Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[IceColdCubano]

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If Lebron really wanted to tilt the scales here, He opts out, becomes full on Villain, resigns with Miami for Vet Min salary. Miami then sees the opportunity and goes all in either for Durant or Mitchell or George.

Miami starts next years with one of the other Combos:
1. Rozier, Mitchell, Jimmy, Lebron, Bam
2. Rozier, Jimmy, Lebron, Durant, Bam
3. Rozier, Jimmy, George, Lebron, Bam

[Lennyzinho]

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Lebron going back, he's just pressing the lakers like he always does cuz he's a diva and a bad teammate.

Durant and Booker gonna fix their depth with vets and try again. Also realize that MIN wrecking Denver like this also makes the suns feel better about themselves. If you lose to the champ you can always be in denial. "OH damn we lost to the champs and played them tough. Let's make some tweaks and try again". Ishbia already said he's not doing anything. They don't own their picks and Beal is a awful contract with a no trade clause. Maybe 2025-2026.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I don't understand why people want or even bring up Trae Young. You think herro who's 6'5" 200lbs is bad on defense and gets bullied and is streaky and overpaid?
Wait until you get a 6ft 165lb Trae Young making the max. Imagine that guy playing vs OKC or MIN or BOS... what a disaster. I just don't get it. I want no part of small offense only defensive liability guards making max and thinking they'd somehow get us over the hump.

Rozier makes 25M and he's a good 6th man and regular season dude and can score in bunches and tries much harder on defense than trae does. That's about as much exposure to that as a roster can handle.

Forget trae. The nba is moving on from dudes like that. Look how exposed Garland has been this year. Kyrie gave Harden problems all series. Look how exposed Herro was vs Boston. SGA is small but the dude leads the league in steals. Jrue constant all defense team type guy. Dumping herro and assets to get trae is ridiculous to me.

Sorry for rant but I'm very anti Trae xoxo

Trae vs the Thunder: 25-4-10

Celtics: 26-3-8

Wolves: 31-5-10

We should be hype for an Trae Young acquisition, he’s had some postseason success as well. Hes a top offensive talent in the league

[Beenie]

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If Lebron really wanted to tilt the scales here, He opts out, becomes full on Villain, resigns with Miami for Vet Min salary. Miami then sees the opportunity and goes all in either for Durant or Mitchell or George.

Miami starts next years with one of the other Combos:
1. Rozier, Mitchell, Jimmy, Lebron, Bam
2. Rozier, Jimmy, Lebron, Durant, Bam
3. Rozier, Jimmy, George, Lebron, Bam

Teams around the league would be at an uproar and would work tirelessly on sabotaging this build from ever happening.

Would have to first come to a secret agreement with lebron and postpone his signing before executing the other trade.

[IceColdCubano]

Read on Twitter

If Lebron really wanted to tilt the scales here, He opts out, becomes full on Villain, resigns with Miami for Vet Min salary. Miami then sees the opportunity and goes all in either for Durant or Mitchell or George.

Miami starts next years with one of the other Combos:
1. Rozier, Mitchell, Jimmy, Lebron, Bam
2. Rozier, Jimmy, Lebron, Durant, Bam
3. Rozier, Jimmy, George, Lebron, Bam

Teams around the league would be at an uproar and would work tirelessly on sabotaging this build from ever happening.

Would have to first come to a secret agreement with lebron and postpone his signing before executing the other trade.

Exactly Lebron would get word to the team, Miami makes the moves in question, also passes info to said player so they can push this to happen on their side as well. Then one thing drops, Lebron says you know what Ive made my money it's time to go back to a place I felt great and finish it all there, signs a vet minimum, BOOM, we instantly become the Heatles again... Hate pours from all sides.

[Beenie]

If Lebron really wanted to tilt the scales here, He opts out, becomes full on Villain, resigns with Miami for Vet Min salary. Miami then sees the opportunity and goes all in either for Durant or Mitchell or George.

Miami starts next years with one of the other Combos:
1. Rozier, Mitchell, Jimmy, Lebron, Bam
2. Rozier, Jimmy, Lebron, Durant, Bam
3. Rozier, Jimmy, George, Lebron, Bam

Teams around the league would be at an uproar and would work tirelessly on sabotaging this build from ever happening.

Would have to first come to a secret agreement with lebron and postpone his signing before executing the other trade.

Exactly Lebron would get word to the team, Miami makes the moves in question, also passes info to said player so they can push this to happen on their side as well. Then one thing drops, Lebron says you know what Ive made my money it's time to go back to a place I felt great and finish it all there, signs a vet minimum, BOOM, we instantly become the Heatles again... Hate pours from all sides.

I’ll indulge lol

They’d need spacing and I suspect would want to keep Duncan

Plus lebron would be their defaco PG so moving Rozier instead makes more sense

Lebron
Duncan
Jimmy
Durant
Bam

[twix2500]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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[insfo]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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Don’t really care about Tyler’s numbers at this point, but the Bam trend does look interesting. Any chance you have this for previous years?

[Tony15]

I'd like to know shots per game in comparison, particularly with regards to Bam.

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[IceColdCubano]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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Don’t really care about Tyler’s numbers at this point, but the Bam trend does look interesting. Any chance you have this for previous years?

2 things on Bam correlation - One thing could be With the effort required on Bam's side on defense, his production should drop as the season goes based on the grueling toll on the defensive side. He is probably tapering down to be a bit getting ready for a strong playoff push, expecting him to go full effort from day one to the last game of the season is asking a lot. The second thing you could also hypotheses here is usually this is when Jimmy starts to ramp up his usage and aggressiveness and the teams goes away from Bam to score and Bam gets more freedom to be more aggressive on the defensive side. The second thing is probably the biggest correlating factor, because if you look at last year specifically Our defense actually got better as the season when on, meaning Bam is playing harder on that side of the ball thus dropping his offensive efficiency a bit.

With Herro, I think he comes in every off season with extra weight, muscle from offseason work, and his body just can't keep it on, his driving to the basket, and getting to the line a bit more, then as he begins to wear down, getting injuries since he is fragile, and losing everything he gained in the offseason the chart starts to depict this. You can also correlate it similar to Bam that Jimmy also rains in a bit more of the usage towards the end taking a bit from everyone. Also I would expect Herro's to look like a heart monitor too since he is the most inconsistent on this team, the eye test says the same.

[ZoStrong]

We really need a defensive backup C to take some burden off of Bam during the regular season. Someone like Birdman would be fantastic

[twix2500]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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Don’t really care about Tyler’s numbers at this point, but the Bam trend does look interesting. Any chance you have this for previous years?

Cold blooded

I'd like to know shots per game in comparison, particularly with regards to Bam.

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ok

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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Make sure you post the decrease in shot attempts and usage as well if you’re going to post PPG without context.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Nevermind, I see it now. Yea I mean that sums it up, he’s always the once sacrificing for the team.

[AirP.]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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Not much you can take from this info because for Herro he played...
Oct 4 games
Nov 4 games
Dec 6 games
Jan 15 games <- this is a good amount, but Rozier changed the shot distribution staring the 24th.
Feb 7 games
Mar 7 games

With such low games one or two outliers in a month dramatically skews the data. January, the month he played the most games in he averaged 18.4 pts while having a TS% of .519 which is really bad. You could combine the October and November games to get a better view of what he was doing at the beginning of the season since those 8 games were all in a row.

Bam's usage dropped off in January and never picked up, it was also his lowest TS% month at .541.

What happened in January, well, Miami added Rozier, and his first game was the 24th.
Herro
18 FGA January pre Rozier
14.8 FGA January post Rozier

Bam
15.8 FGA January pre Rozier
12 FGA January post Rozier

The dynamics of the team changed and so the shot distributions, I won't take too much from this year's declines because Rozier was a sizable offensive change.

[greg4012]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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Playoffs:

Herro: 16.8 ppg
Bam: 22.6 ppg

[greg4012]

I don't understand why people want or even bring up Trae Young. You think herro who's 6'5" 200lbs is bad on defense and gets bullied and is streaky and overpaid?
Wait until you get a 6ft 165lb Trae Young making the max. Imagine that guy playing vs OKC or MIN or BOS... what a disaster. I just don't get it. I want no part of small offense only defensive liability guards making max and thinking they'd somehow get us over the hump.

Rozier makes 25M and he's a good 6th man and regular season dude and can score in bunches and tries much harder on defense than trae does. That's about as much exposure to that as a roster can handle.

Forget trae. The nba is moving on from dudes like that. Look how exposed Garland has been this year. Kyrie gave Harden problems all series. Look how exposed Herro was vs Boston. SGA is small but the dude leads the league in steals. Jrue constant all defense team type guy. Dumping herro and assets to get trae is ridiculous to me.

Sorry for rant but I'm very anti Trae xoxo

Trae vs the Thunder: 25-4-10

Celtics: 26-3-8

Wolves: 31-5-10

We should be hype for an Trae Young acquisition, he’s had some postseason success as well. Hes a top offensive talent in the league

Trae isn't my favorite and I'm def leery of tying our future to such a small guard with no defense. But, I'm still open to it. We legitimately would need every other player in a playoff rotation to be a plus on defense. No more just having Bam play defense for 40% of the team.

[VaDe255]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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Playoffs:

Herro: 16.8 ppg
Bam: 22.6 ppg

Please stop it we are in 2024 and advanced stats and analytics exit ^^
Bam and Herro both were absolutely awful offensively, yeah Bam got you 22.6 ppg on 53.2% TS. He took all those contested middies (a lot early in the shot clock too)
Herro on 51% TS was awful as well, I liked his shot profile 55% of his shots were 3s and quite a few at the rim (only 20.5% at 10ft+), nice progression compared to earlier in the season, where he was taking middies too much. Still missed many shots he normally makes, very dissapointing.

All both have proove this year is that they are not a #1 option on offense at their current level. I guess Bam is excused because of his defense, but don't try to make him look like someone he is not.

[AirP.]

I'm having a hard time figuring out how Miami brain trust can expect its offense to become better with both Rozier and Herro in the starting lineup, instead of having 1 low efficient higher volume scorer, they'll have 2.

This season Miami had a team TS% of .578 and a calculated ORTG of 114.

Herro and Rozier pulled Miami's offense down even though they scored points, they just made the team less efficient on offense.

Heat TS% .578, ORTG 114 (this is with Herro and Rozier's stats pulling them down some)
Herro TS% .558, ORTG 108
Rozier TS% .531, ORTG 111

* Rozier's stats are just in Miami and his first few weeks without practices pulled his number way down.

Rozier
March TS% .542, ORTG 111
April TS% .642, ORTG 119 <- Only 5 games.

I guess it's possible that with more on court positions being a threat could make everyone have easier shots overall and could make some players more efficient, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. I have to think one of them has to be moved (or put to 6th man like Riley mentioned) and since they gave up a 1st for Rozier, I highly doubt they'd move him, it would have to be looked at as a horrible trade, not only giving up a ton of expiring cap space but a 1st rounder too.

[greg4012]

Let's take the monthly look at Bam and Herro progession

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Playoffs:

Herro: 16.8 ppg
Bam: 22.6 ppg

Please stop it we are in 2024 and advanced stats and analytics exit ^^
Bam and Herro both were absolutely awful offensively, yeah Bam got you 22.6 ppg on 53.2% TS. He took all those contested middies (a lot early in the shot clock too)
Herro on 51% TS was awful as well, I liked his shot profile 55% of his shots were 3s and quite a few at the rim (only 20.5% at 10ft+), nice progression compared to earlier in the season, where he was taking middies too much. Still missed many shots he normally makes, very dissapointing.

All both have proove this year is that they are not a #1 option on offense at their current level. I guess Bam is excused because of his defense, but don't try to make him look like someone he is not.

What do I have to stop?