The Jazz gotta move Lauri

[jayjaysee]

Yeah, Presti trading for Lauri at the draft and renegotiating him in January, similar to the Sabonis contract, is my favorite. But I don’t expect it to happen.

[psman2]

He would be a nice addition for Memphis but I don't think we want to carry 4 max contracts into the future (JJJ will get one or close to it). I think we take the more balanced approach around our main 3.

Plus I do agree with Hartford that there will be teams wanting him now for his small cap charge to help build out a roster versus when he is fully maxed and doesn't offer the same flexibility. Does that mean his return will be less when he is maxed out and traded in a year? I think the bidders will change, some will fall away while others will be in now that he locked in long term, I think the return will be likely similar either way. But with the Jazz likely choosing to half tank again with Lauri, it might be better to just go full tank and the internal odds improvement on their own pick would lead me to want to move off of him now if the trade value is good enough.

[babyjax13]

I think moving Lauri before he is extended and again trade eligible makes more sense for Utah than waiting. The ability to tank harder alone should be worth the 'extra' an extended Lauri can return.

And I'm not sold Lauri doesn't get a higher offer as is versus later.
Philly should offer more for him now, as now it could be a big 4 of Embiid/Maxey/Lauri/max FA. Waiting a year means giving up one of the 3 others most likely for the cap math, as well as another year of Embiid's prime.
LAL should offer more now for same reasons with fitting with Lebron/AD. And honestly, if i'm OKC I offer at least as much now knowing I can have him for a year to integrate etc.

Philadelphia can't offer any of their own picks until 2029 because of the 2025 and 2027 picks they've traded. Otherwise they have the 2028 LAC 1st. I don't see a team waiting 3 years for the return on their star player and I don't think what Philly can offer is likely better than what an extended Lauri is worth. I'm perfectly happy to get a boatload for him unexpected, but I don't think many teams would be willing to take that risk.

I just fully disagree with the entire premise of that. If you are trading Lauri, honestly you should be going for as much pick variance and long dated unprotected picks as possible. You very likely aren't getting close unprotected picks that will also be good (I guess maybe OKC?), because the teams that will have high picks are usually bad and not in the market for win now help.
And Utah would really need to hit on a cornerstone player before they need extra picks and help, and that can take multiple dips in the draft to get lotto luck.

All in and ignoring what draft expert says what about what year, I would be prioritizing say 2029 over 2026 for Utah is full on tanking and trading Lauri (I know everyone supposedly loves 2025 so I wrote 2026 even as I said ignoring draft relative strength).

As for what Philly can offer, they obviously can offer a pick of their own before 2029. They can offer 2024 pick 16.
Course, I'm not really sure why getting a pick from a team that would have Embiid Maxey max fa and Lauri in 2025 would be all that attractive, but you are right they couldn't. That said, they could get a swap on Philly's pick if it is in the top 6 somehow, if somehow what you are banking on is Philly be awful despite the trade. Similarly for 2026 swap if Philly is in the top 6. Or if Philly isn't in the top 6 and wasn't in the top 6 in 2025 either.

All in the Philly max offer has a lot more than you seem to be suggesting imo. There are different ways to slice it with a '31 pick and playing with '29 etc but something like:
2024 pick 16
2025 swap (only around if Philly is bottom 6)
2026 swap (around entirely if Philly was top 24 in '24, or bottom 6 two years in a row)
2026 worst of a bunch of LAC, Hou and OKC
2027 swap if Philly is bottom 8
2028 best of LAC and Phi unprotected. If Phi is bottom 8 in '27 and not bottom 8 in '28 this would just be LAC unprotected.
2029 swap of best of Phi and LAC with LAC top 3 protected
2030 unprotected
2031 swap unprotected

Gives a bunch of unprotected picks and swaps, as well as a mid and a likely late pick. I can look up where I did it differently, but I believe it can be 5 picks with 3 unprotected iirc or more like above.

Either way, I think Philly absolutely has more than the value of Lauri personally, but even if the Philly future and the LAC future are so believed in that they don't, I think the basic premises remain that:
1) trading Lauri now will return roughly as much as later
2) trading Lauri now will allow better tanking
3) the return for trading Lauri should focus on future assets versus more current assets, all things equal.

Philly has no good prospects to trade. The distant firsts are valuable, but other teams have those and we also have a bunch. If we trade Lauri I see it being for a package that at least includes a good prospect that has already shown something (e.g., Cason Wallace) or a high pick. I don't think Philly has some overwhelming offer to put on the table, nor do I think other teams are going to prefer the risk of a free agent to the certainty of that same player locked up unless they have no other way to manage the finances of a trade.

[Cappy_Smurf]

I think moving Lauri before he is extended and again trade eligible makes more sense for Utah than waiting. The ability to tank harder alone should be worth the 'extra' an extended Lauri can return.

There's an 8% difference in odds for the #1 pick where Utah stands this Year(#8) than being the worst team in the league. They are already considerably worse than they've been over the last 2 seasons. Dumping Lauri IMO means the difference of a couple of ping pong balls. People really overrate the difference in odds from where the team is now and being worst in the league.

As long as Lauri isn't forcing his way out, he will stay in Utah. The FO doesn't want a rebuild that lasts 5+ years. They want to be back in the playoffs sooner than later, and trading Lauri sets their timeline back.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I think moving Lauri before he is extended and again trade eligible makes more sense for Utah than waiting. The ability to tank harder alone should be worth the 'extra' an extended Lauri can return.

There's an 8% difference in odds for the #1 pick where Utah stands this Year(#8) than being the worst team in the league. They are already considerably worse than they've been over the last 2 seasons. Dumping Lauri IMO means the difference of a couple of ping pong balls. People really overrate the difference in odds from where the team is now and being worst in the league.

As long as Lauri isn't forcing his way out, he will stay in Utah. The FO doesn't want a rebuild that lasts 5+ years. They want to be back in the playoffs sooner than later, and trading Lauri sets their timeline back.

It's going to be extremely hard to become a contender in the next five years regardless because Ainge doesn't want to overpay in trades and you have to overpay for a star on a long-term deal unless he demands a trade (and if he demands a trade, Utah will not be an acceptable option for them...)

Tanking is not very useful, it's just that finding a #1 will probably take 5-7 years unless Sexton somehow becomes Jalen Brunson next year.

Like, the Jazz will ask the Hawks for Trae Young this summer and the Hawks will respond by asking for Walker Kessler and six firsts at the minimum and I don't think the Jazz would ever do that.

[Bornstellar]

I feel like he is the exact kind of PF you would want next to Wemby. But I doubt Ainge is giving him up for nothing less than a king's ransom.

If Ainge wanted a young player with potential I'm all for trading Vassell + a couple 1sts for Lauri though

[SkyHook]

I think moving Lauri before he is extended and again trade eligible makes more sense for Utah than waiting. The ability to tank harder alone should be worth the 'extra' an extended Lauri can return.

There's an 8% difference in odds for the #1 pick where Utah stands this Year(#8) than being the worst team in the league. They are already considerably worse than they've been over the last 2 seasons. Dumping Lauri IMO means the difference of a couple of ping pong balls. People really overrate the difference in odds from where the team is now and being worst in the league.

As long as Lauri isn't forcing his way out, he will stay in Utah. The FO doesn't want a rebuild that lasts 5+ years. They want to be back in the playoffs sooner than later, and trading Lauri sets their timeline back.

It's going to be extremely hard to become a contender in the next five years regardless because Ainge doesn't want to overpay in trades and you have to overpay for a star on a long-term deal unless he demands a trade (and if he demands a trade, Utah will not be an acceptable option for them...)

Tanking is not very useful, it's just that finding a #1 will probably take 5-7 years unless Sexton somehow becomes Jalen Brunson next year.

Like, the Jazz will ask the Hawks for Trae Young this summer and the Hawks will respond by asking for Walker Kessler and six firsts at the minimum and I don't think the Jazz would ever do that.

Nightmare fuel, regardless of what the Jazz would give up in such a deal.

[AingesBurner]

What would a lakers deal look like

Non existent… lakers have no tasty assets.

[AingesBurner]

I think moving Lauri before he is extended and again trade eligible makes more sense for Utah than waiting. The ability to tank harder alone should be worth the 'extra' an extended Lauri can return.

There's an 8% difference in odds for the #1 pick where Utah stands this Year(#8) than being the worst team in the league. They are already considerably worse than they've been over the last 2 seasons. Dumping Lauri IMO means the difference of a couple of ping pong balls. People really overrate the difference in odds from where the team is now and being worst in the league.

As long as Lauri isn't forcing his way out, he will stay in Utah. The FO doesn't want a rebuild that lasts 5+ years. They want to be back in the playoffs sooner than later, and trading Lauri sets their timeline back.

This is correct. Lauri can live with being bad for another year on the max. Hell, Ryan just brought him a whole lot of Finnish friends.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I think moving Lauri before he is extended and again trade eligible makes more sense for Utah than waiting. The ability to tank harder alone should be worth the 'extra' an extended Lauri can return.

There's an 8% difference in odds for the #1 pick where Utah stands this Year(#8) than being the worst team in the league. They are already considerably worse than they've been over the last 2 seasons. Dumping Lauri IMO means the difference of a couple of ping pong balls. People really overrate the difference in odds from where the team is now and being worst in the league.

As long as Lauri isn't forcing his way out, he will stay in Utah. The FO doesn't want a rebuild that lasts 5+ years. They want to be back in the playoffs sooner than later, and trading Lauri sets their timeline back.

This is correct. Lauri can live with being bad for another year on the max. Hell, Ryan just brought him a whole lot of Finnish friends.

Okay, so we do the same thing again (compete until trade deadline and then tank)

And then Luka demands a trade to the Spurs.

... And then what (then we trade Markkanen and Kessler and hope to eventually hit on a superstar with one of our many picks from 2025 to 2029).

[AingesBurner]

There's an 8% difference in odds for the #1 pick where Utah stands this Year(#8) than being the worst team in the league. They are already considerably worse than they've been over the last 2 seasons. Dumping Lauri IMO means the difference of a couple of ping pong balls. People really overrate the difference in odds from where the team is now and being worst in the league.

As long as Lauri isn't forcing his way out, he will stay in Utah. The FO doesn't want a rebuild that lasts 5+ years. They want to be back in the playoffs sooner than later, and trading Lauri sets their timeline back.

This is correct. Lauri can live with being bad for another year on the max. Hell, Ryan just brought him a whole lot of Finnish friends.

Okay, so we do the same thing again (compete until trade deadline and then tank)

And then Luka demands a trade to the Spurs.

... And then what (then we trade Markkanen and Kessler and hope to eventually hit on a superstar with one of our many picks from 2025 to 2029).

How are we going to compete? Clarkson is likely gone this summer… You assume that Luka demands a trade to the Spurs and you assume they have the assets to trade for him.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The Spurs have much better assets than the Jazz and the Spurs are a much more appealing destination than the Jazz.

Luka is not going to the Jazz unless the Spurs just splurge and can't afford him and Luka still wants out of Dallas.

[Donuts83]

What these posts dont understand is that Lauri is a free agent after this year. He has all the leverage. He can choose where he wants to go. So how are you going to sell him on a going to another rebuilding team. Hes already 27 lol

[BlazersBroncos]

Still think the OKC package (Giddey + Dieng + #12 + 4 future FRP) is a tremendous haul for UTA and likely the best deal they could get.

[Xman]

I posted at the trade deadline that he was at max value (due to contract issues) and that UTA should cash out then. Still, he is good - just a question of who is willing to pay him.

Still, I think the alure of ATL or PHX picks might be enough for Ainge

Markky and Sexton for Simmons, picks (PHX x 3) and DAL 2029.
- Ainge likes the picks way off so . . .

Or

Markky and (who SA wants - Collins? Hendrix? George? Sexton?) - for picks [2025&27 ATL, 2025 CHA &CHI (both protected)]
- nice thing on this one is that 2025 is a strong draft so more shots at Flagg or Ace for Ainge.

or

something crazy - -
SA gets - Hendrix, CWallace, Dieng, KGeorge, Clowney, #12
OKC gets - Cam (or Mikal), KJohnson and to keep adding to its 2029 2nds rounders [SA, LAC, NO, BKN, DAL, PHX, MEM, UTA - so add eight more to the six it already has - this is sort of a joke but would be funny to watch]
BKN gets - Markky, JCollins, Sexton, Giddey, #8
UTA gets Simmons, picks [2025&27&29 PHX, 2029 DAL, 2025&27 ATL, 2025 CHA &CHI (both protected), 2025 PHI&MIA firsts (both protected), UTA protected first back from OKC]
- pick value may be off a little - so might need Mikal to OKC instead of Cam or even Markky -
- - SA cashes future picks for prospects now. Get Pop to working them now.
- OKC adds two strong pieces in its weakest spot. Only giving up protected picks and backups so will still have .
- BKN skips the rebuild year it is headed to next year. Adds a lot of talent now.
- UTA gives up a ton (Hendrix, KGeorge, #8, Markky, Sexton, Collins - might pull back George or Hendrix if either is seen as major). But, gets an expiring in Simmons. Plus, a ton of picks - especially in 2025. In 2025, UTA would have its own, CLE, MINN, ATL, PHX, protected possibles (MIA/CHA/CHI/PHI). Plus, future picks especially in odd years.

[babyjax13]

I feel like he is the exact kind of PF you would want next to Wemby. But I doubt Ainge is giving him up for nothing less than a king's ransom.

If Ainge wanted a young player with potential I'm all for trading Vassell + a couple 1sts for Lauri though

That's the kind of deal I'd at least consider. Vassell is a nice fit with George (or literally anyone if George is not a long-term fit) and San Antonio has a ton of good picks - I am sure a price could be agreed to.

[jayjaysee]

Markky and Sexton for Simmons, picks (PHX x 3) and DAL 2029.
- Ainge likes the picks way off so . . ..

I think Brooklyn would pass on adding value to get Sexton here. Theyd have to be hoping on Mitchell joining Claxton/Lauri/Bridges. And I think adding Lauri would really add to the potential of Mitchell ending up in Brooklyn via trade..

No idea what the value breakdown was, but I agree Ainge would love to get those Phoenix picks..

[AingesBurner]

The Spurs have much better assets than the Jazz and the Spurs are a much more appealing destination than the Jazz.

Luka is not going to the Jazz unless the Spurs just splurge and can't afford him and Luka still wants out of Dallas.

Have you lived or been to San Antonio? Who’s the coach? The old man that yells at clouds will be gone soon. I think you think you know more than what you do.

Luka will go the team willing to pay the most.

[babyjax13]

The Spurs have much better assets than the Jazz and the Spurs are a much more appealing destination than the Jazz.

Luka is not going to the Jazz unless the Spurs just splurge and can't afford him and Luka still wants out of Dallas.

Have you lived or been to San Antonio? Who’s the coach? The old man that yells at clouds will be gone soon. I think you think you know more than what you do.

Luka will go the team willing to pay the most.

Which will not be Utah because OKC and San Antonio have better assets.

[AingesBurner]

The Spurs have much better assets than the Jazz and the Spurs are a much more appealing destination than the Jazz.

Luka is not going to the Jazz unless the Spurs just splurge and can't afford him and Luka still wants out of Dallas.

Have you lived or been to San Antonio? Who’s the coach? The old man that yells at clouds will be gone soon. I think you think you know more than what you do.

Luka will go the team willing to pay the most.

Which will not be Utah because OKC and San Antonio have better assets.

You don’t know that either… Utah could have a top 3 pick in 2025 (the year Luka is most likely traded), and OKC will be a top 3 in the west and if Wemby is as good as people say he is, San Antonio will be at the end of the lottery or out of it. You’re only looking at the here and now.