Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

Sent from my Google Pixel Slate using Tapatalk

Playoffs:

Herro: 16.8 ppg
Bam: 22.6 ppg

Please stop it we are in 2024 and advanced stats and analytics exit ^^
Bam and Herro both were absolutely awful offensively, yeah Bam got you 22.6 ppg on 53.2% TS. He took all those contested middies (a lot early in the shot clock too)
Herro on 51% TS was awful as well, I liked his shot profile 55% of his shots were 3s and quite a few at the rim (only 20.5% at 10ft+), nice progression compared to earlier in the season, where he was taking middies too much. Still missed many shots he normally makes, very dissapointing.

All both have proove this year is that they are not a #1 option on offense at their current level. I guess Bam is excused because of his defense, but don't try to make him look like someone he is not.

Bams is heavily skewed by game 5 where he was chucking in the 2nd half down 30

[VaDe255]

I'm having a hard time figuring out how Miami brain trust can expect its offense to become better with both Rozier and Herro in the starting lineup, instead of having 1 low efficient higher volume scorer, they'll have 2.

This season Miami had a team TS% of .578 and a calculated ORTG of 114.

Herro and Rozier pulled Miami's offense down even though they scored points, they just made the team less efficient on offense.

Heat TS% .578, ORTG 114
Herro TS% .558, ORTG 108
Rozier TS% .531, ORTG 111

* Rozier's stats are just in Miami and his first few weeks without practices pulled his number way down.

Rozier
March TS% .542, ORTG 111
April TS% .642, ORTG 119 <- Only 5 games.

I guess it's possible that with more on court positions being a threat could make everyone have easier shots overall and could make some players more efficient, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. I have to think one of them has to be moved (or put to 6th man like Riley mentioned) and since they gave up a 1st for Rozier, I highly doubt they'd move him, it would have to be looked at as a horrible trade, not only giving up a ton of expiring cap space but a 1st rounder too.

I prefer NBA.com advaced stats or EPM (dunksandthrees). BBref makes some weird assumptions that basically make their numbers deviated from most metric.
Tyler is a fine player and he's still very young, he'll improve whether it is here or somewhere else, we'll see.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Tyler sucks

[VaDe255]

Playoffs:

Herro: 16.8 ppg
Bam: 22.6 ppg

Please stop it we are in 2024 and advanced stats and analytics exit ^^
Bam and Herro both were absolutely awful offensively, yeah Bam got you 22.6 ppg on 53.2% TS. He took all those contested middies (a lot early in the shot clock too)
Herro on 51% TS was awful as well, I liked his shot profile 55% of his shots were 3s and quite a few at the rim (only 20.5% at 10ft+), nice progression compared to earlier in the season, where he was taking middies too much. Still missed many shots he normally makes, very dissapointing.

All both have proove this year is that they are not a #1 option on offense at their current level. I guess Bam is excused because of his defense, but don't try to make him look like someone he is not.

What do I have to stop?

Using ppg as a metric that means anything, it matters how you get them.

[greg4012]

Please stop it we are in 2024 and advanced stats and analytics exit ^^
Bam and Herro both were absolutely awful offensively, yeah Bam got you 22.6 ppg on 53.2% TS. He took all those contested middies (a lot early in the shot clock too)
Herro on 51% TS was awful as well, I liked his shot profile 55% of his shots were 3s and quite a few at the rim (only 20.5% at 10ft+), nice progression compared to earlier in the season, where he was taking middies too much. Still missed many shots he normally makes, very dissapointing.

All both have proove this year is that they are not a #1 option on offense at their current level. I guess Bam is excused because of his defense, but don't try to make him look like someone he is not.

What do I have to stop?

Using ppg as a metric that means anything, it matter how you get them.

Did you miss any of the context that immediately preceded my nominal post? I was literally just providing an additional data point to an entire exchange that was in the midst of occurring where a graphic JUST USING PPG broken down by month was the topic at hand. I found it lacking as April was a month represented, excluding playoffs, despite the fact that half of April was playoff bball.

YOu don't gotta tell me that PPG (and most counting stats) have an outsized perceived value relative to their actual efficacy in characterizing impact.

Pretty sure a few of us on here spout that nonstop.

What's really on your mind?

[VaDe255]

What do I have to stop?

Using ppg as a metric that means anything, it matter how you get them.

Did you miss any of the context that immediately preceded my nominal post? I was literally just providing an additional data point to an entire exchange that was in the midst of occurring where a graphic JUST USING PPG broken down by month was the topic at hand. I found it lacking as April was a month represented, excluding playoffs, despite the fact that half of April was playoff bball.

YOu don't gotta tell me that PPG (and most counting stats) have an outsized perceived value relative to their actual efficacy in characterizing impact.

Pretty sure a few of us on here spout that nonstop.

What's really on your mind?

It's clear that you wanted to make someone look a certain way.
How about those play in games then, why you left those out?

Tyler 24.5 ppg
Bam 11.5 ppg

[twix2500]

What do I have to stop?

Using ppg as a metric that means anything, it matter how you get them.

Did you miss any of the context that immediately preceded my nominal post? I was literally just providing an additional data point to an entire exchange that was in the midst of occurring where a graphic JUST USING PPG broken down by month was the topic at hand. I found it lacking as April was a month represented, excluding playoffs, despite the fact that half of April was playoff bball.

YOu don't gotta tell me that PPG (and most counting stats) have an outsized perceived value relative to their actual efficacy in characterizing impact.

Pretty sure a few of us on here spout that nonstop.

What's really on your mind?

I didnt include the playoff or play-in. it just regular season games. Traditional Stats are still highly important. Advance Stats puts more context to the traditional stats. I am leaving it to you guys to put your context on why the traditional stats and montly trend is so.

[greg4012]

Using ppg as a metric that means anything, it matter how you get them.

Did you miss any of the context that immediately preceded my nominal post? I was literally just providing an additional data point to an entire exchange that was in the midst of occurring where a graphic JUST USING PPG broken down by month was the topic at hand. I found it lacking as April was a month represented, excluding playoffs, despite the fact that half of April was playoff bball.

YOu don't gotta tell me that PPG (and most counting stats) have an outsized perceived value relative to their actual efficacy in characterizing impact.

Pretty sure a few of us on here spout that nonstop.

What's really on your mind?

It's clear that you wanted to make someone look a certain way.
How about those play in games then, why you left those out?

Tyler 24.5 ppg
Bam 11.5 ppg

You're projecting, brotha.

I wasn't trying to go at Tyler, at all. I think his ebbs and flows, strengths and weaknesses, fit with the team, and general inconsistencies are pretty well tread and understood dynamics on here already.

I find it fascinating that there was (1) the original chart referencing just PPG progression by month; (2) at least 7 posts discussing the original chart referencing PPG progression by month; and (3) then I added the data for playoffs--which really rounds out April. And out of all of that, my post is what triggered you.

And then you said the issue was use of referencing PPG. But, now you're saying the issue is your projection of what you assumed I discreetly intended by posting the playoff data point (which I didn't).

Just trying to wrap my head around what the hell is actually going on here.

[greg4012]

Using ppg as a metric that means anything, it matter how you get them.

Did you miss any of the context that immediately preceded my nominal post? I was literally just providing an additional data point to an entire exchange that was in the midst of occurring where a graphic JUST USING PPG broken down by month was the topic at hand. I found it lacking as April was a month represented, excluding playoffs, despite the fact that half of April was playoff bball.

YOu don't gotta tell me that PPG (and most counting stats) have an outsized perceived value relative to their actual efficacy in characterizing impact.

Pretty sure a few of us on here spout that nonstop.

What's really on your mind?

I didnt include the playoff or play-in. it just regular season games. Traditional Stats are still highly important. Advance Stats puts more context to the traditional stats. I am leaving it to you guys to put your context on why the traditional stats and montly trend is so.

I think April regular season games often produce some of the wonkiest stat lines relative to the rest of the season. Weird mix of (1) teams locked into the playoffs and shifting gears/focus; (2) fringe teams fighting for playoff spots; (3) teams posturing one way or another for seeding; (4) load management for postseason; (5) post-trade deadline and All-Star break tweaks and changes to teams; and (6) it usually being the smallest sample of games of any month.

I immediately think of the Oladipo 40-10-7 game to end the 2022 season vs the Magic, which was preceded by 2 DNPs, a 21 point outing vs Toronto and 2 more DNPs

[Lennyzinho]

I don't understand why people want or even bring up Trae Young. You think herro who's 6'5" 200lbs is bad on defense and gets bullied and is streaky and overpaid?
Wait until you get a 6ft 165lb Trae Young making the max. Imagine that guy playing vs OKC or MIN or BOS... what a disaster. I just don't get it. I want no part of small offense only defensive liability guards making max and thinking they'd somehow get us over the hump.

Rozier makes 25M and he's a good 6th man and regular season dude and can score in bunches and tries much harder on defense than trae does. That's about as much exposure to that as a roster can handle.

Forget trae. The nba is moving on from dudes like that. Look how exposed Garland has been this year. Kyrie gave Harden problems all series. Look how exposed Herro was vs Boston. SGA is small but the dude leads the league in steals. Jrue constant all defense team type guy. Dumping herro and assets to get trae is ridiculous to me.

Sorry for rant but I'm very anti Trae xoxo

Trae vs the Thunder: 25-4-10

Celtics: 26-3-8

Wolves: 31-5-10

We should be hype for an Trae Young acquisition, he’s had some postseason success as well. Hes a top offensive talent in the league

Come on man, comparing the OKC and MIN 2023-2024 teams to trae's historical records vs two awful rebuilding teams the previous 5 years is kinda trash and picking stats to serve the narrative. Trae went 3-5 vs those teams the last two years. And playoff ball is v different than reg season ball. Hawks have done nothing in playoffs. Donovan has over achieved and back packed Utah and Cleveland teams. Hawks, analysts and podcasters always think they have a decent roster and should compete and make playoffs and every year they underachieve.

Do we realize hawks became BETTER once Trae got hurt? Same with Lavine and bulls. And we all saw what the heat did last year without Herro in playoffs. (Still think he's a plus if he embraces Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams or Ginobli career arc).

Anyway. Heat will never trade for Trae, I just don't understand the desire. A player like Trae and his salary would guarantee us first or second round exits for thr next 5 years.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Using ppg as a metric that means anything, it matter how you get them.

Did you miss any of the context that immediately preceded my nominal post? I was literally just providing an additional data point to an entire exchange that was in the midst of occurring where a graphic JUST USING PPG broken down by month was the topic at hand. I found it lacking as April was a month represented, excluding playoffs, despite the fact that half of April was playoff bball.

YOu don't gotta tell me that PPG (and most counting stats) have an outsized perceived value relative to their actual efficacy in characterizing impact.

Pretty sure a few of us on here spout that nonstop.

What's really on your mind?

It's clear that you wanted to make someone look a certain way.
How about those play in games then, why you left those out?

Tyler 24.5 ppg
Bam 11.5 ppg

How the fuxk do you still believe in Tyler at this point lol?

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I don't understand why people want or even bring up Trae Young. You think herro who's 6'5" 200lbs is bad on defense and gets bullied and is streaky and overpaid?
Wait until you get a 6ft 165lb Trae Young making the max. Imagine that guy playing vs OKC or MIN or BOS... what a disaster. I just don't get it. I want no part of small offense only defensive liability guards making max and thinking they'd somehow get us over the hump.

Rozier makes 25M and he's a good 6th man and regular season dude and can score in bunches and tries much harder on defense than trae does. That's about as much exposure to that as a roster can handle.

Forget trae. The nba is moving on from dudes like that. Look how exposed Garland has been this year. Kyrie gave Harden problems all series. Look how exposed Herro was vs Boston. SGA is small but the dude leads the league in steals. Jrue constant all defense team type guy. Dumping herro and assets to get trae is ridiculous to me.

Sorry for rant but I'm very anti Trae xoxo

Trae vs the Thunder: 25-4-10

Celtics: 26-3-8

Wolves: 31-5-10

We should be hype for an Trae Young acquisition, he’s had some postseason success as well. Hes a top offensive talent in the league

Come on man, comparing the OKC and MIN 2023-2024 teams to trae's historical records vs two awful rebuilding teams the previous 5 years is kinda trash and picking stats to serve the narrative. Trae went 3-5 vs those teams the last two years. And playoff ball is v different than reg season ball. Hawks have done nothing in playoffs. Donovan has over achieved and back packed Utah and Cleveland teams. Hawks, analysts and podcasters always think they have a decent roster and should compete and make playoffs and every year they underachieve.

Do we realize hawks became BETTER once Trae got hurt? Same with Lavine and bulls. And we all saw what the heat did last year without Herro in playoffs. (Still think he's a plus if he embraces Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams or Ginobli career arc).

Anyway. Heat will never trade for Trae, I just don't understand the desire. A player like Trae and his salary would guarantee us first or second round exits for thr next 5 years.

The FO has empowered the fans to believe we’re too good for talent, Trae is likely a top 10 offensive player in the league, our biggest weakness. Traes been to an ECF and pushed the eventual champs to 6 (who swept us)

[AirP.]

I'm having a hard time figuring out how Miami brain trust can expect its offense to become better with both Rozier and Herro in the starting lineup, instead of having 1 low efficient higher volume scorer, they'll have 2.

This season Miami had a team TS% of .578 and a calculated ORTG of 114.

Herro and Rozier pulled Miami's offense down even though they scored points, they just made the team less efficient on offense.

Heat TS% .578, ORTG 114
Herro TS% .558, ORTG 108
Rozier TS% .531, ORTG 111

* Rozier's stats are just in Miami and his first few weeks without practices pulled his number way down.

Rozier
March TS% .542, ORTG 111
April TS% .642, ORTG 119 <- Only 5 games.

I guess it's possible that with more on court positions being a threat could make everyone have easier shots overall and could make some players more efficient, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. I have to think one of them has to be moved (or put to 6th man like Riley mentioned) and since they gave up a 1st for Rozier, I highly doubt they'd move him, it would have to be looked at as a horrible trade, not only giving up a ton of expiring cap space but a 1st rounder too.

I prefer NBA.com advaced stats or EPM (dunksandthrees). BBref makes some weird assumptions that basically make their numbers deviated from most metric.
Tyler is a fine player and he's still very young, he'll improve whether it is here or somewhere else, we'll see.

Not a fan of NBA.com's advanced stats like ORTG or DRTG because they're not advanced at all, the formula is ORtg = 100 * (PProd / TotPoss), so basically everyone on the floor gets the same rating even if say... Butler steals the ball 3 times in a row and scores 6 easy buckets everyone gets 100% of those points, or Herro or someone like Lillard hits 3 3s in a row by just bringing down the ball and jacking up a 3, everyone on the floor gets 100% of those points. Basketball-Reference actually takes BOTH the individual's stats and the team's stats to try to figure out how many points a player is actually contributing per 100 possessions.

I'm not sure about dunksandthrees, I do hear they remove the garbage time stats when a game is out of hand near the end of games when players aren't putting in near as much effort. I do think this is a better representation of what players are doing vs the NBA's simple ORTG and DRTGS.

You can see the formula here.

I get Herro will only be 25 next season but he'll be in year 6 in the NBA. He's had 5 professional off-seasons to get better and he's putting up about the same type of stats other than shooting more. During the regular season defenses don't play as tough nor gameplan all that much each night like they do in the playoffs which is why Herro looks much worse in the playoffs. If you're happy with him dropping 20-23 points on 18-20 shots a night in the regular season cool, but that's not going to translate to the playoffs.

The biggest reason why people are finally coming around to maybe Herro should be a scoring 6th man is because he'd be going against more backup players and taking fewer shots away from the starters.

If Herro wasn't a negative on defense, I may even be fine with his lower efficiency as a volume shooter, but he's bad, really bad on defense. Robinson use to be just as bad, but he's gotten better especially in team defense, but maybe him being humbled not only losing his starting position but falling completely out of the rotation made him take defense more seriously. There's no reason why Miami can't get good defensive effort from everyone on the court, this also includes Butler needing to do more vs his coast mode.

[HeatFan_NC]

Teams around the league would be at an uproar and would work tirelessly on sabotaging this build from ever happening.

Would have to first come to a secret agreement with lebron and postpone his signing before executing the other trade.

Exactly Lebron would get word to the team, Miami makes the moves in question, also passes info to said player so they can push this to happen on their side as well. Then one thing drops, Lebron says you know what Ive made my money it's time to go back to a place I felt great and finish it all there, signs a vet minimum, BOOM, we instantly become the Heatles again... Hate pours from all sides.

I’ll indulge lol

They’d need spacing and I suspect would want to keep Duncan

Plus lebron would be their defaco PG so moving Rozier instead makes more sense

Lebron
Duncan
Jimmy
Durant
Bam

The only way Lebron comes back to MIA is if we use that #15 pick on Bronny.

[twix2500]

Exactly Lebron would get word to the team, Miami makes the moves in question, also passes info to said player so they can push this to happen on their side as well. Then one thing drops, Lebron says you know what Ive made my money it's time to go back to a place I felt great and finish it all there, signs a vet minimum, BOOM, we instantly become the Heatles again... Hate pours from all sides.

I’ll indulge lol

They’d need spacing and I suspect would want to keep Duncan

Plus lebron would be their defaco PG so moving Rozier instead makes more sense

Lebron
Duncan
Jimmy
Durant
Bam

The only way Lebron comes back to MIA is if we use that #15 pick on Bronny.

No one picking Bronny in the first round. He is not even 2nd round talent.

[VaDe255]

Did you miss any of the context that immediately preceded my nominal post? I was literally just providing an additional data point to an entire exchange that was in the midst of occurring where a graphic JUST USING PPG broken down by month was the topic at hand. I found it lacking as April was a month represented, excluding playoffs, despite the fact that half of April was playoff bball.

YOu don't gotta tell me that PPG (and most counting stats) have an outsized perceived value relative to their actual efficacy in characterizing impact.

Pretty sure a few of us on here spout that nonstop.

What's really on your mind?

It's clear that you wanted to make someone look a certain way.
How about those play in games then, why you left those out?

Tyler 24.5 ppg
Bam 11.5 ppg

How the fuxk do you still believe in Tyler at this point lol?

All about expectations. He's a fine young player, not a superstar or a star.
He's 24y, hasn't reached his physical peak and works hard, doesn't have any off court problems or causes any drama.
I'd like his contract to be slightly less if he doesn't improve but it's not a big deal, he can be moved at any point in time if needed.

[carnageta]

Meh, I'm probably one of the few but I'm actually not opposed to Tyler Herro. I think we should tamper our expectations of what he's supposed to be, as we now have a clearer understanding of what his limitations are.

I think he could make a great complimentary scorer to an alpha, but where the issue lies is that we expect him to be the respective alpha (but he's not). Jimmy is partly to blame because of that due to his frequent lack of assertiveness offensively.

"But he's paid like an alpha so that has to be the expectation for him!!!" - that's just incorrect lol. Herro was the 52nd highest paid player in the league this season, and will be approximately in the same range next year as well.

Some notable guys paid more than Tyler Herro this season: Kyle Lowry, Chris Paul, Jordan Poole, CJ McCollum, Jerami Grant, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Fred Van Vleet, Darius Garland.

Some notable players paid slightly less than Tyler Herro this season (within 4m): Kyle Kuzma, John Collins, Mike Conley, Andrew Wiggins, Anfernee Simons, Jordan Clarkson, Terry Rozier.

With the pay people complain about how much he's making you would think he was on a superstar max contract, but he just isn't. Jaylen Brown is on a superstar max contract and he's going to make 59m next season, 20m more than what Tyler Herro will be paid.

For a player that averages 20, 5 and 4 on 44/39/85 shooting splits (at the age of 24) - it really isn't that bad of a contract to be paid ~27m.

[carnageta]

Now, although I do like Tyler Herro, I do not think a backcourt of him and Rozier can work. I think Herro - for most of the minutes that he plays - needs to be the smallest player on the court for our team. Hence, I think a 6th man role, i.e. Manu Ginobli, would be best suited for him.

[Beenie]

I’ll indulge lol

They’d need spacing and I suspect would want to keep Duncan

Plus lebron would be their defaco PG so moving Rozier instead makes more sense

Lebron
Duncan
Jimmy
Durant
Bam

The only way Lebron comes back to MIA is if we use that #15 pick on Bronny.

No one picking Bronny in the first round. He is not even 2nd round talent.

The way to look at the pick is whether a team is willing to trade their mid to late first round pick for Lebron.

I suspect Mia would be willing to draft Bronny if it became clear that his pops intends on leaving LA.

[twix2500]

The only way Lebron comes back to MIA is if we use that #15 pick on Bronny.

No one picking Bronny in the first round. He is not even 2nd round talent.

The way to look at the pick is whether a team is willing to trade their mid to late first round pick for Lebron.

I suspect Mia would be willing to draft Bronny if it became clear that his pops intends on leaving LA.

A team may be willing to draft Brony in the second round for Lebron but they are not gonna give a first round contract to the kid.