Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Spo will unlock Mitchell AND Ingram in contract years and the core 4 will win 2 championships before Jimmy rides off into the sunset.

This is the summer Pat Riley reminds everyone who the fuxk he is

[Kobewade11]

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Whiteside, Winslow, and Waiters:

[greg4012]

I’m very much on board for any and every pursuit that makes Miami better (and allows us to upgrade on Herro). Ingram has warts, but just a year ago he was a pipe dream for us. Playing injured in the playoffs, continued inconsistent fit with Pels/Zion, and the fact that he actively didn’t already seek an extension with Pels puts him in play despite Miami not having the best trade assets.

If we can get Mitchell, sign me the f**k up. If we can’t, I’m excited at the prospect of adding a versatile forward like Ingram who is Bam’s age and is an upgrade on Herro to this team, ESPECIALLY if there’s a way to keep both young bucks.

This looks pretty damn good to me:

Rozier - Wright/Richardson
Butler - Jaquez
Ingram - Highsmith/Jaquez
Jović - Nance/Highsmith
Adebayo - Love/Nance

[MettaWorldPanda]

Herro, Robinson, and pick

For

Ingram and Nance Jr

Perfect trade salary match. Williamson gets his new starting two guard in Herro and much needed shooter in Robinson. Mama Gayle is going to love this trade

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Orlando has to win tmrw to set things in motion

It would be nice but as long as their bounced by the Celtics round 2 it’ll be the same

Agreed, but "first round exit" as the higher seed has a much better ring for our purposes

Haha I’m torn, does Mitchell coming there and making them a top 4 seed back to back season after only being a play in team prior to him and winning a playoff series make them more likely to meet his requests or will they be fine either way helping him out lol? Hes been professional the whole way through and is clearly doing what he can, he’s playing through a bad knee right now too

[dean456]

Shouldn't we be able to trade 3FRPs. I've seen people say we can't trade 2029 because of protections on the 2027 pick.

But the 2025 pick we traded had protections going to 2026 and we were able to trade the 2027 for Rozier so we should then be able to trade the 2024, 2029 and 2031 picks right?

[contract]

Spoiler:

Jimmy isn't Wade but he did take a team heading nowhere to the ECF 3 out of 5 years and the NBA Finals 2 out of 5 years. He also went to Minnesota and got them into the playoffs after missing them 14 straight years.

Butler and Wade got taken out of the starting lineup because they questioned the team's desire to win. Butler wanted to go to a team where the coach would hold everyone accountable, he was happy at first in Minnesota with Thibodeau until he found out Wiggins and Towns were the owner's golden boys and Towns was undermining Thibodeau by going to the owner asking for Thibodeau to be fired because he wasn't the main focal point of the offense with Butler there. Philly.. Butler was open to going back until he was told someone asking another person (he never named the people) if they thought they could control Butler (Jimmy and Brett Butler didn't see eye to eye at all), there's a great interview of Butler talking about not getting anything done in meetings or not even knowing who's in charge to JJ Redick who was a teammate of his at that time. The most telling part of the interview is him talking about Miami, we're in it to win it every year, we're not trying to lose... which speaks to why he's not in Chicago or Minnesota anymore, those teams were prioritizing the younger players over winning.

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He was also completely useless in the playoffs in 2 of those 5 years ... and he wasn't nearly great last season after the Bucks series.

The same could be said of a lot of stars, some never got to their conference finals, let alone 2-3 time and most never have sniffed the finals. If looked at that way he has been worth more than a max like a lot of the top stars are.

But setting all that aside because no one is arguing that Jimmy hasn't been a 2nd tier superstar for years. He's now 35. That's the new reality. Take a good look at the playoff rosters. The oldest stars left standing are Kyrie Irving (just turned 32) and Rudy Gobert (just short of 32). As I've said before, every year beyond age 32 takes you ever closer to creeping NBA death. That doesn't mean that it's impossible to compete with a star in his mid 30s, but it's close to impossible.

In any case, close but no cigar for all of 5 years should not earn you a Kobe contract.

This is where you and I don't see eye to eye on Butler's path forward. I believe he will still be a high-level player in 3 years because of the specific game he plays. His game is built off mostly BBIQ (which shouldn't drop), strength (which he can maintain past his 30s), skill and is working on becoming a better 3pt shooter. If he leaned on quickness to get his shots off that would be an issue unless he had great size for his position which he doesn't. The drop in quickness is why so many smaller players disappear from the NBA early in their 30s, it's the ones with high IQ and now 3pt shooting that can survive with some of their quickness gone.

I see Butler as basically a smaller version of 90% of what LeBron (nobody's LeBron of course) is without the drive to try to show people that he wants to be the top player of all time. Do I think it would be smart to think Butler's going to be a dominate offensive player in the playoffs through the next 3 years, probably not as a #1, but if Miami could get another #1 by that 3rd year, possibly 2nd to push Butler to the #2 spot, I think he'd be one of the better #2 options in the league and with that Miami with Butler, Bam and a that #1 would be contenders.

No matter what, I think Miami should be looking for that MVP level player any year they don't have an MVP candidate. I don't think Butler wants to be a #1, he just wants to make his teammates better and will score if the situation calls for it. This has been one of the reasons I wanted Herro and his potential to be moved in a package before people started to see clearer what that potential could be which probably is (nothing is set in stone) a good scoring 6th man, not a #1 option you can build your offense around. Who knows, at some point maybe Herro limits his bad shots, becomes an efficient SG that really helps a team on a nightly basis, not just every once in a while.

I understand that you're a fan of Jimmy's, but you need to come to terms with this ...

Here's the entire list of players aged 35 or over that played at least 50 games and averaged at least 15 ppg this season.

Kevin Durant (35) - 27.1 ppg
Steph Curry (36) - 26.4 ppg
Lebron James (39) - 25.7 ppg
Bojan Bogdanovic (35) - 15.2 ppg

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?CF=PTS*GE*15:AGE*GE*35:GP*GE*50

And do you want to know what the list looks like when the minimum is changed to 40 games and 13 ppg? It's the exact same list. And three of those guys are literally all time greats. Part of a handful of the best to ever play the game. They had farther to fall from their peak. All three of them are also freaks.

And so that know that it's not just a one year thing ...

Here's the entire list of players aged 35 or over that played at least 50 games and averaged at least 15 ppg for the '22-'23 season.

Steph Curry (35) - 29.4 ppg
Lebron James (38) - 28.9 ppg
Brook Lopez (35) - 15.9 ppg

Here's the entire list of players aged 35 or over that played at least 50 games and averaged at least 15 ppg for the '21-'22 season.

Lebron James (37) - 30.3 ppg

Here's the entire list of players aged 35 or over that played at least 50 games and averaged at least 15 ppg for the '20-'21 season.

Chris Paul (36) - 16.4 ppg


I make lists like this every single offseason. Usually more than once because for some reason people just don't get it. Once you're past 33 years old in the NBA, every year is a dog year.

Strength and BBIQ can't make up for aging. Not for long anyway. The only way that Jimmy is still performing at 37 is if Lebron introduces him to his guy.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Shouldn't we be able to trade 3FRPs. I've seen people say we can't trade 2029 because of protections on the 2027 pick.

But the 2025 pick we traded had protections going to 2026 and we were able to trade the 2027 for Rozier so we should then be able to trade the 2024, 2029 and 2031 picks right?

2029 would have to be amended very much like 2027 was. It would be protected with potential roll over to 2030. With the 2028 still tbd because we still don’t know the outcome of us owing out to OKC next year. If we don’t pay out OKC next year then 2026 becomes unprotected and the 2027 protected Hornets pick rolls over unprotected forcing the what could be potentially traded 2029 pick to 2030 lol.

[dean456]

Shouldn't we be able to trade 3FRPs. I've seen people say we can't trade 2029 because of protections on the 2027 pick.

But the 2025 pick we traded had protections going to 2026 and we were able to trade the 2027 for Rozier so we should then be able to trade the 2024, 2029 and 2031 picks right?

2029 would have to be amended very much like 2027 was. It would be protected with potential roll over to 2030. With the 2028 still tbd because we still don’t know the outcome of us owing out to OKC next year. If we don’t pay out OKC next year then 2026 becomes unprotected and the 2027 protected Hornets pick rolls over unprotected forcing the what could be potentially traded 2029 pick to 2030 lol.

Right, so it would still only be two tradable picks because we can't put similar protections on the 2031 pick past the 7yr rule.

[Lennyzinho]

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Most feasible and logical target for the price

Roto blurb:

According to Forbes Sports’ Evan Sidery, the Pelicans are unlikely to offer Brandon Ingram a contract extension this summer.
Ingram, who struggled in the Pelicans’ first-round loss to Oklahoma City, is due to make a little over $36 million in the final season of his deal. He can sign an extension worth up to $208 million over four years. However, with Pelicans lead executive David Griffin saying during his post-season availability that changes will be made, Saturday’s report could be a sign that New Orleans is open to parting with Ingram if a proper deal can be made. Trey Murphy is also extension eligible, but his price tag is considerably lower than Ingram’s, whose 64 games played in 2023-24 were the most he’s been available for since being traded to New Orleans in 2019. Murphy would have the most to gain regarding fantasy value if Ingram is dealt, depending on the return.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Shouldn't we be able to trade 3FRPs. I've seen people say we can't trade 2029 because of protections on the 2027 pick.

But the 2025 pick we traded had protections going to 2026 and we were able to trade the 2027 for Rozier so we should then be able to trade the 2024, 2029 and 2031 picks right?

2029 would have to be amended very much like 2027 was. It would be protected with potential roll over to 2030. With the 2028 still tbd because we still don’t know the outcome of us owing out to OKC next year. If we don’t pay out OKC next year then 2026 becomes unprotected and the 2027 protected Hornets pick rolls over unprotected forcing the what could be potentially traded 2029 pick to 2030 lol.

Right, so it would still only be two tradable picks because we can't put similar protections on the 2031 pick past the 7yr rule.

Correct. Not a great spot to be in when discussing trying to make a compelling offer for someone like Mitchell. The option for Mitchell only happens if we are able to trade Butler for a healthy pick haul and the filler contracts going to the Cavs.

The core would evolve over night into Bam’s team with Ingram taking over for Butler at the 3 and Mitchell at the 2. Would be a brand new window with players in there mid to late 20’s basically all in their prime.

[Vertical Limit]

I read a rumor on X that Butler is seeking a 2 year 113 million extension. That rumor cant be true, right? First hes got 100 million guaranteed left the next two upcoming season.. second, who the hell in the open market is paying him that much at 35 years old this september? Hes lucky hes got a player option on the final year, because if it was team option he would be out asap as a massive expiring.

I like Butler but the production and age does not warrant any further super max extensions

[Beenie]

If it becomes apparent that Mitch is out of reach, and assuming lebron doesn’t become available, and no surprise players like Fox get put on the trading block, I’d like Mia to kick the tires on either of the Bridges.

A package of picks, JJJ, and salary for Mikal might get Brooklyn’s attention

I was advocating to make a bid for Miles at the deadline and still think he’d be a terrific target

[3ammy3uck3ts]

If it becomes apparent that Mitch is out of reach, and assuming lebron doesn’t become available, and no surprise players like Fox get put on the trading block, I’d like Mia to kick the tires on either of the Bridges.

A package of picks, JJJ, and salary for Mikal might get Brooklyn’s attention

I was advocating to make a bid for Miles at the deadline and still think he’d be a terrific target

That’s a lot for a role player

[twix2500]

Get Mitchell (27 yrs old beginning of his prime) at all cost with Bam (26 yrs old starting the beginning of his prime). Fill in the complimentary players next summer. This is a rebuild not a reload. Maybe keep one of JJJ or Jovic but if they cant oh well. 3 yr rebuild.

PG: Mitchell
SG: ?????
SF:???
PF: ????
Ce: Adebayo

[ZoStrong]

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I'm not against adding one extra year and run it back one more yr w retooled roster, but..

Heat could say we saved Jimmy too! from being known forever as a cancer player, destroying the chemistry wherever he goes. I mean who was he before getting here and rehabilitating his reputation and his place in NBA?

[Rapaz]

Herro, Robinson, and pick

For

Ingram and Nance Jr

Perfect trade salary match. Williamson gets his new starting two guard in Herro and much needed shooter in Robinson. Mama Gayle is going to love this trade

Son, Tyler Herro’s little shrimp stew does nothing for us down here in Louisiana. If yall want to be taken seriously, that package of yours better include a whole hog.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Herro, Robinson, and pick

For

Ingram and Nance Jr

Perfect trade salary match. Williamson gets his new starting two guard in Herro and much needed shooter in Robinson. Mama Gayle is going to love this trade

Son, Tyler Herro’s little shrimp stew does nothing for us down here in Louisiana. If yall want to be taken seriously, that package of yours better include a whole hog.

You already have a whole hog in Zion that likes himself a good Herro. Keep that hog happy mam.

“Tyler is the most underrated player in our class,” Williamson told Kentucky Sports Radio at the time. “He’s a very smooth and skilled scorer, and I feel like it goes unnoticed at times.”

Herro appreciated the kind words from his colleague.

“Right now, Zion is one of the best players in the country. For him to say that, I really appreciate that,” Herro said. “But I’m going to continue to work every day and get better each and every day.”

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

He was also completely useless in the playoffs in 2 of those 5 years ... and he wasn't nearly great last season after the Bucks series.

The same could be said of a lot of stars, some never got to their conference finals, let alone 2-3 time and most never have sniffed the finals. If looked at that way he has been worth more than a max like a lot of the top stars are.

But setting all that aside because no one is arguing that Jimmy hasn't been a 2nd tier superstar for years. He's now 35. That's the new reality. Take a good look at the playoff rosters. The oldest stars left standing are Kyrie Irving (just turned 32) and Rudy Gobert (just short of 32). As I've said before, every year beyond age 32 takes you ever closer to creeping NBA death. That doesn't mean that it's impossible to compete with a star in his mid 30s, but it's close to impossible.

In any case, close but no cigar for all of 5 years should not earn you a Kobe contract.

This is where you and I don't see eye to eye on Butler's path forward. I believe he will still be a high-level player in 3 years because of the specific game he plays. His game is built off mostly BBIQ (which shouldn't drop), strength (which he can maintain past his 30s), skill and is working on becoming a better 3pt shooter. If he leaned on quickness to get his shots off that would be an issue unless he had great size for his position which he doesn't. The drop in quickness is why so many smaller players disappear from the NBA early in their 30s, it's the ones with high IQ and now 3pt shooting that can survive with some of their quickness gone.

I see Butler as basically a smaller version of 90% of what LeBron (nobody's LeBron of course) is without the drive to try to show people that he wants to be the top player of all time. Do I think it would be smart to think Butler's going to be a dominate offensive player in the playoffs through the next 3 years, probably not as a #1, but if Miami could get another #1 by that 3rd year, possibly 2nd to push Butler to the #2 spot, I think he'd be one of the better #2 options in the league and with that Miami with Butler, Bam and a that #1 would be contenders.

No matter what, I think Miami should be looking for that MVP level player any year they don't have an MVP candidate. I don't think Butler wants to be a #1, he just wants to make his teammates better and will score if the situation calls for it. This has been one of the reasons I wanted Herro and his potential to be moved in a package before people started to see clearer what that potential could be which probably is (nothing is set in stone) a good scoring 6th man, not a #1 option you can build your offense around. Who knows, at some point maybe Herro limits his bad shots, becomes an efficient SG that really helps a team on a nightly basis, not just every once in a while.

I understand that you're a fan of Jimmy's, but you need to come to terms with this ...

Spoiler:

Here's the entire list of players aged 35 or over that played at least 50 games and averaged at least 15 ppg this season.

Kevin Durant (35) - 27.1 ppg
Steph Curry (36) - 26.4 ppg
Lebron James (39) - 25.7 ppg
Bojan Bogdanovic (35) - 15.2 ppg

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?CF=PTS*GE*15:AGE*GE*35:GP*GE*50

And do you want to know what the list looks like when the minimum is changed to 40 games and 13 ppg? It's the exact same list. And three of those guys are literally all time greats. Part of a handful of the best to ever play the game. They had farther to fall from their peak. All three of them are also freaks.

And so that know that it's not just a one year thing ...

Here's the entire list of players aged 35 or over that played at least 50 games and averaged at least 15 ppg for the '22-'23 season.

Steph Curry (35) - 29.4 ppg
Lebron James (38) - 28.9 ppg
Brook Lopez (35) - 15.9 ppg

Here's the entire list of players aged 35 or over that played at least 50 games and averaged at least 15 ppg for the '21-'22 season.

Lebron James (37) - 30.3 ppg

Here's the entire list of players aged 35 or over that played at least 50 games and averaged at least 15 ppg for the '20-'21 season.

Chris Paul (36) - 16.4 ppg


I make lists like this every single offseason. Usually more than once because for some reason people just don't get it. Once you're past 33 years old in the NBA, every year is a dog year.

Strength and BBIQ can't make up for aging. Not for long anyway. The only way that Jimmy is still performing at 37 is if Lebron introduces him to his guy.

A couple of things.
- Did you know even with Butler out for a death of a loved one, in his 5 years in Miami he just played his 2nd most regular season games, listening to 5 reasons they seem to think he played in the low to mid 50s which is not the case.
- Butler just played the most minutes per game while in Miami this last season at 34 minutes per game.
- Since the year 2000, Butler put up the #1 calculated ORTG last season for players scoring 20 ppg and at 135 and this year dropped to #8 since 2000 at 129.
- Butler has been care of his body since early in his career which should help him have a longer career than most players.
- Unlike a lot of high-level players, Butler played less than 400 minutes his first year, his 2nd year at age 23 he did start playing 2000+ minutes, so he's put a lot less minutes on his body than most. He's currently at just over 27k minutes in the NBA regular seasons, 4500 playoff minutes. For example, P.George just played his age 33 season (8 months younger than Butler) and has 29k minutes in the NBA regular season and 4400 playoff minutes, so while nearly a year younger has played what equates to an extra season in the NBA.

Since I've followed him and I've been following the NBA for a while now, Butler is one of the few players I'd think should be good into his late 30s if he continues working on staying fit. I wouldn't be surprised if he's one of the few players who could still be a strong rotation player at age 40. He's very much different than most players.

Now, the one thing that is worrisome that anyone would have a valid point with is his injury history and how it won't get better as he ages, this I do understand is an issue.

My main point for Miami... as a team that doesn't tank and tries to win basically every year, it makes zero sense to me to give up on a possible high-level player based on age to just go out and pay for 2 average starting level players. If Miami had a better offensive player than Butler who was younger, absolutely move.

I'm a Butler fan so here's my question to you, why wouldn't I as a fan want to see Butler traded to a team that believes there a contender with Butler vs him staying in Miami? The reason why is, I think this team with Butler is a contender and can become an even stronger contender if they can add an efficient volume scorer which pushes Butler to the 2nd option and Bam to the 3rd option and let those 2 use their energy more towards the defensive end.

[AirP.]

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