Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[Enso]

I think if we get Herro off the team without getting fleeced asset or salary cap wise and just get a piece back that fits better the fan base will be happy. Doesn’t have to even be a huge needle moving piece as long as it’s just a better fitting role player.

I think that’s a realistic move we can do. What do you guys think ?

[carnageta]

Question for this room. What are yout expectations for Jovic and Jaime Jr next season?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Stay healthy. Get stronger. Better ball handling and better spot up shooting.


It's hard to say from a statistical point of view what these guys will average next season. Jaime averaged 12ppg this season but that was with a ton of injuries to our main scorers and before the acquisition of Terry Rozier. If Herro, Butler, and Rozier play in more games next season then it's entirely possible Jaime won't see a spike in his scoring numbers, and there's a possibility it may decrease as well.

I just hope this sub doesn't turn on him and start saying "He's peaked" if he's only averaging 10ppg next year on higher efficiency. However, if we sustain approximately the same number of injuries next year, then I think it's entirely possible for Jaime to average 14ppg, 5, rebounds, and 3 assists per game.

More-so the same for Niko. He should remain our full-time starter next to Bam and play around 28-30mins a game. I could see him average 10ppg, 5, rebounds, and 2 assist per game next season.

[SoFlaKingReal]

I think if we get Herro off the team without getting fleeced asset or salary cap wise and just get a piece back that fits better the fan base will be happy. Doesn’t have to even be a huge needle moving piece as long as it’s just a better fitting role player.

I think that’s a realistic move we can do. What do you guys think ?

I doubt any team will be interested in taking on Herro's contract. He is the new Duncan.

[dshearn]

I am fine with a core of Bam,Jovic, and JJJ. See what the other guys can net us to add onto that.

I am pretty much over the idea that Herro can be the engine that carries us to the post season so Jimmy can take over.

[Grumpy Heat Fan]

I have hope for this offseason. I think Riles finally saw the writing on the wall, and will make the necessary changes to get us over the top.

[Rapaz]

I have hope for this offseason. I think Riles finally saw the writing on the wall, and will make the necessary changes to get us over the top.

Son, there’s an old Louisiana proverb that I often relate to our débutantes at the Pickwick Club, and one which you would do well to heed:

Don’t hitch your hopes to an old man with shriveled balls.

[HeatFan_NC]

Size wins chips. Not Spo’s rinky dink led small ball captained by Haywood and Martin at the 4. What a joke. Please draft a Center that can shoot and move Bam to the 4.

Should we draft the center from Duke?

I would say get one of those boys from UConn. Zach Edey is intriguing but because of his slow footspeed and lack of mobility, I don't think he'd work in our system

[HeatFan_NC]

I think if we get Herro off the team without getting fleeced asset or salary cap wise and just get a piece back that fits better the fan base will be happy. Doesn’t have to even be a huge needle moving piece as long as it’s just a better fitting role player.

I think that’s a realistic move we can do. What do you guys think ?

I doubt any team will be interested in taking on Herro's contract. He is the new Duncan.

I would see if MIL would take him and Orlando Robinson for Bobby Portis and Connaughton

[HeatFan_NC]

Anthony Edward is really egood. I didn’t expect wolves to win against Denver somehow they did tonight. Wolves look like a matchup nightmare for Denver. Gordon isn’t going to be able overpowered wolves’ pf in that series and town going to make Gordon overcorrecting himself on defense. I don’t know if Miami should stay the course on developing Tyler herro, bam, Jovic, jjj. Wolves didn’t become this good overnight but over the course of the years . Wolves going to be a force for a long times.

The Wolves have benefitted from some high draft picks and decent trades over the last couple of years. Having the foresight to pair KAT with another big that can defend and rebound was a smart plan and decision. Bringing in a smart, consistent PG in Conley, Jr. was huge. Drafting Edwards (who's looking like a young Jordan now) was a wise choice!

If we can find a reliable big that can shoot, rebound and defend to pair with Bam, we'll be headed in the right direction.

[IceColdCubano]

Anthony Edward is really egood. I didn’t expect wolves to win against Denver somehow they did tonight. Wolves look like a matchup nightmare for Denver. Gordon isn’t going to be able overpowered wolves’ pf in that series and town going to make Gordon overcorrecting himself on defense. I don’t know if Miami should stay the course on developing Tyler herro, bam, Jovic, jjj. Wolves didn’t become this good overnight but over the course of the years . Wolves going to be a force for a long times.

The Wolves have benefitted from some high draft picks and decent trades over the last couple of years. Having the foresight to pair KAT with another big that can defend and rebound was a smart plan and decision. Bringing in a smart, consistent PG in Conley, Jr. was huge. Drafting Edwards (who's looking like a young Jordan now) was a wise choice!

If we can find a reliable big that can shoot, rebound and defend to pair with Bam, we'll be headed in the right direction.

I won't correlate Minny and Miami in this example way too different. Both Kat and Gobert are 7 footers one is an actual scorer. Also we don't have the equivalency of Anthony Edwards, or to lesser degree McDaniel's as a top tier wing defender.

The equivalency here is that Bam is the Gobert of this example, and we don't have a Kat version next to him, but in the end Bam is still 6'-9". Were also missing Anthony Edwards, you won't find that guy outside of the top 10 pick in a draft we won't find ourselves in. Also McDaniel's is 3x better than his comp on our team in Haywood Highsmith. Were a bit flawed as a team, were a couple missing pieces to get there I think were 3 key pieces away, 1 superstar, 1 premier all world 3&D player wing, 1 top 20 league big next to Bam.

[Kobewade11]

The equivalency here is that Bam is the Gobert of this example, and we don't have a Kat version next to him, but in the end Bam is still 6'-9". Were also missing Anthony Edwards, you won't find that guy outside of the top 10 pick in a draft we won't find ourselves in. Also McDaniel's is 3x better than his comp on our team in Haywood Highsmith. Were a bit flawed as a team, were a couple missing pieces to get there I think were 3 key pieces away, 1 superstar, 1 premier all world 3&D player wing, 1 top 20 league big next to Bam.

Reading the tea leaves here it sounds like you're advocating for a blow up? How else can you acquire a superstar, a premier 3&d wing, and a top 20 big without moving one or both of your two best players?

[IceColdCubano]

The equivalency here is that Bam is the Gobert of this example, and we don't have a Kat version next to him, but in the end Bam is still 6'-9". Were also missing Anthony Edwards, you won't find that guy outside of the top 10 pick in a draft we won't find ourselves in. Also McDaniel's is 3x better than his comp on our team in Haywood Highsmith. Were a bit flawed as a team, were a couple missing pieces to get there I think were 3 key pieces away, 1 superstar, 1 premier all world 3&D player wing, 1 top 20 league big next to Bam.

Reading the tea leaves here it sounds like you're advocating for a blow up? How else can you acquire a superstar, a premier 3&d wing, and a top 20 big without moving one or both of your two best players?

We need to turn Herro, Duncan, Rozier, Jimmy, and Assetts into the above with proper moves, if you want to go for two out of the three this offseason and see where that gets you in the playoffs and then go for the missing third piece in the following season so be it.

[greg4012]

Anthony Edward is really egood. I didn’t expect wolves to win against Denver somehow they did tonight. Wolves look like a matchup nightmare for Denver. Gordon isn’t going to be able overpowered wolves’ pf in that series and town going to make Gordon overcorrecting himself on defense. I don’t know if Miami should stay the course on developing Tyler herro, bam, Jovic, jjj. Wolves didn’t become this good overnight but over the course of the years . Wolves going to be a force for a long times.

The Wolves have benefitted from some high draft picks and decent trades over the last couple of years. Having the foresight to pair KAT with another big that can defend and rebound was a smart plan and decision. Bringing in a smart, consistent PG in Conley, Jr. was huge. Drafting Edwards (who's looking like a young Jordan now) was a wise choice!

If we can find a reliable big that can shoot, rebound and defend to pair with Bam, we'll be headed in the right direction.

I won't correlate Minny and Miami in this example way too different. Both Kat and Gobert are 7 footers one is an actual scorer. Also we don't have the equivalency of Anthony Edwards, or to lesser degree McDaniel's as a top tier wing defender.

The equivalency here is that Bam is the Gobert of this example, and we don't have a Kat version next to him, but in the end Bam is still 6'-9". Were also missing Anthony Edwards, you won't find that guy outside of the top 10 pick in a draft we won't find ourselves in. Also McDaniel's is 3x better than his comp on our team in Haywood Highsmith. Were a bit flawed as a team, were a couple missing pieces to get there I think were 3 key pieces away, 1 superstar, 1 premier all world 3&D player wing, 1 top 20 league big next to Bam.

Bam is also a better defender for the playoff game than Gobert. Gobert being buttressed with all the right defenders in Minny in the early playoff rounds and being solid so far doesn't change that.

The fascination with Bam's size among Heat fans still blows my mind. He's 6'9 without shoes. Gobert is surrounded by plus defenders and Towns--who is long and mediocre as a defender. Minny has done a great job of getting 2-way players across the board. Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets and even the Knicks have done the same.

[Kobewade11]

The equivalency here is that Bam is the Gobert of this example, and we don't have a Kat version next to him, but in the end Bam is still 6'-9". Were also missing Anthony Edwards, you won't find that guy outside of the top 10 pick in a draft we won't find ourselves in. Also McDaniel's is 3x better than his comp on our team in Haywood Highsmith. Were a bit flawed as a team, were a couple missing pieces to get there I think were 3 key pieces away, 1 superstar, 1 premier all world 3&D player wing, 1 top 20 league big next to Bam.

Reading the tea leaves here it sounds like you're advocating for a blow up? How else can you acquire a superstar, a premier 3&d wing, and a top 20 big without moving one or both of your two best players?

We need to turn Herro, Duncan, Rozier, Jimmy, and Assets into the above with proper moves, if you want to go for two out of the three this offseason and see where that gets you in the playoffs and then go for the missing third piece in the following season so be it.

That's a very tall task. All I know is looking at the remaining teams in the playoffs, these guys are big, they are either established as stars or they are part of the next-gen ascending stars. The old guard and the 'borderline' guys are all at home. We'll need to take some big swings if at all possible this offseason but the criteria needs to go beyond "bam's friend and likes Wade", gotta be a real established superstar or someone that is in that ascending phase.

[IceColdCubano]

The Wolves have benefitted from some high draft picks and decent trades over the last couple of years. Having the foresight to pair KAT with another big that can defend and rebound was a smart plan and decision. Bringing in a smart, consistent PG in Conley, Jr. was huge. Drafting Edwards (who's looking like a young Jordan now) was a wise choice!

If we can find a reliable big that can shoot, rebound and defend to pair with Bam, we'll be headed in the right direction.

I won't correlate Minny and Miami in this example way too different. Both Kat and Gobert are 7 footers one is an actual scorer. Also we don't have the equivalency of Anthony Edwards, or to lesser degree McDaniel's as a top tier wing defender.

The equivalency here is that Bam is the Gobert of this example, and we don't have a Kat version next to him, but in the end Bam is still 6'-9". Were also missing Anthony Edwards, you won't find that guy outside of the top 10 pick in a draft we won't find ourselves in. Also McDaniel's is 3x better than his comp on our team in Haywood Highsmith. Were a bit flawed as a team, were a couple missing pieces to get there I think were 3 key pieces away, 1 superstar, 1 premier all world 3&D player wing, 1 top 20 league big next to Bam.

Bam is also a better defender for the playoff game than Gobert. Gobert being buttressed with all the right defenders in Minny in the early playoff rounds and being solid so far doesn't change that.

The fascination with Bam's size among Heat fans still blows my mind. He's 6'9 without shoes. Gobert is surrounded by plus defenders and Towns--who is long and mediocre as a defender. Minny has done a great job of getting 2-way players across the board. Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets and even the Knicks have done the same.

I didn't say Bam was a worse defender, had to reread my comment to make sure. Its about a build type, Bam is absolutely tier 1 and best at switching type on defense at all levels in the game of basketball however he does these things because of his speed which is a benefit of being on the smaller side, there are SF playing the game the same size as Bam. Gobert plays defense different that fits that team, or fits playing against bigger teams whom cannot control the paint. Bam makes things difficult for other center or bigger players because he is a very smart defender he however does not control the paint the way Gobert does or Wemby does, where players literally rather shoot from the perimeter rather than go inside which then allows Minies perimeter defenders do their thing and funnel the offensive player to a deadball or block shot.

Right now championships will run through Nuggets Jokic as long as that team is healthy. Our team will if healthy and if Jimmy is playing like a top 5 player good enough to beat 25 out of 30 teams in the NBA that we can match up with. The problem right now is that Jimmy is declining and will not be able to turn that switch as often as before plus us lacking size along with scoring we will not beat those Archetype teams.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I am fine with a core of Bam,Jovic, and JJJ. See what the other guys can net us to add onto that.

I am pretty much over the idea that Herro can be the engine that carries us to the post season so Jimmy can take over.

That engine is Bam, has been every year

[greg4012]

I won't correlate Minny and Miami in this example way too different. Both Kat and Gobert are 7 footers one is an actual scorer. Also we don't have the equivalency of Anthony Edwards, or to lesser degree McDaniel's as a top tier wing defender.

The equivalency here is that Bam is the Gobert of this example, and we don't have a Kat version next to him, but in the end Bam is still 6'-9". Were also missing Anthony Edwards, you won't find that guy outside of the top 10 pick in a draft we won't find ourselves in. Also McDaniel's is 3x better than his comp on our team in Haywood Highsmith. Were a bit flawed as a team, were a couple missing pieces to get there I think were 3 key pieces away, 1 superstar, 1 premier all world 3&D player wing, 1 top 20 league big next to Bam.

Bam is also a better defender for the playoff game than Gobert. Gobert being buttressed with all the right defenders in Minny in the early playoff rounds and being solid so far doesn't change that.

The fascination with Bam's size among Heat fans still blows my mind. He's 6'9 without shoes. Gobert is surrounded by plus defenders and Towns--who is long and mediocre as a defender. Minny has done a great job of getting 2-way players across the board. Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets and even the Knicks have done the same.

I didn't say Bam was a worse defender, had to reread my comment to make sure. Its about a build type, Bam is absolutely tier 1 and best at switching type on defense at all levels in the game of basketball however he does these things because of his speed which is a benefit of being on the smaller side, there are SF playing the game the same size as Bam. Gobert plays defense different that fits that team, or fits playing against bigger teams whom cannot control the paint. Bam makes things difficult for other center or bigger players because he is a very smart defender he however does not control the paint the way Gobert does or Wemby does, where players literally rather shoot from the perimeter rather than go inside which then allows Minies perimeter defenders do their thing and funnel the offensive player to a deadball or block shot.

Right now championships will run through Nuggets Jokic as long as that team is healthy. Our team will if healthy and if Jimmy is playing like a top 5 player good enough to beat 25 out of 30 teams in the NBA that we can match up with. The problem right now is that Jimmy is declining and will not be able to turn that switch as often as before plus us lacking size along with scoring we will not beat those Archetype teams.

Just providing clarity to some underlying points that may be debatable. Part of the deficiency in the Mitchell-Gobert build type was that despite the fact that they could generate a top 10 regular season defense, Gobert's defensive impact would drop significantly in postseason play. Less concern with Bam on that front.

Nonetheless, the more 2-way players that can accompany Mitchell plus defensive superstar big, the better the team will be.

Lumbering paint protecting centers don't control the paint as well in the playoff game EVER during modern NBA playoff bball. That's the whole rub and the underlying point. They get pulled out more as the game becomes even more of a space game and uncoordinated bigs are in more positions to give up advantage.

Just look at Gobert's precipitous drop in DRTG from regular season to playoffs relative to his own teammates over the course of his career. It's clearly consistent.

Bam also actually was a better paint deterrent than Gobert this season:

Read on Twitter

Contesting and blocking shots at the rim gets more attention. Not letting teams get into the paint is more impactful.

[IceColdCubano]

Bam is also a better defender for the playoff game than Gobert. Gobert being buttressed with all the right defenders in Minny in the early playoff rounds and being solid so far doesn't change that.

The fascination with Bam's size among Heat fans still blows my mind. He's 6'9 without shoes. Gobert is surrounded by plus defenders and Towns--who is long and mediocre as a defender. Minny has done a great job of getting 2-way players across the board. Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets and even the Knicks have done the same.

I didn't say Bam was a worse defender, had to reread my comment to make sure. Its about a build type, Bam is absolutely tier 1 and best at switching type on defense at all levels in the game of basketball however he does these things because of his speed which is a benefit of being on the smaller side, there are SF playing the game the same size as Bam. Gobert plays defense different that fits that team, or fits playing against bigger teams whom cannot control the paint. Bam makes things difficult for other center or bigger players because he is a very smart defender he however does not control the paint the way Gobert does or Wemby does, where players literally rather shoot from the perimeter rather than go inside which then allows Minies perimeter defenders do their thing and funnel the offensive player to a deadball or block shot.

Right now championships will run through Nuggets Jokic as long as that team is healthy. Our team will if healthy and if Jimmy is playing like a top 5 player good enough to beat 25 out of 30 teams in the NBA that we can match up with. The problem right now is that Jimmy is declining and will not be able to turn that switch as often as before plus us lacking size along with scoring we will not beat those Archetype teams.

Just providing clarity to some underlying points that may be off. Part of the deficiency in the Mitchell-Gobert build type was that despite the fact that they could generate a top 10 regular season defense, Gobert's defensive impact would drop significantly in postseason play. Less concern with Bam on that front.

Nonetheless, the more 2-way players that can accompany Mitchell plus defensive superstar big, the better the team will be.

Lumbering paint protecting centers don't control the paint as well in the playoff game EVER during modern NBA playoff bball. That's the whole rub and the underlying point. They get pulled out more as the game becomes even more of a space game and uncoordinated bigs are in more positions to give up advantage.

Just look at Gobert's precipitous drop in DRTG from regular season to playoffs relative to his own teammates over the course of his career. It's clearly consistent.

Bam also actually was a better paint deterrent than Gobert this season:

Read on Twitter

Contesting and blocking shots at the rim gets more attention. Not letting teams get into the paint is more impactful.

I've already looked at this before, while this may have been true in the past its not anymore at least this year Gobert has been quiet successful at controlling the paint, and not pulled like you state above in meaningful minutes to close games. We need to stop running with the old adage there that gets regurgitated over and over. Players improve and defensive adjustments can be made to facilitate their weaknesses, we do it all the time here to help our weaker defenders. I would garner that people need to at some point stop looking at career values and look at what the player is today and represents as of this season.

Theres also far more to size, than just paint defense, were talking rebounding and allowing your other players to have a wider field of control since you can cover that much more space. One thing can't be looked at linearly, we must look at all the positives size provides, outside of singularly stats.

[Lennyzinho]

Question for this room. What are yout expectations for Jovic and Jaime Jr next season?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I try not to think too much about Cleveland Cavalier players and their development.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I didn't say Bam was a worse defender, had to reread my comment to make sure. Its about a build type, Bam is absolutely tier 1 and best at switching type on defense at all levels in the game of basketball however he does these things because of his speed which is a benefit of being on the smaller side, there are SF playing the game the same size as Bam. Gobert plays defense different that fits that team, or fits playing against bigger teams whom cannot control the paint. Bam makes things difficult for other center or bigger players because he is a very smart defender he however does not control the paint the way Gobert does or Wemby does, where players literally rather shoot from the perimeter rather than go inside which then allows Minies perimeter defenders do their thing and funnel the offensive player to a deadball or block shot.

Right now championships will run through Nuggets Jokic as long as that team is healthy. Our team will if healthy and if Jimmy is playing like a top 5 player good enough to beat 25 out of 30 teams in the NBA that we can match up with. The problem right now is that Jimmy is declining and will not be able to turn that switch as often as before plus us lacking size along with scoring we will not beat those Archetype teams.

Just providing clarity to some underlying points that may be off. Part of the deficiency in the Mitchell-Gobert build type was that despite the fact that they could generate a top 10 regular season defense, Gobert's defensive impact would drop significantly in postseason play. Less concern with Bam on that front.

Nonetheless, the more 2-way players that can accompany Mitchell plus defensive superstar big, the better the team will be.

Lumbering paint protecting centers don't control the paint as well in the playoff game EVER during modern NBA playoff bball. That's the whole rub and the underlying point. They get pulled out more as the game becomes even more of a space game and uncoordinated bigs are in more positions to give up advantage.

Just look at Gobert's precipitous drop in DRTG from regular season to playoffs relative to his own teammates over the course of his career. It's clearly consistent.

Bam also actually was a better paint deterrent than Gobert this season:

Read on Twitter

Contesting and blocking shots at the rim gets more attention. Not letting teams get into the paint is more impactful.

I've already looked at this before, while this may have been true in the past its not anymore at least this year Gobert has been quiet successful at controlling the paint, and not pulled like you state above in meaningful minutes to close games. We need to stop running with the old adage there that gets regurgitated over and over. Players improve and defensive adjustments can be made to facilitate their weaknesses, we do it all the time here to help our weaker defenders. I would garner that people need to at some point stop looking at career values and look at what the player is today and represents as of this season.

Theres also far more to size, than just paint defense, were talking rebounding and allowing your other players to have a wider field of control since you can cover that much more space. One thing can't be looked at linearly, we must look at all the positives size provides, outside of singularly stats.

Those stats are from this season