Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[DayofMourning]

Unless we swap 35 year old Butler for a prime superstar, we are playin. Weve been playin.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

People said we couldn’t beat the Bucks, then the Knicks, then the Celtics as well. They finally got it right with Denver. Are the Thunder and Wolves that much better than the Celtics if at all? I actually think the wolves win the championship but we’ll see but I’ll take our chances with Mitchell, playoff Jimmy, Bam, Spo, and proven vets any day. Our defense (thanks Bam) will always give us a chance as long as our stars are providing efficient scoring the “the others” can knock down open looks.

[Bishop45]

Takes years to build what OKC and Minny have, sometimes you get there by running it back and picking up pieces one step at a time. I would've blew up Minny if I had the power to, two years ago.

Our situation isn't that dire if you look around the league. We probably have a similar average age to a team like Minny. One or two additions could change our entire outlook. I trust the FO's vision enough to give them some grace with their following decisions

I hope by one or two additions, you mean a true superstar and 3 centers.

Could be, time will tell

[DayofMourning]

People said we couldn’t beat the Bucks, then the Knicks, then the Celtics as well. They finally got it right with Denver. Are the Thunder and Wolves that much better than the Celtics if at all? I actually think the wolves win the championship but we’ll see but I’ll take our chances with Mitchell, playoff Jimmy, Bam, Spo, and proven vets any day. Our defense (thanks Bam) will always give us a chance as long as our stars are providing efficient scoring the “the others” can knock down open looks.

Father time always wins though. Butler plays 50 games a year and is healthy every other playoffs. He has lost a lot of his athleticism from these eyes. Injured 3 out of 5 playoffs and now 35. My expectations about his contributions are fairly low. Paying him $50 million per year is ludicrous. Pat just called him out big time in his presser. The obvious is screaming at us.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

People said we couldn’t beat the Bucks, then the Knicks, then the Celtics as well. They finally got it right with Denver. Are the Thunder and Wolves that much better than the Celtics if at all? I actually think the wolves win the championship but we’ll see but I’ll take our chances with Mitchell, playoff Jimmy, Bam, Spo, and proven vets any day. Our defense (thanks Bam) will always give us a chance as long as our stars are providing efficient scoring the “the others” can knock down open looks.

Father time always wins though. Butler plays 50 games a year and is healthy every other playoffs. He has lost a lot of his athleticism from these eyes. Injured 3 out of 5 playoffs and now 35. My expectations about his contributions are fairly low. Paying him $50 million per year is ludicrous. Pat just called him out big time in his presser. The obvious is screaming at us.

I think to counter Father Time we just need an offensive star to take that burden while Jimmy can still give you a super efficient 22-26 on elite efficiency in the playoffs and take over from time to time when needed.

If Jimmy is here next season I think he’ll be more engaged, he wants that extension

[IceColdCubano]

People said we couldn’t beat the Bucks, then the Knicks, then the Celtics as well. They finally got it right with Denver. Are the Thunder and Wolves that much better than the Celtics if at all? I actually think the wolves win the championship but we’ll see but I’ll take our chances with Mitchell, playoff Jimmy, Bam, Spo, and proven vets any day. Our defense (thanks Bam) will always give us a chance as long as our stars are providing efficient scoring the “the others” can knock down open looks.

Boston this year got some really good upgrades, definitely widened the gap between us even further, Last year they still had better talent. We just match up really well with them at least we did, but the only times weve every been able to beat them in a series has required 2 mayor things, Jimmy being elite and a combination of ridiculous shooting. If you can't look back at our playoff runs, with some uncommon hot shooting outside of even the playoff extremes that perhaps we just got hot at the right times. It was when we didn't that we could keep up against the more talented teams. This Year's Boston teams talent increase so much that even with their mistakes and lulls they go through their still putting so many threes that they would still roll you over even playing badly.

The West teams ie Nuggets are still better than Boston even this version of Boston, (Caveat here is a healthy Nuggets team, this current version with a hobbled Jamal Murray won't beat Boston) I couldn't see Boston beating either Nuggets or T-Wolves with those teams at full health/strength. I think OKC is probably the one team they could beat based on them being so young, and having very little playoff experience.

We have this cindirella story in our heads with some fluky like runs, that required key players on other teams to be either unavailable or hobbled. Then add, the type of shooting splits that are all time best coming from players whom never possessed that status outside of Duncan, when you have the Vincent's, Lowry's, Struss, Highsmith's, Caleb's shooting Golden State Warrior levels good that tells you that these are things we cannot easily replicate as often as we think. Let's not forget it also required Caleb turning into a version of Kobe bryant in spurts during the Eastern conference finals last year where he should have been the MVP to be honest, had that there not happened, Boston would have been the first team to have comeback from 3-0 deficit.

I don't believe were as a team as bad as 8 seed with our current talent. I think being an injury prone team, that has players whom often injured, and we play a very physical style of defense to be successful makes us look worse than what we really are. Also Jimmy and Bam being a bad fit in regards to have so much overlap, when our shooters are not creating space, you might as well call that game. However Miami has been rather lucky to date to fall in the brackets that they have falling into, and hey playoffs sometimes require a bit of luck to move forward.

Counting on a healthy jimmy or jimmy caring even when he plays cause honestly speaking if Jimmy was allowed he probably play at most 35-40 games for him to go 100% like Bam does in those. Even when were getting 60 games out of him he is like in 3rd gear for half of them because he paces himself far too often.

My opinion is this, even though we have been somewhat successful, more so than other Eastern contenders in the last 5 years, it has been a lot of coaching, and grit, and fluky shooting, and having the right matchups to get there. Weve squeezed the best we can out of the Jimmy build, outside of having somebody other than Herro, replaced by someone. However it's coming to the realization, that nobody has wanted Herro and Miami has oversold him to the fanbase which is why were here now. Miami is the only team that you look at and the reason why we get doubted is because we don't have the talent yet still find ways to go over expectations, but when we can't it looks really bad.

I think it's time for this fanbase to accept the Jimmy build is over, and at this point were riding with him until the team figures it out or we get lucky and something falls into our laps. Don't get me wrong, Jimmy, Bam, Mitchell trio is good enough in the current Eastern Conference to get you to the ECF if your not fcking around the playing team. I don't believe you beat the Current Boston team, you could take them to 6,7 and roll the dice, perhaps you catch em slipping. Now if we make it that far were not beating whomever comes out of the West with that trio. Again this is all looking at the teams like Philly, Knicks, Boston, Milwaukee staying still and not improving, if any of those teams make major changes this upcoming season, this gets potentially harder.

[Flash4thewin]

Takes years to build what OKC and Minny have, sometimes you get there by running it back and picking up pieces one step at a time. I would've blew up Minny if I had the power to, two years ago.

Our situation isn't that dire if you look around the league. We probably have a similar average age to a team like Minny. One or two additions could change our entire outlook. I trust the FO's vision enough to give them some grace with their following decisions

Just asking but what in this Jimmy tenure has given you confidence to trust the FO? We have repeatedly let go of starters, when we have cap space we epically blow it on players who dont deserve it, we refuse to trade players thinking they will step up etc. Using draft capital to get rid of our signed players? The only thing we have done right is the draft. Objectively any other GM gets fired for signing Duncan and Lowry to those contracts. Thats not even touching the Herro signing which is not looking good. Heck if we waiting until that offseason to sign him no way we paid 30 mil based on the season he had. So im asking where is this trust coming from?

[Hoops3355]

Jovic is going to be a quality player. You can see it already. He’s building really nicely and in some ways, probably ahead of expectations this year.

The leap he made defensively was big. He wasn’t getting played off the floor, and when he got switched onto a guard, he held his own for the most part. Offensively, his 3 ball has come a long way. Fodor working magic on the form and speed of the release. He’s a big kid that’s probably still growing, and he should be a big part of our build back up the ladder.

You said that but spo doesn’t even trust him. Spo trust jjj more than jovic even jjj isn’t starting. It looks like if it’s entirely up to spo, I think he would barely even played him. I think it comes from the man from upstairs to play him. That’s my observation

You realize that this dude has had all sorts of health issues this season coupled with being 20 and physically just not being there from a conditioning perspective. The amount of projection on here specifically with Jovic and Spo is actually hilarious.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

People said we couldn’t beat the Bucks, then the Knicks, then the Celtics as well. They finally got it right with Denver. Are the Thunder and Wolves that much better than the Celtics if at all? I actually think the wolves win the championship but we’ll see but I’ll take our chances with Mitchell, playoff Jimmy, Bam, Spo, and proven vets any day. Our defense (thanks Bam) will always give us a chance as long as our stars are providing efficient scoring the “the others” can knock down open looks.

Boston this year got some really good upgrades, definitely widened the gap between us even further, Last year they still had better talent. We just match up really well with them at least we did, but the only times weve every been able to beat them in a series has required 2 mayor things, Jimmy being elite and a combination of ridiculous shooting. If you can't look back at our playoff runs, with some uncommon hot shooting outside of even the playoff extremes that perhaps we just got hot at the right times. It was when we didn't that we could keep up against the more talented teams. This Year's Boston teams talent increase so much that even with their mistakes and lulls they go through their still putting so many threes that they would still roll you over even playing badly.

The West teams ie Nuggets are still better than Boston even this version of Boston, (Caveat here is a healthy Nuggets team, this current version with a hobbled Jamal Murray won't beat Boston) I couldn't see Boston beating either Nuggets or T-Wolves with those teams at full health/strength. I think OKC is probably the one team they could beat based on them being so young, and having very little playoff experience.

We have this cindirella story in our heads with some fluky like runs, that required key players on other teams to be either unavailable or hobbled. Then add, the type of shooting splits that are all time best coming from players whom never possessed that status outside of Duncan, when you have the Vincent's, Lowry's, Struss, Highsmith's, Caleb's shooting Golden State Warrior levels good that tells you that these are things we cannot easily replicate as often as we think. Let's not forget it also required Caleb turning into a version of Kobe bryant in spurts during the Eastern conference finals last year where he should have been the MVP to be honest, had that there not happened, Boston would have been the first team to have comeback from 3-0 deficit.

I don't believe were as a team as bad as 8 seed with our current talent. I think being an injury prone team, that has players whom often injured, and we play a very physical style of defense to be successful makes us look worse than what we really are. Also Jimmy and Bam being a bad fit in regards to have so much overlap, when our shooters are not creating space, you might as well call that game. However Miami has been rather lucky to date to fall in the brackets that they have falling into, and hey playoffs sometimes require a bit of luck to move forward.

Counting on a healthy jimmy or jimmy caring even when he plays cause honestly speaking if Jimmy was allowed he probably play at most 35-40 games for him to go 100% like Bam does in those. Even when were getting 60 games out of him he is like in 3rd gear for half of them because he paces himself far too often.

My opinion is this, even though we have been somewhat successful, more so than other Eastern contenders in the last 5 years, it has been a lot of coaching, and grit, and fluky shooting, and having the right matchups to get there. Weve squeezed the best we can out of the Jimmy build, outside of having somebody other than Herro, replaced by someone. However it's coming to the realization, that nobody has wanted Herro and Miami has oversold him to the fanbase which is why were here now. Miami is the only team that you look at and the reason why we get doubted is because we don't have the talent yet still find ways to go over expectations, but when we can't it looks really bad.

I think it's time for this fanbase to accept the Jimmy build is over, and at this point were riding with him until the team figures it out or we get lucky and something falls into our laps. Don't get me wrong, Jimmy, Bam, Mitchell trio is good enough in the current Eastern Conference to get you to the ECF if your not fcking around the playing team. I don't believe you beat the Current Boston team, you could take them to 6,7 and roll the dice, perhaps you catch em slipping. Now if we make it that far were not beating whomever comes out of the West with that trio. Again this is all looking at the teams like Philly, Knicks, Boston, Milwaukee staying still and not improving, if any of those teams make major changes this upcoming season, this gets potentially harder.

Agree to disagree but I appreciate your effort!!

[IceColdCubano]

Takes years to build what OKC and Minny have, sometimes you get there by running it back and picking up pieces one step at a time. I would've blew up Minny if I had the power to, two years ago.

Our situation isn't that dire if you look around the league. We probably have a similar average age to a team like Minny. One or two additions could change our entire outlook. I trust the FO's vision enough to give them some grace with their following decisions

Just asking but what in this Jimmy tenure has given you confidence to trust the FO? We have repeatedly let go of starters, when we have cap space we epically blow it on players who dont deserve it, we refuse to trade players thinking they will step up etc. Using draft capital to get rid of our signed players? The only thing we have done right is the draft. Objectively any other GM gets fired for signing Duncan and Lowry to those contracts. So im asking where is this trust coming from?

Coaching staff takes some of this blame, I keep hearing about the front office, but a lot of the contracts signed to date came with the blessing from this coach. Duncan, Lowry, Vincent, Caleb, Struss, Highsmith are all absolutely Spo's redeemers, whom he has coached up. The other thing we need to understand is if the replacement doesn't exist FO don't let them leave especially if they have cap space. There are other teams out there also bidding on them, and the Agents are putting pressure to walk away. If they don't feel like something out there exist at the moment to replace that said player, bird in hand comes to mind. Then the blessing from the coaching staff about the importance on continuity and hard work that player put in. With Kyle Lowry, lets blame the right guy, Jimmy Butler, many people have said around the league he pushed for Kyle here, and Kyle strong armed Miami for the 3rd year, they didn't want to give him, they caved for Jimmy. The hope from the front office is you can then use those salaries to move them later if needed or if a valued is perceived, that doesn't always pan out, all FO make those mistakes. With Miami, being a team that used to sell picks like they were candy, and struggled to accumulate picks after the Big 3, and Dragic, and Jimmy trades, and now Rozier, those bad contracts feel even heavier cause now you have very little to move, Miami incessant idea of never not making the playoffs, also by virtue devalue the picks we do have.

[Kobewade11]

Just asking but what in this Jimmy tenure has given you confidence to trust the FO? We have repeatedly let go of starters, when we have cap space we epically blow it on players who dont deserve it, we refuse to trade players thinking they will step up etc. Using draft capital to get rid of our signed players? The only thing we have done right is the draft. Objectively any other GM gets fired for signing Duncan and Lowry to those contracts. So im asking where is this trust coming from?

I did an exercise in looking at the roster construction of champions over the last decade. It showed me 2 things, (1) the necessity of having 5-6 great role players behind a superstar, and (2) just how much Heat fans undersell that 2020 team, and to a lesser degree the 21-22 team. In that first year Jimmy was flanked by Dragic, Bam, Olynyk, Herro, Robinson, and some very versatile defenders in Hill, Iguodala, and Crowder (thanks to midseason trade acquisition). That was a damn good team that if not for injuries was objectively good enough to win the championship.

[Bishop45]

Takes years to build what OKC and Minny have, sometimes you get there by running it back and picking up pieces one step at a time. I would've blew up Minny if I had the power to, two years ago.

Our situation isn't that dire if you look around the league. We probably have a similar average age to a team like Minny. One or two additions could change our entire outlook. I trust the FO's vision enough to give them some grace with their following decisions

Just asking but what in this Jimmy tenure has given you confidence to trust the FO?

Finals runs and great draft picks

[IceColdCubano]

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[AirP.]

Takes years to build what OKC and Minny have, sometimes you get there by running it back and picking up pieces one step at a time. I would've blew up Minny if I had the power to, two years ago.

Our situation isn't that dire if you look around the league. We probably have a similar average age to a team like Minny. One or two additions could change our entire outlook. I trust the FO's vision enough to give them some grace with their following decisions

Just asking but what in this Jimmy tenure has given you confidence to trust the FO? We have repeatedly let go of starters, when we have cap space we epically blow it on players who dont deserve it, we refuse to trade players thinking they will step up etc. Using draft capital to get rid of our signed players? The only thing we have done right is the draft. Objectively any other GM gets fired for signing Duncan and Lowry to those contracts. Thats not even touching the Herro signing which is not looking good. Heck if we waiting until that offseason to sign him no way we paid 30 mil based on the season he had. So im asking where is this trust coming from?

You are correct but Miami operates differently which helps them greatly. Continuity is huge in the FO, yes Miami has made mistakes and missed on things in the Jimmy era but instead of those FO people being fired and possibly going a completely different direction with new people making the decisions, this FO can just say we screwed up so now let's fix this.

The only huge issue I have seen with Miami is overpaying average or lesser than average talent because they did well in Miami. The #1 player to point at is Duncan Robinson, he was a volume 3pt shooter that could have been replaced with a much cheaper volume 3pt shooter especially after seeing his numbers come down before he signed that extension. The draft is hit or miss, don't let a few hits fool you that your organization will always hit which is why I point at the Precious/Maxey huge miss and sometimes point at GS with those 3 lottery picks (one #2 overall) and only came out of that with possibly 1 good starter (not great) and a rotation player.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Just checked the FA listing and there are some really solid veteran guys out there this summer. Get the 3rd star and everything else is going to fall into place.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[AirP.]

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Either tank or continue going forward and this organization can't really tank with Bam on the roster unless he misses a lot of games.

Let me say this clearly. In the next 3 years, much like this year, I expecte that Butler's impact on his team will be greater than Herro and Robinson combined impact will be with them making somewhere close to the same money. I don't think the issue is Butler's "value", it's the other value on the roster. Robinson didn't just fall out of the starting rotation; he completely fell out of the rotation at one point in his 5 year 90-million-dollar contract.

Quit overpaying for average at best players will fix a lot of these problems. Want to not pay Butler, find a new higher-level player like Miami's been trying to do since Butler arrived in Miami. I don't quite understand why it'll be easier to obtain this player as a bad team instead of a good team, you got Butler on a max without the cap space so having cap space isn't exactly a reason you haven't gotten that player for basically half a decade and in 10 years you've only gotten Butler.

Unless Miami has an MVP candidate on their roster, Miami should always be looking to acquire a new top option in Miami, this includes Butler being on roster in the past and future. Even with Butler they have had plans to go after Giannis, Lillard, and KD and they should continue to do that, they just haven't been all that successful in getting those players in the last decade.

[MiamiSun]

I moved to Miami D'Wades rookie year from Phoenix. I was a die hard Suns fan from the day Barkley arrived in the desert and rode with them until Nash left.

The one thing I can tell you is that the Nash ,Amare ,Marion build feels very similar to this. After many years of heartbreak (and crooked refs), the team got stale. They coasted until they got to the playoffs and then didn't have the chemistry to make it through. They tried to replace the 3rd man (Marion) with Shaq but that didn't work out either. In hindsight, the team just needed an influx of youth to inspire the fan base, and inspire the vets through the long regular season. We have that in Jovic and JJJ. Tyler also ignites the fans and has the team rooting for him to succeed. So my point is that this is not as dire as it feels.

Do we need changes, yes. But I think this is the year of truth. Jimmy playing for the extension, Tyler on a mission to prove everyone wrong, JJJ and Jovic developing another year and hopefully a healthy Rozier. Bam will also improve as he has every year, Duncan hopefully takes another step up and Caleb probably will accept his player option.

I don't want to run things back, but the foundation to be better than last year is already in place.

This is not the year to blow it up. If we can trade Tyler for another player that raises the ceiling then you do it, but not just change for the sake of change.

I think the biggest mission this off season is for the organization to do a deep dive into availability.

[twix2500]

Takes years to build what OKC and Minny have, sometimes you get there by running it back and picking up pieces one step at a time. I would've blew up Minny if I had the power to, two years ago.

Our situation isn't that dire if you look around the league. We probably have a similar average age to a team like Minny. One or two additions could change our entire outlook. I trust the FO's vision enough to give them some grace with their following decisions

I hope by one or two additions, you mean a true superstar and 3 centers.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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