Anyone Wants a Late 1st for an Expiring?

[shrink]

Very late 1sts are often sold for $3 mil, if teams are selling. MIN has the potential to add four 1st rounders next year -- that's too many.

I'm curious if there are teams out there that have an expiring, and don't need the cap space for a year, when the 2010 Free Agency rolls around that everyone is targeting? I'd like to find something like this:

Expiring for Brian Cardinal ($6.2 mil) + Uta 1st (Top 22 protected) + $3 mil in cash

The price for the 1st is Cardinal's $6.75 mil for 2009. I put $3 mil in to make it a cheaper buy-out, and $3.75 mil seems reasonable for a 1st that might not be on the extreme end of the draft. The key here is cap space for 2009, but he's off the books by the 2010 deadline. Here's the fine print on the pick:

top 22 protected in 2009
top 17 protected in 2010
top 15 protected in 2011
top 16 protected in 2012
top 16 protected in 2013

Anyone want the pick, and in a financial position to do so?

[CellarDoor]

I'd think you would have better luck selling a pick that is definitely coming this year. Especially in the Utah pick instance it's completely reasonable that if they end up with something like the 20th pick this year and Boozer bolts they may not see that pick for many, many years.

[trwi7]

Damon Jones' expiring. Don't know if the salary works out salary wise. If it doesn't we could add Adrian Griffin's non guaranteed contract.

[shrink]

I'd think you would have better luck selling a pick that is definitely coming this year. Especially in the Utah pick instance it's completely reasonable that if they end up with something like the 20th pick this year and Boozer bolts they may not see that pick for many, many years.

That's a good point, but I think its a trend of the NBA that hardly anyone trades unprotected picks these days.

We could give the BOS one for a guaranteed pick -- its Top Three protected, so I'd say that's as good as guaranteed. I don't know if the decrease in value from the probable lower position (though people under-estimate the Jazz) would justify the increase in value because of the security of knowing its this year. I don't care either way.

[CellarDoor]

I'm not talking about an unprotected pick. I'm just talking about something not so heavily protected from a team whose landscape could change drastically next year. The Boston pick wouldn't be a problem I wouldn't imagine.

[shrink]

Damon Jones' expiring. Don't know if the salary works out salary wise. If it doesn't we could add Adrian Griffin's non guaranteed contract.

It works with Griffin, and it looks like MIL has the cap space as well.

I'd do that deal. MIN could even use Damon Jones as a 3rd/2nd PG.

[Darren]

What about that one?

Minny trades: Sebastian Telfair, Brian Cardinal
Mavs trades: Jose Juan Barea, Jerry Stackhouse, and right to Shan Foster

Dallas gets a better backup point. Minny gets servable players in Stack and JJ.
It sounds similar to your original idea.

[eslr]

Kurt Thomas was a useful player and it took two first rounders to dump his contract for cap space. Good luck dumping a worthless player with another year left for a lot less than that.

[loserX]

What about that one?

Minny trades: Sebastian Telfair, Brian Cardinal
Mavs trades: Jose Juan Barea, Jerry Stackhouse, and right to Shan Foster

Dallas gets a better backup point. Minny gets servable players in Stack and JJ.
It sounds similar to your original idea.

Right idea, but Telfair isn't worth that much more than Barea. The Mavs should be able to find a better, or at least less expensive, solution.

[JES12]

I think we can trade Stack for Cardinal without the PGs involved if the pick was a little higher...say #10-#16. Keep the 3 mil because Stack is guaranteed 2 mil next years...use it to buy Stack out next year.

Dallas may still decline because The difference btwn Stack & Brian is multiplied by 2 since we are in the Tax.

[shrink]

Kurt Thomas was a useful player and it took two first rounders to dump his contract for cap space. Good luck dumping a worthless player with another year left for a lot less than that.

Kurt Thomas was traded for immediate salary relief with the TPE that SEA got from Jason Richardson. This creates many differences:

1. Of the 2-3 teams that even were physically able to do this deal, SEA may have been the only team that was willing to trade that much cap space. Expirings are much more common, so there may be more buyers. Second, SEA had the Suns owner over a barrel, because PHO was in the lux -- right now! They really wanted the immediate cap relief because every dollar of Kurt Thomas' deal cost them double. If I recall, Thomas was making $8 mil? (maybe it was $6?). In any case, with the other big contracts Sarver had to pay, he didn't want to have to chuck out $16 mil for Kurt Thomas' services. Limited buyers and an extremely motivated seller (and a greedy owner) led to a bad deal. I don't think the comparisons hold, but I will agree with you on one thing .. Cardinal is worthless.

[shrink]

What about that one?

Minny trades: Sebastian Telfair, Brian Cardinal
Mavs trades: Jose Juan Barea, Jerry Stackhouse, and right to Shan Foster

Dallas gets a better backup point. Minny gets servable players in Stack and JJ.
It sounds similar to your original idea.

I hadn't really thought about DAL since they are over the lux. However, even though PG is a very limited position for MIN (Foye + Telfair + nobody), but I'd do that deal. LoserX may be right about his production, though he's got a good A/T ratio and a cheap contract. However, he can't be traded until Dec. 15th, since his contract is new.

Is Stackhouse completely done though? MIN couldn't play him, but I'm wondering if DAL could squeeze out more value sending him elsewhere. Maybe Stack to CLE, Snow to MIN, and DAL gets a CLE prospect for turning $7 mil in zero-production into $7 mil with a little production and play-off experience.

I'm not sure MIN would give up a higher pick to move just one year of Cardinal. The BOS 1st or UTA 1st is probably all they'd give up, and sit on the MIA Top 10 protected.

[eslr]

Kurt Thomas was a useful player and it took two first rounders to dump his contract for cap space. Good luck dumping a worthless player with another year left for a lot less than that.

Kurt Thomas was traded for immediate salary relief with the TPE that SEA got from Jason Richardson. This creates many differences:

1. Of the 2-3 teams that even were physically able to do this deal, SEA may have been the only team that was willing to trade that much cap space. Expirings are much more common, so there may be more buyers. Second, SEA had the Suns owner over a barrel, because PHO was in the lux -- right now! They really wanted the immediate cap relief because every dollar of Kurt Thomas' deal cost them double. If I recall, Thomas was making $8 mil? (maybe it was $6?). In any case, with the other big contracts Sarver had to pay, he didn't want to have to chuck out $16 mil for Kurt Thomas' services. Limited buyers and an extremely motivated seller (and a greedy owner) led to a bad deal. I don't think the comparisons hold, but I will agree with you on one thing .. Cardinal is worthless.

The cap-space argument is off base. Any team trading an expiring for cardinal is either giving up $7 mill in cap space, or severely limiting their ability to use the MLE. It is a similar financial burden as Thomas was to Seattle.

From a financial standpoint, $3 mill in cash still leaves you with $10 mill of Cardinals contract to pay. So the only way it makes even remote sense is if the expiring you are giving up is entirely useless. I doubt there are many more teams with a worthless $6 mill expiring than there were teams with cap space/trade exception to take Thomas.

[shrink]

The cap-space argument is off base. Any team trading an expiring for cardinal is either giving up $7 mill in cap space, or severely limiting their ability to use the MLE. It is a similar financial burden as Thomas was to Seattle.

Let me say this a different way. If PHO had Kurt Thomas on an $8 mil expiring contract today, there are only two teams in the NBA that could trade him for cap space .. MEM, who is far enough under the salary cap to do so, and DEN, who has that big Trade Exception from the Camby trade to LAC, who WAS that far under the cap. That's it, two buyer.

On the other hand, almost every team in the NBA could offer expirings for Brian Cardinal's $6 mil. Some teams, like NYK, LAL, DAL, DEN, DET, MIA, ATL, POR, CLE, MEM .. heck many teams could offer double that. So the number of buyers is not similar at all.

And I'll assume you understand that MIN is not over the lux, so they aren't paying $12 mil if they can't move Cardinal for rare cap space .. they are simply waiting a year before his deal expires at its normal price.

From a financial standpoint, $3 mill in cash still leaves you with $10 mill of Cardinals contract to pay. So the only way it makes even remote sense is if the expiring you are giving up is entirely useless. I doubt there are many more teams with a worthless $6 mill expiring than there were teams with cap space/trade exception to take Thomas.

This is somewhat true, but let me make two economic points.

1. The time value of the money. Several teams may be sitting on an expiring and not have a financial need for the cap space until 2010. They can let the deal expire and do nothing for a year, or they can use the space to grab a 1st, and still have exactly the same amount of money under the cap when they want it in 2010. Teams wanting cap space in 2010 are probably unlikely to use their MLE.

2. In the NBA, nobody knows how much a late pick is worth.

Oh yeah, we have seen several sold, and they have always been for $3 mil. However, that $3 mil is the maximum allowed under the CBA, and every seller has always gotten the full $3 mil, no matter how late the pick is. All we can tell from the evidence is that a pick is worth AT LEAST $3 mil. Picks are nice because a team gets to lock a young prospect into a contract for four years that may be a big bargain, and they get that chance at low-cost production for more than just one year. If we had an auction, could picks be worth $5 mil? $7 mil? $10? Remember, its the one-time cost, and you can look at it as pro-rating it over the four years, so if he cost you $5 mil plus the salary, you could look at it as still only paying him $3 mil a year (less if you cut him after two years with your team options).

Anyway, I think trying to compare this deal to Kurt Thomas is a tough sell. Kurt's deal was for a rare commodity from a highly motivated seller, and wasn't a particularly good deal to begin with. It doesn't set the market for deals of 2-year player for 1-year players.

[Cruel_Ruin]

How about Mikki Moore? Mikki for Cardinal/Bos 1st straight up would work. Mikki's last year is only partially guarunteed.

[BrooklynBulls]

Lets list every sizeable expiring for this year, likely optouts included (4+mil):

Bibby
Pachulia
Harpring (potentially if he gets pretty injured)
Okur
Boozer
Korver
Anthony Parker
Bobby Jackson
Mikki Moore
Lafrentz
Marquis Daniels
Blake
Outlaw
Andre Miler
Desmond Mason
Joe Smith
Malik Rose
Stromile Swift
Damon Jones
Marion
Walker
Buckner
Odom
Rasho
Artest
Rasheed
Stackhouse
Wallyworld
Eric Snow
Pavlovic
Gooden
Felton

Players that have low enough on-court value to be included in such a deal (speculative but likely accurate):
Harpring
Pachulia
Jackson
Lafrentz
Mason
Rose
Jones
Swift (the glut and reported character issues might make him so)
Walker
Buckner
Rasho
Stackhouse
Wally
Snow

Of those, with team situations condusive to such a trade:
Jackson
Mason
Rose (its a stretch)
Stackhouse (another stretch)
Swift

I think that luxury tax concerns are just too much for NY and Dal to consider this deal. But trading Bobby Jackson or Desmond Mason seems plausible to me. Stromile Swift is possibly only if he's causing problems, but NJ's salary in 09/10 seems perilously close to luxury tax territory as is.

[FutureKnicksGM]

As a knicks fan i would do Malik Rose for Cardinal,BOS 1st,$3million. Rose is solid vet, good locker room guy, which is good for a young team like MIN.

[BrooklynBulls]

As a Knicks fan you may do it. But will Dolan pay that much?

Lets do the math. Cardinal's 6.3 million this year compared to Rose's 7.6 saves the Knicks 2.6 million this year. 3 million more is added. Now they're making 5.6. But subtract double Cardinal's next year, they're losing 7.6 million. 7.6 million for a 25 or worse pick...its a high price.

[Gremz]

Marquis Daniels for Cardinal + late 1st? Not sure if the Pacers would be interested in taking on the extra year, would severly hurt the Granger negotiations, i guess it might be possible though. I wouldn't lean towards the deal, management might though?

[london sonic]

OKC have 3 players that could be considered for a late first especially at deadline that could really make a difference to a contender. Wilcox, Smith and Mason.wonder what offers OKC will get .