Instant Reaction: What Do The Heat Do This Off-Season?

[HadAnEffectHere]

Jaquez Jr being 23 years old really needs to inform a lot more with regards to his trade value.

Yes, every part of him as an asset needs to be taken into account.

1) Positive impact on winning in Year 1
2) Under rookie contract control for 3 more seasons, then RFA status
3) Good size at a valuable position [Wing]
4) Even with a slightly underwhelming shooting season from 3, he was exactly league average at scoring. Bump him up to 34% [Less than 2% bump] and he is above league average efficiency.
5) Related to point 4, his 32% Corner 3 WILL improve. He brings that up and bam, his efficiency sky-rockets.

JJJ has clear positive, good value, and is good enough to be one of the major pieces a trade for a high-level starting player in the NBA.

However, if I were Miami, I wouldn't look to trade JJJ. His skill-set, contract situation and size create an excellent piece for a team wanting to contend over the next half-decade. Who wants to be competing for the next 5+ years? Miami Heat.

Miami is in a similar situation as the Lakers [2024, 2029 and 2031 1sts available and a PF/C duo with weaker guard/wing play], except I like JJJ more than Reaves moving forward [I also like Jovic moving forward as a wing].

Jaquez Jr shot 32% from three in college over four seasons. The idea that he's very likely to become a shooter is hugely doubtful and he has very limited upside and lower likelihood of becoming a shooter because he's shot poorly over so many years. His appeal is that he can kind of play right now at a very cheap value which would be appealing to... The Miami Heat.

Like, Jaquez Jr has massively more value to the Heat than the Jazz. The Jazz have no need at all for a potentially league average starter, they already have three young guys they're hoping become league average starters and have no interesting picks or high upside prospects. They're well under the cap as well whereas the Heat are salary ****.

I just don't see the appeal of any limited upside asset to the Jazz. They already have so many ehh picks and prospects that adding all of Miami's mountain of ehhh gives them nothing.

I also disagree that Herro has positive trade value, he's always hurt.

Like, what does this Jazz core ever do

Keyonte
Jaquez
Hendricks
Kessler

A billion mediocre picks

Probably nothing ever? Is there a single potentially above average starter there?

[Colbinii]

Jaquez Jr being 23 years old really needs to inform a lot more with regards to his trade value.

Yes, every part of him as an asset needs to be taken into account.

1) Positive impact on winning in Year 1
2) Under rookie contract control for 3 more seasons, then RFA status
3) Good size at a valuable position [Wing]
4) Even with a slightly underwhelming shooting season from 3, he was exactly league average at scoring. Bump him up to 34% [Less than 2% bump] and he is above league average efficiency.
5) Related to point 4, his 32% Corner 3 WILL improve. He brings that up and bam, his efficiency sky-rockets.

JJJ has clear positive, good value, and is good enough to be one of the major pieces a trade for a high-level starting player in the NBA.

However, if I were Miami, I wouldn't look to trade JJJ. His skill-set, contract situation and size create an excellent piece for a team wanting to contend over the next half-decade. Who wants to be competing for the next 5+ years? Miami Heat.

Miami is in a similar situation as the Lakers [2024, 2029 and 2031 1sts available and a PF/C duo with weaker guard/wing play], except I like JJJ more than Reaves moving forward [I also like Jovic moving forward as a wing].

Jaquez Jr shot 32% from three in college over four seasons. The idea that he's very likely to become a shooter is hugely doubtful and he has very limited upside and lower likelihood of becoming a shooter because he's shot poorly over so many years. His appeal is that he can kind of play right now at a very cheap value which would be appealing to... The Miami Heat.

Like, Jaquez Jr has massively more value to the Heat than the Jazz. The Jazz have no need at all for a potentially league average starter, they already have three young guys they're hoping become league average starters and have no interesting picks or high upside prospects. They're well under the cap as well whereas the Heat are salary ****.

I just don't see the appeal of any limited upside asset to the Jazz. They already have so many ehh picks and prospects that adding all of Miami's mountain of ehhh gives them nothing.

I also disagree that Herro has positive trade value, he's always hurt.

I don't really care how the Utah Jazz value JJJ.

RE Value: JJJ is a valuable piece to a team trying to win now and his value scales incredibly well the more a team wants to win [and the more a team needs a good contributor at a cheap cost].

RE Shooting: I don't think a 2% jump in efficiency is preposterous. There is no reason to believe JJJ is going to stay a 32% corner 3P shooter. He wasn't a corner 3P shooter in college and this is likely the first year he practiced the shot with regularity since he was either on-ball or cutting in college.

[Colbinii]

I'm not really focused on or caring about the Utah Jazz when discussing the Miami Heat off-season. Lauri Markkanen isn't a realistic target for Miami and I'd rather focus on this thread and the Miami Heat than de-rail it into a "How would Utah value Miami's assets".

[HadAnEffectHere]

I'm mostly responding to a Jaquez Jr for Lauri trade idea.

Jaquez Jr just doesn't have very much value that would justify a trade for a star as the team trading a star probably wants players with upside.

[Colbinii]

I'm mostly responding to a Jaquez Jr for Lauri trade idea.

Jaquez Jr just doesn't have very much value that would justify a trade for a star as the team trading a star probably wants players with upside.

I agree 100%. Miami only deals JJJ for a star, so JJJ is a weird "untradeable" player, where he fits so perfectly with what Miami is trying to do that to trade for him would require an overpay [A Star].

[Texas Chuck]

I'm confused why teams don't want rotation caliber players making no money for 3 years. I mean that's if we accept the absurd premise that he can't improve from here because he is all of 23 years old.

Might want to check out the career of one Steve Nash who wasn't even a good player until 26 but by 32 was a 2 time MVP and the best offensive player in the world.

Or just on the current Heat, might check out Jimmy Butler another older rookie with supposed limited upside.

Or just for giggles Lauri Markannen who struggled to get offers as a FA coming off his rookie contract but now just one year of him under contract is so valuable we couldn't possibly accept all-rookie talent as a part of a package.

[OriAr]

Blow it up.
EVERYONE should be on the table, even Bam if they get the right offer for him.
The Heat's roster problems can't be solved by just one or two trades, they need a full on open heart surgery and that's the kind of thing you can do only when you blow it up and get a few top draft picks.
Spurs resisted embracing the tank until they did and got rewarded the ultimate reward for doing so, if the Spurs can commit to a full rebuild why can't the Heat? One of Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Cameron Boozer or AJ Dybantsa would be the new main guy in Miami and usher in a new era.
This Heat core is just about done.

[oldncreaky]

I'm confused why teams don't want rotation caliber players making no money for 3 years. I mean that's if we accept the absurd premise that he can't improve from here because he is all of 23 years old.

Might want to check out the career of one Steve Nash who wasn't even a good player until 26 but by 32 was a 2 time MVP and the best offensive player in the world.

Or just on the current Heat, might check out Jimmy Butler another older rookie with supposed limited upside.

Or just for giggles Lauri Markannen who struggled to get offers as a FA coming off his rookie contract but now just one year of him under contract is so valuable we couldn't possibly accept all-rookie talent as a part of a package.

Agree. JJJ should be very appealing to playoff teams that are financially constrained by the aprons but have little depth. Milwaukee and Phoenix pop immediately to mind.

Utah isn't a fit as others have said.

[BlazersBroncos]

The best hope is that Donovan demands a move to MIA (Ideally quietly unlike Dame) and they manage to snag him for something like Herro + JJJ + Duncan + 2030 FRP UNP + rights to guy picked at #16 + a swap or two.

Then sign a MLE guy and some ring chasers.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I'm confused why teams don't want rotation caliber players making no money for 3 years. I mean that's if we accept the absurd premise that he can't improve from here because he is all of 23 years old.

Might want to check out the career of one Steve Nash who wasn't even a good player until 26 but by 32 was a 2 time MVP and the best offensive player in the world.

Or just on the current Heat, might check out Jimmy Butler another older rookie with supposed limited upside.

Or just for giggles Lauri Markannen who struggled to get offers as a FA coming off his rookie contract but now just one year of him under contract is so valuable we couldn't possibly accept all-rookie talent as a part of a package.

Jaquez was way worse than Walker Kessler as a rookie and Kessler has pretty minimal value.

"But he has more positional value!" not really unless he learns how to shoot and it's been five years with not great results!

[jayjaysee]

I know I should let it die, but this question goes with the overall thread..

What is the best “youth” asset a team would pay for JJJ? If Miami needs his value to go get a star..

Is it Brooklyn with one of their distant high variance firsts? Could be a loss trading a starting level player locked up so cheap for multiple years for one asset, but seems a gamble a rebuilding team might take..

What about the 2024 draft? I’d have him worth more than 10 or 13, but I think Atl/Sac easily trade their picks for him..

[babyjax13]

What about Herro, JJJ, 2024 first, 2029 first for Lauri?

Assuming Orlando gives up two eh firsts for Herro and Utah likes JJJ as much as some of us do?

JJJ, a high variance first, and 3 meh firsts feels like enough?

I don't love it, which probably means the Cleveland idea needs Miami to kick in 16 and swaps lol

[HadAnEffectHere]

What do people think about Jimmy Butler for Donovan Mitchell as a framework.

[BlazersBroncos]

What do people think about Jimmy Butler for Donovan Mitchell as a framework.

If Mitchell has an extension w/ MIA in place I think the Heat owe a bit here due to the age variance.

But on the other hand adding Mitchell to Bam and their meh side pieces w/ Butler outgoing doesnt really put them in a much better place than they are right now. I suppose they could make a move for a 'fake' #3 like Grant or something.

[HadAnEffectHere]

What do people think about Jimmy Butler for Donovan Mitchell as a framework.

If Mitchell has an extension w/ MIA in place I think the Heat owe a bit here due to the age variance.

But on the other hand adding Mitchell to Bam and their meh side pieces w/ Butler outgoing doesnt really put them in a much better place than they are right now. I suppose they could make a move for a 'fake' #3 like Grant or something.

It still extends their runway a decent bit to hope for another trade.

Butler has 0-2 years left as a superstar whereas Mitchell has a bit longer.

[BK_2020]

They will almost trade for a super star but the deal will fall through because Riley is offering Herro, Duncan Robinson and a pick swap.

[BK_2020]

I'm confused why teams don't want rotation caliber players making no money for 3 years. I mean that's if we accept the absurd premise that he can't improve from here because he is all of 23 years old.

Might want to check out the career of one Steve Nash who wasn't even a good player until 26 but by 32 was a 2 time MVP and the best offensive player in the world.

Or just on the current Heat, might check out Jimmy Butler another older rookie with supposed limited upside.

Or just for giggles Lauri Markannen who struggled to get offers as a FA coming off his rookie contract but now just one year of him under contract is so valuable we couldn't possibly accept all-rookie talent as a part of a package.

Teams want rotation-calibre players making no money for 3 years but not necessarily at the price of an AS-level player.
But I guess since Steve Nash wasn't an All-star before age 27 all players who aren't all-stars before age 27 are Steve Nash.

[brackdan70]

They will almost trade for a super star but the deal will fall through because Riley is offering Herro, Duncan Robinson and a pick swap.

And the dream unfolds…

[Texas Chuck]

But I guess since Steve Nash wasn't an All-star before age 27 all players who aren't all-stars before age 27 are Steve Nash.

Reductive posts are super fun. Feels clever to write them. Like you really got me. Like I really believe they are all future Steve Nashes.

And I made zero comment as to whether a team should make a specific trade. Just that a player such as JJJ tends to hold value for even the Utah Jazz even if one poster knows his exact career trajectory and that it sucks.

[BBallFreak]

I think they mostly run it back - some tweaks that could be good for them


Trade 1 w/ Chicago:

Miami in: Ayo Dosunmu

Chicago in: Jamie Jaquez Jr and Nikola Jovic

Bulls have a crowded backcourt and a serious lack of size/depth w/ size. 2:1 deal gives Miami a, in my eyes, perfectly complimentary point guard for what they do. Ayo can defend, shoot, and playmaker. Post all-star break Ayo was scoring 17 points per game, with 5 assists and a TS% of 60.


Trade 2 w/ Orlando

Miami in: Jonathan Isaac, ORL 2024 2nd, and 2026 DET 2nd

Orlando in: Tyler Herro

Magic are looking for a young guard. Isaac while oft not available would fit Miami's frontcourt great when he is healthy. He does become a free agent after a season so the seconds are offered as some value if he bolts. Deal also saves Miami a good chunk of cap.


Heat:

Dosunmu/Rozier/Wright
Martin/Richardson
Butler/Robinson
Isaac/HighSmith
Adebayo/Bryant/Love/Robinson

Have fun playing against that team.

I don't get either of these trades.

First, why is Miami trading Jaquez and Jovic for Ayo? He's a nice player but I don't see his value is so great that it gets both those guys from Miami. I mean, Jaime Jaquez put up virtually identical stats as a rookie, is younger, and has more years as a cost controlled asset. I'm not sure I'd trade him, alone for Ayo, much less include our 20 year old starting power forward who also has more years of team control.

As for the second, why is Orlando trading their starting power forward who happens to be a phenomenal defender for Tyler Herro? Herro isn't more durable. I would think the oft mentioned Herro for WCJ and an asset like Denver's first next year is the deal worth doing for both teams.