Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0

[Pokuokic]

I'm telling you guys if the Heat can somehow get Maxi Kleber as the PF (and back up C) you have the best defensive tandem with him and Bam in the NBA by a massive margin, he's basically the German Bam defensively (off course not as good as Bam). He's also ok from 3 and unlike say Tucker will take them. The Mavs are looking to make moves Kleber assuming health which has been a big issue is a Miami type player and a can be a tremendous role player. Larry Nance is another one but imo he's not a good defender but better passer and another lob threat with a decent 3pt.

[IceColdCubano]

I'm not about to argue this. Duncan was half way out of town every game last year, now he has "lead to winning". We don't know what we have until JImmy is showing up consistently. That also affects how the other players play.

Could you share a statistic or metric that demonstrates Herro's strong performance when playing alongside the starting lineup?

What's the point? Everyone is just cherry picking samples/stats to support their narratives. It's very unlikely anyone here knows how to analyze the data properly, it has a lot of variance and a lot of noise in it.

Some are already posting how Terry is 39% on pull up 3s this season and celebrating like this is what he is going to be. This is so not what can be expected from him, when he is < 35% for his career.

It's all just narratives and it is quite frankly very annoying how these are pushed with very naive and often cherry picked stats samples.

You'd think a well paid professional coaching staff, who observes their players daily, does film analysis and looks at the analytic numbers knows what it is doing.

I'll jump into this conversation because I love stats, and analyze them like crazy trying my best to make sense of what they eventually mean. There is way too much noise in overall efficiency and plus/minus stats to begin with, then you add the fact that Miami has had a turnstile of starters and bench players in and out of the rotation all year it just looks like spaghetti numbers with no actual context behind them.

I say this because a player like Nikola Jovic has the teams highest Plus Minus on most nights and overall from a team standpoint however when you watch the game you come out saying he does a lot of things that help our team, but ultimately he isn't there yet where it leads to win or a convincing win, the game has been a struggle. You look at Herro and his bad efficiency numbers and see that nobody else is bloody capable of getting a bucket and is asked to do way too much. Even in games, where Jimmy and Bam are in they take a back seat to Herro and let him gun, Even though Jimmy is Alpha enough to go get his and freeze Herro when he wants. Bam has taking too much a liking to his midrange game and when its not working he just settles and goes sets screens for DHO's instead without going at his man. Herro is not a great playmaker either and has been asked to take that burden on for this team due to its lack of PG or Back Up PG in the rotation.

Also Herro's win vs Loss record this year is heavily influenced with the fact that most of those losses came when the majority of our guys where injured earlier in the year and we didn't have any wings available to play defense in the back line. I am not saying I wouldn't trade Herro for the right piece or wouldn't like him to play a Klay Thompson role instead we just haven't had the opportunity until now. I expect Terry to make this a much better half court team, and finally take on the ball handling duties for most of the time he is on the court, Herro early in the year was looking great when he came out the gate making quick decisions, limiting his middies and doing more 3ptr's. Hopefully that returns.

[IceColdCubano]

I am in no way saying Rozier is equal to Dame, and I am definitely one to question stats on bad teams where the other teams defensive effort may not be there, but I was amazed to compare their current season and see just how identical their stats are. And that goes for almost every stat including advanced (other than WS because Charlotte ain't winning). Most of the difference (again, statistically) is Dame gets to the line at twice the rate.

Can only hope Roziers numbers translate on a winning team rather than being fools gold. The talk around him sounds like he has a winners mentality, so we'll see

I think you can look at this in so many different ways, on one side of the ball, Dame Lillard at his age may not be playing at top gear, saving himself for the playoffs, seeing where he stands in the standings, and how good of a team he has around him there is very little incentive to go ballz to the wall and get injured. However there have been games this year were you can see him turn up his gear when it was needed and his clutch and shot making is second only to Steph Curry. Id expect Lillard to be a different monster in the playoffs alltogether, scary to think that his normal game averages are on par with others players best, that is the level in which is he is as a star.

You could look at the other side of the coin and say well Lillard does have Giannis gravity pulling doubles and tripples so he should be expected to perform better, and also has a shot blocking center in the back line. However you can clearly see he isn't doing a very good job of playing any defense at the point of attack, he lets everyone get by him on most nights, luckily for him he has both Giannis and Lopez waiting in the back, but their the team defense has plummeted.

You look on Terry side of the coin and talk about being on a bad team putting up stats, but also there isn't another guard on the team that at least is healthy most of the time to help get him some gravity and space like Lillard does in Milwaukee, all his scoring is earned in the sense it comes harder. Think about teams coming into town, and having him as the number one priority of putting a stop to, in context that would make his stats that more endearing too. I think were all reading too much into it, and will be surprised how well he will fit in our team structure. Having Gravity where Herro is tightly covered, Jimmy is tightly covered, and Bam is tightly covered, it will also open up his playmaking to the point he could be increasing his passing and assist efficiency while his ppg drops due to usage.

[greg4012]

I'm telling you guys if the Heat can somehow get Maxi Kleber as the PF (and back up C) you have the best defensive tandem with him and Bam in the NBA by a massive margin, he's basically the German Bam defensively (off course not as good as Bam). He's also ok from 3 and unlike say Tucker will take them. The Mavs are looking to make moves Kleber assuming health which has been a big issue is a Miami type player and a can be a tremendous role player. Larry Nance is another one but imo he's not a good defender but better passer and another lob threat with a decent 3pt.

Agreed that Kleber would be a nice fit. I see him as something of a Boris Diaw defensively.

Do you know how he’s looking coming back from injury? I believe he was out for months and is just coming back. Is Dallas really looking to move him?

[MettaWorldPanda]

I don’t see a trade match for Maxi Kleber. Has three more years on deal at 11 per. Unless you’re trading Duncan for him. I don’t see anything happening here even though he would be a nice fit

[twix2500]

My worry is chemistry. Terry is not a natural point guard. My concern is the Heat needs a natural point guard. Someone will have to sacrifice and be a distributor. But I will give it time

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[AirP.]

So, as of now what is it costing Miami's ownership in money being in the tax this year?

Money into the tax: $8,711,778
Penalty: $13,995,612
Non-Tax Team Share: $12,510,227

Total giving up for being in the tax for just this year: $35,217,617

That's a lot of money to just give up, if they could make another move and reduce their roster salary by 9 million more off the roster, they'd make 35 mil. To do this while maintaining the minimum 14 man roster it would take one of Robinson, Herro, Bam or Butler's contract to really do this. Although Bryant + Martin could get you there until you have to sign vet players and then you're barely back in the tax.

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[AirP.]

My worry is chemistry. Terry is not a natural point guard. My concern is the Heat needs a natural point guard. But I will give it time

Terry will be fine for most the team, he'll be taking over that scoring PG role Nunn and Vincent have been doing in recent years, he'll just do it at a better level, the only issue I can see is Herro and his role for the last year and a half. Even if Herro goes into an off-ball version like we saw last game or even going back to 6th man, his contract is a whole lot of money for offensive only off guard or 6th man for a team that probably doesn't want to stay in the tax. If Miami were comfortable being in the tax there'd be no issue, but I don't see that for multiple years.

[MiamiLoyal926]

My worry is chemistry. Terry is not a natural point guard. My concern is the Heat needs a natural point guard. But I will give it time

Terry will be fine for most the team, he'll be taking over that scoring PG role Nunn and Vincent have been doing in recent years, he'll just do it at a better level, the only issue I can see is Herro and his role for the last year and a half. Even if Herro goes into an off-ball version like we saw last game or even going back to 6th man, his contract is a whole lot of money for offensive only off guard or 6th man for a team that probably doesn't want to stay in the tax. If Miami were comfortable being in the tax there'd be no issue, but I don't see that for multiple years.

That’s a tomorrow problem. We do not have to move salary until next season’s deadline… that’s over a year to figure out the tax / 2nd apron issues of next season.

This season, it’s about maximizing the opportunity, and with Herro in particular, putting him in the situations that the advanced stats and data say he excels in. This is likely why trading for Terry was a must… despite costing a pick that locks up tradable picks for the next 5 years. I bet Spo has a plan in place already to maximize his current players using Rozier strengths, while also getting the most out of Rozier like he has out of lesser talent like Vincent.

Let’s sit back and root for Spo to turn this trade into a better version of Herro and Rozier.

[AirP.]

My worry is chemistry. Terry is not a natural point guard. My concern is the Heat needs a natural point guard. But I will give it time

Terry will be fine for most the team, he'll be taking over that scoring PG role Nunn and Vincent have been doing in recent years, he'll just do it at a better level, the only issue I can see is Herro and his role for the last year and a half. Even if Herro goes into an off-ball version like we saw last game or even going back to 6th man, his contract is a whole lot of money for offensive only off guard or 6th man for a team that probably doesn't want to stay in the tax. If Miami were comfortable being in the tax there'd be no issue, but I don't see that for multiple years.

That’s a tomorrow problem. We do not have to move salary until next season’s deadline… that’s over a year to figure out the tax / 2nd apron issues of next season.

This season, it’s about maximizing the opportunity, and with Herro in particular, putting him in the situations that the advanced stats and data say he excels in. This is likely why trading for Terry was a must… despite costing a pick that locks up tradable picks for the next 5 years. I bet Spo has a plan in place already to maximize his current players using Rozier strengths, while also getting the most out of Rozier like he has out of lesser talent like Vincent.

Let’s sit back and root for Spo to turn this trade into a better version of Herro and Rozier.

Herro more than likely is going to get less shots, have the ball less in his hands which will display his strengths less, toss in all the injuries (missing 15+ games a year at his younger age), his current long-term contract around 30 million and the "potential" factor dropping with him hitting his mid 20s, his value probably will be dropping.

Now, can he be a better off-guard version of himself for Miami? Absolutely but you're paying a premium for that with his contract and that premium consists of going into the tax and costing ownership basically another high level player contract (30+ mil) to keep both Herro and Robinson while now having Rozier. Rozier changes the calculations. Who knows, maybe Robinson is moved to save some money. I dislike like paying a lot of money for a 1 way player who isn't dominate in that 1 way, it's not a good value to me.

Think about this... if Herro is going to be playing an off-guard spot up role, why not just keep a cheaper version in Robinson? Now if Spoelstra moves Herro to a scoring 6th man, that's very interesting to me, even if he's overpaid if Miami is willing to keep paying the tax.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Heat used a 2nd round pick to get off Dedmon’s 4.7 million dollar salary last year to the Spurs. Bryant and Smith equal 4.3 million. I don’t think we are done shaving this tax bill. Especially with Dru Smith’s dead money 1.8 and needing Bryant’s player option 2.5 off the books. Trading Martin and his 6.8 is not going to happen. His play and meaning to this team at that price weighs so much more. Very similar to the worth Vincent and Strus brought last year on there cheap deals. Worst case next year you work a S&T for a 2nd like we did with Strus.

[AirP.]

I do wonder on a possible follow up move or even this summer. How about the 25-year-old Grant Williams? His minutes are dropping and seems to not be a good fit with Dallas. He's on a 4-year contract from 12 to 14 mil per year.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Terry will be fine for most the team, he'll be taking over that scoring PG role Nunn and Vincent have been doing in recent years, he'll just do it at a better level, the only issue I can see is Herro and his role for the last year and a half. Even if Herro goes into an off-ball version like we saw last game or even going back to 6th man, his contract is a whole lot of money for offensive only off guard or 6th man for a team that probably doesn't want to stay in the tax. If Miami were comfortable being in the tax there'd be no issue, but I don't see that for multiple years.

That’s a tomorrow problem. We do not have to move salary until next season’s deadline… that’s over a year to figure out the tax / 2nd apron issues of next season.

This season, it’s about maximizing the opportunity, and with Herro in particular, putting him in the situations that the advanced stats and data say he excels in. This is likely why trading for Terry was a must… despite costing a pick that locks up tradable picks for the next 5 years. I bet Spo has a plan in place already to maximize his current players using Rozier strengths, while also getting the most out of Rozier like he has out of lesser talent like Vincent.

Let’s sit back and root for Spo to turn this trade into a better version of Herro and Rozier.

Herro more than likely is going to get less shots, have the ball less in his hands which will display his strengths less, toss in all the injuries (missing 15+ games a year at his younger age), his current long-term contract around 30 million and the "potential" factor dropping with him hitting his mid 20s, his value probably will be dropping.

Now, can he be a better off-guard version of himself for Miami? Absolutely but you're paying a premium for that with his contract and that premium consists of going into the tax and costing ownership basically another high level player contract (30+ mil) to keep both Herro and Robinson while now having Rozier. Rozier changes the calculations. Who knows, maybe Robinson is moved to save some money. I dislike like paying a lot of money for a 1 way player who isn't dominate in that 1 way, it's not a good value to me.

Think about this... if Herro is going to be playing an off-guard spot up role, why not just keep a cheaper version in Robinson? Now if Spoelstra moves Herro to a scoring 6th man, that's very interesting to me, even if he's overpaid if Miami is willing to keep paying the tax.

Herro is the younger more talented player over Duncan. You move Duncan who’s about to be 30 making close to 20 million who’s a one way player that can be replaced. Strus proved that. We can find another Strus on the cheap that compliments Herro.

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

That’s a tomorrow problem. We do not have to move salary until next season’s deadline… that’s over a year to figure out the tax / 2nd apron issues of next season.

This season, it’s about maximizing the opportunity, and with Herro in particular, putting him in the situations that the advanced stats and data say he excels in. This is likely why trading for Terry was a must… despite costing a pick that locks up tradable picks for the next 5 years. I bet Spo has a plan in place already to maximize his current players using Rozier strengths, while also getting the most out of Rozier like he has out of lesser talent like Vincent.

Let’s sit back and root for Spo to turn this trade into a better version of Herro and Rozier.

Spoiler:

Herro more than likely is going to get less shots, have the ball less in his hands which will display his strengths less, toss in all the injuries (missing 15+ games a year at his younger age), his current long-term contract around 30 million and the "potential" factor dropping with him hitting his mid 20s, his value probably will be dropping.

Now, can he be a better off-guard version of himself for Miami? Absolutely but you're paying a premium for that with his contract and that premium consists of going into the tax and costing ownership basically another high level player contract (30+ mil) to keep both Herro and Robinson while now having Rozier. Rozier changes the calculations. Who knows, maybe Robinson is moved to save some money. I dislike like paying a lot of money for a 1 way player who isn't dominate in that 1 way, it's not a good value to me.

Think about this... if Herro is going to be playing an off-guard spot up role, why not just keep a cheaper version in Robinson? Now if Spoelstra moves Herro to a scoring 6th man, that's very interesting to me, even if he's overpaid if Miami is willing to keep paying the tax.

Herro is the younger more talented player over Duncan. You move Duncan who’s about to be 30 making close to 20 million who’s a one way player that can be replaced. Strus proved that. We can find another Strus on the cheap that compliments Herro.

If you're willing to keep paying the tax like Miami hasn't been doing until this year.

Miami now has a scoring PG for the next 2+ seasons in Rozier(could extend him), Bam will be solid now and the future, Butler should still be good for another 2 or more seasons, Jaquez Jr will surpass Herro soon (although I think it's already happened), Robinson is probably going to be around this level for a while since he's not athletic and is a great shooter, and who knows if Jovic will become a good player, why not try to find some team to cash out on Herro and get some more assets to keep building on this team? Herro is routinely in the bottom half of the team for efficiency, bad on defense on a defensive team and probably will watch his PPG drop next to a scoring PG, why not try to sell high why you can?

Based on his current scoring rate/efficiency (which is close to his career average), if his FGA drops to say Butler levels around 14 attempts (dropping ~1 shot per quarter), you're looking at him putting up 16-18 ppg with bad defense. That's not a good value.

[greg4012]

Watch on YouTube

I need to preface by saying f**k the ringer and their blatant boston bias.

With that said, their production value on videos like this are often quality, and it's worth sharing this video because they're covering a topic that deserves the shine: our very own Jaime Jaquez:

[Grumpy Heat Fan]

That’s a tomorrow problem. We do not have to move salary until next season’s deadline… that’s over a year to figure out the tax / 2nd apron issues of next season.

This season, it’s about maximizing the opportunity, and with Herro in particular, putting him in the situations that the advanced stats and data say he excels in. This is likely why trading for Terry was a must… despite costing a pick that locks up tradable picks for the next 5 years. I bet Spo has a plan in place already to maximize his current players using Rozier strengths, while also getting the most out of Rozier like he has out of lesser talent like Vincent.

Let’s sit back and root for Spo to turn this trade into a better version of Herro and Rozier.

Herro more than likely is going to get less shots, have the ball less in his hands which will display his strengths less, toss in all the injuries (missing 15+ games a year at his younger age), his current long-term contract around 30 million and the "potential" factor dropping with him hitting his mid 20s, his value probably will be dropping.

Now, can he be a better off-guard version of himself for Miami? Absolutely but you're paying a premium for that with his contract and that premium consists of going into the tax and costing ownership basically another high level player contract (30+ mil) to keep both Herro and Robinson while now having Rozier. Rozier changes the calculations. Who knows, maybe Robinson is moved to save some money. I dislike like paying a lot of money for a 1 way player who isn't dominate in that 1 way, it's not a good value to me.

Think about this... if Herro is going to be playing an off-guard spot up role, why not just keep a cheaper version in Robinson? Now if Spoelstra moves Herro to a scoring 6th man, that's very interesting to me, even if he's overpaid if Miami is willing to keep paying the tax.

Herro is the younger more talented player over Duncan. You move Duncan who’s about to be 30 making close to 20 million who’s a one way player that can be replaced. Strus proved that. We can find another Strus on the cheap that compliments Herro.

i honestly like Duncan over Herro

duncan has proven he comes in clutch in playoff games,
and his chemistry with Bam is incredible

plus his gravity as a 3pt sniper, that can get hot and single handedly win you the game if he gets going

and then we have the problem that herro is young and cant seem to stay healthy. last year another playoff run with no herro.

id get rid of herro before i get rid of duncan imo

[contract]

My worry is chemistry. Terry is not a natural point guard. My concern is the Heat needs a natural point guard. Someone will have to sacrifice and be a distributor. But I will give it time

I see Terry and Herro tripping over each other. Both of them put up points by taking more shots than they should. Terry being more efficient, but less of a 3pt threat. It's hard to see either of them taking as many shots as they were before. That creates a problem for Herro, because if he's not scoring in bunches, then he's just a more expensive version of Duncan.

But lets see what Spo can whip up.

[twix2500]

My worry is chemistry. Terry is not a natural point guard. My concern is the Heat needs a natural point guard. But I will give it time

Terry will be fine for most the team, he'll be taking over that scoring PG role Nunn and Vincent have been doing in recent years, he'll just do it at a better level, the only issue I can see is Herro and his role for the last year and a half. Even if Herro goes into an off-ball version like we saw last game or even going back to 6th man, his contract is a whole lot of money for offensive only off guard or 6th man for a team that probably doesn't want to stay in the tax. If Miami were comfortable being in the tax there'd be no issue, but I don't see that for multiple years.

Nunn was never the point guard. He was being used as a shooting guard. Butler was the primary point then Dragic. Butler was worn out. Vincent was a bad point guard. It got to a point where Spo was using Bam at point last season and throughout the playoffs. And it wore out Bam. Its been an issue that has limited this offense.

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[greg4012]

Read on Twitter

Numbers to dive into to better assess Terry's game with less usage. He's clearly been more efficient. This has been his best season with or without Ball though.

Good sign that he's not wholly reliant on ramping up usage to contribute.

For me, it's not about Terry running the whole show as a true floor general PG (that's not his game). It's about ramping up what he does best on-ball and implementing that as a foundational addition to the offense. Not too different to the Dragic dynamic when paired with Jimmy. Both thrive in pick and roll.

The beauty is that Terry is a superior pull-up threat and Bam is a much more evolved big man for the roll game.

1. Terry-Bam pick and rolls
2. Bam-Duncan DHO
3. Jimmy matchup hunting and iso work
4. Shooters constantly moving off ball to find clean looks
5. Tyler secondary playmaking off activity (and more minutes with the bench unit running the show with Jaime)

[MettaWorldPanda]

Herro more than likely is going to get less shots, have the ball less in his hands which will display his strengths less, toss in all the injuries (missing 15+ games a year at his younger age), his current long-term contract around 30 million and the "potential" factor dropping with him hitting his mid 20s, his value probably will be dropping.

Now, can he be a better off-guard version of himself for Miami? Absolutely but you're paying a premium for that with his contract and that premium consists of going into the tax and costing ownership basically another high level player contract (30+ mil) to keep both Herro and Robinson while now having Rozier. Rozier changes the calculations. Who knows, maybe Robinson is moved to save some money. I dislike like paying a lot of money for a 1 way player who isn't dominate in that 1 way, it's not a good value to me.

Think about this... if Herro is going to be playing an off-guard spot up role, why not just keep a cheaper version in Robinson? Now if Spoelstra moves Herro to a scoring 6th man, that's very interesting to me, even if he's overpaid if Miami is willing to keep paying the tax.

Herro is the younger more talented player over Duncan. You move Duncan who’s about to be 30 making close to 20 million who’s a one way player that can be replaced. Strus proved that. We can find another Strus on the cheap that compliments Herro.

i honestly like Duncan over Herro

duncan has proven he comes in clutch in playoff games,
and his chemistry with Bam is incredible

plus his gravity as a 3pt sniper, that can get hot and single handedly win you the game if he gets going

id get rid of herro before i get rid of duncan imo

It’s easier to get rid of Duncan and find another Duncan than it is to get rid of Herro and find equal value for Herro. This chemistry fit was not needed the last two years with Duncan and Bam. Strus proved that. We finally got away from the spammy DHO offense the last few years and now everyone has a hard on for it again. Is that what we want Bam relegated too again?