Most likely also Blake Wesley, Branham, Dom Barlow
I'd like us to bring back Mamu and Cedi
100% off the team:
This is more of a hope - Julian Champagnie
Collins is a decent back up but at the upcoming cost may be trade fodder. Not sure how Bassey is progressing in rehab... It may affect Collins' future with us.
Perhaps Graham will be looking elsewhere/ we may send him elsewhere after he played fewest games in his career. Great locker room vet though, knows how to play.
Must accomplish: shooters. We made the most 3s in franchise history but that's because we moved up to 11th in attempts per game. Our efficiency is exactly the same as last season, placing us last. Shooters shooters shooters.
Draft well. We have a ton of picks, both our own and from trades so it's a priority to stock pile the team with good high end young talent. It's cheaper and they learn our system from the get go. Priority is BBOQ, two-way play, competitiveness.
Starting level SF. For the love of quality basketball and in the best interest of Spurs fans' nerves.
Even if we keep Tre at PG, fine, but the 3 is a big immediate hole to fill.
The whole go all in with assets to trade for a big star is not happening yet. There may well be some trades made, and it's good to have some vets on the team who are willing to teach younger players and accept a role, but we're not in the business of helping out teams who we've already traded with to get great assets. Let them figure out how to get themselves out of their own holes. In the meantime, we await where their picks land.
We draft 2024, 2025, and are ready to strike for a high end star then. That's not to say we would turn down a great opportunity, but we won't overpay. If after this year some stars are openly talking about what it would be like to play with Wemby, well then things will only get more attractive.
We can improve by drafting guys who push current crop for positions (at times it felt like a few were too comfortable with their jobs and played like they didn't have to be earning anything), and now with the first year of Wemby, we have a much better idea of how to best surround him with quality talent.
Separate wheat from chaff.
Draft well.
Get complementary pieces. 3&D BBIQ.
Strike when it's most opportune with trades.
What's your moderately optimistic/semi-realistic off-seeason for the Spurs?
I feel like Tre kept proving himself after he got reinserted as starter. While there are some sexy PG names bandied about, and most recently Windy didn't deny that Trae may be the one doing the asking out, and asking out to us, the counter has been that we're not that enamoured with pairing him with Wemby.
Translation: we won't be baited into overpaying. We have leverage if a player wants us and we have many options at PG, including being fine with the one we have.
That's not to say we won't/shouldn't upgrade, but it's now not *as* an immediate issue.
The more pressing one is starting level 3.
I heard this idea on a Twitter podcast or whatever these are called, and in it Evan Townsend suggested a trade with Washington centered around Avdia for Keldon. They both have reasonable, descending contracts, it fills a big SF need for us with a young talent but one with some NBA experience already, and Keldon goes the other way as a bigger scorer, potentially filling the starting 3 in Washington.
The catch was that this would be a bigger incentive for Wiz if we end up with a higher pick and work out a deal to swap for the player they may want more, with whatever filler to match salaries if need be.
They also talked about how Collins could be a desired get for contending teams as a quality backup big.
I like Zach, I hope he gets healthy and stays that way, and even if teams were not calling for him, I'd be looking to get a more above the rim/healthy, hard-nosed backup big, be it draft or trade or FA.
So let's say we pick swap with Washington, they get Sarr and Keldon + filler, we get Topic, Avdia + whatever.
We target a backup big to develop with any of our other picks in this upcoming draft while looking into someone of a Mo Wagner/Olynyk mold. Ironically Zach is that, a tough, defending, floor spreading type, and we will need to shore that up all the more if we part with Keldon who is an absolute bull. But health and contract vs. availability/production means we have to start looking around.
I'd like us to re-sign Mamu and make sure we keep Dom Barlow.
CORE (traded only if blown away by one sided offer) Deni Avdija Bilal Coulibaly 1st round DCs (2)
BAD CONTRACT Jordan Poole was one of the worst players in the NBA while being paid like a star. Washington is as far away from contending as any team in the league, maybe farther. No reason to trade him as I see no likelihood of a positive offer. He shoots enough and works hard enough that you keep him and hope he rehabs his value.
END OF BENCH GUYS WITH POTENTIAL No reason to trade any of these as no one is offering anything much. Tristen Vukevic -- showed offensive potential as a 2nd rounder in limited time toward the end of the year Jared Butler -- played well at G league, in garbage time, then in end of year stretch as backup PG. Freshly signed to minimal 3 year deal
TRADE IF GOOD OFFER Kuzma -- Declining contract might make him attractive to a team that needs a 3rd scorer but can't afford star salary Kispert -- Has been a terrific shooter his whole career, last year stepped up his attack the basket game, good size but no defense. If we were a contender, this is the type of player we should keep but I don't see his ceiling any higher than normal year to year improvement so I'd move him for a reasonable offer.
WORTH A ROSTER SPOT BUT NOT VALUABLE RIchard Holmes -- best center on roster, not saying much, expiring next year Marvin Bagley -- best statistical center on roster, expiring next year Anthony Gill -- end of bench vet Eugene Omaruyi -- end of bench hustle guy Landry Shamet -- solid journeyman bench 2 without much upside
BACK IF NOTHING BETTER PRESENTS Guys who haven't shown much Johnny Davis -- former lottery pick, never shown NBA talent Patrick Baldwin Jr -- former late 1st, extremely unimpressive so far
G LEAGUE TYPES Justin Champagne Jules Bernard
FREE AGENT Tyus Jones -- a player I like as much as I dislike Jordan Poole, but also a solid vet without much ceiling he hasn't shown. The team had its best stretch with him injured so likely to just run it back without him and look elsewhere to spend that money
Spoiler:
mhd wrote:For the Wizards:
1. The following players will 100% be back with the team next year... i). Deni ii). Bilal Coulibaly iii). Tristan Vukjevic iv). Jordan Poole
Deni really grew this season and showed he can be part of any NBA contender. His contract extension is ridiculously cheap, so unless the Wizards get a godfather offer, they are keeping him. With this upcoming draft's dearth of star potential players, I wouldn't trade him for the #1 pick.
Bilal showed significant defensive potential right from the jump. His jumper wasn't too bad either for a raw athletic rookie. He needs to hit the weight room hard in the off-season. Had an unfortunate wrist injury that robbed him of valuable minutes towards the end of the year.
Vukjevic really showed some offensive ability in the limited time with the Wizards are he came over late in the season from the European club. He needs to get stronger obviously, but he's got some talent for sure.
Poole isn't tradeable with his contract. Looked much better when Jones got injured and he became the starting PG. Better to rehab his value. He, by all accounts, works hard and isn't a hothead team cancer type.
Kispert brings shooting and an underrated drive game. He'll never be a star or anything, but he's been a good pick where he was taken (mid first outside the lotto). I think the Wizards resign him to a cheap extension as he provides much needing spacing for Deni, Bilal, and whomever they draft this upcoming season. He's not worth much on the open market IMO, so better to keep him than let him go.
2. The following players will 100% be gone next year...
Tyus Jones (Jones played pretty well for the most part with the Wizards. Took care of the ball, has a wicked floater, and shot well. However, he's a complete sieve on defense and he cannot share the court with Poole (who is untraceable). Poole looked much better when he became the point guard. Since Poole isn't movable, the best option for the Wizards is to let Jones walk (including via a potential S&T for a trade exception). Jared Butler showed some talent as a potential backup PG who was resigned to a cheap 3 year deal at the end of the season anyways.
Johnny Davis (I'm the resident Davis hater in the Wizards forum. I hated the pick pretty much from day 1 and called him a bust after watching him in his Summer league debut. He looked horrendous in his debut pre-season as well. The new FO never drafted him and I can't fathom they pick up his 4th year option making him an expiring contract. If he's not traded as contract filler in a trade to take on other people's bad deals, then I can see him getting cut. Very limited athletically and does not have a jumper that threatens defenses limiting space for everyone else. Looks the part the defensively, and competes hard on that end. However, with his limited athleticism, elite wings will torch him (Ant crushed him at the end of the season).
Omuruyi, Jules Bernard, Justin Champagnie are just G-league talents that could easily be gone. They compete hard whenever they play.
Patrick Baldwin JR may make it back since he was received as a former first rounder in the Poole-CP3 trade. He had a bad back injury in college and it was night and day the difference from Summer league and the end of the season for his athleticism to come back. He has a nice stroke, and showed some flashes. I could see the Wiz picking up his option as a potential lotto ticket as a stretch big.
3. The 3 things my team must accomplish this off-season are... (Note: this could be cap wise, on the court needs wise, coaching change, free agency/draft needs/targets, etc.)
Keep interim coach Brian Keefe. He was light years better than Wes Unseld Jr as a coach despite the record. Unseld was a pure Nepo hire from the previous FO and our utter fool of an owner Ted Leonsis. The new FO has no ties with him. Keefe got the team to improve defensively despite the limited talent and compete hard.
Kuzma is the interesting case. He has a declining contract and is certain to be a rotation player for any playoff team. He seems like a positive guy who likes being in DC. If the Wiz get a couple of firsts, I can see them trading him. Otherwise, I can see them keeping him until the deadline. He won't be given away.
In terms of strategy, the Wizards do not control their first round pick as the Knicks own it (this year it will not convey). It is top 10 protected next year (no way the Wizards convey that) and top 8 protected the year after. If it is not conveyed, then it turns into two seconds. So, the Wizards will continue to tank to avoid giving that pick. That means no trades of consequence to try for the play-in.
The Wiz will continue to attempt to get picks from every trade (so far, the new FO has acquired at least one draft pick in every trade they have made so far in their limited time running the team). I'd expect them to use the expiring contracts of Holmes, Davis (with his option declined), and potentially Bagley (who looked good when he came over in the trade that netted them two 2nd rounders) to get some other team's unwanted contract in exchange for draft picks.
In terms of the draft, the Wiz will simply draft BPA IMO. WIth thus draft, I'd figure Topic & Sarr are the top targets. Otherwise, they'll just go with best talent. I trust the new FO since it looks like they hit a home run with the Vukcevic 2nd round pick. Drafting Bilal showed me they want potential all-star talent vs taking no risks like the previous FO did (taking Johnny Davis was an indefensible pick given his lack of potential).
Basically, the Wizards are a landing spot for any other team's trash as long as they get draft picks LOL.
What's your moderately optimistic/semi-realistic off-seeason for the Wizards?
Draft well, get a good return (2 bad firsts or one decent one) for Kyle Kuzma either this year or next, develop the talent we have (even Jordan Poole), try to get lucky with more rejects that have NBA talent and can play a role (Jared Butler, Richaun Holmes, Marvin Bagley, etc.), and SUCK enough to get a Cooper Flag, Ace Bailey, etc. to play the #1 role for the future.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
Kiss of Death wrote:The Rockets are in a really good spot. They have the assets to make a big splash, but they don’t have to. They get Sengun and Tari Eason back and add Steven Adams to a 40+ win team.
A lot will depend on the draft lottery in a few weeks. With some luck, they could have 2 top 10 picks. At worst, they’ll have 1 top 10 pick.
There is no 100% either way. They are likely to keep the Core 6, unless a crazy good deal comes along. FVV will probably draw a lot of interest and could help a lot of teams, but I doubt they entertain any offers. Dillon Brooks could be on the market due to Amen and Eason being ready to take his starting spot and contenders needing his skill set. Tate, Landale and Jeff Green will probably be shopped, along with the Nets picks. Aaron Holiday and Reggie Bullock will probably search for bigger roles and paychecks elsewhere. Boban might just retire and move to Hollywood. That leaves 3 open roster spots likely.
They will be a better team next year without making any major moves. They have the assets to make a major move.
Spoiler:
K_chile22 wrote:100% staying for rockets: no one technically. Close enough to 100%? I'd say Amen, Sengun, Tari Bari and FVV are all >95% and Jalen a bit lower than that but still pretty high.
100% gone... Also no one. Closest is probably Bullock, imagine both sides thought he'd figure in more, or Boban if he wants to hang it up or they don't think they still need a vibes guy.
They need a movement shooter, not necessarily a every night rotation guy but just a knockdown guy. Think they should avoid a Jalen extension unless it's very favorable for them, preferably they leave as much flexibility for next off-season as possible.
What's your moderately optimistic/semi-realistic off-seeason for the Rockets?
Depends on where the picks land and what they do with the pick/picks. I do not expect a major move either way. If they somehow keep their own 2024 pick, then that changes everything. Go shopping with 2 top 10 picks. I think there's a pretty good chance that they trade the Nets 24, regardless of where it lands. Their one glaring need is a backup point guard or combo guard who can shoot 3s. I suspect Amen will pay 1-4 and will have among the highest minutes played on the team, whether starting or off the bench. He is good with the ball and he is game changer without the ball in his hands. Holiday, Bullock and Boban are likely gone, so they will probably have 3 roster spots to fill. The draft lottery on May 12 will determine the strategy.
1. The following players will 100% be back with the team next year...
-Victor Wembanyama
That's it. That's the list. I think there are guys like Vassell/Sochan who are like 95% certain to be back but I also would not be entirely shocked if they were included in a deal for a bigger fish. Realistically though, the Spurs have historically valued continuity, so I would expect a large portion of the roster to return next season. But Victor is the only truly untouchable player on the roster
2. The following players will 100% be gone next year...
-Cedi Osman -Devonte Graham
That's really it. I like Graham but he is clearly not in SA's plans and it doesn't sound like Osman is either. There are a number of other players I feel shouldn't return but only these two I'm pretty confident will not be back
3. The 3 things my team must accomplish this off-season are...
-Address the PG position. Tre Jones is a wonderful backup but he is not a starting level PG.
-Get some 3&D (wing) players. Spurs roster is filled with one dimensional players who cannot shoot or defend. Getting spacers around Wemby that are not turnstiles on defense is a must.
-Trade Zach Collins. Nothing personal, but he was abysmal for the most part this season and is not a fit with Wemby on the court and is not good as his primary backup.
100% back (excluding the overpay deal that never happens anyway): Jabari, Sengun - Not seeing a way to improve their positions and no good long term backups for their positions so why let them go (Not getting Embiid, Wemby, etc. and probably not willing to add pieces to these guys to get a Giannis - so nothing really possible).
90% back: Amen, Whitmore, Eason, Brooks, JGreen - again, unless there is a big move made these guys are not moving. But, since the team is loaded at pg/sg/sf, one might be shipped in the right deal.
60% back: Vleet - my choice to ship if we need to send out salary. He is solid and provides good leadership but I want more.
50% back: Tate, Landale, JeffGreen, Adams - solid bench guys but will ship them as salary fodder. Rockets are setup to have cap space in 2025 so probably not cutting them (only Adams is grty). Odds are they are all gone after next year.
Probably gone: Nobody. The rest will be bench/salary fodder.
My ideal move is a deal where Rockets ship: Vleet - salary plus has value Amen - Guy is a stud that should bring high return but nervous about his shooting. Salary fodder - Tate, Landale picks: #9 - Rockets do not really need anyone in that range (kind of high to pick a backup center but that is most likely if they keep the pick).
- of course for that kind of value, it would take someone huge (Booker, Trae, JBrown level).
I'm not completely out on the Pistons young core as some. People want change which I understand as they're tired of losing and the team being an embarrassment. In reality a lot of our young guys played well when on the floor together. It was our lack of bench and Monty's god awful rotations that killed us. Examples of what worked well:
Duren/Fontecchio/Thompson/Ivey/Cunningham: 113 mins together with net rating of +3.8 Duren/Stewart/Fontecchio/Ivey/Cunningham: 90 mins together with net rating of +8.9
I'm going to be realistic with FA in terms of what we can attract, and say we sign Tobias Harris (likely comes cheaper after his poor playoffs) and Malik Monk or KCP (this will be an overpay but we have the money).
And then I'd roll with a rotation of:
Duren/Stewart Harris/Thompson Fontecchio/Grimes Monk or KCP/Ivey Cade/Sasser
I think that's a good balance of shooters surrounding Cade and the bench has some real defensive potential. With added talent and internal development (and potentially a new coach) I think we can at least get to 30 wins which would be a real upward trajectory.
I haven't included a potential rookie yet as it really depends on what pick we end up with.
Mr Peanut wrote:I'm not completely out on the Pistons young core as some. People want change which I understand as they're tired of losing and the team being an embarrassment. In reality a lot of our young guys played well when on the floor together. It was our lack of bench and Monty's god awful rotations that killed us. Examples of what worked well:
Duren/Fontecchio/Thompson/Ivey/Cunningham: 113 mins together with net rating of +3.8 Duren/Stewart/Fontecchio/Ivey/Cunningham: 90 mins together with net rating of +8.9
I'm going to be realistic with FA in terms of what we can attract, and say we sign Tobias Harris (likely comes cheaper after his poor playoffs) and Malik Monk or KCP (this will be an overpay but we have the money).
And then I'd roll with a rotation of:
Duren/Stewart Harris/Thompson Fontecchio/Grimes Monk or KCP/Ivey Cade/Sasser
I think that's a good balance of shooters surrounding Cade and the bench has some real defensive potential. With added talent and internal development (and potentially a new coach) I think we can at least get to 30 wins which would be a real upward trajectory.
I haven't included a potential rookie yet as it really depends on what pick we end up with.
I like all of that. I'm on team keep the young guys. A franchise like Detroit pretty much only has the draft to get themselves a future star. Might as well take a swing with our lotto pick this year and say a prayer.
Consolidating and trading our young guys now wouldn't get us much better. The only guy id move now would be Ivey for a good forward since we have the cap space to replace him pretty easily. Monk, KCP directly or Tyus Jones with Cade sliding over works. . Would prefer to continue starting Ivey next to Cade though since, again, we have lots of cap space to pick up a forward like the great Tobias lol or an Oubre or Obi Toppin. Nothing earth shattering but the draft is where we find our impact players. Cade Ivey Ausar Duren and Hopefully thus summers lotto pick are our only shots imo. For now I think surrounding them with good role players is our move. If we keep Ivey starting then we should look to get a good vet PG to backup and mentor Cade
100% back: Noah Clowney -He’s the only player who is definitely more valuable to Brooklyn than other teams and a part of their long term vision.
90% back: Cam Thomas Ben Simmons - Cam is similar to Clowney but I could see him being moved if Brooklyn pursues Trae or Mitchell. Simmons is Simmons but may be valued as an expiring contract in a deal.
60% back: Mikal Bridges Cam Johnson Nic Claxton Dariq Whitehead Dennis Shroder -Bridges and Johnson could be moved separately or together in trades where Brooklyn resets or upgrades. Claxton is THE priority but could still sign elsewhere. The Nets probably include Whitehead in the right deal. Shroder is a stopgap with little trade value.
50% back: DFS Trenton Watford -The Nets want to move DFS but might wait until the deadline. Watford deserves a real contract but the Nets might not be the ones who give it to him.
Probably gone: Everyone else
The Nets might be the most unpredictable team this offseason. Every option is on the table. They could rebuild or trade for a star. I doubt that they even know which direction they’ll choose.
