The Embiid Sweepstakes

[wegotthabeet]

Embiid won’t ask out.

Although on second thought now that he is American he might.

[Wolveswin]

So 1 year left on a star is a negative because he's a rental, 4+ years is a negative because of the long-term financial commitment and now 2 years is a negative because ???

It actually seems like the sweet spot, doesn't it?

Huh?

When a star player is on his last year, his value is depressed because he's a rental.

When a star player has 4-5 years left, his value is said to be depressed because of the long term financial commitment.

And now you're claiming that 2 years remaining is also a negative - which seems like a stretch to me.

Your premise is false. Not sure what star who has 4-5 years is “negative.”

As for Embiid, yes, if you are OKC or Memphis or any outside the box location, 2 years of Embiid, who’s value will dictate mortgaging the farm, 100% has to be taken into consideration.

[the_process]

Always cracks me up when guys are off the table for an MVP.

Ok. Moving on.

Is it that straightforward though? We're talking about a 30 year old MVP with a significant injury history.

Who is only locked in for 2x more years. Salary, years, age and injury history all have to be considered when trading the farm for Embiid.

While in theory you are correct, have we ever seen someone turn down their max PO? It's a 59M option, Joel isn't turning that down. So in reality, you have three years left of the big fella. You could also probably get him to exercise it early as part of the deal if preferred.

[Wolveswin]

Is it that straightforward though? We're talking about a 30 year old MVP with a significant injury history.

Who is only locked in for 2x more years. Salary, years, age and injury history all have to be considered when trading the farm for Embiid.

While in theory you are correct, have we ever seen someone turn down their max PO? It's a 59M option, Joel isn't turning that down. So in reality, you have three years left of the big fella. You could also probably get him to exercise it early as part of the deal if preferred.

No doubt Embiid may accept. Or decline and renegotiate. IF Embiid chooses, his choice, and loves where he was traded to. True Player control. Point is made above. Again, locations outside the box in the mold of OKC or Memphis have to consider Embiid controls destiny and if they mortgage the farm, Embiid determines if said team only gets 2x years for all their assets traded.

[jayjaysee]

Some arguments of Joel about to decline, then we jump to Joel might opt out of his 59 million dollar season.

So you either get an MVP leave player for two years who chases a deal starting at 60 million or you get a part-time MVP who opts in..

It’s definitely finger math, but I think Presti could actually renounce everyone to maximize cap space, lose some depth maybe but..

Giddey, Dieng, both 2024 firsts they have, and a handful of future firsts and make the top bid..

Joel/Chet/Jalen/SGA/Cason
Jaylin/Kenrich/Dort/Wiggins/Joe
And the room MLE.

Imagine having a top 2 record in the league, then trading your worst starter for an MVP. And still owning all of your own and probably some extra future first rounders. And not paying the tax for two seasons of it.

Silly the things Presti could do.

[Wolveswin]

Some arguments of Joel about to decline, then we jump to Joel might opt out of his 59 million dollar season.

I think it’s very HIGH odds he opts out of final season. Embiid isn’t immune to his own injury concerns. If Embiid likes where he is location wise (let’s make that assumption), Embiid offers an opt out for more years. That is the smart play for a player with injury history. I am not a mathematician, but 150M+ is more than 59M. Guaranteed and in the bank.

[Wolveswin]

Imagine having a top 2 record in the league, then trading your worst starter for an MVP. And still owning all of your own and probably some extra future first rounders. And not paying the tax for two seasons of it.

Silly the things Presti could do.

I don’t think Embiid is available for not one of Chet or Jalen, most likely Jalen traded by Presti. But to your last sentence…

It is amazing what Presti has done (the league is so thankful he missed on Sengun/2020 draft).

He is saving up for Doncic. I mean, I think he would trade for Embiid, but I think Presti wants a longer window than that. He has seemed to cherish the fact if he can keep his kids all this time, so he can have a top flight team for 8-12 years (or more if his future draft picks backfill for his stars as the age out in 10 years).

[jayjaysee]

Imagine having a top 2 record in the league, then trading your worst starter for an MVP. And still owning all of your own and probably some extra future first rounders. And not paying the tax for two seasons of it.

Silly the things Presti could do.

I don’t think Embiid is available for not one of Chet or Jalen, most likely Jalen traded by Presti. But to your last sentence…

It is amazing what Presti has done (the league is so thankful he missed on Sengun/2020 draft).

He is saving up for Doncic. I mean, I think he would trade for Embiid, but I think Presti wants a longer window than that. He has seemed to cherish the fact if he can keep his kids all this time, so he can have a top flight team for 8-12 years (or more if his future draft picks backfill for his stars as the age out in 10 years).

I don’t think he plans to trade for any star and will just build around this 60 win team he has and delay assets /randomly add a core piece in the lottery and continue this through a decade..

But..

Giddey, Dieng, two 2024 lottery picks, and 6 future firsts.

There’s only a few teams that can top that offer as is right?

That’s not involving any of OKC’s own future picks or the swaps they own on them…

So what team is forcing OKC to up their offer to include Chet or Jalen? I do think a normal team should give up either and add to them to get Joel. OKC just doesn’t need to do it to be the biggest offer.

[Wolveswin]

Imagine having a top 2 record in the league, then trading your worst starter for an MVP. And still owning all of your own and probably some extra future first rounders. And not paying the tax for two seasons of it.

Silly the things Presti could do.

I don’t think Embiid is available for not one of Chet or Jalen, most likely Jalen traded by Presti. But to your last sentence…

It is amazing what Presti has done (the league is so thankful he missed on Sengun/2020 draft).

He is saving up for Doncic. I mean, I think he would trade for Embiid, but I think Presti wants a longer window than that. He has seemed to cherish the fact if he can keep his kids all this time, so he can have a top flight team for 8-12 years (or more if his future draft picks backfill for his stars as the age out in 10 years).

I don’t think he plans to trade for any star and will just build around this 60 win team he has and delay assets /randomly add a core piece in the lottery and continue this through a decade..

But..

Giddey, Dieng, two 2024 lottery picks, and 6 future firsts.

There’s only a few teams that can top that offer as is right?

That’s not involving any of OKC’s own future picks or the swaps they own on them…

So what team is forcing OKC to up their offer to include Chet or Jalen? I do think a normal team should give up either and add to them to get Joel. OKC just doesn’t need to do it to be the biggest offer.

I think you can look through this thread and find better Embiid offers.

No doubt Presti has the most quantity to offer. If quantity wins the day, he is winner winner. When he pulls his best 3-4 current players out of any star deal, he isn’t top quality offer.

[GutUNC]

Huh?

When a star player is on his last year, his value is depressed because he's a rental.

When a star player has 4-5 years left, his value is said to be depressed because of the long term financial commitment.

And now you're claiming that 2 years remaining is also a negative - which seems like a stretch to me.

Your premise is false. Not sure what star who has 4-5 years is “negative.”

As for Embiid, yes, if you are OKC or Memphis or any outside the box location, 2 years of Embiid, who’s value will dictate mortgaging the farm, 100% has to be taken into consideration.

It may not be you personally, but I've absolutely seen that argument being made here, particularly with a player with an injury history like that of Embiid.

And to be clear, I wasn't referring to overall negative value, just that his value is seen as depressed because of the long term commitment.

[Wolveswin]

When a star player is on his last year, his value is depressed because he's a rental.

When a star player has 4-5 years left, his value is said to be depressed because of the long term financial commitment.

And now you're claiming that 2 years remaining is also a negative - which seems like a stretch to me.

Your premise is false. Not sure what star who has 4-5 years is “negative.”

As for Embiid, yes, if you are OKC or Memphis or any outside the box location, 2 years of Embiid, who’s value will dictate mortgaging the farm, 100% has to be taken into consideration.

It may not be you personally, but I've absolutely seen that argument being made here, particularly with a player with an injury history like that of Embiid.

And to be clear, I wasn't referring to overall negative value, just that his value is seen as depressed because of the long term commitment.

I think it all is variable on destination and player.

For Embiid, I think non-premium-destinations would prefer longer control, and not see that (if longer control) as depressed or negative value in any way. Maybe a destination like NY or Miami would see it depressed or negative. Not sure.

[jayjaysee]

I think you can look through this thread and find better Embiid offers.

No doubt Presti has the most quantity to offer. If quantity wins the day, he is winner winner. When he pulls his best 3-4 current players out of any star deal, he isn’t top quality offer.

Didn’t say they were off the table, just think OKC’s quantity offers has more quality than most teams quality offer? You have to outbid them to include those guys is all. And I don’t know if I see that.

Because Philly should really enter a quick tank if they trade Joel sadly. They shouldn’t try to make the playoffs the year after trading a HOF in his prime. I’d want the best youth possible and try to build for 2025 or future years.

I see a lot of offers getting shut down ITT by fan bases… I see a lot of ideas that aren’t allowed under the new CBA in this thread.

Cleveland and Memphis are interesting ideas that might rival the value?

But just feel like 2 good prospects, 2 lottery picks and 6-10 extra first round picks isn’t the normal “quantity” offer to be written off.

[gswhoops]

Warriors seem like a decent option here...somewhere Embiid would want to go, somewhere that won't really care about Embiid's long term injury risk if he can bring them a ring in the short term, and somewhere with some decent assets to play with.

CP3, Kuminga, Moody, Podz, 3(ish) 1sts (26, 28, 30 if 1-20), 4 swaps for Embiid

[the_process]

Some arguments of Joel about to decline, then we jump to Joel might opt out of his 59 million dollar season.

So you either get an MVP leave player for two years who chases a deal starting at 60 million or you get a part-time MVP who opts in..

It’s definitely finger math, but I think Presti could actually renounce everyone to maximize cap space, lose some depth maybe but..

Giddey, Dieng, both 2024 firsts they have, and a handful of future firsts and make the top bid..

Joel/Chet/Jalen/SGA/Cason
Jaylin/Kenrich/Dort/Wiggins/Joe
And the room MLE.

Imagine having a top 2 record in the league, then trading your worst starter for an MVP. And still owning all of your own and probably some extra future first rounders. And not paying the tax for two seasons of it.

Silly the things Presti could do.

The Sixers are going to want a player centric offer, not a pick centric offer.

Unless the Thunder are acquiring another big name player with their assets and sending that player with stuff for Embiid...
if Chet and Jalen are off the table, the Thunder are out.

[QMemphis]

Philly would want a young all star level player in return. Grizz would have to build a deal around Jaren and our 24 1st. OKC would have to build a deal around Chet and Houston/Utah 24 1st. All other offers are not serious.

[Wolveswin]

Philly would want a young all star level player in return. Grizz would have to build a deal around Jaren and our 24 1st. OKC would have to build a deal around Chet and Houston/Utah 24 1st. All other offers are not serious.

In reality if Embiid asks out, as this thread suggests, Embiid will have a very short list where he wants to go. Where he wants to be traded to. Then it comes down to offers those chosen teams can and will produce. If no team has an acceptable AD style offer available as did Lakers, 76ers then have to hope rouge teams (not on Embiid list) make offers…

…then we are back to do rouge teams think 2x years of team control are enough to mortgage the farm for Embiid? Or…

…do 76ers have another standoff on their hands? Because if Embiid’s chosen destinations don’t have the goods and rouge teams aren’t comfortable with 2x years team control, it would get ugly again in Philly.

[Wolveswin]

Has anyone mentioned Pacers? I wonder if Siakam is re-signed, Indy actually makes Embiid’s list. Not only because of Siakam, but I am sure stars - more so a center - want to play with a PG like Hali.

Indy offer:
+Turner (to 3rd team for assets if Philly wants)
+Mathurian
+Walker
+McConnell (or other salary filler)
+Picks (2028 1st, 2030 1st)
+Swaps (2025, 2027, 2029)

Embiid
Siakam
Nesmith?
Nembhard?
Hali

[the_process]

Philly would want a young all star level player in return. Grizz would have to build a deal around Jaren and our 24 1st. OKC would have to build a deal around Chet and Houston/Utah 24 1st. All other offers are not serious.

In reality if Embiid asks out, as this thread suggests, Embiid will have a very short list where he wants to go. Where he wants to be traded to. Then it comes down to offers those chosen teams can and will produce. If no team has an acceptable AD style offer available as did Lakers, 76ers then have to hope rouge teams (not on Embiid list) make offers…

…then we are back to do rouge teams think 2x years of team control are enough to mortgage the farm for Embiid? Or…

…do 76ers have another standoff on their hands? Because if Embiid’s chosen destinations don’t have the goods and rouge teams aren’t comfortable with 2x years team control, it would get ugly again in Philly.

IMO Embiid doesn't get a list.

If he asks out, it will be the best offer from a contender. They won't send him to Detroit or something, but it's not going to be NY or bust, either.

[Mike lorenzo]

I think that if he leaves, he won't go anywhere...if I'm the 76ers I wouldn't be opposed... I like the package that the Nets could put together. Claxton (ST)+Clowney +Return picks+ Suns or Heat picks with Adebayo +Jazquez+Jovic+Picks

[BoogieTime]

I think that if he leaves, he won't go anywhere...if I'm the 76ers I wouldn't be opposed... I like the package that the Nets could put together. Claxton (ST)+Clowney +Return picks+ Suns or Heat picks with Adebayo +Jazquez+Jovic+Picks

he's injury riddled and on the wrong side of 30