Tristan da Silva. Hope no more projects.

[Devilanche]

I'm to the point where I want to offer future Mavs 2nd for lottery picks. Because as I hear those are just 2 years of bad contracts before the 3rd year option gets declined, so this is good value for those lottery teams.....

Might as well. I mean if #1 in this draft is basically 8-10 in a normal draft, then I think you could offer a a 2nd to get you to around 20 easily.

Think I read somewhere that pick 5 is worth pick 8-10 in a normal draft which is more reasonable.

Pick 1 by that comparison should be worth pick 3-4 in these recent seasons.

Comparison in terms of upside I believe.

[SkyHook]

I don't see any franchise level talent in this draft, but there's plenty of comparable talent as the draft goes on. I might prefer the second-ten picks this year to the ones picked last year; certainly over the odd numbered ones.

[jayjaysee]

Anyone know Kuzma’s actual incentives?

The trade kicker and 3 million incentives tied to “team performance” could actually change his bargain contract?

[Euphonetiks]

I have Jones worth more than Murray especially for a team wtih 2 defensive sieves in Zion and Ingram

Eh contracts tend to do the speaking and defensive guards are just never super valuable in trade. Maybe 21 is greedy, IDK. And I love Herb Jones, but I imagine his value isn't higher than Murray's around the league.

But yeah that is part of why I just abandoned the idea even though I like it. I could be way off on value.

Herb signed a below market extension for security purposes since he only made $3.5M on his rookie deal. On the free market, his contract would've been much higher. I think in terms of value between Herb/Dejounte, it depends on team composition. I think many teams would prefer Herb's complementary, additive 3&D game over Murray who is at best with the ball in his hands. This is particularly true since Herb only costs $42M over the next 3 seasons whereas Murray costs $82M during that time.

Lakers, Sixers, Pistons, Jazz, Heat, Wizards, Bulls I think would would prefer DJM.

For the Pelicans, we could have already had DJM at the deadline if we were willing to trade Herb for him. Herb is extremely important to having a top 10 defense with Zion, CJ, Ingram, and Jonas on the floor.

[Scoot McGroot]

Anyone know Kuzma’s actual incentives?

The trade kicker and 3 million incentives tied to “team performance” could actually change his bargain contract?

Dunno. There's also the 15% trade kicker, which Washington will pay the actual cash payment on, but teams will have to account for that pro-rated over the rest of his contract with a higher cap/tax number.

[jayjaysee]

Anyone know Kuzma’s actual incentives?

The trade kicker and 3 million incentives tied to “team performance” could actually change his bargain contract?

Dunno. There's also the 15% trade kicker, which Washington will pay the actual cash payment on, but teams will have to account for that pro-rated over the rest of his contract with a higher cap/tax number.

Yeah, a lot of the arguments for his value are based on his contract, but he if gets traded to a good team it appears he likely makes the initial reported contract not the one that Washington will pay.

Just was a random idea.

[165bows]

If the following things happen...

1. Cavs lose to Celtics
2. Mitchell doesn't sign an extension
3. Mitchell gives out vibes he won't be re-signing

If the Cavs were to trade Mitchell, would they end up just rebuilding or would they try to pull off a win now type of return for Mitchell?

With Garland and Mobley in-house I'm' sure they'd expect to stay in the playoffs. Perhaps taking a somewhat longer term outlook compared to extreme win right now teams though. More like playoffs now, contend in 3-5 years. This may include getting some of the value in future 1sts that won't be on-court useful in that time-frame but could be used in win-now trades a year or two down the line. They'd want something that could help immediately to stay in the playoffs along with the future value though.

Right this makes sense and I agree with that line of thinking.

It does create this interesting dynamic - if Brooklyn is a leading candidate, are they happy doing a three team deal with some younger win now assets to CLE - or is Brooklyn looking to bring in two higher end players when they trade their assets? Ie, Ingram/Murray etc., in other words would Brooklyn be looking for an additional player similar to the caliber of player Cleveland may want back.

I’m not sure but it seems feasible - and would create this weird dynamic where one team is competing for a trade with a team they are trying to make a different simultaneous trade with, if that makes sense.

[Scoot McGroot]

Anyone know Kuzma’s actual incentives?

The trade kicker and 3 million incentives tied to “team performance” could actually change his bargain contract?

Dunno. There's also the 15% trade kicker, which Washington will pay the actual cash payment on, but teams will have to account for that pro-rated over the rest of his contract with a higher cap/tax number.

Yeah, a lot of the arguments for his value are based on his contract, but he if gets traded to a good team it appears he likely makes the initial reported contract not the one that Washington will pay.

Just was a random idea.

No, it's a really good point. And if he's traded to a playoff team, and the bonuses are as simple as "make the playoffs", then yeah, he's a lot more expensive going forward, and loses a bit of that trade value he has.

[NotACat]

I just want to say that in 5 years I am prepared to eat all the crow if there are no difference makers in this draft. But man if there are everyone else on this board needs to be in line eating theirs.

The groupthink regarding this draft.....man.

I think Reed Sheppard is going to be a real difference maker. I really hope Orlando trades up to get him.