AirP. wrote:tacosman wrote:MettaWorldPanda wrote:No way this team is going to tear it down. Like zero percent. Too many reasons and i just broke down the draft ramifications
I 100% agree they won't. And said as much. But they probably should.......honestly it's more realistic for the heat to trend to 35-40 wins in the next season or two than 54+ wins.
Butler will be 35 next season. And 36 the next. Just because *at times* in playoffs 2 years ago and then 4 years ago he played like a much better player than his overall status in the league, doesn't mean it would happen again even if he were 31 and 33 again. And he's not going to be 31 or 33. He's going to be 35 and 36.
Then the rest of the roster outside Bam isn't very good. Herro is not a winning player and has been on the trade block forever(like literally forever) because everyone including the heat know that. Then the rest of the roster just isn't any good.
When Jaime Jasquez(a low ceiling late 1st round draft pick) is getting > 28 mins a game, then that pretty much says it all.
They are going to do what they are going to do, and you're right it almost certainly won't be to tank. But I just don't see any way they can be really good going forward like this......this was a play-in team the last two years for a reason, and when one of your main players is going to be 35+ next year you aren't trending up as a play-in team either.
They'll do what they always do, continue to try to win, develop players, move picks for proven players and try to prepare themselves to get the high-level player they need through trade or free agency. Miami gets interest from some of the highest-level players because of their location and these high-level players know they don't have to worry about the FO pushing them to tank and wasting some of their best seasons.
Just in the last 5 years Miami's had 4 higher level players trying to force their way to Miami, Butler forced his way to Miami, we all know about Lillard trying to force his way to Miami this last off-season, Bradley Beal also tried to get to Miami this last off-season and Miami said no because he wouldn't tear up his no-trade clause and of course Oladipo was pushing to get to Miami for his 3rd contract but was injured early on in his 2nd contract and they screwed up his operation so Miami got damaged goods.
Even if you tank you aren't guaranteed a great player, Maxey was out there for Miami to draft and they went with Precious, they had an offer on the table of multiple 1st for the Winslow's draft position and took Winslow who was good but not what they had hoped for.
All Miami has to tweak to how they conduct themselves as a franchise is to quit overpaying for marginal talent on their roster that just happened to do well in the role Spoelstra put them in. There's a reason why most players that leave Miami never do as well, it's because Spoelstra put them in a position to succeed while other teams just slot them into a role and hope they succeed.
Miami does things the right way and unlike some franchises, is in a great location that players want to go to (hence so many players in the Miami area in the off-season).
sure being in a desirable location helps(some, although it's not as big of an advantage as some would like to believe), but at the end of the day you generally need to have good stuff to offer the other team even if the star they are moving wants miami.
And we've seen that again and again lately(with all the players you mention above)- for various reasons, none since butler have come to miami(and let's be honest butler was a 'good' get but at the time he wasn't viewed as the most needle moving guy ever as he had bounced around more than a 5 year old at a bouncey pad in the couple years before that). And the biggest of those reasons was that the other teams just weren't interested in what the heat were selling.
Think back to part of the reason the lakers were able to get AD- they were bad enough for long enough to be able to move some pieces(with the draft picks and swaps) they had from high draft picks. If they had been treadmilling those years like it looks like the heat are set to do, they never get Davis. Yeah AD wanted LA, but it still a package the pelicans valued.
Right now these teams with the players you guys have desired(dame and mitchell being the classic examples) don't value your assets(minus Bam). It really is that simple.
So the question is- how is miami going to get the assets(besides the picks....which since they never tank are never going to be real good and teams know this) to get the star players who may want to go there? Because right now the path they have taken is resulting in Jaquez/Jovic type assets, and nobody is going to give up crap for that.
