More Value: Towns or Markannen

[shrink]

14-6 without Towns - 70%
41 - 19 with him - .683

Lots of little injuries over the last 5 years. Not saying that's the end all be all, I just am not sure how many teams are lining up to take that 4/221 contract, let alone give massive value for it.

I think its Lauri by a lot.

The win percentage is not a good measure of Minnesota's success with and without Karl-Anthony Towns. Strength of schedule has been substantially lower and Minnesota's half-court offense is significantly less potent.

Minnesota would comfortably be the first seed in the Western Conference, if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't get injured.

I would say that it is easier for playoff caliber teams to win games in the second half of the season because some of their opponents are deliberately trying to lose. Last year, I was happy the Wolves were scheduled to face so many teams projected to be in the lottery early in the season, because I thought this would give the team time to integrate Gobert. This was totally wrong, as feisty UTA’s, SAS’s, WAS and CHA would continually work hard and beat the Wolves. Those teams were riding the brake more in the second half as they positioned themselves for the lottery. This year, Towns only missed two games until his injury March 3. Some of those non-Towns wins could have been easier to get.

I also wanted to chime in that the while the non-Towns record was 70%, if MIN wins its final game, it’s record with Towns is 69.35%.

[Wolveswin]

14-6 without Towns - 70%
41 - 19 with him - .683

Lots of little injuries over the last 5 years. Not saying that's the end all be all, I just am not sure how many teams are lining up to take that 4/221 contract, let alone give massive value for it.

I think its Lauri by a lot.

I would like to hear from more “Lauri by a lot” folks. How can an expiring contract player - with only one team (Jazz) who can raise and extend - be ‘a lot’ more value than Karl Anthony Towns? I flight risk for every possible team is worth a lot more assets than Towns? Makes no sense.

[Texas Chuck]

Trade value isn’t just the highest reasonable offer, but also has to include the likelihood that the highest reasonable offer is accepted.

Fully disagree. Just because you don’t sell something for what it’s worth, doesn’t make it worth something different. Just means it’s not for sale.

I respect your right to be wrong.

Your position sadly is widely shared which is why this board really struggles to find deals. Because too many posters overvalue their own players but think its totally cool to say a value no team would ever pay is actually the value just because they want it/believe it to be so. Then they act offended when everyone else makes market values.

You can put a price tag of $20K on your 86 Escort with 212k miles but that's not its value just because you did.

[jayjaysee]

Question about Lauri renegotiating and extending this off-season. I understand that the Jazz have cap space to renegotiate the final year of his deal and extend his contract but how much money could he be possibly be leaving on the table if he played out the final year of his contract? I'm just curious to how much more beneficial it is for him to R+E this off-season rather than wait until 2025 since it is constantly brought up.

He probably won’t get any “extra” money out of it. A 30% max is huge for him or most players…

But he will get the security of it happening and will get it a year sooner. Utah can pay him an extra 25 million next year, but would likely keep the future years below his max as part of it. Same as Sabonis.

[mg]

I might slightly prefer Markkanen because of the positional flexibility with him.

With that said I don't think Lauri is a flight risk assuming he gets traded to a team that is theoretically competing for titles. He's already come out and said in a Finnish interview a few months ago he does not want to be a journeyman that keeps getting traded. He has a young family and wants to settle down into a long term, winning situation be it in Utah or somewhere else. I think priorities can be a little different for foreign born players. He's likely not pulling a Kawhi and bolting after one season if he gets dealt to a good situation.

[SkyHook]

Fully disagree. Just because you don’t sell something for what it’s worth, doesn’t make it worth something different. Just means it’s not for sale.

I respect your right to be wrong.

Your position sadly is widely shared which is why this board really struggles to find deals. Because too many posters overvalue their own players but think its totally cool to say a value no team would ever pay is actually the value just because they want it/believe it to be so. Then they act offended when everyone else makes market values.

You can put a price tag of $20K on your 86 Escort with 212k miles but that's not its value just because you did.

Just like reality then.

I’ve said before that I suspect that there are thousands of trade ideas that get bandied about by front offices each year, from casual conversations at lower levels all the way up to owner-to-owner discussions, and we end up with mere dozens which come to fruition. The VAST MAJORITY of trades don’t have legs exactly because teams can’t agree on value, reach an impasse, and end discussion. Why should we expect RealGM to be any different?

And you’re making my case for me with the Escort analogy.

[JayTWill]

Question about Lauri renegotiating and extending this off-season. I understand that the Jazz have cap space to renegotiate the final year of his deal and extend his contract but how much money could he be possibly be leaving on the table if he played out the final year of his contract? I'm just curious to how much more beneficial it is for him to R+E this off-season rather than wait until 2025 since it is constantly brought up.

He probably won’t get any “extra” money out of it. A 30% max is huge for him or most players…

But he will get the security of it happening and will get it a year sooner. Utah can pay him an extra 25 million next year, but would likely keep the future years below his max as part of it. Same as Sabonis.

I was just wondering if he could get close to the same amount of money without committing to the Jazz for the next 5 years. The fan base seems to be a little confused about the direction of the team and the roster construction and dejected by some of the decisions around the trade deadline over the last 2 seasons. Hopefully the organization has communicated a much clearer vision to Lauri for the prime years of his career.

I know extending now provides more security and his best years have been with coach Hardy and the Jazz organization but his skillset at his age will be very attractive in free agency next year. He does have a bit of an injury history so it would be a gamble to wait until then but locking into the uncertainty of the Jazz for the next 5 years seems to be a gamble too unless they have been very straightforward about their plan with him.

[brackdan70]

Fully disagree. Just because you don’t sell something for what it’s worth, doesn’t make it worth something different. Just means it’s not for sale.

I respect your right to be wrong.

Your position sadly is widely shared which is why this board really struggles to find deals. Because too many posters overvalue their own players but think its totally cool to say a value no team would ever pay is actually the value just because they want it/believe it to be so. Then they act offended when everyone else makes market values.

You can put a price tag of $20K on your 86 Escort with 212k miles but that's not its value just because you did.

If it runs I’ll give 500 bucks for that escort.

[SkyHook]

I respect your right to be wrong.

Your position sadly is widely shared which is why this board really struggles to find deals. Because too many posters overvalue their own players but think its totally cool to say a value no team would ever pay is actually the value just because they want it/believe it to be so. Then they act offended when everyone else makes market values.

You can put a price tag of $20K on your 86 Escort with 212k miles but that's not its value just because you did.

If it runs I’ll give 500 bucks for that escort.

As a side note, I saw that a 21 year old Ford Bronco sold for $75K. Of course it was the one that OJ was in as it slowly rolled down the freeway.

[shrink]

I respect your right to be wrong.

Your position sadly is widely shared which is why this board really struggles to find deals.

If I chop out all the context, these two lines back to back have a different meaning, and it makes me laugh.

[Wolveswin]

I might slightly prefer Markkanen because of the positional flexibility with him.

With that said I don't think Lauri is a flight risk assuming he gets traded to a team that is theoretically competing for titles. He's already come out and said in a Finnish interview a few months ago he does not want to be a journeyman that keeps getting traded. He has a young family and wants to settle down into a long term, winning situation be it in Utah or somewhere else. I think priorities can be a little different for foreign born players. He's likely not pulling a Kawhi and bolting after one season if he gets dealt to a good situation.

I mean Towns has proved he is a PF and a C. That is pretty flexible.

Markkanen is a flight risk. 100%. And he can’t be extended (other than by Jazz). So a team trading for him has to hope he doesn’t fly. Definition of a flight risk.

[minimus]

As MIN fan I should add that Towns has been transforming his game according to team needs:

- he was primary a postup big under Thibs command
- he was a dominant stretch 5 under Ryan Saunders coaching. He shot a lot threes, and he was making them with elite accuracy
- he was fiveout offensive hub under Finch coaching before Gobert trade, he drove a lot, basically Giannis like. That team had best offensive rating in second half of season
- he has been hybrid big who plays with and without Gobert in best defensive team in NBA

To sum up: Towns in MIN has been playing different roles, BUT he has been part of successful offensive and defensive systems. I think it's important.

[tmorgan]

To at least some extent, Towns perceived value has suffered as a consequence of the struggles of the Minnesota franchise. Now that the team is good, the narrative has oddly continued, with most of the positive thoughts attaching themselves to Anthony Edwards.

To me, this is strange. Edwards’ narrative has clearly changed, as his initial assessment was as a strong athlete that might not have true passion for the game. No one thinks that now. But the truth is, he was a second very positive, maybe even elite, piece, and one was already there. No one wins alone in the NBA. Garnett didn’t. Love didn’t. Why does Towns get crapped on so much?

I get it, KAT does have some weaknesses, real and imaginary. His game looks awkward at times. He’s not a particularly good help defender. He’s a straight line attacker, like almost all bigs. But he’s (at least just about) the best volume stretch big ever, plays solid man defense, and is a solid rebounder. He plays with passion. I’d say I’d like to see him as a second option on a real contender, but he already is!

If Minnesota looks to move him for financial reasons, I think the line of suitors will be long.

[Texas Chuck]

To at least some extent, Towns perceived value has suffered as a consequence of the struggles of the Minnesota franchise. Now that the team is good, the narrative has oddly continued, with most of the positive thoughts attaching themselves to Anthony Edwards.

To me, this is strange. Edwards’ narrative has clearly changed, as his initial assessment was as a strong athlete that might not have true passion for the game. No one thinks that now. But the truth is, he was a second very positive, maybe even elite, piece, and one was already there. No one wins alone in the NBA. Garnett didn’t. Love didn’t. Why does Towns get crapped on so much?

I get it, KAT does have some weaknesses, real and imaginary. His game looks awkward at times. He’s not a particularly good help defender. He’s a straight line attacker, like almost all bigs. But he’s (at least just about) the best volume stretch big ever, plays solid man defense, and is a solid rebounder. He plays with passion. I’d say I’d like to see him as a second option on a real contender, but he already is!

If Minnesota looks to move him for financial reasons, I think the line of suitors will be long.

You left out the biggest factor imo -- Rudy Gobert. Gobert has been their best player since he got there. He doesn't get that credit because defense and because people just don't like the guy, but when your best player plays your position and you have this 3rd center who makes 1/3 as much but provides some real offensive punch and shooting as well, its just natural to think Towns is the most expendable of the big money guys.

And both KG and Love took a bunch of heat for not winning (or winning enough in KG's case). This isn't remotely unique to Towns. And of course he really got hurt narrative wise by Jimmy Butler. Butler punked him and then left and the team fell right back to irrelevance leading some to conclude that was all Butler and Towns simply isn't capable of leading a good team. And frankly the jury is still kinda out on that.

I think everyone understands the offensive skill set is there. But there are legit questions he hasn't answered.

[Euphonetiks]

To at least some extent, Towns perceived value has suffered as a consequence of the struggles of the Minnesota franchise. Now that the team is good, the narrative has oddly continued, with most of the positive thoughts attaching themselves to Anthony Edwards.

To me, this is strange. Edwards’ narrative has clearly changed, as his initial assessment was as a strong athlete that might not have true passion for the game. No one thinks that now. But the truth is, he was a second very positive, maybe even elite, piece, and one was already there. No one wins alone in the NBA. Garnett didn’t. Love didn’t. Why does Towns get crapped on so much?

I get it, KAT does have some weaknesses, real and imaginary. His game looks awkward at times. He’s not a particularly good help defender. He’s a straight line attacker, like almost all bigs. But he’s (at least just about) the best volume stretch big ever, plays solid man defense, and is a solid rebounder. He plays with passion. I’d say I’d like to see him as a second option on a real contender, but he already is!

If Minnesota looks to move him for financial reasons, I think the line of suitors will be long.

You left out the biggest factor imo -- Rudy Gobert. Gobert has been their best player since he got there. He doesn't get that credit because defense and because people just don't like the guy, but when your best player plays your position and you have this 3rd center who makes 1/3 as much but provides some real offensive punch and shooting as well, its just natural to think Towns is the most expendable of the big money guys.

And both KG and Love took a bunch of heat for not winning (or winning enough in KG's case). This isn't remotely unique to Towns. And of course he really got hurt narrative wise by Jimmy Butler. Butler punked him and then left and the team fell right back to irrelevance leading some to conclude that was all Butler and Towns simply isn't capable of leading a good team. And frankly the jury is still kinda out on that.

I think everyone understands the offensive skill set is there. But there are legit questions he hasn't answered.

I think beyond Rudy being amazing and getting no credit because everyone hates him, KAT still catches flack because he has never succeeded as the guy. Edwards’ narrative has changed because they are winning with Ant as the man. 4/$221M is a lot of capspace to dedicate to a Robin in this atmosphere.

[shrink]

To at least some extent, Towns perceived value has suffered as a consequence of the struggles of the Minnesota franchise. Now that the team is good, the narrative has oddly continued, with most of the positive thoughts attaching themselves to Anthony Edwards.

To me, this is strange. Edwards’ narrative has clearly changed, as his initial assessment was as a strong athlete that might not have true passion for the game. No one thinks that now. But the truth is, he was a second very positive, maybe even elite, piece, and one was already there. No one wins alone in the NBA. Garnett didn’t. Love didn’t. Why does Towns get crapped on so much?

I get it, KAT does have some weaknesses, real and imaginary. His game looks awkward at times. He’s not a particularly good help defender. He’s a straight line attacker, like almost all bigs. But he’s (at least just about) the best volume stretch big ever, plays solid man defense, and is a solid rebounder. He plays with passion. I’d say I’d like to see him as a second option on a real contender, but he already is!

If Minnesota looks to move him for financial reasons, I think the line of suitors will be long.

Bravo. This is the closest to my opinion as I’ve seen. I think he gets scapegoated, as people write their own narratives about him.

Five years ago, when NBA GM’s were asked which player in the NBA would they build their franchise around, Towns was the top pick. He never lived up to that type of hype, and I think he gets overly criticized for disappointing his early fans. We penalize Towns for not being good enough to get bad Wolves teams to the playoffs, despite the team constantly playing him with youngsters. When he has any help at all, the team makes the playoffs, and the other guy gets all the credit. Even when the team succeeds, we remember Towns bad playoff games and forget the good, and do the opposite with Ant.

People hate the things that Towns says, but if worse comes out of Ant’s mouth, we think it’s cute. The fact that he is a loyal superstar (to MIN, of all places!), the fact that he is willing to sacrifice his own glory to help the team win, and the fact that he never gets into trouble, and everyone says he’s a great person - that doesn’t factor into people’s negative opinions of the guy. He is constantly the scapegoat for MIN losses, and few give him credit for the wins. The first sentence in most people’s description of Towns always seems to be: “Well, he’s a good player, but …”

[Catchall]

I have Lauri better by a little primarily because he guards his position. Teams can test Towns defensively. However, Towns has the ability to put the ball down and create for himself better than Lauri, and he probably has more of a post-up package.