Full-scale Rebuild

[th87]

In the NBA, you can't win without a superstar (As pressey has shown us). Every recent championship team, except the Detroit Pistons, has employed a blue-chip superstar.

Who do the Bucks have as their best players?

1. Michael Redd
2. Yi Jianlian
3. Andrew Bogut

Redd is certainly our best player, but he'll never reach the echelon of Kobe, Lebron, or Wade. Consequently, he's a great second-option making first-option money. Somewhat like a Ginobili or Josh Howard, except they have superstars supporting them.

Yi, if his age is indeed 20, has the best potential to break out and become a transcendent superstar.

Bogut has the physical tools to be a top center. It's just his mental makeup isn't all there, and he needs to devote extreme amounts of practice time to improve his game. He can still become a Brad Daugherty-type center - but a whole lot has to go right. No guarantees there.

So the only players worth keeping are Yi and Bogut. I advocate trading Redd for expirings and draft picks. No pseudo-stars. Let's completely blow it up and start from scratch. During this time, I'd like to see the ball go to Bogut and Yi on every possession. Not that it'd be particularly effective right away, but it would provide them an unprecedented level of on-the-job training. Depend on them completely. See if they have what it takes.

This will likely result in lots of losses. That's fine - we can try to reload in the lottery. If we are so (un)fortunate, we get our chance at say, Derrick Rose, for example - a player with a chance to be that transcendent superstar we need.

If it works out that way, Bogut and Yi will already be developed, and this new potential superstar can be worked into the team. If this doesn't work out, and say, Bogut for example doesn't pan out, it'd be time to give up on him, force-feed Rose and Yi (in this example), and try to reload once again.

Repeat this process until we have our superstar.

The problem with our team is that we've been mediocre for so long, we just haven't been able to rebuild. We've gotten midlevel picks, and are stuck with our good, but not great players. How can a team improve by just treading water? We need our "darkness before the dawn" instead of dwelling in NBA purgatory.

[th87]

I think this is different from the usual "Trade Redd" threads (so don't lock it, please!) because it doesn't advocate a simple trade to fix our ills - it's a "big picture" view of our best chance to be contenders in the future. And that would be to start from scratch.

Most of the proposed trades here are for Redd-level stars. Now I'm thinking McGrady, Jefferson, etc. will leave us in the same place for years to come. NBA purgatory. Deferring to new pseudo-stars will stunt Bogut and Yi's growth, and the only way for a player to become a superstar is if they are depended on to be one. That's why Durant gets to chuck all day. That's why Lebron and Wade were able to develop. They never really had to defer. Bogut and Yi do.

With Redd, or Jefferson, or Carter, we'd largely have the same ceiling. Upper 40 wins, and no real chance for contention. Lots of money for mediocrity, and Bogut and Yi don't get to develop fully.

That's why sitting in NBA Hell for a while might be the ticket. It gives us the ONLY chance at a superstar to take us to NBA Heaven.

If we're going to trade Redd, let it be for a full-on rebuilding, and not for a band-aid on a ship that won't get us anywhere anyway.

[InsideOut]

I agree with you 100%. I feel our only hope is to blow it up and build threw the draft. Until someone tells me how we overcome these historical Bucks problems, I just don't see any other option.


1). Great free agents won't come here and play.

2). Great players don't want to be traded here and the last one that was couldn't get out of town fast enough.

3). We don't exactly have a load of trade bait or expiring contracts that anyone would want.

4). According to GAD, our owner (correct me if I'm wrong) won't let LH pull the trigger on a trade for a player with a big contract. Most good players have big contracts and if they are still on a small contract there is no way the other team would want to trade them for our high priced crap.

5). We could trade draft picks but to get anyone good we'd need to trade high picks and to get those high picks we'd need to stink anyway. This also doesn't solve the problem that great players won't want to be traded here and may leave the first chance they get. Besides, if all a #5 pick gets you is a SG in Ray Allen (still good but on the decline and with iffy ankles) then I can't see why you'd want to trade the pick in the first place.

[paul]

I'm not necessarily an advocate of blowing it up, but i am definitely an advocate of force feeding Yi and Bogut on offense, every single slow play up the court, particularly if we've lost hope in this team having a future. I agree developing these two bigs is our best hope of having a succesful longterm future at this point, and that they are currently being given limited chance to develop due to not being a focus on offense. We are losing anyway, doing this will cause more shot term pain but the difference is it will be pain with a goal in mind, the development of our two best prospects. If at the end of the season, mid next season or whenever the designated point is these two haven't shown any development, ship them out the door and try again if you have to, or keep them as pieces and add through the draft (or try to get lucky with FA's).
At least by that point we will know whether our two young bigs are capable of doing the job, and the pain will have been for a reason rather than continuing to wallow in mediocrity.

I did say i'm not necessarily a fan of blowing it up, however unfotunately i think that the only way the above happens is without Redd and or Mo on the team, because i can't see them deferring to the bigs.

[paulpressey25]

The problem with blowing it up is that we might be looking at a five year rebuilding project that we can't afford giving the slipping fan base and arena issues.

This team is hanging on by virtue of fans from the 70's and 80's who are getting older and then a second subset of younger guys who came of age during the Big-Three period.

It might be that a total tank and hope we get a LeBron type is our only hope here.....

But I think the fans responded really well to the 2003-04 team that was exciting and played hard.....but maybe part of that was still a byproduct of the 2001 team that is long gone.

No easy answers....

[Mo25]

Something like that could take years. I dont think the Bucks fans will have it in them to wait that long. Redd should be the first to go. I think Bucks fans are getting tired of all these overrated guards all these years. They want to go back to when the fowards were the focal point of their team.

[Newz]

The only problem with your list of our best players is that Mo Williams is our second best player next to Redd... With Bogut being the third and Yi being the 4th.

[Epicurus]

Paul, forcefeeding Bogut and Yi could possibly be the worst thing for both the players and the franchise. Do you really believe that a series of professional coaches and observers can't observe from practices and previous games the capacity at present of young players? Do you believe that some character will be formed by being made to look ridiculous in front of 1000s?

[wichmae]

If an entire tear down is what is on our horizon it needs to be done actually getting young potential back. I know Minny is the worst team in the NBA right now but they actually have some really nice pieces to build with.

Epi is right force feeding guys wont make them succeed any faster. Though realizing that the current crew of players isn't going win anything may be the best presumption yet.


TH87 I am on board with your thoughts to some degree. I think if you move everyone out an start anew you need to get good value back. By good value I mean young players to grow as a team. If I was in the position of LH I and I wanted to tear it down and rebuild I keep Mo, Drew, Yi, Ramon, possibly Noel, and bring Ersan back over.
Terry last year did more with a vastly inferior team. At least we could watch entertaining ball and not a blow out on a nightly basis. A decision is going to have to be made soon here.

Does it tore down? or do we continue with mediocrity.

I think if you move out all these older guys and inject a bunch of youth the team may attract some fans with a fun brand of ball. The reason why alot of fans are so sour right now (not us I mean casual fans) is because of the blowouts and complete lack of entertainment.

[Ruben Quevedo]

Bogut has the physical tools to be a top center. It's just his mental makeup isn't all there, and he needs to devote extreme amounts of practice time to improve his game.

Bogut has no post moves and no range on his jumper...he is a slightly above average rebounder and average defender (those are non-statistical observations on my part) and his passing skills are negated by his propensity to turn it over....considering his lack of athleticism and lack of consistent aggression, I'm not seeing how he has the tools to be a top center. Also, mental makeup is a skill or talent like anything else...in the same way one cannot magically develop a jump shot or low post game, one cannot suddenly become mentally tough. I doubt he manages to significantly improve in either case.

So in the context of your main point....i don't consider bogut a building block.

[th87]

The problem with blowing it up is that we might be looking at a five year rebuilding project that we can't afford giving the slipping fan base and arena issues.

This team is hanging on by virtue of fans from the 70's and 80's who are getting older and then a second subset of younger guys who came of age during the Big-Three period.

It might be that a total tank and hope we get a LeBron type is our only hope here.....

But I think the fans responded really well to the 2003-04 team that was exciting and played hard.....but maybe part of that was still a byproduct of the 2001 team that is long gone.

No easy answers....

I agree that the profitability and new stadium factors are the main issues. Kohl doesn't want to preside over a loser and incur financial losses any longer. That will prevent us from becoming really good.

But with our current trajectory, the fan base is dwindling anyway. Nobody cares about the Bucks as much as they do about the Brewers (even though they've been equally sucky, if not more). If we blow it up and rebuild, the people who go to games now (us) will still be going to the games during the rebuild, since we're the diehards. So there really isn't much to lose.

If we happen to luck out with a Lebron-type, the fairweather fans will come back. I'd aim for that possibility, rather than getting a slight few more fans, but then getting killed in the playoffs every year.

[th87]

Paul, forcefeeding Bogut and Yi could possibly be the worst thing for both the players and the franchise. Do you really believe that a series of professional coaches and observers can't observe from practices and previous games the capacity at present of young players? Do you believe that some character will be formed by being made to look ridiculous in front of 1000s?

What's the worst that could happen? A lot of people thrive in a sink or swim environment. I'm thinking Bogut would get a lot of "practice" reps against real opposition. This might cause him to diversify his moves, figure out new ways to score/pass/play defense, and de-sensitize him to his fears of playing against top centers.

[kebzach]

-= original quote snipped =-



Bogut has no post moves and no range on his jumper...he is a slightly above average rebounder and average defender (those are non-statistical observations on my part) and his passing skills are negated by his propensity to turn it over....considering his lack of athleticism and lack of consistent aggression, I'm not seeing how he has the tools to be a top center. Also, mental makeup is a skill or talent like anything else...in the same way one cannot magically develop a jump shot or low post game, one cannot suddenly become mentally tough. I doubt he manages to significantly improve in either case.

So in the context of your main point....i don't consider bogut a building block.

I would agree with this. Bogut is a complementary piece, a #3 option on a team. He's not someone to anchor the rest of the lineup around.

[th87]

Wichmae - Do you think we can develop a lot of young guys simultaneously? I think that might be tougher, since everyone will need opportunities to grow.

Hizmi - I think things like mental makeup can be improved, if given the proper effort. Will Bogut do that? That's what we don't know. Maybe Bogut's immature right now and needs to grow up. Maybe he's a pouter and needs to make friends. I'd give it two more years to see if he makes improvements. If not, he's out.

[th87]

A quick thought - didn't the Brewers follow this model? They let go of overpaid talent, and load up on young prospects, and reload in the draft. If the goal is to win a championship, we HAVE to find a Lebron.

Thoughts?

[paul]

Paul, forcefeeding Bogut and Yi could possibly be the worst thing for both the players and the franchise. Do you really believe that a series of professional coaches and observers can't observe from practices and previous games the capacity at present of young players? Do you believe that some character will be formed by being made to look ridiculous in front of 1000s?

Epi maybe my phrasing of 'force feeding' was bit strong. What i mean is constantly running plays for these guys, particularly bogut at this point as Yi should be allowed to mature further before putting that pressure on him, although he should be slightly more involved.

What I'm talking about Epi is exactly what happened in the Charlotte game this evening. I don't mean the results, Bogut was outstanding tonight and clearly won't always be, i mean the team philosophy. It was very clear that our offensive philosophy tonight was much more centered around the post than at any other stage this season, and fortunately tonight we got the result. That won't always happen, there are times in the post when Bogut still looks awkward, however my point is that the more this happens, the more confident bogut will become about his place in the team pecking order, the more 'on the job' training he will receive, the more he will develop. If it doesn't go that way as you say and he loses confidence then at worst we've still got a solid center who we know is never going to develop into a star, but at least we know. If we try it and lose, well it's not like we're winning now, i'd rather lose while trying to develop our young talent.

I know this all sounds easy for me because bogut looked so good tonight, but i'm not basing this on a one game sample, and have been consistantly saying it for quite a while now (including a bit of a rant after the last game - Washington - about the 5 minute spell that we went to bogut on offense and it worked). This team is far more effective when it bases it's offense on an inside out game imo, as are most teams, there's still plenty of room for Redd's shooting but 'early clock' outside jumpshooting should not be our primary focus. We look far more effective to me when we hit the post, and this has the double benefit of also helping to develop our #1 pick.

As far as the staff not knowing his abilities from practices and games, one of our 'insiders' on the board tells us Bogut is a monster at practice and looks far better when he's involved more than he does in games, although of course i can't verify this.