Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[AirP.]

I'd just note that shooting volume doesn't equate to being in a (potentially) better offense. And, as I said, this of course could turn out not to be the case and Herro could end up elsewhere and show no improvement over his production in Miami.

And I think Herro's "heat-check" shots are one you kind of have to live with. He's hit big shots for Miami in the 4th quarter, and you need guys who are confident to take and make -- and miss -- those shots.

No, you don't have to live with heat-checks from a player who's TS% is below the league average and is a terrible defender at 30 mil a year.

The league average for TS% this year was .580.
Miami as a team has a TS% of .578 which was good for 16th in the NBA and overall under the league average.
Miami without Herro's stats get them to league average for TS% at .580.

The league average for calculated ORTG was 115.3
Miami's calculated ORTG was 114.
Herro's calculated ORTG was 108 (which is about what he's given Miami the last 3 years).

If Herro were a 2 way player, it wouldn't be as bad, but he's being paid 30 million a year as a known negative defender, so the expectation is that he'll be an efficient scorer on the other end and that's not happening nor has it every happened and he's been in the NBA for now a half a decade meaning he's had 5 offseasons to work with professional trainers to become a better player for Miami and although he's gotten better in some situations, he's basically giving Miami the same numbers except he's shooting more.

I'm not so sure Rozier was the answer although I think Rozier was brought in to replace Herro's numbers on a little cheaper contract and being a little bit better defender than Herro. Rozier's first few weeks with Miami, he had 0 practices with his new teammates and it looked like it, his stats were bad but his last 21 games after missing 4 games (Miami won all 4 of those games), he put up 18.2 pts, 4.2 ast, 4.0 reb on .561 TS which are basically Herro numbers but making 4-5 million less than Herro. It's quite possible that with an offseason Spoelstra can better gameplan for using Rozier but with him never having a TS% .575 I'm not sure he's going to be any better than what Herro was for Miami (if he's basically replacing Herro's shots next year).

league average TS% (for a guard) was 57%. Herro shot 56%. With a smarter shot selection Herro could definitely improve his TS%.

Well, here's to season 6 to hope for that change to finally happen!

How many more years do I have to keep reading about how these big changes are coming for Herro? Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable at this point... probably not, at least not in Miami.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Garland ends up in San Antonio or LA, Trae Young gets traded to the Pels or BK, and Mitchell resigns with Cavs. Maybe just maybe Lillard forces his way here again behind closed doors but most likely the Bucks have to see it through another year. Our front office just doesn’t have the ammo while Herro’s value is not great around the league. Not very many teams have a need for him. Who wants to be on the hook for a 30 million dollar two guard who can’t defend and is oft injured?

[Bishop45]

Garland ends up in San Antonio or LA, Trae Young gets traded to the Pels or BK, and Mitchell resigns with Cavs. Maybe just maybe Lillard forces his way here again behind closed doors but most likely the Bucks have to see it through another year. Our front office just doesn’t have the ammo while Herro’s value is not great around the league. Not very many teams have a need for him. Who wants to be on the hook for a 30 million dollar two guard who can’t defend and is oft injured?

Folks Said similar about WB, Chris Paul and Rudy

There’s always a trade out there.

Tyler’s still young and talented. There’s a buyer out there

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

[NightWatch]

Chris Paul?

[Ball4life32]

If the Nets want to make a splashy splash they flip Simmons and picks for Trae Young. That actually makes sense. You can sell Ice Trae in NY

Hawks certainly don’t.

[SA37]

Spoiler:

No, you don't have to live with heat-checks from a player who's TS% is below the league average and is a terrible defender at 30 mil a year.

The league average for TS% this year was .580.
Miami as a team has a TS% of .578 which was good for 16th in the NBA and overall under the league average.
Miami without Herro's stats get them to league average for TS% at .580.

The league average for calculated ORTG was 115.3
Miami's calculated ORTG was 114.
Herro's calculated ORTG was 108 (which is about what he's given Miami the last 3 years).

If Herro were a 2 way player, it wouldn't be as bad, but he's being paid 30 million a year as a known negative defender, so the expectation is that he'll be an efficient scorer on the other end and that's not happening nor has it every happened and he's been in the NBA for now a half a decade meaning he's had 5 offseasons to work with professional trainers to become a better player for Miami and although he's gotten better in some situations, he's basically giving Miami the same numbers except he's shooting more.

I'm not so sure Rozier was the answer although I think Rozier was brought in to replace Herro's numbers on a little cheaper contract and being a little bit better defender than Herro. Rozier's first few weeks with Miami, he had 0 practices with his new teammates and it looked like it, his stats were bad but his last 21 games after missing 4 games (Miami won all 4 of those games), he put up 18.2 pts, 4.2 ast, 4.0 reb on .561 TS which are basically Herro numbers but making 4-5 million less than Herro. It's quite possible that with an offseason Spoelstra can better gameplan for using Rozier but with him never having a TS% .575 I'm not sure he's going to be any better than what Herro was for Miami (if he's basically replacing Herro's shots next year).

league average TS% (for a guard) was 57%. Herro shot 56%. With a smarter shot selection Herro could definitely improve his TS%.

Well, here's to season 6 to hope for that change to finally happen!

How many more years do I have to keep reading about how these big changes are coming for Herro? Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable at this point... probably not, at least not in Miami.

I don't know anyone is talking about "big changes" for Herro at this point. What I'm reading is basically a group who are optimistic on Herro's ability to make certain adjustments and don't mind/prefer keeping him around versus those who are pessimistic and would prefer to see him moved.

Every player comes with tradeoffs, including guys who are presumably better than Herro and likely available this summer: DeRozan, Lavine, Trae Young, Julius Randle, or Ingram. If they didn't have their flaws/weren't overpaid, they wouldn't be available.

There is no guarantee Miami is better off given whatever they might be able to trade Herro for. As for the comments on Rozier, I am pretty much in full agreement.

[contract]

Vucevic and Caruso seem like more realistic targets to go after considering what we have to work with in trade. Riley telegraphed the offseason. He’s looking to strengthen the bench and get the right pieces around Bam and Butler. Going for a 43 million dollar Trae Young imo is not what he has in mind based off those comments.

I think sometimes people underestimate how big of an impact simply having a deep bench of quality well rounded players can have on a team's success.

[contract]

No, you don't have to live with heat-checks from a player who's TS% is below the league average and is a terrible defender at 30 mil a year.

The league average for TS% this year was .580.
Miami as a team has a TS% of .578 which was good for 16th in the NBA and overall under the league average.
Miami without Herro's stats get them to league average for TS% at .580.

The league average for calculated ORTG was 115.3
Miami's calculated ORTG was 114.
Herro's calculated ORTG was 108 (which is about what he's given Miami the last 3 years).

If Herro were a 2 way player, it wouldn't be as bad, but he's being paid 30 million a year as a known negative defender, so the expectation is that he'll be an efficient scorer on the other end and that's not happening nor has it every happened and he's been in the NBA for now a half a decade meaning he's had 5 offseasons to work with professional trainers to become a better player for Miami and although he's gotten better in some situations, he's basically giving Miami the same numbers except he's shooting more.

I'm not so sure Rozier was the answer although I think Rozier was brought in to replace Herro's numbers on a little cheaper contract and being a little bit better defender than Herro. Rozier's first few weeks with Miami, he had 0 practices with his new teammates and it looked like it, his stats were bad but his last 21 games after missing 4 games (Miami won all 4 of those games), he put up 18.2 pts, 4.2 ast, 4.0 reb on .561 TS which are basically Herro numbers but making 4-5 million less than Herro. It's quite possible that with an offseason Spoelstra can better gameplan for using Rozier but with him never having a TS% .575 I'm not sure he's going to be any better than what Herro was for Miami (if he's basically replacing Herro's shots next year).

league average TS% (for a guard) was 57%. Herro shot 56%. With a smarter shot selection Herro could definitely improve his TS%.

Well, here's to season 6 to hope for that change to finally happen!

How many more years do I have to keep reading about how these big changes are coming for Herro? Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable at this point... probably not, at least not in Miami.

The Heat aren't helping the process by putting the ball in his hands. The less he handles the ball, the better.

[MettaWorldPanda]

If the Nets want to make a splashy splash they flip Simmons and picks for Trae Young. That actually makes sense. You can sell Ice Trae in NY

Hawks certainly don’t.

If your speaking from a Hawks perspective then does Tyler Herro and Rozier package interest you? I’ve visited the Hawks board and you guys seemed more inclined to trade Murray and Capela to the Pels for Brandon Ingram expiring.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Vucevic and Caruso seem like more realistic targets to go after considering what we have to work with in trade. Riley telegraphed the offseason. He’s looking to strengthen the bench and get the right pieces around Bam and Butler. Going for a 43 million dollar Trae Young imo is not what he has in mind based off those comments.

I think sometimes people underestimate how big of an impact simply having a deep bench of quality well rounded players can have on a team's success.

I mean we’ve seen what happens just by adding good functional role players like Tucker, Iguodala, and Crowder has done. Problem is we’ve been stuck by not having the money to pay such good role players beyond a year or two. We have 50 million tied up on Herro and Robinson alone. I think there would be more value in having 4 mid level style role players for that amount.

[Flash4thewin]

Garland ends up in San Antonio or LA, Trae Young gets traded to the Pels or BK, and Mitchell resigns with Cavs. Maybe just maybe Lillard forces his way here again behind closed doors but most likely the Bucks have to see it through another year. Our front office just doesn’t have the ammo while Herro’s value is not great around the league. Not very many teams have a need for him. Who wants to be on the hook for a 30 million dollar two guard who can’t defend and is oft injured?

Folks Said similar about WB, Chris Paul and Rudy

There’s always a trade out there.

Tyler’s still young and talented. There’s a buyer out there

[MettaWorldPanda]

There’s a possible buyer for pennies on the dollar. Not for some of the names getting thrown around on the board.
Folks Said similar about WB, Chris Paul and Rudy

There’s always a trade out there.

Tyler’s still young and talented. There’s a buyer out there

There’s a possible buyer for pennies on the dollar. Not for some of the names getting thrown around on the board. Maybe two quality vets in their 30’s for a team looking to get younger.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I think if we do end up trading Herro the most logical buyer could be the Chicago Bulls. Herro cooking them for 24,10, and 9 in the play in game probably did a lot for his trade value with them. They are also littered with big defensive swing guards to protect him. They have vets like Vucevic and Caruso that make too much sense for us.

[MettaWorldPanda]

C Nikola Vucevic 6’10
PF Bam Adebayo 6’9
SF Jimmy Butler 6’7
SG Alex Caruso 6’5
PG Terry Rozier 6’1

Even with a subtle trade for Vucevic and Caruso look how much more balanced our lineup becomes. Bam has a big rugged big in Vucevic who knows how to screen, rebound, and shoot 3’s. Allows Bam to flourish as a 4. Caruso brings a three point defensive presence to allow Rozier to just concentrate on getting rim pressure with two big targets to get the ball. Just let Rozier cook without having to worry about appeasing Herro with ball in his hands.

[carnageta]

No, you don't have to live with heat-checks from a player who's TS% is below the league average and is a terrible defender at 30 mil a year.

The league average for TS% this year was .580.
Miami as a team has a TS% of .578 which was good for 16th in the NBA and overall under the league average.
Miami without Herro's stats get them to league average for TS% at .580.

The league average for calculated ORTG was 115.3
Miami's calculated ORTG was 114.
Herro's calculated ORTG was 108 (which is about what he's given Miami the last 3 years).

If Herro were a 2 way player, it wouldn't be as bad, but he's being paid 30 million a year as a known negative defender, so the expectation is that he'll be an efficient scorer on the other end and that's not happening nor has it every happened and he's been in the NBA for now a half a decade meaning he's had 5 offseasons to work with professional trainers to become a better player for Miami and although he's gotten better in some situations, he's basically giving Miami the same numbers except he's shooting more.

I'm not so sure Rozier was the answer although I think Rozier was brought in to replace Herro's numbers on a little cheaper contract and being a little bit better defender than Herro. Rozier's first few weeks with Miami, he had 0 practices with his new teammates and it looked like it, his stats were bad but his last 21 games after missing 4 games (Miami won all 4 of those games), he put up 18.2 pts, 4.2 ast, 4.0 reb on .561 TS which are basically Herro numbers but making 4-5 million less than Herro. It's quite possible that with an offseason Spoelstra can better gameplan for using Rozier but with him never having a TS% .575 I'm not sure he's going to be any better than what Herro was for Miami (if he's basically replacing Herro's shots next year).

league average TS% (for a guard) was 57%. Herro shot 56%. With a smarter shot selection Herro could definitely improve his TS%.

Well, here's to season 6 to hope for that change to finally happen!

How many more years do I have to keep reading about how these big changes are coming for Herro? Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable at this point... probably not, at least not in Miami.

Haha, my guy, no one is saying big changes are coming for Tyler Herro. And 'big changes' are not needed for his game. A smarter shot selection = more ball movement, less ISO, less mid-range shots and more 3pt shots. This is a rather small adjustment Herro (and the coaching staff) can help implement that would greatly improve not only his own efficiency, but the overall team's efficiency as well.

I'm not saying he's going to be a star, but I think Herro CAN play winning basketball.

By all means, if we can trade him for Donovan, Trae, even Ingram - I'm all for it. With that being said, Herro is not being paid as much as those guys, and in an ideal world you would rather actually flip Rozier for one of those players if you could (but you likely can't because Herro has more value around the league than Terry).

[MettaWorldPanda]

league average TS% (for a guard) was 57%. Herro shot 56%. With a smarter shot selection Herro could definitely improve his TS%.

Well, here's to season 6 to hope for that change to finally happen!

How many more years do I have to keep reading about how these big changes are coming for Herro? Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable at this point... probably not, at least not in Miami.

Haha, my guy, no one is saying big changes are coming for Tyler Herro. And 'big changes' are not needed for his game. A smarter shot selection = more ball movement, less ISO, less mid-range shots and more 3pt shots. This is a rather small adjustment Herro (and the coaching staff) can help implement that would greatly improve not only his own efficiency, but the overall team's efficiency as well.

I'm not saying he's going to be a star, but I think Herro CAN play winning basketball.

By all means, if we can trade him for Donovan, Trae, even Ingram - I'm all for it. With that being said, Herro is not being paid as much as those guys, and in an ideal world you would rather actually flip Rozier for one of those players if you could (but you likely can't because Herro has more value around the league than Terry).

If Herro could just be placed in the Donte DiVencenzo type role then I think he will be able to find true success. It's really annoying when he's constantly thrusted into this playmaking role that never seems sustainable outside a few games here and there. I think the ship has sailed for that to happen here so he should be dealt to a place where it will be more accepting for him to take that backseat. We gave him too much control here just to take it back. It would cause an ill dynamic

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Rockets offered Jalen Green and several 1sts to the Nets (the Nets picks in the harden trade) for Bridges and they turned it down

[carnageta]

Well, here's to season 6 to hope for that change to finally happen!

How many more years do I have to keep reading about how these big changes are coming for Herro? Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable at this point... probably not, at least not in Miami.

Haha, my guy, no one is saying big changes are coming for Tyler Herro. And 'big changes' are not needed for his game. A smarter shot selection = more ball movement, less ISO, less mid-range shots and more 3pt shots. This is a rather small adjustment Herro (and the coaching staff) can help implement that would greatly improve not only his own efficiency, but the overall team's efficiency as well.

I'm not saying he's going to be a star, but I think Herro CAN play winning basketball.

By all means, if we can trade him for Donovan, Trae, even Ingram - I'm all for it. With that being said, Herro is not being paid as much as those guys, and in an ideal world you would rather actually flip Rozier for one of those players if you could (but you likely can't because Herro has more value around the league than Terry).

If Herro could just be placed in the Donte DiVencenzo type role then I think he will be able to find true success. It's really annoying when he's constantly thrusted into this playmaking role that never seems sustainable outside a few games here and there. I think the ship has sailed for that to happen here so he should be dealt to a place where it will be more accepting for him to take that backseat. We gave him too much control here just to take it back. It would cause an ill dynamic

I agree. He'll have to take a backseat. The Heat have tried to morph him into something that he is not (at this time).

I'm glad we experimented with it, however. It's better to know then not know. If we didn't try to hand him the keys and run the offence, many would complain how we're 'limiting his growth'.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Rockets offered Jalen Green and several 1sts to the Nets (the Nets picks in the harden trade) for Bridges and they turned it down

They have a good chance at adding a decent player this offseason with the monster expiring of Simmons. I would have taken the Rockets deal though but maybe they don't like Jalen Green. BK is a darkhorse to make a big trade happen. They have some recently young drafted players(Whitehead and Clowney, , picks, and 40 million of Simmons expiring to put in play.