RealGM

Pistons are hoping this happens. They got the most cap space. But they obviously aren’t looking at ring chasers, but instead cap casualties. KAT if Minny loses in the first round, for example.

Worst case for each team... First Round sweep or Play-In exit...

Celtics - Probably just run it back
Bucks - Probably make small adjustments, maybe trade Middleton
Cavaliers - Maybe one of their guys like Mitchell asks out
Magic - Probably just run it back and add a guard
Knicks - Probably just run it back and get healthy
Pacers - Try to retain Siakam and maybe some small adjustments
Heat - Looking for ways to improve
76ers - Hope Embiid gets healthy and you can improve in free agency
Bulls - Probably just blow it up as much as possible
Hawks - This is interesting... would Trae ask out? Would Atlanta just decide to rebuild?

T'Wolves - Probably give it one more run before doing anything major
Nuggets - Probably just run it back
Thunder - Looking for ways to improve using their cap space
Clippers - Painted into a corner of this roster, probably paying George and Harden what they want
Mavericks - Kyrie is a wildcard, but otherwise I just them mostly running it back
Suns - Durant could become unhappy and want back East
Pelicans - Make small adjustments, but otherwise running it back
Kings - Looking to improve and continue to develop Keegan
Lakers - I could see the argument for LeBron to want out, but I think he meant it when he said he wants to stay
Warriors - This is the end of Kobe in LA for Steph/Klay/Draymond. Probably just letting that core ride it out before anything major is done.

So really, even in the worst case... I see maybeeee Kyrie or LeBron asking out or the Clippers break it up, but not likely. The 3 most likely candidates for me are Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Durant and Trae Young

theBigLip wrote:Pistons are hoping this happens. They got the most cap space. But they obviously aren’t looking at ring chasers, but instead cap casualties. KAT if Minny loses in the first round, for example.

I can't recall a player of KAT's caliber being traded to save money. Surely, if the T'Wolves were in saving money mode though, they could dump other, less talented players first.

LarsV8 wrote:I always look for good players on teams that are trending in the wrong direction, with no real hope of improvement.

Hawks guys seem like candidates.
Bridges seems like a candidate.
Possibly Embiid, but maybe if they strike out in off season plans.
Suns could be interesting.

I think Lebron and Steph will be legacy guys who wouldnt, just cause they won titles with their current teams.

I would add Donovan Mitchell too.

Not high level stars nor much of a playoff/play in threat, I can see Demar DeRozan getting a better offer from either a team with a young roster looking for a leader or an early exit playoff team looking for scoring. I think Lavine ends up with a semi tanking team or somewhere in the process of rebuilding like DET, CHA, ORL who wants to fill in some points while they bring their kids along slowly. If somebody can overlook that Alex Caruso is almost constantly injured I think a team that disappoints in the playoffs would want to add defense and his now improved 3 point shot and give up a late 1st and early 2nd to get him for 65+ games.

The wild card deal would be Nikola Vucevic. If he doesn't see the Bulls making moves to get a genuine PF next to him, I think he gets fed up playing with 4 guards and asks out. Not a bad contract, very healthy with CHI, can still score inside, having a rare bad year shooting the 3, he could help a team with a tall skinny kid at the 5.

jbk1234 wrote:

Godaddycurse wrote:i think more teams could bail on their stars than their stars asking out

If the Celtics fall short, I could definitely see them *taking calls* on Brown.

I think a Brown of Mitchell trade makes a ton of sense - although it's rare to see a star for star type of trade.

From Boston's perspective, they add a guy who is better at creating his own offense and get off having to pay two supermax deals. Additionally - Mitchell/Holiday (and even White) is a great backcourt pairing as your pairing an undersized, ball dominant SG with an bigger SG who can play off ball.

From Cleveland's perspective, they get a guy under team control for the next 5 seasons, with his supermax deal running through the 4 years Mobley is on a rookie max deal (potentially), which blends both deals to an average max level. Additionally, his size/skill set might be a better fit long term with Garland. I do have some concerns about a Brown/Mobley/Allen lineup from a spacing perspective - but that comes down to a bigger issue with Mobley/Allen long term.

This just feels like it makes a ton of sense.

KD to Philly
Trae to the Spurs
Dejounte to the Lakers
Mitchell to the Nets

mg wrote:Trevor does a great job covering the Lakers on his yt channel but he doesn't have any inside info.

My hunch is Lebron was telling the truth when he said he has every intention of finishing his career with the Lakers. His "not much time left" quote was literally telling their FO to make any and all moves necessary this offseason to build a contending team in his final seasons. They will have multiple picks to trade at the draft. This might be the summer to trade AD. I think everything will be on the table for the Lakers.

You want to build a contender around LeBron, but you want to trade Anthony Davis. Those two don't make sense.

hugepatsfan wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:

Godaddycurse wrote:i think more teams could bail on their stars than their stars asking out

If the Celtics fall short, I could definitely see them *taking calls* on Brown.

This is a popular narrative but not sure I see it. BOS's shortcomings have been ball handling in crunch time situations. Brown is obviously a liability there, but their current lineup is:

PG Holiday
SG White
SF Brown
PF Tatum
C Porzingis

If they try to address ballhandling in crunch time situations, swapping Brown for another SF doesn't seem practical. That's just not a position that typically can address that need. You'd likely need to be trading him for a guard to do that. I don't see how they're going to address that need by trading brown without major changes elsewhere too.

Considering the 3-team thing...I think Ingram could be close to the protégé they are looking for, he is a winger and a very good playmaker

Ingram/OO+Hawks FRP BOSTON
Murray/Griffin NOP
Brown HAWKS

I don't think the playoffs are going to be a huge factor in player movement.

I do think the 2nd apron will be a large factor in player movement.

If the Bucks get bounced in the 1st, things could get dicey. Dame seemingly doesn't want to be there and his play has declined since the move. Giannis will give it another season, but if things don't turn things around, I could see him asking for a move since the Bucks don't have many more levers to pull to keep him happy.

the_process wrote:I don't think the playoffs are going to be a huge factor in player movement.

I do think the 2nd apron will be a large factor in player movement.

I think it’s a combination. Agreed, 2nd apron will definitely have an impact. But the impact will be based on how teams do in the playoffs. Minnesota, Clippers, Suns - spending lots of money, teams are capped out, and now what happens if they lose in the first round? They are going to have to move a big salary to have any flexibility. It’s going to be interesting to see this play out.

hugepatsfan wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:

Godaddycurse wrote:i think more teams could bail on their stars than their stars asking out

If the Celtics fall short, I could definitely see them *taking calls* on Brown.

This is a popular narrative but not sure I see it. BOS's shortcomings have been ball handling in crunch time situations. Brown is obviously a liability there, but their current lineup is:

PG Holiday
SG White
SF Brown
PF Tatum
C Porzingis

If they try to address ballhandling in crunch time situations, swapping Brown for another SF doesn't seem practical. That's just not a position that typically can address that need. You'd likely need to be trading him for a guard to do that. I don't see how they're going to address that need by trading brown without major changes elsewhere too.

I don't see it being likely at all, but if Brown is moved, one of the very few things that make sense to me is Brown to LAL, all the Lakers picks and assets out to Utah (and Boston), and Markkanen, Sexton and whatever smaller pieces to Boston.

theBigLip wrote:

the_process wrote:I don't think the playoffs are going to be a huge factor in player movement.

I do think the 2nd apron will be a large factor in player movement.

I think it’s a combination. Agreed, 2nd apron will definitely have an impact. But the impact will be based on how teams do in the playoffs. Minnesota, Clippers, Suns - spending lots of money, teams are capped out, and now what happens if they lose in the first round? They are going to have to move a big salary to have any flexibility. It’s going to be interesting to see this play out.

You're right inasmuch as the exception to the rule is likely to be a deep pocketed owner whose team makes the Finals.

However as the general rule going forward I think that teams are going to try and avoid being over the 2nd apron regardless. Being over the 2nd apron is too punitive now to be an extended option.

I know everyone just assumes their owners are gonna pay to keep it together. I would think that's going to be a rare exception, but we'll see how teams choose to manage it.

the_process wrote:

theBigLip wrote:

the_process wrote:I don't think the playoffs are going to be a huge factor in player movement.

I do think the 2nd apron will be a large factor in player movement.

I think it’s a combination. Agreed, 2nd apron will definitely have an impact. But the impact will be based on how teams do in the playoffs. Minnesota, Clippers, Suns - spending lots of money, teams are capped out, and now what happens if they lose in the first round? They are going to have to move a big salary to have any flexibility. It’s going to be interesting to see this play out.

You're right inasmuch as the exception to the rule is likely to be a deep pocketed owner whose team makes the Finals.

However as the general rule going forward I think that teams are going to try and avoid being over the 2nd apron regardless. Being over the 2nd apron is too punitive now to be an extended option.

I know everyone just assumes their owners are gonna pay to keep it together. I would think that's going to be a rare exception, but we'll see how teams choose to manage it.

IMO the majority of owners/groups weren’t willing to go 17.5 million over the tax anyways.

The room was thin before the added penalties and I think those that were willing would still be willing.

Mike lorenzo wrote:

hugepatsfan wrote:

jbk1234 wrote:
If the Celtics fall short, I could definitely see them *taking calls* on Brown.

This is a popular narrative but not sure I see it. BOS's shortcomings have been ball handling in crunch time situations. Brown is obviously a liability there, but their current lineup is:

PG Holiday
SG White
SF Brown
PF Tatum
C Porzingis

If they try to address ballhandling in crunch time situations, swapping Brown for another SF doesn't seem practical. That's just not a position that typically can address that need. You'd likely need to be trading him for a guard to do that. I don't see how they're going to address that need by trading brown without major changes elsewhere too.

Considering the 3-team thing...I think Ingram could be close to the protégé they are looking for, he is a winger and a very good playmaker

Ingram/OO+Hawks FRP BOSTON
Murray/Griffin NOP
Brown HAWKS

Seems like this deal doesn't have to include the Celtics at all.

Ingram ATLANTA
Murray/Griffin, 1st round pick NOP

For me its got to be Booker... The window if they get bounced in the first round is basically closed.

The Duncan and Hollinger podcast had Zach Lowe as a guest, and asked a similar question: stars that are least likely to be on the same roster [EDIT after off-season] in 2025.

Their top four were: Trae Young, Karl-Anthony Towns, Luca Doncic, Donovan Mitchell.

shrink wrote:The Duncan and Hollinger podcast had Zach Lowe as a guest, and asked a similar question: stars that are least likely to be on the same roster in 2025.

Their top four were: Trae Young, Karl-Anthony Towns, Luca Doncic, Donovan Mitchell.

Just to clarify... it was the start of the 2025-26 on that podcast. I only see Mitchell being dealt this off-season of those 4.

I could see Trae, but Hawks fans are adamant that isn't yet.

shrink wrote:The Duncan and Hollinger podcast had Zach Lowe as a guest, and asked a similar question: stars that are least likely to be on the same roster in 2025.

Their top four were: Trae Young, Karl-Anthony Towns, Luca Doncic, Donovan Mitchell.

Young is pretty obvious. The Hawks have underperformed and haven't won a playoff series in 3 years. KAT I only see if the Wolves have a very disappointing playoff exit. Wolves are probably going to be the 1st seed for the first time in 20 years and IDK if they want to shake it up that much. Luka is not going to happen as the Mavs have exceeded expectations. Donovan Mitchell I also don't really see. Think a roster shakeup is coming if the Cavs have another first round exit though