Wolveswin wrote:giberish wrote:Wolveswin wrote:I think you over value Kuminga. If we look at previous star trades as our comps, picks are valued most - without a doubt. Kuminga would be lucky to be the Sexton/Markkanen (at time of trade) or Kessler ‘filler’ that were sent out in previous star trades. 100% the side dish to multiple picks as the main course.
Warriors getting their 2030 pick has major future trade value. Frees up 2x picks - of their own which would have most value in league. Way more than what Kuminga equals.
4x GSW 1sts >> 2x GSW + meh 1st from Kuminga trade (or Kuminga himself)
If Warriors are all in, for a star that makes a chip run realistic, they need all their draft capital which has considerable more value than their meh youth.
Gutting out the Warriors future that much for a 1 or 2 year run of being a secondary title contender is completely nuts. I don't see a scenario where GS is trading more than 2 future 1sts anyways so the Washington pick is irrelevant.
Looking at the general types of stars that might be traded, I'd put them into 4 types:
1) The young or youngish long-term guys. While great to get, in the unlikely event one is on the market OKC or SA or someone will outbid what GS can offer.
2) The flight risks. While GS is a relatively desirable market it's tough to see someone sticking around as Curry fades and the team has no youth/picks. (also Mitchell - the most obvious guy in this group - is a bad fit anyways).
3) The older guys where you're hoping to milk the last 1-3 years of high-level play. This is the market GS would be looking at (more asset-rich but younger teams like OKC wouldn't be interested). GS's competition would be LAL and perhaps Philly (Phoenix an LAC might be interested but have nothing to trade). GS can make competitive offers without going more than 2 1sts out.
4) The quasi-stars. Guys with some combination of contract/fame/PPG to look like a star without making a star impact. Obviously shouldn't offer too much for these guys.
Problem with alllll of that is GSW isn’t making bids on these guys in a vacuum. So many teams with way better assets will be in the hunt.
As I prefaced my original post, IF Warriors are going star hunting (which means keeping Paul - not needing negative’ish Wiggins as salary ballast) then they need to prime their asset game. 2x 1sts and current GSW youth most teams will see as meh (especially when Kuminga has only 1 rookie year left on contract) is going to reap no rewards. I mean, unless overpaying for LaVine types.
Anyone that costs more than Kunminga and 2 1sts is either out of the Warriors price range (as noted, teams like OKC have a different level of assets), being wildly overpaid for in terms of trade value, or the other team just really doesn't value what GS has to offer. In any case there's no scenario where GS offering 4 1sts out to 2031 makes sense.
