RealGM

Assumptions:
Neither Kings nor Warriors win the lottery


Kings trade:
Their own 1st
Barnes
Huerter
Lyles

Kings receive:
Jerami Grant
Alex Caruso


A scoring 4 with size, a defensive guard
Fox/Mitchell
Caruso/Monk
Murray
Grant
Sabonis/Len

Blazers trade:
Jerami Grant
ATL 2nd #40

Blazers Recieve:
Barnes
Their 1st back from the Bulls.

Blazers get cap relief, vet presence of a well liked player, and their 1st back, they have 4 picks in this draft, they unload the lowest one.

Bulls trade:
Caruso
POR 1st

Bulls Receive:
Kings 1st
Hawks #40
Lyles

Get a spacing PF, a lottery 1st instead of POR 1st which likely be a 2nd.


Pistons:
Huerter for fake 2nd
Floor spacer on friendly contract.

interesting for Bulls, but I think they can get a bit more for Caruso
Any way to throw at least one more second to Chi?

The Blazers pick is lotto protected through 2028 so what is their incentive to try to trade for it back?

No reason for Portland to do this. They don't need their lotto protected 1st back. They're not in a place where they're trading their 1sts anytime soon. It's effectively a fake 1st rd pick. They like Jerami and Jerami seems happy in Portland. Portland likely needs to cut 6-10 million in salary (depending on what draft picks they use). No need to move Grant for this. Much more likely that Brogdon, Thybulle, Rob Williams, or even Simons is moved before Grant is used just to cut salary.

BK_2020 wrote:The Blazers pick is lotto protected through 2028 so what is their incentive to try to trade for it back?

That's the valuation assigned for Grant, cap relief and protected 1st, it just happens to be Blazers pick.
I had his value less than the Kings pick, so it was broken into Caruso and Blazers 1st.

The Bulls do it, I don't know how much of a stretch Lyles is they could use a tall, defender rebounder more but he's expiring and there if Torrey Craig opts out.

BK_2020 wrote:The Blazers pick is lotto protected through 2028 so what is their incentive to try to trade for it back?

They're trading hands are tied. They cannot trade this year's pick because they could owe their 2025 pick depending on their record, they can't trade any future picks because they do not know what year they could have to convey their pick to CHI. If another team came to them with the greatest deal to take the salary they want to move for picks and players but wanted a future pick in return, they can't do it.

THAT'S why they are the team with the most incentive to make a deal for it from the Bulls.

Pass for POR.

That POR pick is likely to be a SRP.

ChettheJet wrote:The Bulls do it, I don't know how much of a stretch Lyles is they could use a tall, defender rebounder more but he's expiring and there if Torrey Craig opts out.

BK_2020 wrote:The Blazers pick is lotto protected through 2028 so what is their incentive to try to trade for it back?

They're trading hands are tied. They cannot trade this year's pick because they could owe their 2025 pick depending on their record, they can't trade any future picks because they do not know what year they could have to convey their pick to CHI. If another team came to them with the greatest deal to take the salary they want to move for picks and players but wanted a future pick in return, they can't do it.

THAT'S why they are the team with the most incentive to make a deal for it from the Bulls.

Actually no, they have no incentive at all because if you are the Blazers why are you trading future picks?

ChettheJet wrote:The Bulls do it, I don't know how much of a stretch Lyles is they could use a tall, defender rebounder more but he's expiring and there if Torrey Craig opts out.

BK_2020 wrote:The Blazers pick is lotto protected through 2028 so what is their incentive to try to trade for it back?

They're trading hands are tied. They cannot trade this year's pick because they could owe their 2025 pick depending on their record, they can't trade any future picks because they do not know what year they could have to convey their pick to CHI. If another team came to them with the greatest deal to take the salary they want to move for picks and players but wanted a future pick in return, they can't do it.

THAT'S why they are the team with the most incentive to make a deal for it from the Bulls.

POR is in no position to trade future picks.

POR needs to be acquiring more picks, if anything, for more chances at a franchise level player.

Strongly disagree with this assessment.

I like both fits together for Sac, but think dialing the value in is easier for just one. Or one at a time. Not seeing the reason to make it a three way deal, and valuing the own pick thing back gets played up a lot on here in ways that never make either team happy or match deals we have seen.

Trade for our future pick so that we might maybe be able to... Trade away a future pick? Isn't that kind of circular?

I'm happy keeping our GMs hands tied from trading away any more future picks while we rebuild, so if missing out on a Grant for Barnes swap is the price to pay then so be it.

I would love this for the Kings, and would add to it if necessary to get it done.

Depending on how free agency goes, Detroit should do this

This is a yes for Sac. I can’t see how Monte turns it down.

BK_2020 wrote:The Blazers pick is lotto protected through 2028 so what is their incentive to try to trade for it back?

POR has the right to swap its 2028 1st round pick, protected for selections 15-30 if POR has not conveyed a 1st round pick to CHI by 2027, for MIL's 2028 1st round pick [MIL-PHX-POR, 9/27/2023]

Source: https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/portland-trail-blazers/25/draft-picks

Part of the Dame trade was that we get a future pick swap with Milwaukee in '28, only if we haven't conveyed a 1st round pick to CHI by 2027. Kind of a strange twist on the pick protections, but I think that's incentive enough to make this deal. Or at least it's close.

I'd do it, but I don't think Caruso should be the target. We have our defensive 2 in Keon Ellis, I've seen enough to want to hand him the keys to the starting role next year.

Andre 2999 wrote:

BK_2020 wrote:The Blazers pick is lotto protected through 2028 so what is their incentive to try to trade for it back?

POR has the right to swap its 2028 1st round pick, protected for selections 15-30 if POR has not conveyed a 1st round pick to CHI by 2027, for MIL's 2028 1st round pick [MIL-PHX-POR, 9/27/2023]

Source: https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/portland-trail-blazers/25/draft-picks

Part of the Dame trade was that we get a future pick swap with Milwaukee in '28, only if we haven't conveyed a 1st round pick to CHI by 2027. Kind of a strange twist on the pick protections, but I think that's incentive enough to make this deal. Or at least it's close.

I don't think the Blazers have to worry about making the playoffs before 2028.

Theres an interesting wrinkle for POR in that if their pick to CHI doesn't convey until 2028, they lose out on their 2028 swap with Milwaukee. So there would be at least some value in getting it back if they don't think they'll be good for a while. But, I think they'll want back more for Grant.

I would agree Portland doesn't really require to take back that 1st. That's not really getting a first for Grant. If that were to "become 2nds" then it would be terrible.

Just split it into 2 trades. But then would the Bulls do it? If they don't then I guess that shows the true value of that Portland 1st.
Caruso for Lyles/'25 Port 2nd/'25 Sac 2nd

Kings
Barnes/Huerter/#13 For Grant

Blazers:
Grant/#40 for #13/Barnes/Top 55 Prot 2nd

Pistons:
Top 55 Prot 2nd for Huerter/#40

BK_2020 wrote:

Andre 2999 wrote:

BK_2020 wrote:The Blazers pick is lotto protected through 2028 so what is their incentive to try to trade for it back?

POR has the right to swap its 2028 1st round pick, protected for selections 15-30 if POR has not conveyed a 1st round pick to CHI by 2027, for MIL's 2028 1st round pick [MIL-PHX-POR, 9/27/2023]

Source: https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/portland-trail-blazers/25/draft-picks

Part of the Dame trade was that we get a future pick swap with Milwaukee in '28, only if we haven't conveyed a 1st round pick to CHI by 2027. Kind of a strange twist on the pick protections, but I think that's incentive enough to make this deal. Or at least it's close.

I don't think the Blazers have to worry about making the playoffs before 2028.

I think it's hard to predict what will happen over the next 4 seasons. Since 1977, the Blazers longest stretch of not making the playoffs was 5 years (2004-2008). We're at 3 years in a row right now.

Will the Blazers make the playoffs next year? Certainly not. In the 25-26 season? Highly unlikely. But beyond that, I don't think anyone can make a realistic prediction with any degree of certainty.