Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[lastb1ckman]

Technically we already have a young developmental Center prospect on the roster with Orlando Robinson who’s 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan. Spo never played him cause I genuinely believe he has no interest in playing these types of bigs with Bam. Spo even played Kevin Love at the Center spot cause he valued his outside shooting.

He doesn't play him because he's been bad defensively. Everytime I see him gets bodied in the paint or is a second slow with his reactions. I mean, there was a reason he went undrafted.

[DayofMourning]

Technically we already have a young developmental Center prospect on the roster with Orlando Robinson who’s 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan. Spo never played him cause I genuinely believe he has no interest in playing these types of bigs with Bam. Spo even played Kevin Love at the Center spot cause he valued his outside shooting.

He doesn't play him because he's been bad defensively. Everytime I see him gets bodied in the paint or is a second slow with his reactions. I mean, there was a reason he went undrafted.

Spo gonna have to be a bit more traditional if he wants his players to stop breaking down. There have to be legit big men to funnel offensive players in to. We funnel guys into the smallest dudes on the court. Spo wants to switch everything and wants uber athletic defensive plays from our team full of wings.

Bam can stop everything perimeter in, but if he had a top notch defensive big (2 really) behind him, hed really shine. Our team D would really shine. Players might be able to tone down the accumulation injuries as well.

The team structure has to change.

[lastb1ckman]

Technically we already have a young developmental Center prospect on the roster with Orlando Robinson who’s 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan. Spo never played him cause I genuinely believe he has no interest in playing these types of bigs with Bam. Spo even played Kevin Love at the Center spot cause he valued his outside shooting.

He doesn't play him because he's been bad defensively. Everytime I see him gets bodied in the paint or is a second slow with his reactions. I mean, there was a reason he went undrafted.

Spo gonna have to be a bit more traditional if he wants his players to stop breaking down. There have to be legit big men to funnel offensive players in to. We funnel guys into the smallest dudes on the court. Spo wants to switch everything and wants uber athletic defensive plays from our team full of wings.

Bam can stop everything perimeter in, but if he had a top notch defensive big (2 really) behind him, hed really shine. Our team D would really shine. Players might be able to tone down the accumulation injuries as well.

The team structure has to change.

Adem Bona (AKA Bam-lite) is killing it at the combine, I'd think he'd be wonderful on the heat as a back up C. Hopefully he's still there at 43, he might be playing himself into a 1st round pick.

[greg4012]

Trae isn't even remotely realistic, it would cost every asset they have and then some.

Most realistic scenario for this team to have a hope of contending is, DM asks out and specifically has Miami at the top of his list.
Would cost less and they might even be able to keep Jovic.
Worst case is they don't have enough and need to send Jimmy to a 3rd team, still would do it. Swapping Jimmy for DM is the better move long term.

Trading and signing Ingram to a huge contract would be a blunder (confident they aren't doing it).
The reasons NO wants to trade him are: inefficient scorer, injury prone and bad defender. The exact same reasons Heat fans want to trade Tyler.

Give me Mitchell first all day.

But, if Mitchell doesn't happen and we're exploring the next options and you can't see the difference for this team between having Brandon Ingram and Tyler Herro, then you go ahead and do you...

There is none. Both aren't a #1 option. What did BI ever do in the playoffs? He played a worse series than Herro this year, how much proof do you need?

I'm glad you asked. Brandon Ingram has been to the playoffs twice.

This season, he was putrid. He quite literally was still injured as he had missed the last 11 games of the season with injury AND missed the 1st play-in game with the same injury. Pels won but Zion got hurt. Ingram rushed back from his injury despite not being ready since Zion was out. NO got railed by OKC, BI was clearly not himself, was the focal point of OKC's defense, and was terrible.

2022 was interesting, as it is full of parallels to Tyler this season. BI was 24 (Tyler's age). BI was on the 8th seed playing against the 1 seed Suns (just like Miami this season). Zion was out again, so BI became the go-to guy (see Jimmy missing the Cs series). Brandon Ingram averaged 27 ppg on 48% shooting (40% from 3), 6.2 assists, and 6.2 rebounds while taking the eventual Western Conference champs to 6 games.


If anyone wants to say they don't want to invest in Ingram because of his issues with injuries and availability, then I completely respect it and share those concerns. If anyone wants to pretend that Brandon Ingram the basketball player isn't a major upgrade from Tyler Herro, then...prayers sent.

[MettaWorldPanda]

He doesn't play him because he's been bad defensively. Everytime I see him gets bodied in the paint or is a second slow with his reactions. I mean, there was a reason he went undrafted.

Spo gonna have to be a bit more traditional if he wants his players to stop breaking down. There have to be legit big men to funnel offensive players in to. We funnel guys into the smallest dudes on the court. Spo wants to switch everything and wants uber athletic defensive plays from our team full of wings.

Bam can stop everything perimeter in, but if he had a top notch defensive big (2 really) behind him, hed really shine. Our team D would really shine. Players might be able to tone down the accumulation injuries as well.

The team structure has to change.

Adem Bona (AKA Bam-lite) is killing it at the combine, I'd think he'd be wonderful on the heat as a back up C. Hopefully he's still there at 43, he might be playing himself into a 1st round pick.

Now Bona is definitely a true athletic backup Center to Bam. Former JJJ team mate at UCLA.

[HeatFan_NC]

Mannnnnn! Has anyone else seen how Jokic is abusing Rudy Gobert in the semifinals? He's whipping him so badly, MIN is going to have to call Child Protective Services and have Rudy placed in protective custody. I don't recall Bam getting abused like that in the Finals last year. Bam probably should have won DPOY.

[AirP.]

Spo wouldn’t even play Achuiwa with Bam and you all think Edey is a realistic possibility?

some won't want o hear it - but Spo needs to change too.

Smallball is dead. great bigs are coming back in style big time, and every team is getting longer on the wings and tougher all around.

Playing with an undersized C next to guys like Rozier/Herro/Duncan isn't winning you anything going forward.

It's time to evolve - we need to supersize the entire team and get back to Heat toughness, we don't have a Luka type to cover up us being small/weak we have to be the tougher/bigger team.

Is it time to evolve when this coach has had great success with this roster for the last 5 years? On the outside looking in this roster should have been at best a 1st round team yet in 5 seasons they got to the ECF 3 times and the NBA finals twice. I think Miami has had way more success than they should have had based on the quality of the roster. Just looking at the rebounding rate, Miami as small as they were, they were 17th for rebounds per 100 possessions while being 11th for defensive rebounds but 23rd in offensive rebounds. For Miami opponents was 14th for rebounds and 27th overall in offensive rebounds (9.6 per100) but 5th in defensive rebounds. The numbers would indicate Miami needs to go after more offensive rebounds as in possibly better positioned after a 3pt shot or just getting someone who is very good at offensive rebounds. Surprising, after the obvious bigs that are closer to the basket like O.Robinson, Bryant, Bam and Love, Jamal Cain had the 5th most offensive rebounds per100 for Miami, maybe a adding a player like that into the rotation next year could help.

Jovic at PF should help some of the rebounding numbers, with his height he can potentially keep rebounds alive for Miami to have a better chance to grab. Something I'd rather see than just taller players is stronger players, couple that with good footwork and Miami could go into the post more often with more players to get higher percentage shots and/or get to the line more often.

And of course, size is better when talking about the same talent levels but sometimes you have to go smaller to get better overall basketball talent.

[greg4012]

And of course, size is better when talking about the same talent levels but sometimes you have to go smaller to get better overall basketball talent.

THis is the real driving factor that Spo is not compromising on. And I respect it. Size is great when it's functional. Size at the expense of functionality and skillsets is not the move.

[greg4012]

Read on Twitter

Calf strained or just a leg out the door?

I still don't believe it's prudent for NYK to pursue. I think BKN will, but will Mitchell be on board for whatever that resulting roster will look like? Lakers can be another bidder--was LeBron on a covert recruitment trip? THere will be a bidding war.

Let the drama ensue.

[VaDe255]

Give me Mitchell first all day.

But, if Mitchell doesn't happen and we're exploring the next options and you can't see the difference for this team between having Brandon Ingram and Tyler Herro, then you go ahead and do you...

There is none. Both aren't a #1 option. What did BI ever do in the playoffs? He played a worse series than Herro this year, how much proof do you need?

I'm glad you asked. Brandon Ingram has been to the playoffs twice.

This season, he was putrid. He quite literally was still injured as he had missed the last 11 games of the season with injury AND missed the 1st play-in game with the same injury. Pels won but Zion got hurt. Ingram rushed back from his injury despite not being ready since Zion was out. NO got railed by OKC, BI was clearly not himself, was the focal point of OKC's defense, and was terrible.

2022 was interesting, as it is full of parallels to Tyler this season. BI was 24 (Tyler's age). BI was on the 8th seed playing against the 1 seed Suns (just like Miami this season). Zion was out again, so BI became the go-to guy (see Jimmy missing the Cs series). Brandon Ingram averaged 27 ppg on 48% shooting (40% from 3), 6.2 assists, and 6.2 rebounds while taking the eventual Western Conference champs to 6 games.


If anyone wants to say they don't want to invest in Ingram because of his issues with injuries and availability, then I completely respect it and share those concerns. If anyone wants to pretend that Brandon Ingram the basketball player isn't a major upgrade from Tyler Herro, then...prayers sent.

You sure got me.
To answer my question, he has done absolutely nothing in the playoffs, played 10 games and exited in the first round twice.
The 10 games he played have him shooting at 54% TS and a negative player on defense, I don't know how you can call that a major upgrade.

For his career BI is at 56.1% TS thats a major upgrade over Herro's 55.7% TS?

BI is older and a minor upgrade over Herro, he can't carry a team and would fail just the same as a #1 option. You wanna give up picks + young players for that? (Heat aren't doing that)

[greg4012]

There is none. Both aren't a #1 option. What did BI ever do in the playoffs? He played a worse series than Herro this year, how much proof do you need?

I'm glad you asked. Brandon Ingram has been to the playoffs twice.

This season, he was putrid. He quite literally was still injured as he had missed the last 11 games of the season with injury AND missed the 1st play-in game with the same injury. Pels won but Zion got hurt. Ingram rushed back from his injury despite not being ready since Zion was out. NO got railed by OKC, BI was clearly not himself, was the focal point of OKC's defense, and was terrible.

2022 was interesting, as it is full of parallels to Tyler this season. BI was 24 (Tyler's age). BI was on the 8th seed playing against the 1 seed Suns (just like Miami this season). Zion was out again, so BI became the go-to guy (see Jimmy missing the Cs series). Brandon Ingram averaged 27 ppg on 48% shooting (40% from 3), 6.2 assists, and 6.2 rebounds while taking the eventual Western Conference champs to 6 games.


If anyone wants to say they don't want to invest in Ingram because of his issues with injuries and availability, then I completely respect it and share those concerns. If anyone wants to pretend that Brandon Ingram the basketball player isn't a major upgrade from Tyler Herro, then...prayers sent.

You sure got me.
To answer my question, he has done absolutely nothing in the playoffs, played 10 games and exited in the first round twice.
The 10 games he played have him shooting at 54% TS and a negative player on defense, I don't know how you can call that a major upgrade.

For his career BI is at 56.1% TS thats a major upgrade over Herro's 55.7% TS?

Look BI is older and a minor upgrade over Herro, he can't carry a team and would fail just the same as a #1 option. You wanna give up picks + young players for that? (Heat aren't doing that)

And Jimmy Butler's career TS% before arriving in Miami was right around 56.9%

It's not a slam dunk. And I'm all for going for a slam dunk first. If it's not possible, then I see the basketball pros for this move--give Jimmy the upgraded shot he deserves, set up a nice Bam-aged core that can then be built upon or modified. Just a year ago, most of the board would have laughed at the idea of Miami adding Ingram as a pipe dream.

Dude is the same age as Bam and just 2 years older than Tyler Herro. The upgrade would be substantially more than "minor" IMO

[wadenation305]

Still like Colin Sexton as an undervalued young player that would fit in the Culture (And Herro in Utah)

Ainge would want Herro, 3 picks, and one of Jaquez and Niko. Then remember that Riley is on the other end of the phone and say "You know what BOTH Jaquez and Niko. Take it or leave it"

[Flash4thewin]

Still like Colin Sexton as an undervalued young player that would fit in the Culture (And Herro in Utah)

Ainge would want Herro, 3 picks, and one of Jaquez and Niko. Then remember that Riley is on the other end of the phone and say "You know what BOTH Jaquez and Niko. Take it or leave it"

Finally someone gets it, there are certain organization where if you want to deal with them you will need to pay a premium. Utah is one of those organizations, Portland until they have a change of ownership will be another one, the same with the Cavs. Then remember we have "issues" with Klutch and continue our decade long feud with them by not signing any players associated with them.

[VaDe255]

I'm glad you asked. Brandon Ingram has been to the playoffs twice.

This season, he was putrid. He quite literally was still injured as he had missed the last 11 games of the season with injury AND missed the 1st play-in game with the same injury. Pels won but Zion got hurt. Ingram rushed back from his injury despite not being ready since Zion was out. NO got railed by OKC, BI was clearly not himself, was the focal point of OKC's defense, and was terrible.

2022 was interesting, as it is full of parallels to Tyler this season. BI was 24 (Tyler's age). BI was on the 8th seed playing against the 1 seed Suns (just like Miami this season). Zion was out again, so BI became the go-to guy (see Jimmy missing the Cs series). Brandon Ingram averaged 27 ppg on 48% shooting (40% from 3), 6.2 assists, and 6.2 rebounds while taking the eventual Western Conference champs to 6 games.


If anyone wants to say they don't want to invest in Ingram because of his issues with injuries and availability, then I completely respect it and share those concerns. If anyone wants to pretend that Brandon Ingram the basketball player isn't a major upgrade from Tyler Herro, then...prayers sent.

You sure got me.
To answer my question, he has done absolutely nothing in the playoffs, played 10 games and exited in the first round twice.
The 10 games he played have him shooting at 54% TS and a negative player on defense, I don't know how you can call that a major upgrade.

For his career BI is at 56.1% TS thats a major upgrade over Herro's 55.7% TS?

Look BI is older and a minor upgrade over Herro, he can't carry a team and would fail just the same as a #1 option. You wanna give up picks + young players for that? (Heat aren't doing that)

And Jimmy Butler's career TS% before arriving in Miami was right around 56.9%

It's not a slam dunk. And I'm all for going for a slam dunk first. If it's not possible, then I see the basketball pros for this move--give Jimmy the upgraded shot he deserves, set up a nice Bam-aged core that can then be built upon or modified. Just a year ago, most of the board would have laughed at the idea of Miami adding Ingram as a pipe dream.

Dude is the same age as Bam and just 2 years older than Tyler Herro. The upgrade would be substantially more than "minor" IMO

Ingrams shot profile this year was 0-3 ft 14.7% and 61.4% mid range jumpers (a lot of them from 10ft+), only 23.9% of his attempts are from 3. This is mostly representative for his game.
His game is too mid rage heavy and you already have Bam/Butler who create a lot of the same shots.

To me it's just not worth it for a player, who has so many issues and isn't even a good fit.

[lastb1ckman]

Read on Twitter

Calf strained or just a leg out the door?

I still don't believe it's prudent for NYK to pursue. I think BKN will, but will Mitchell be on board for whatever that resulting roster will look like? Lakers can be another bidder--was LeBron on a covert recruitment trip? THere will be a bidding war.

Let the drama ensue.

Geez man the Celtics really don't have to face ANYONE full strength this playoffs do they? I hope the Knicks pull something out of their ass for once or Jokic tears them up like he's supposed to in the finals. But with the Celtic's luck Jokic will pull his hamstring or something smh.

[AirP.]

There is none. Both aren't a #1 option. What did BI ever do in the playoffs? He played a worse series than Herro this year, how much proof do you need?

I'm glad you asked. Brandon Ingram has been to the playoffs twice.

This season, he was putrid. He quite literally was still injured as he had missed the last 11 games of the season with injury AND missed the 1st play-in game with the same injury. Pels won but Zion got hurt. Ingram rushed back from his injury despite not being ready since Zion was out. NO got railed by OKC, BI was clearly not himself, was the focal point of OKC's defense, and was terrible.

2022 was interesting, as it is full of parallels to Tyler this season. BI was 24 (Tyler's age). BI was on the 8th seed playing against the 1 seed Suns (just like Miami this season). Zion was out again, so BI became the go-to guy (see Jimmy missing the Cs series). Brandon Ingram averaged 27 ppg on 48% shooting (40% from 3), 6.2 assists, and 6.2 rebounds while taking the eventual Western Conference champs to 6 games.


If anyone wants to say they don't want to invest in Ingram because of his issues with injuries and availability, then I completely respect it and share those concerns. If anyone wants to pretend that Brandon Ingram the basketball player isn't a major upgrade from Tyler Herro, then...prayers sent.

You sure got me.
To answer my question, he has done absolutely nothing in the playoffs, played 10 games and exited in the first round twice.
The 10 games he played have him shooting at 54% TS and a negative player on defense, I don't know how you can call that a major upgrade.

For his career BI is at 56.1% TS thats a major upgrade over Herro's 55.7% TS?

BI is older and a minor upgrade over Herro, he can't carry a team and would fail just the same as a #1 option. You wanna give up picks + young players for that? (Heat aren't doing that)

Yes, Brandon Ingram is a major upgrade over Herro for Miami. 4 of the last 5 seasons his TS% was 57.8% or higher. Nobody is saying BI is an MVP candidate in waiting but he may be the best youngish scorer Miami "CAN" acquire and then you look at the other end of the court, just his size (7'3'' wingspan) makes him a much better defender than Herro who I watch basically escorts players to the basket, the lack of effort just try to play some defense confuses me. Herro needs to go to a fast-paced team that doesn't prioritize defense which there are a few teams out there like that.

The biggest difference though is the coaching. Herro is getting a Spoelstra bump, and I'd be interested in seeing how he is under someone else, and I think BI could really take a step forward in his career being in Miami in that environment and being coached by Spoelstra.

Once again, is it the move most fans want? Probably not but it might be the best move Miami can make to get a scorer on Bam's timeline.

[greg4012]

You sure got me.
To answer my question, he has done absolutely nothing in the playoffs, played 10 games and exited in the first round twice.
The 10 games he played have him shooting at 54% TS and a negative player on defense, I don't know how you can call that a major upgrade.

For his career BI is at 56.1% TS thats a major upgrade over Herro's 55.7% TS?

Look BI is older and a minor upgrade over Herro, he can't carry a team and would fail just the same as a #1 option. You wanna give up picks + young players for that? (Heat aren't doing that)

And Jimmy Butler's career TS% before arriving in Miami was right around 56.9%

It's not a slam dunk. And I'm all for going for a slam dunk first. If it's not possible, then I see the basketball pros for this move--give Jimmy the upgraded shot he deserves, set up a nice Bam-aged core that can then be built upon or modified. Just a year ago, most of the board would have laughed at the idea of Miami adding Ingram as a pipe dream.

Dude is the same age as Bam and just 2 years older than Tyler Herro. The upgrade would be substantially more than "minor" IMO

Ingrams shot profile this year was 0-3 ft 14.7% and 61.4% mid range jumpers (a lot of them from 10ft+), only 23.9% of his attempts are from 3. This is mostly representative for his game.
His game is too mid rage heavy and you already have Bam/Butler who create a lot of the same shots.

To me it's just not worth it for a player, who has so many issues and isn't even a good fit.

Now we're cookin. Ingram is one of the better midrange players in the game. He can get it off on anyone. As a result, I agree that he trends toward it too much. His usage would need to be curated with better coaching in Miami. That's one of the exciting things about the prospect to me. That's low hanging fruit to level his game up.

Going back to TS%. You go back to 2 of Ingram's most efficient shooting seasons (2020 and 2021) and note that those were the 2 seasons where the highest percentage of his shot diet were 3PA (over 1/3). Ingram has always been an excellent spot-up shooter.

Pair that with the fact that Bam's best function is to create less of his own offense (but still be able to when he needs to), and instead create more for others and continue to be the people mover creating space and looks for others, and the fact that Jimmy increasingly (1) does not want to be a high usage player in the regular season (expectation is for him to remain below 25% usage); and (2) increasingly wants to operate off ball creating out of the left corner as a baseline merchant (see Jimmy's shot chart below); and (3) fit with Jimmy is only a consideration for 1-2 more years while his usage will be declining, and I see the framework for something a lot more intentional and dynamic than what the approach was in New Orleans where everything was simply catered to Zion (who only shot in the paint).

I think the blend of skillsets gives Spo and co a lot to work with for a revamped offense for the Jimmy-Bam core (and a bridge to the future).

Jimmy's shot chart: https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jimmy-butler-shot-chart-by-season

[DayofMourning]

Greg our offseason MVP man. Keep it up!

[greg4012]

Greg our offseason MVP man. Keep it up!

Just lookin for the light my man lol

[DayofMourning]

Greg our offseason MVP man. Keep it up!

Just lookin for the light my man lol

I hear ya. Whether I agree or disagree, I appreciate your honest, detailed takes.