Draft Night Deal: Morant to Orlando

[JRoy]

Morant will never be a top 3 guard if he can't shoot 3's.

The guy has shot 30% in 3s over the last 2 years.

I think that the Magic are much better off having Suggs defense and 40% 3 point shooting.

The Magic have enough guys who can't shoot the 3.

Morant has been on a downward slope in 3 point shooting over the last 3 years. It is actually getting worse.

That shoulder surgery probably won't help.

CLearly Ja is a much better offensive player. Suggs is a much better defensive player. Depends on what you want or need.

Morant is an all star level player.

Suggs is a high end role player.

An all star who shoots 30% from 3. Ultimately, the Magic are just a bad match for Morant's talent.

It happens. Barnes was an All star this year also. WOuldn't trade Suggs for him either.

I am not even talking about which one is better.

The player has to be a match otherwise all that happens is the team gets worse.

True for both Barnes and Morant.

ORL needs a better guard than Suggs to take the next step.

We will see what the calculus looks like when these guys come off rookie deals and ORL has to decide whom to keep.

[AaronB]

Morant is an all star level player.

Suggs is a high end role player.

An all star who shoots 30% from 3. Ultimately, the Magic are just a bad match for Morant's talent.

It happens. Barnes was an All star this year also. WOuldn't trade Suggs for him either.

I am not even talking about which one is better.

The player has to be a match otherwise all that happens is the team gets worse.

True for both Barnes and Morant.

ORL needs a better guard than Suggs to take the next step.

We will see what the calculus looks like when these guys come off rookie deals and ORL has to decide whom to keep.

On this we will disagree.

The Magic need Franz and Paolo to be better. They spend so much time with the ball in their hands that the team basically lives and dies with their performance.

Great teams have great players and Paolo and Franz are not quite there yet. They do give glimpses though and it is beautiful when it happens.

[Knightro]

ORL needs a better guard than Suggs to take the next step.

We will see what the calculus looks like when these guys come off rookie deals and ORL has to decide whom to keep.

Suggs was really quite good this year man. EPM loved him, ranking him as the 37th best player in the league overall.

He's very likely going to make the All-Defense team (probably 2nd team) and he made .397 from 3PT on good volume on top of that.

To me, he's 100% part of the Magic's core along with Banchero and Wagner.

I do think the Magic should be aggressive this summer and do need acquire a better guard, but that player would be playing next to Suggs, not replacing him.

[JRoy]

ORL needs a better guard than Suggs to take the next step.

We will see what the calculus looks like when these guys come off rookie deals and ORL has to decide whom to keep.

Suggs was really quite good this year man. EPM loved him, ranking him as the 37th best player in the league overall.

He's very likely going to make the All-Defense team (probably 2nd team) and he made .397 from 3PT on good volume on top of that.

To me, he's 100% part of the Magic's core along with Banchero and Wagner.

I do think the Magic should be aggressive this summer and do need acquire a better guard, but that player would be playing next to Suggs, not replacing him.

Understood.

The old “we need a high end player but won’t trade our top 4 guys and have no good picks”.

Sometimes that works out.

[TGW]

The Magic won't trade Suggs for Morant

The takes in this thread are just wow.

[Knightro]

Understood.

The old “we need a high end player but won’t trade our top 4 guys and have no good picks”.

Sometimes that works out.

I get it.

But I feel like between 3 unprotected 1sts, two lottery picks from last year (Black/Howard) and the ability to absorb another contract with cap space, they should be able to get in on a trade for a guard who can really help them.

And if not, then they can just spend some of their free agency dollars to find upgrades on Fultz and Harris.

[JRoy]

Understood.

The old “we need a high end player but won’t trade our top 4 guys and have no good picks”.

Sometimes that works out.

I get it.

But I feel like between 3 unprotected 1sts, two lottery picks from last year (Black/Howard) and the ability to absorb another contract with cap space, they should be able to get in on a trade for a guard who can really help them.

And if not, then they can just spend some of their free agency dollars to find upgrades on Fultz and Harris.

Ideally, Black becomes a strong lead guard. I like him a lot, more than Scoot anyway but it’s tough for lead guards to learn OJT in the playoffs. A solid vet (that is not Fultz) for a couple years with Black taking a larger role on the way.

[Knightro]

Ideally, Black becomes a strong lead guard. I like him a lot, more than Scoot anyway but it’s tough for lead guards to learn OJT in the playoffs. A solid vet (that is not Fultz) for a couple years with Black taking a larger role on the way.

Sure. I'm not rushing to get rid of Black by any means. But if the right deal comes along, I'd be willing to make him the player centerpiece of said deal.

What I will say though is that Black pretty much got no meaningful point guard reps this season. When he was thrust into duty because of injuries, he was used as a spot up, catch-and-shoot player and that's basically it.

I don't anticipate him being able to handle being a starting point guard on a team with playoff aspirations any time soon.

But your idea of bringing in a veteran better than Fultz and using Black as a backup PG until he's ready probably makes the most sense. Black's just further away from being able to do that than some people realize.

[Ducklett]

The Magic won't trade Suggs for Morant

The takes in this thread are just wow.

Is it straight up Suggs for Morant? Then the Magic would be fools not to make that trade.

[JRoy]

Ideally, Black becomes a strong lead guard. I like him a lot, more than Scoot anyway but it’s tough for lead guards to learn OJT in the playoffs. A solid vet (that is not Fultz) for a couple years with Black taking a larger role on the way.

Sure. I'm not rushing to get rid of Black by any means. But if the right deal comes along, I'd be willing to make him the player centerpiece of said deal.

What I will say though is that Black pretty much got no meaningful point guard reps this season. When he was thrust into duty because of injuries, he was used as a spot up, catch-and-shoot player and that's basically it.

I don't anticipate him being able to handle being a starting point guard on a team with playoff aspirations any time soon.

But your idea of bringing in a veteran better than Fultz and using Black as a backup PG until he's ready probably makes the most sense. Black's just further away from being able to do that than some people realize.

Who would fit that role?

Clear starter, but able to defer in a couple years.

Conley might be too old. Trae Young, Garland, too expensive.

Derek White probably unavailable without an overpay.

Tough to thread the needle.

[Knightro]

Who would fit that role?

Clear starter, but able to defer in a couple years.

Conley might be too old. Trae Young, Garland, too expensive.

Derek White probably unavailable without an overpay.

Tough to thread the needle.

Great question.

On the free agency front...

Some people think Malik Monk could be a starting lead guard on the right team. I'm skeptical. He's never really been a full-time starter before and I'm just not sure if he's actually point guard.

But he did have a 28.9 AST%, which was No. 1 among non-starters and No. 18 among all guards overall. If you stuck him into a starting role, it seems very likely he'd average 7-8 APG.

Immanuel Quickley seemingly would be a fit, but he is restricted and Toronto is probably matching anything.

You also have D'Angelo Russell and Tyus Jones out there.

On the trade front...

I think you have to at least call about both Hawks guards. That's the only team that seems certain to at least be shopping a starting caliber guard this summer without knowing what's going to happen in Cleveland.

[JRoy]

Who would fit that role?

Clear starter, but able to defer in a couple years.

Conley might be too old. Trae Young, Garland, too expensive.

Derek White probably unavailable without an overpay.

Tough to thread the needle.

Great question.

On the free agency front...

Some people think Malik Monk could be a starting lead guard on the right team. I'm skeptical. He's never really been a full-time starter before and I'm just not sure if he's actually point guard.

But he did have a 28.9 AST%, which was No. 1 among non-starters and No. 18 among all guards overall. If you stuck him into a starting role, it seems very likely he'd average 7-8 APG.

Immanuel Quickley seemingly would be a fit, but he is restricted and Toronto is probably matching anything.

You also have D'Angelo Russell and Tyus Jones out there.

On the trade front...

I think you have to at least call about both Hawks guards. That's the only team that seems certain to at least be shopping a starting caliber guard this summer without knowing what's going to happen in Cleveland.

I don’t think that projection with Monk is realistic. He’s been a backup his whole career for a reason.

Jones seems the best if that bunch.

[AaronB]

The Magic won't trade Suggs for Morant

The takes in this thread are just wow.

Is it straight up Suggs for Morant? Then the Magic would be fools not to make that trade.

Why would the Magic want a guy who takes the ball out of Franz and Paolo's hands?

A guy who shoots 30% from 3 (27% this year) and is a below average defender (EPM).

A guy coming off a severe shoulder injury. Will that reduce the 3 point % even more? Not just possible but probable.

Do they make the trade to flip him?

That just sounds like way too much risk to trade to flip.

Better off keeping the guy who is a top defender in the league, a great team guy, no gun (thug videos) issues and shoots 40% from 3.

It isn't just about who is a better player (although Suggs is really close to Morant in EPM in an age-adjusted comparison), it is about who makes the Magic better.

[AaronB]

Understood.

The old “we need a high end player but won’t trade our top 4 guys and have no good picks”.

Sometimes that works out.

I get it.

But I feel like between 3 unprotected 1sts, two lottery picks from last year (Black/Howard) and the ability to absorb another contract with cap space, they should be able to get in on a trade for a guard who can really help them.

And if not, then they can just spend some of their free agency dollars to find upgrades on Fultz and Harris.

Ideally, Black becomes a strong lead guard. I like him a lot, more than Scoot anyway but it’s tough for lead guards to learn OJT in the playoffs. A solid vet (that is not Fultz) for a couple years with Black taking a larger role on the way.

Most Magic fans were up in arms that Coach Mo basically benched Black in favor of Fultz the last 1/3rd of the season. Fultz has had a really bad year and I think Black was out-playing Fultz when the benching occurred.

However, what we now see was that Coach Mo was smarter than the detractors because Fultz has been an important contributor to the last 2 Magic wins over the Cavs.

Sometimes giving veterans minutes is painful.

[JRoy]

The Magic won't trade Suggs for Morant

The takes in this thread are just wow.

Is it straight up Suggs for Morant? Then the Magic would be fools not to make that trade.

Why would the Magic want a guy who takes the ball out of Franz and Paolo's hands?

A guy who shoots 30% from 3 (27% this year) and is a below average defender (EPM).

A guy coming off a severe shoulder injury. Will that reduce the 3 point % even more? Not just possible but probable.

Do they make the trade to flip him because Suggs is a much better fit for the team?

That just sounds like way too much risk to trade to flip.

Better off keeping the guy who is a top defender in the league, a great team guy, no gun (thug videos) issues and shoots 40% from 3.

It isn't just about who is a better player (although Suggs is really close to Morant in EPM in an age-adjusted comparison), it is about who makes the Magic better.

I get it.

Morant would transform ORL but I can understand wanting to keep the guy you drafted and developed into the fine role player he is.

When it comes to pay him and he commands $25 million + a year ORL will have to make a decision.

And picking this year to compare the two is an
interesting choice.

[AaronB]

Is it straight up Suggs for Morant? Then the Magic would be fools not to make that trade.

Why would the Magic want a guy who takes the ball out of Franz and Paolo's hands?

A guy who shoots 30% from 3 (27% this year) and is a below average defender (EPM).

A guy coming off a severe shoulder injury. Will that reduce the 3 point % even more? Not just possible but probable.

Do they make the trade to flip him because Suggs is a much better fit for the team?

That just sounds like way too much risk to trade to flip.

Better off keeping the guy who is a top defender in the league, a great team guy, no gun (thug videos) issues and shoots 40% from 3.

It isn't just about who is a better player (although Suggs is really close to Morant in EPM in an age-adjusted comparison), it is about who makes the Magic better.

I get it.

Morant would transform ORL but I can understand wanting to keep the guy you drafted and developed into the fine role player he is.

When it comes to pay him and he commands $25 million + a year ORL will have to make a decision.

And picking this year to compare the two is an
interesting choice.

I did not pick this year for EPM.

I picked Morant's age 22 season (a couple years ago) with Suggs age 22 season (this year) with EPM.

I did pick this year for 3 point %, but Morant shot 30% last year.

In fact, his 3 point % has decreased in the last 2 years (and it was never very good).

It has gone from not very good to outright awful/

We will see if it improves, but with the severe shoulder injury that is in doubt.

What is not in doubt at 40% 3 point percentage and a top defensive player, Suggs is probably a top 5 3 and D guy in the league and that is more important to the Magic than a guy who needs the ball in his hands.