RealGM

Trying to settle an argument on the Pistons board……

Here’s the trade…….

Pistons first rounder this year (let’s assume it’s #1), Pistons first rounder in 2029 (next first rounder they’re able to trade), Stewart and Ivey

For

Lauri

Would Danny accept this trade?

No. Ivey is a bad fit on our team and he isn't a clearly better prospect than we have. The first pick is nice, but it's a draft where the first pick has much less value than usual. The 2029 1st is so far in the future, but it is also a good asset to have.

Is it probably a reasonable offer? For an expiring Lauri it absolutely is (assuming he is willing to R+E in Detroit, which I assume he would be because that is a lot of additional money), but I just don't see us doing it.

Detroit can trade the “2027 first if two years after pick conveys to NY” there’s no reason Detroit waits til 2029 to trade a first.

And Utah should take this. Ivey and Stewart are probably both flippable pieces who would return some value. But I’d guess if Lauri is traded, Sexton and Clarkson aren’t far behind. So Ivey just has to out develop George. Which is worth at least watching for half a season or more..

I don’t think Detroit does this. Maybe Lauri is willing to sign the same contract Sabonis did and it works out. But they have to wait til the end of December to agree to that.. what if Cade gets hurt and Lauri refuses to sign? What if Lauri gets hurt?

I know some Detroit tans like the idea of top 3 pick+++ for Lauri. But I wouldn’t do it at this cost.

A fun fake idea would be..

Utah: right to swap 2025 Detroit first (if not convey to NY), right to swap 2026 Detroit first (if not conveyed to NY, 2027 Detroit first (if first conveyed to NY in 2025), right to swap 2028 Detroit first, Detroit 2029 first, right to swap 2030 Detroit first, Detroit 2031 first.

Ainge either gets
1) 3 firsts and 3 swaps
2) 2 firsts and 4 swaps

And adding value from there..

(that idea is more value/fun if you make it just 2 firsts and 4 swaps but the firsts are the 2028/2030 firsrs and swaps are 4 of the 5 24/25/26/27/29.. so Utah can swap off Minnesota/cleveland)

Stewart is a nice asset to a playoff team, not a rebuild team IMO.
Ivey is all hype and has done very little with a good amount of chances.
The #1 in this draft should be valued around a #4-5 in a normal draft IMO.

I wouldnt do this for UTA. I would take the HOU FRP from OKC and 4-5 future 1st over this deal personally.

Why are the Pistons trading all of that for a guy who'll be a flight risk a year from now? Are they a Lauri away from being competitive?

jbk1234 wrote:Why are the Pistons trading all of that for a guy who'll be a flight risk a year from now? Are they a Lauri away from being competitive?

No, we are not.

We’d lose him.

jayjaysee wrote:Detroit can trade the “2027 first if two years after pick conveys to NY” there’s no reason Detroit waits til 2029 to trade a first.

Detroit has to wait until 2029 at the moment. The provisions of the Knicks pick ties Detroit’s first rounder up until the Pistons are actually good.

JennetteMcCurdy wrote:

jayjaysee wrote:Detroit can trade the “2027 first if two years after pick conveys to NY” there’s no reason Detroit waits til 2029 to trade a first.

Detroit has to wait until 2029 at the moment. The provisions of the Knicks pick ties Detroit’s first rounder up until the Pistons are actually good.

If that were the case, Miami/Denver/Philly (and Chicago prior and other teams) wouldn’t have the pick debts they have.

It’s a conditional first and legal. It’s up to Utah to accept the condition obviously, but the 2027 first is available for trade...

People said the same thing about Portland last year… So I know a lot of people think that way.

There’s no realistic path to extend and trade, or trade and extend, Lauri before next offseason, given various timing restrictions.

I can’t see Detroit paying all that for what likely could amount to a rental for them.

In the Utah side, I’d take it. Don’t think Ainge would.

jayjaysee wrote:

JennetteMcCurdy wrote:

jayjaysee wrote:Detroit can trade the “2027 first if two years after pick conveys to NY” there’s no reason Detroit waits til 2029 to trade a first.

Detroit has to wait until 2029 at the moment. The provisions of the Knicks pick ties Detroit’s first rounder up until the Pistons are actually good.

If that were the case, Miami/Denver/Philly (and Chicago prior and other teams) wouldn’t have the pick debts they have.

It’s a conditional first and legal. It’s up to Utah to accept the condition obviously, but the 2027 first is available for trade...

People said the same thing about Portland last year… So I know a lot of people think that way.

Been through this many times - Detroit can’t trade their future FRP until 2029, as they have no idea when they’ll be good enough to satisfy the pick to the Knicks. Can’t put 2025-28 in a trade until they’re good enough to lose the pick. And that’s not happening soon.

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:There’s no realistic path to extend and trade, or trade and extend, Lauri before next offseason, given various timing restrictions.

I can’t see Detroit paying all that for what likely could amount to a rental for them.

In the Utah side, I’d take it. Don’t think Ainge would.

Detroit should have cap space (if not, who are they spending money on??). So they could plausibly trade then raise and extend (possibly with the raise and extend deal discussed before the trade is official).

For the OP's question, it really depends on what direction the Jazz are planning to take going forward. If their plan is a full rebuild then Ivey + high lotto pick (even in weak draft) + some extra value is a reasonable offer. If Utah's planning to compete then it's not such an over the top offer to get them to change direction.

JennetteMcCurdy wrote:

jayjaysee wrote:

JennetteMcCurdy wrote:
Detroit has to wait until 2029 at the moment. The provisions of the Knicks pick ties Detroit’s first rounder up until the Pistons are actually good.

If that were the case, Miami/Denver/Philly (and Chicago prior and other teams) wouldn’t have the pick debts they have.

It’s a conditional first and legal. It’s up to Utah to accept the condition obviously, but the 2027 first is available for trade...

People said the same thing about Portland last year… So I know a lot of people think that way.

Been through this many times - Detroit can’t trade their future FRP until 2029, as they have no idea when they’ll be good enough to satisfy the pick to the Knicks. Can’t put 2025-28 in a trade until they’re good enough to lose the pick. And that’s not happening soon.

I just gave you 3 real NBA current examples of teams they have traded firsts that may not convey the same year due to previous pick debt..

And your response was just that you have been through it many times?

But I guess I’ll go further and show why I feel I am right.

2025 first round draft pick to Orlando
Denver's 1st round pick to Orlando protected for selections 1-5 in 2025, 1-5 in 2026 and 1-5 in 2027 (

2027 first round draft pick to Oklahoma City
At least two years after Denver conveys a 1st round pick to Orlando or in 2029 if this pick is not conveyed to Orlando, Denver's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-5 in 2027, 1-5 in 2028 and 1-5 in 2029

2029 first round draft pick to Oklahoma City
Only if and at least two years after Denver conveys a first potential 1st round pick to Oklahoma City, Denver's second potential 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-5 in 2029 and 1-5 in 2030

Denver owes a 2025 first that may not convey until 2027 and somehow traded their 2027 first. And after trading the 2027 first, somehow traddd the 2029 first that may not have a chance to convey if the 2027 first doesn’t convey until 2029…

You can look up Philadelphia or Miami and see the exact same thing, but on picks with a bit higher protection.

The 2026 pick is only top 11 protected. So Ainge (or other teams) would believe Detroit should/could improve enough to convey it…

right to swap 2025 Detroit first with Minnesota/Cleveland first (if not conveyed to NY)..
right to swap 2026 Detroit first (if not conveyed to NY…
Right to swap 2027 Detroit first with Minnesota/Cleveland first (if not conveyed to NY in 2025)
Detroit 2028 first (if first conveyed to NY by 2026)
Right to swap 2029 Detroit first with Minnesota/Cleveland first (if not conveyed to NY in 2025)
Detroit 2030 first

giberish wrote:
Detroit should have cap space (if not, who are they spending money on??). So they could plausibly trade then raise and extend (possibly with the raise and extend deal discussed before the trade is official).

From how Scoot has corrected/informed the rest of our understanding of it, they can’t renegotiate him within six months of trading for him. And the new CBA forces teams to stay over a salary floor. So 6 months after the draft and have to enter the season at 90% (127 mil with a 141 cap)

I do think Lauri agrees to the same deal Sabonis did (add 13-14 million to next season and then add 40% to the first new season, works out to hit his max still)… But I don’t really believe a team pays market value for that risk due to having to wait until the end of December to complete the renegotiation. What happens if Lauri gets hurt? Or the team is still awful with him and he doesn’t want to stay..

jayjaysee wrote:

JennetteMcCurdy wrote:

jayjaysee wrote:
If that were the case, Miami/Denver/Philly (and Chicago prior and other teams) wouldn’t have the pick debts they have.

It’s a conditional first and legal. It’s up to Utah to accept the condition obviously, but the 2027 first is available for trade...

People said the same thing about Portland last year… So I know a lot of people think that way.

Been through this many times - Detroit can’t trade their future FRP until 2029, as they have no idea when they’ll be good enough to satisfy the pick to the Knicks. Can’t put 2025-28 in a trade until they’re good enough to lose the pick. And that’s not happening soon.

I just gave you 3 real NBA current examples of teams they have traded firsts that may not convey the same year due to previous pick debt..

And your response was just that you have been through it many times?

But I guess I’ll go further and show why I feel I am right.

2025 first round draft pick to Orlando
Denver's 1st round pick to Orlando protected for selections 1-5 in 2025, 1-5 in 2026 and 1-5 in 2027 (

2027 first round draft pick to Oklahoma City
At least two years after Denver conveys a 1st round pick to Orlando or in 2029 if this pick is not conveyed to Orlando, Denver's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-5 in 2027, 1-5 in 2028 and 1-5 in 2029

2029 first round draft pick to Oklahoma City
Only if and at least two years after Denver conveys a first potential 1st round pick to Oklahoma City, Denver's second potential 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-5 in 2029 and 1-5 in 2030

Denver owes a 2025 first that may not convey until 2027 and somehow traded their 2027 first. And after trading the 2027 first, somehow traddd the 2029 first that may not have a chance to convey if the 2027 first doesn’t convey until 2029…

You can look up Philadelphia or Miami and see the exact same thing, but on picks with a bit higher protection.

The 2026 pick is only top 11 protected. So Ainge (or other teams) would believe Detroit should/could improve enough to convey it…

right to swap 2025 Detroit first with Minnesota/Cleveland first (if not conveyed to NY)..
right to swap 2026 Detroit first (if not conveyed to NY…
Right to swap 2027 Detroit first with Minnesota/Cleveland first (if not conveyed to NY in 2025)
Detroit 2028 first (if first conveyed to NY by 2026)
Right to swap 2029 Detroit first with Minnesota/Cleveland first (if not conveyed to NY in 2025)
Detroit 2030 first

Stop. That pick is in the hands of the Knicks. Not the Pistons. Can’t be traded. Finito.

JennetteMcCurdy wrote:
Stop. That pick is in the hands of the Knicks. Not the Pistons. Can’t be traded. Finito.

I should have no problem letting that be the end of the thread…

But maybe you would prefer the Pistons keep their picks and that’s why you’re so sure of a stance that’s been proven wrong?

I thought it was to see if Detroit could trade for Lauri.. but maybe it’s just an attempt to show how “hopeless” Detroit is and Weaver is terrible, etc?

Even if Lauri was on a 4 year deal, are we really at the point where he's worth the #1 overall pick? I get that this is a "weak draft", but I still don't see that as his value. Let alone adding a ton more from the Pistons end.

IMO the deal feels closer without the 1st than it does as presented.

LightTheBeam wrote:Even if Lauri was on a 4 year deal, are we really at the point where he's worth the #1 overall pick? I get that this is a "weak draft", but I still don't see that as his value. Let alone adding a ton more from the Pistons end.

IMO the deal feels closer without the 1st than it does as presented.

It’s not just a “weak draft”. There are, as always, a lot of interesting prospects. I’m sure there will be a couple future all-stars drafted this year, maybe more.

The problem is, there are precisely ZERO players with a clear path to being an All-Star, so no one has any idea what the lottery should look like. It will all come down to scouting and individual teams’ preferences. Just some examples:

Sarr — playing in a weaker league, no idea if his shooting will develop
Risacher — not that athletic for a wing, disappears frequently
C. Williams — hyped based on his brother’s development, hasn’t done much
Sheppard — small, unimpressive athlete, will his shooting and defense hold up
Clingan — will he have any offensive game in the pros

…and it just keeps going. As a fan of a rebuilding team, I’d have no qualms about acquiring additional mid or late firsts in this draft to take more swings for the fences, but these top lottery picks aren’t holding their usual value because there’s nothing of real value to take. Sure, someone(s) will work out, but who? Smells like a year for some smart teams with lesser picks to reap the benefits of their scouting reports.

I think it’s fair. Yeah this years 1 is not like a normal years 1, but that 2029 pick is a good asset. Stewart and Ivy are tradable assets as well.
I do t know if Utah wants to build around Lauri though. It’s a deal Ainge could take or could say no to. Its not a no brainer.

George
Ivey
Buzelis or Williams (#8)
Hendricks
Sarr (#1)

Very interesting young core.

I don’t see why the Pistons would want to do this though. Lauri likely bolts after next year.