Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0

[greg4012]

Herro is the younger more talented player over Duncan. You move Duncan who’s about to be 30 making close to 20 million who’s a one way player that can be replaced. Strus proved that. We can find another Strus on the cheap that compliments Herro.

i honestly like Duncan over Herro

duncan has proven he comes in clutch in playoff games,
and his chemistry with Bam is incredible

plus his gravity as a 3pt sniper, that can get hot and single handedly win you the game if he gets going

id get rid of herro before i get rid of duncan imo

It’s easier to get rid of Duncan and find another Duncan than it is to get rid of Herro and find equal value for Herro.

But we can presumably get more value back from Herro.

Interesting predicament. Hopefully both fully buy into their roles and thrive. As I don't expect either to be traded this season.

It would be real nice to see this Heat team shift to a new gear as a 3-point shooting group. The personnel is in place for it.

[AirP.]

My worry is chemistry. Terry is not a natural point guard. My concern is the Heat needs a natural point guard. But I will give it time

Terry will be fine for most the team, he'll be taking over that scoring PG role Nunn and Vincent have been doing in recent years, he'll just do it at a better level, the only issue I can see is Herro and his role for the last year and a half. Even if Herro goes into an off-ball version like we saw last game or even going back to 6th man, his contract is a whole lot of money for offensive only off guard or 6th man for a team that probably doesn't want to stay in the tax. If Miami were comfortable being in the tax there'd be no issue, but I don't see that for multiple years.

Nunn was never the point guard. He was being used as a shooting guard. Butler was the primary point then Dragic. Butler was worn out. Vincent was a bad point guard. It got to a point where Spo was using Bam at point last season and throughout the playoffs. And it wore out Bam. Its been an issue that has limited this offense.

He was in the PG position which is what I'm talking about, same for Vincent (who was a SG who worked on becoming a PG) and soon to be the same for Rozier, they're all combo guards that lean towards being smaller scoring SGs which Spoelstra seems to like using although they tried utilizing Lowry for a bit which went sideways/out the window when Herro started and "needed" the ball more making Lowry just a bad combo scoring guard which he is not. I guess it's always possible Rozier in the future moves to the scoring 6th man role.

I'm not sure how Spoelstra will alter the offense this season, but I'm really interested in what he decides to do when he has a whole offseason to figure out the best way to move forward with this roster. Knowing what he has in Jaquez Jr and the addition of Rozier to the mix should allow Spoelstra to lower Butler's expected role to one he can maintain all season long (maybe fewer sleepwalking games with an overall lesser role).

[greg4012]

Terry will be fine for most the team, he'll be taking over that scoring PG role Nunn and Vincent have been doing in recent years, he'll just do it at a better level, the only issue I can see is Herro and his role for the last year and a half. Even if Herro goes into an off-ball version like we saw last game or even going back to 6th man, his contract is a whole lot of money for offensive only off guard or 6th man for a team that probably doesn't want to stay in the tax. If Miami were comfortable being in the tax there'd be no issue, but I don't see that for multiple years.

Nunn was never the point guard. He was being used as a shooting guard. Butler was the primary point then Dragic. Butler was worn out. Vincent was a bad point guard. It got to a point where Spo was using Bam at point last season and throughout the playoffs. And it wore out Bam. Its been an issue that has limited this offense.

He was in the PG position which is what I'm talking about, same for Vincent (who was a SG who worked on becoming a PG) and soon to be the same for Rozier, they're all combo guards that lean towards being smaller scoring SGs which Spoelstra seems to like using although they tried utilizing Lowry for a bit which went sideways/out the window when Herro started and "needed" the ball more making Lowry just a bad combo scoring guard which he is not.

I do wonder if it was Herro needing the ball more so much as it was an offense inherently stagnating when a floor general PG has zero interest in shooting or getting into the paint. When defenses get the book on that being the case for a player, the way they defend drastically changes and chokes out the team. The ballhandler always needs to be a threat to score or gain court position. If not, defenses can cheat and choke you out.

I like to think Herro was just the willing and available option for the Heat to turn to. We shall see.

[AirP.]

Nunn was never the point guard. He was being used as a shooting guard. Butler was the primary point then Dragic. Butler was worn out. Vincent was a bad point guard. It got to a point where Spo was using Bam at point last season and throughout the playoffs. And it wore out Bam. Its been an issue that has limited this offense.

He was in the PG position which is what I'm talking about, same for Vincent (who was a SG who worked on becoming a PG) and soon to be the same for Rozier, they're all combo guards that lean towards being smaller scoring SGs which Spoelstra seems to like using although they tried utilizing Lowry for a bit which went sideways/out the window when Herro started and "needed" the ball more making Lowry just a bad combo scoring guard which he is not.

I do wonder if it was Herro needing the ball more so much as it was an offense inherently stagnating when a floor general PG has zero interest in shooting or getting into the paint. When defenses get the book on that being the case for a player, the way they defend drastically changes and chokes out the team. The ballhandler always needs to be a threat to score or gain court position. If not, defenses can cheat and choke you out.

I like to think Herro was just the willing and available option for the Heat to turn to. We shall see.

Didn't anyone think it was odd that when a lot of players were out that Lowry was able to produce but when most of the main guys were back he turned into an off-ball PG throwing hockey assists that never got into the flow of the game? It seemed pretty obvious that was going on but even so, that meant he was a bad fit for the team.

Rozier will be interesting, he's being brought in because of his scoring, so I don't know if he'll just keep firing away with Miami early on or will try to "fit" with the rest of the team, I'd hope he comes in firing away AND trying to play solid defense again. This doesn't look like a 1 year thing with him since he's not expiring so Miami has to have some plans on how they will switch things up in the future to best use him. Wouldn't even be surprised for this season if Rozier goes to scoring 6th man and both Herro and Richardson start. On moving Herro to 6th man puts this team at a crossroads with Herro for now and the future so I doubt that happens, but you never know.

[AirP.]

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[MettaWorldPanda]

We are currently 8.5 million into the tax line with projected bill of 13.9

Miami deals

Duncan Robinson 18.1
2026 2nd rd pick LAL

to Utah for

Kelly Okynyk 12.1(Expiring)

Total savings in deal: 6 million

Total money over tax: 2.5 million

If we can flush out Bryant’s 2.5 and Dru Smith 1.8 in a small trade we can actually get out of the tax all together and probably still have money to convert prorated two ways.

[twix2500]

This past month of December the Off and Def Ratings were;
107.5 OffRtg, 111.7 DefRtg

Not gonna be hard to beat that... I hope

I will be judging the success of the offense on how it was running during that stretch when Herro got hurt.
The OffRtg and DefRtg were;
118.9 OffRtg, 109.9 DefRtg

K. Lowry - J. Butler - B. Adebayo - D. Robinson - H. Highsmith
128.2 OffRtg, 112.6 DefRtg

That would be equavalent to making the Heat the 7th best offense in the league and the 2nd best defense in the league. Playing at that rate of success will make the Heat contenders. Clean slate from here, I will give the Heat 5 games to figure it out before getting concerned.

[AirP.]

Rozier is yielding 1.11 points per possession on 7.6 opportunities per game as a pick-and-roll ball-handler this season, not far from Tyrese Haliburton's production on similar plays for the Indiana Pacers. And this was on the Hornets. Imagine what Rozier might be able to accomplish with Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra orchestrating the action, Adebayo and Butler setting screens and Duncan Robinson spotted up at the arc.

Rozier does not need the ball to be effective, either. He has shared playmaking duties with LaMelo Ball for the past four years and annually found his way to 20 points per game. Rozier has not gotten the cleanest looks in Charlotte's offense — nobody does — but when opponents sag four or more feet from him, he is shooting 38% on 5.7 3-point attempts per night. He should see more of those chances in the Heat's offense.

Rozier's backcourt pairing with Tyler Herro could present some defensive issues. Rozier is not a great defender, but he scraps with athleticism, and he is no worse than a post-prime Lowry. Lineups boasting Lowry, Herro, Butler and Bam Adebayo outscored opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions in their limited time together this season. It turns out Butler and Adebayo can mask many of Miami's defensive inefficiencies. Remove Lowry, and the Heat's top trio was still +7.9 points per 100 possessions. Add Rozier, and they can expect the offense to improve enough to challenge any shortened rotation come playoff time.

https://sports.yahoo.com/terry-rozier-is-miamis-big-swing-how-does-he-fit-the-heat-culture-185007876.html

[Lennyzinho]

Watch on YouTube

I need to preface by saying f**k the ringer and their blatant boston bias.

With that said, their production value on videos like this are often quality, and it's worth sharing this video because they're covering a topic that deserves the shine: our very own Jaime Jaquez:

wth happened to herro? lookin' like he hasn't eaten since he heard about the rozier trade. nice to see him out with JJJ tho.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Numbers to dive into to better assess Terry's game with less usage. He's clearly been more efficient. This has been his best season with or without Ball though.

Good sign that he's not wholly reliant on ramping up usage to contribute.

For me, it's not about Terry running the whole show as a true floor general PG (that's not his game). It's about ramping up what he does best on-ball and implementing that as a foundational addition to the offense. Not too different to the Dragic dynamic when paired with Jimmy. Both thrive in pick and roll.

The beauty is that Terry is a superior pull-up threat and Bam is a much more evolved big man for the roll game.

1. Terry-Bam pick and rolls
2. Bam-Duncan DHO
3. Jimmy matchup hunting and iso work
4. Shooters constantly moving off ball to find clean looks
5. Tyler secondary playmaking off activity (and more minutes with the bench unit running the show with Jaime)

It’s likely not going to happen but I’m going to be very disappointed if Terry isn’t getting the current usage and shot attempts that Herro has, the reason is because it matches Terrys usage and shot attempts (a little less usage than Herro) when Lamelo was out where he was averaging 25-4-7.5. Factor in him playing under the best coach on the league; one of the best roll partners in the league in Bam, and the highly impactful Jimmy his efficiency could increase which could lead to higher scoring and/or playmaking. Maybe not and he just hits his numbers minus Lamelo with us, that is still huge for this team. Swapping Lowry out with someone who can potentially give you 25-4-8 a night is a massive improvement

[twix2500]

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Numbers to dive into to better assess Terry's game with less usage. He's clearly been more efficient. This has been his best season with or without Ball though.

Good sign that he's not wholly reliant on ramping up usage to contribute.

For me, it's not about Terry running the whole show as a true floor general PG (that's not his game). It's about ramping up what he does best on-ball and implementing that as a foundational addition to the offense. Not too different to the Dragic dynamic when paired with Jimmy. Both thrive in pick and roll.

The beauty is that Terry is a superior pull-up threat and Bam is a much more evolved big man for the roll game.

1. Terry-Bam pick and rolls
2. Bam-Duncan DHO
3. Jimmy matchup hunting and iso work
4. Shooters constantly moving off ball to find clean looks
5. Tyler secondary playmaking off activity (and more minutes with the bench unit running the show with Jaime)

It’s likely not going to happen but I’m going to be very disappointed if Terry isn’t getting the current usage and shot attempts that Herro has, the reason is because it matches Terrys usage and shot attempts (a little less usage than Herro) when Lamelo was out where he was averaging 25-4-7.5. Factor in him playing under the best coach on the league; one of the best roll partners in the league in Bam, and the highly impactful Jimmy his efficiency could increase which could lead to higher scoring and/or playmaking. Maybe not and he just hits his numbers minus Lamelo with us, that is still huge for this team. Swapping Lowry out with someone who can potentially give you 25-4-8 a night is a massive improvement

That much usage and that way of usage there wil be players who will have to sacrifice (Adebayo)

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Numbers to dive into to better assess Terry's game with less usage. He's clearly been more efficient. This has been his best season with or without Ball though.

Good sign that he's not wholly reliant on ramping up usage to contribute.

For me, it's not about Terry running the whole show as a true floor general PG (that's not his game). It's about ramping up what he does best on-ball and implementing that as a foundational addition to the offense. Not too different to the Dragic dynamic when paired with Jimmy. Both thrive in pick and roll.

The beauty is that Terry is a superior pull-up threat and Bam is a much more evolved big man for the roll game.

1. Terry-Bam pick and rolls
2. Bam-Duncan DHO
3. Jimmy matchup hunting and iso work
4. Shooters constantly moving off ball to find clean looks
5. Tyler secondary playmaking off activity (and more minutes with the bench unit running the show with Jaime)

It’s likely not going to happen but I’m going to be very disappointed if Terry isn’t getting the current usage and shot attempts that Herro has, the reason is because it matches Terrys usage and shot attempts (a little less usage than Herro) when Lamelo was out where he was averaging 25-4-7.5. Factor in him playing under the best coach on the league; one of the best roll partners in the league in Bam, and the highly impactful Jimmy his efficiency could increase which could lead to higher scoring and/or playmaking. Maybe not and he just hits his numbers minus Lamelo with us, that is still huge for this team. Swapping Lowry out with someone who can potentially give you 25-4-8 a night is a massive improvement

That much usage and that way of usage there wil be players who will have to sacrifice (Adebayo)

I knew he’d be the odd man out when we finally got a scorer anyways, it’s unfortunate and it’s wrong but it is what it is. They have to justify paying Herro somehow and you can’t do that if he’s not getting his shot attempts because he doesn’t impact the game anywhere else if he isn’t scoring as we saw last game in Orlando and were reminded of any night he has an off shooting game (quite often).

All this would be solved if Herro came off the bench for a specialist and we started Highsmith or maybe Martin at the 4 though. Won’t happen unfortunately but that’s how you get everyone their touches and shot attempts

[twix2500]

What do you think is the target for fga average for Bam, Butler, Herro and Rozier going forward?

[RexBoyWonder]

With Terry and Hero starting, my money is on Spo starting Highsmith too. We really need to hit his 3's and not kill the spacing, he's a great fit if he can do that consistently.

IDN man, having Martin/J-Rich/Duncan/JJJ on the bench seems unbalanced and wasteful if we have to start a Highsmith caliber player. I like Him but he's more suited to be a backup.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

What do you think is the target for fga average for Bam, Butler, Herro and Rozier going forward?

What it should be is Rozier 18, Bam 16, Jimmy 14, Herro 14 then change it when Jimmy starts trying.

What it probably will be is Herro 18, Rozier 14, Jimmy 13, Bam 13

[3ammy3uck3ts]

With Terry and Hero starting, my money is on Spo starting Highsmith too. We really need to hit his 3's and not kill the spacing, he's a great fit if he can do that consistently.

IDN man, having Martin/J-Rich/Duncan/JJJ on the bench seems unbalanced and wasteful if we have to start a Highsmith caliber player. I like Him but he's more suited to be a backup.

He’s a low usage defensive specialist who can hit the 3 which is the literal perfect fit next to those 4 guys in the starting lineup.

Those 4 you just mentioned on the bench plus Love if we make no other moves is a very solid and balanced 2nd unit.

[twix2500]

It’s likely not going to happen but I’m going to be very disappointed if Terry isn’t getting the current usage and shot attempts that Herro has, the reason is because it matches Terrys usage and shot attempts (a little less usage than Herro) when Lamelo was out where he was averaging 25-4-7.5. Factor in him playing under the best coach on the league; one of the best roll partners in the league in Bam, and the highly impactful Jimmy his efficiency could increase which could lead to higher scoring and/or playmaking. Maybe not and he just hits his numbers minus Lamelo with us, that is still huge for this team. Swapping Lowry out with someone who can potentially give you 25-4-8 a night is a massive improvement

That much usage and that way of usage there wil be players who will have to sacrifice (Adebayo)

I knew he’d be the odd man out when we finally got a scorer anyways, it’s unfortunate and it’s wrong but it is what it is. They have to justify paying Herro somehow and you can’t do that if he’s not getting his shot attempts because he doesn’t impact the game anywhere else if he isn’t scoring as we saw last game in Orlando and were reminded of any night he has an off shooting game (quite often).

All this would be solved if Herro came off the bench for a specialist and we started Highsmith or maybe Martin at the 4 though. Won’t happen unfortunately but that’s how you get everyone their touches and shot attempts

Thinking Rozier gonna average 24 a night here is fools gold. If Terry is your leading scorer, you are not a good team. My highest expectations is for him to average 17 to 18. I will expect this team to continue struggle in wins if Rozier and Herro are carrying the scoring load.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Let’s go!!!!!

[dshearn]

It’s easier to get rid of Duncan and find another Duncan than it is to get rid of Herro and find equal value for Herro. This chemistry fit was not needed the last two years with Duncan and Bam. Strus proved that. We finally got away from the spammy DHO offense the last few years and now everyone has a hard on for it again. Is that what we want Bam relegated too again?

There are only a few dudes who take as many 3s at the percentages that Duncan hits them at. So yeah, there are other 3 point guys to be had...but at least Duncan is a grade A top 20 by volume 3 point guy.


I think last time I looked there was maybe 5 of the top 20 3-pt guys by volume hit at 40% or better...and a huge chunk of those dudes are not gettable...dudes like Curry, Paul George, ....haliburton...

Is he replaceable? Sure.... but....I don't know how many 6-7, 40% 3 point guys are out there that will spend an entire game running all over the court trying to make something happen....

For better or worse, Duncan has some size, some skill and has been a maximum effort guy for the Heat. Replacable? Sure....but I don't know if we should approach his potential replacing with the idea anyone can do it.